Try the model
SHSU

Sam Houston 23 at Western Kentucky 28

WKU
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadSHSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreSHSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:08 · Austin Reed pass incomplete to Craig Burt Jr.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 130Pregame prior+6.5Home team on offense−0.5Garbage-time factor−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Score differential−1.8Blowout margin−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:21: Adrian Murdaugh run for 1 yd for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK) — SHSU win probability +9.3 pts (now 40%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:06: Markese Stepp run for 3 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — WKU win probability +8.6 pts (now 73%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:49: Austin Reed pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 26 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — WKU win probability +8.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:13: John Gentry run for 7 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK) — SHSU win probability +19.5 pts (now 45%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:53: Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 75 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — WKU win probability +21.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5SHSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 11:41SHSU 4th & 9 at SHSU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:39SHSU 4th & 8 at SHSU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:57WKU 4th & 2 at WKU 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.8%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:26SHSU 4th & 3 at SHSU 10, down 7
    Close callPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:21SHSU 4th & 1 at WKU 1, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    26.5%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    23.5%−4.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:07SHSU 4th & 20 at SHSU 40, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−1.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:26SHSU 4th & 5 at SHSU 20, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:59WKU 4th & 6 at WKU 45, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:38SHSU 4th & 11 at SHSU 23, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%−4.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:17SHSU 4th & 11 at WKU 42, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.9
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    42.7%−1.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:08WKU 4th & 4 at SHSU 45, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    54.7%−5.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    57.8%−2.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:51SHSU 4th & 3 at WKU 48, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%−2.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:34WKU 4th & 5 at SHSU 31, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    78.3%−0.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−2.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:42SHSU 4th & 4 at WKU 21, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    24.1%−0.3
    74% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−12.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:28WKU 4th & 11 at WKU 25, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%−3.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:28SHSU 4th & 6 at WKU 29, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    19.3%−0.6
    58% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−9.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:38SHSU 4th & 8 at WKU 8, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.6%
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    11.6%−12.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−16.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4SHSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:32WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:31SHSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    26.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:21SHSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:06WKU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:49WKU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:13SHSU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:53WKU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.3%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1INT
4 plays · 45 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+39
73.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 39 yds to the SHSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
73.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 2 yds to the SHSU 28Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+4
73.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 4 yds to the SHSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 2:1926% → 27%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
73.6%
John Gentry run for 2 yds to the SHSU 16Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+1
73.6%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 1 yd to the SHSU 15Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 9
OWN 15
0
73.6%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Malik PhillipsSimilar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 9
OWN 15
+6
73.3%
Jadon Cardell punt for 48 yds , K.D. Hutchinson returns for 6 yds to the WKU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 2:0973% → 75%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
73.4%
Elijah Young run for 2 yds to the WKU 45Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+7
73.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 7 yds to the SHSU 48Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+3
73.4%
Elijah Young run for 3 yds to the SHSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
74.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 45 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:5326% → 25%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to John GentrySimilar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.3%
Noah Smith run for 2 yds to the SHSU 27Similar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
74.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Al'vonte WoodardSimilar
Q1 8:39
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
74.6%
Jadon Cardell punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 4:4274% → 75%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
74.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 6 yds to the WKU 12Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+2
74.2%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 2 yds to the WKU 14Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+8
74.0%
Elijah Young run for 8 yds to the WKU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
74.1%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Trevor BorlandSimilar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
74.0%
Markese Stepp run for 3 yds to the WKU 25Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+11
73.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 11 yds to the WKU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
74.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 4 yds to the WKU 40Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+4
74.4%
Elijah Young run for 4 yds to the WKU 44Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
74.5%
Elijah Young run for no gain to the WKU 44Similar
Q1 3:57
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
74.6%
Cory Munson punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3125% → 25%
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
74.7%
John Gentry run for 4 yds to the SHSU 7Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+3
74.8%
John Gentry run for 3 yds to the SHSU 10Similar
Q1 3:57
3RD & 3
OWN 10
0
75.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Al'vonte WoodardSimilar
Q1 2:26
4TH & 3
OWN 10
+11
75.1%
Jadon Cardell punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SHSU 41 , K.D. Hutchinson returns for 11 yds to the SHSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:5376% → 75%
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
75.6%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Craig Burt Jr.Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
75.5%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 2 yds to the SHSU 43Similar
Q1 1:33
3RD & 12
OPP 43
0
74.8%
Austin Reed pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 8TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 2:0226% → 29%
Q1 1:33
1ST & 15
OWN 5
0
74.5%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Jax SherrardSimilar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 15
OWN 5
+3
74.7%
John Gentry run for 3 yds to the SHSU 8Similar
Q1 1:33
3RD & 12
OWN 8
+14
75.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 14 yds to the SHSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
74.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Lonnie AdksimSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+31
74.6%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to John Gentry for 31 yds to the WKU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
73.1%
Noah Smith run for 5 yds to the WKU 42Similar
Q2 14:31
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+42
69.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 42 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums PAT MISSED)Similar
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
70.6%
PENALTY WKU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Benjamin,Sebastian) 15 yards from SHS35 to SHS50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · 23 yds · 1:1071% → 73%
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
71.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 2 yds to the WKU 27Similar
Q2 14:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+17
71.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 17 yds to the WKU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
72.6%
Austin Reed run for 11 yds to the WKU 48 Austin Reed fumbled, recovered by SHSU Emon Allen No Huddle-Shotgun Reed,Austin rush middle for 11 yards loss to the WKU48 fumbled by Reed,Austin at SHS47 recovered by SHS Allen,Emon at WKU48, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 10TD
11 plays · 48 yds · 4:0031% → 40%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
69.2%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 14 yds to the WKU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
68.7%
Adrian Murdaugh run for 2 yds to the WKU 32Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+1
68.7%
Adrian Murdaugh run for 1 yd to the WKU 31Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+10
69.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Shoemaker,Keegan pass incomplete deep right to Phillips,Malik QB hurried by Davis,Kenyonte PENALTY WKU Holding (Williams,Takulve) 10 yards from WKU31 to WKU21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
68.5%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Noah SmithSimilar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+9
68.6%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for 9 yds to the WKU 12Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+3
69.0%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 3 yds to the WKU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
68.5%
John Gentry run for 8 yds to the WKU 1Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
68.5%
John Gentry run for no gain to the WKU 1Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
69.0%
Issiah Nixon run for no gain to the WKU 1Similar
Q2 9:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.7%
Adrian Murdaugh run for 1 yd for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 3:0463% → 73%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
63.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 13 yds to the SHSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
63.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 1 yd to the SHSU 45Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+7
63.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 7 yds to the SHSU 38Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+4
63.5%
Austin Reed run for 4 yds to the SHSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+31
64.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 31 yds to the SHSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
73.3%
Markese Stepp run for 3 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 3:5430% → 30%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
69.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 7 yds to the SHSU 28Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+10
68.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Jax Sherrard for 10 yds to the SHSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
68.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 5 yds to the SHSU 43Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+7
67.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Thomas Jewett for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
50
+3
67.2%
John Gentry run for 3 yds to the SHSU 47Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 13
OWN 47
+3
68.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:53
3RD & 10
50
-10
67.4%
Keegan Shoemaker sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the SHSU 40Similar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 20
OWN 40
0
69.9%
Jadon Cardell punt for 35 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:1870% → 81%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
69.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Elijah Young for 20 yds to the WKU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
71.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 9 yds to the SHSU 46Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+6
72.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 6 yds to the SHSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
72.4%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Craig Burt Jr.Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
72.2%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 6 yds to the SHSU 34Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+8
72.1%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 8 yds to the SHSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
80.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 26 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 14FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 0:4922% → 29%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
78.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to John Gentry for 4 yds to the SHSU 29Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
77.6%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 14 yds to the SHSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
76.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to John Gentry for 6 yds to the SHSU 49Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
75.6%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Jax SherrardSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+5
75.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Shoemaker,Keegan pass incomplete deep right to Phillips,Malik broken up by Johnson, Jr.,Anthony PENALTY WKU Offside (Cooper,Niko) 5 yards from SHS49 to WKU46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
75.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 11 yds to the WKU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+53
70.8%
Colby Sessums 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2828% → 26%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
72.4%
John Gentry run for 3 yds to the SHSU 18Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+2
72.4%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 2 yds to the SHSU 20Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
73.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Malik PhillipsSimilar
Q3 13:26
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
74.0%
Jadon Cardell punt for 44 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 16INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:0975% → 75%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
74.9%
Elijah Young run for 2 yds to the WKU 38Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+4
75.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Trevor Borland for 4 yds to the WKU 42Similar
Q3 12:17
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
74.8%
Austin Reed pass intercepted Da'Marcus Crosby return for no gain to the WKU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 17TD
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q3 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
55.2%
John Gentry run for 7 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 3:0661% → 59%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
61.0%
Markese Stepp run for 3 yds to the WKU 13Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 13
OWN 13
+2
60.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 2 yds to the WKU 15Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 11
OWN 15
+26
59.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 26 yds to the WKU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
63.8%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to K.D. HutchinsonSimilar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
62.3%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for no gain to the WKU 41Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+4
61.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 4 yds to the WKU 45Similar
Q3 8:59
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
58.8%
Cory Munson punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:2141% → 40%
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
58.9%
John Gentry run for 3 yds to the SHSU 7Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 7
OWN 7
0
59.2%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Noah SmithSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
58.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Al'vonte WoodardSimilar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+5
58.5%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 5 yds to the SHSU 29Similar
Q3 8:59
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+6
58.7%
Western Kentucky Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Kendrick Simpkins) to the SHSU 23Similar
Q3 6:38
4TH & 11
OWN 23
+18
59.6%
Jadon Cardell punt for 44 yds , K.D. Hutchinson returns for 18 yds to the SHSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 20INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
62.8%
Austin Reed pass intercepted Caleb Weaver return for no gain to the SHSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:1145% → 45%
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
55.3%
John Gentry run for 2 yds to the SHSU 38Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+6
54.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Thomas Jewett for 6 yds to the SHSU 44Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+15
54.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 15 yds to the WKU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
53.2%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 1 yd to the WKU 42Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 11
OPP 42
0
53.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Malik PhillipsSimilar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 11
OPP 42
0
54.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Lonnie AdksimSimilar
Q3 4:17
4TH & 11
OPP 42
0
55.2%
Jadon Cardell punt for 26 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 39 yds · 3:0957% → 57%
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
56.7%
Elijah Young run for 3 yds to the WKU 19Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 7
OWN 19
0
56.5%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q3 4:17
3RD & 7
OWN 19
+17
54.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 17 yds to the WKU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
58.2%
Elijah Young run for 13 yds to the WKU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
61.0%
Elijah Young run for 2 yds to the SHSU 49Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+4
61.4%
Austin Reed run for 4 yds to the SHSU 45Similar
Q3 4:17
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
61.0%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Trevor BorlandSimilar
Q3 1:08
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
57.1%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Craig Burt Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1750% → 51%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+9
50.5%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 9 yds to the SHSU 44Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 11
OWN 44
0
48.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Noah SmithSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+8
49.4%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 8 yds to the WKU 48Similar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
49.1%
Keegan Shoemaker punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 24TD
7 plays · 99 yds · 2:5854% → 77%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+8
54.3%
Elijah Young run for 8 yds to the WKU 9Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 2
OWN 9
+2
54.1%
Elijah Young run for 2 yds to the WKU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
54.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for no gain to the WKU 11Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+6
54.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 6 yds to the WKU 17Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+5
53.0%
Austin Reed run for 5 yds to the WKU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
55.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to K.D. Hutchinson for 3 yds to the WKU 25Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+75
76.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 75 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 25INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
71.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 26DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0881% → 79%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
81.2%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 2 yds to the SHSU 34Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+1
82.0%
Elijah Young run for 1 yd to the SHSU 35Similar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+4
80.3%
Elijah Young run for 4 yds to the SHSU 31Similar
Q4 9:34
4TH & 5
OPP 31
0
78.9%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Craig Burt Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 27FUMBLE
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:4230% → 25%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
70.1%
John Gentry run for 4 yds to the SHSU 35Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+8
69.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 8 yds to the SHSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
67.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Jax Sherrard for 15 yds to the WKU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
65.2%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 5 yds to the WKU 37Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+10
64.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 10 yds to the WKU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
62.8%
John Gentry run for 1 yd to the WKU 26Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+5
63.5%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 5 yds to the WKU 21Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 4
OPP 21
0
77.5%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Noah SmithSimilar
Q4 5:42
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+5
80.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 5 yds to the WKU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
75.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Adrian Murdaugh for 2 yds Adrian Murdaugh fumbled, recovered by WKU Anthony Johnson Jr. No Huddle-Shotgun Shoemaker,Keegan pass complete short left to Murdaugh,Adrian for 2 yards to the WKU14 fumbled by Murdaugh,Adrian at WKU19 forced by Patterson,Marcus recovered by WKU Johnson, Jr.,Anthony at WKU14 Johnson, Jr.,Anthony return 2 yards to the WKU16 (Patton,D'Ary).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 28PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 2:2487% → 90%
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
87.0%
Markese Stepp run for 5 yds to the WKU 21Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 5
OWN 21
0
87.2%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Elijah YoungSimilar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+5
85.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 5 yds to the WKU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
87.3%
Elijah Young run for 2 yds to the WKU 28Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+3
89.9%
Elijah Young run for 3 yds to the WKU 31Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 5
OWN 31
-6
90.3%
Austin Reed sacked by Isaiah Downes for a loss of 6 yards to the WKU 25Similar
Q4 2:28
4TH & 11
OWN 25
+25
89.9%
Cory Munson punt for 33 yds , Emon Allen returns for 25 yds to the WKU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 29INT
9 plays · 25 yds · 1:5022% → 16%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
78.5%
John Gentry run for 2 yds to the WKU 31Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+2
78.5%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to MarKendrick Beall for 2 yds to the WKU 29Similar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 6
OPP 29
0
81.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Al'vonte WoodardSimilar
Q4 2:28
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+19
83.9%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 19 yds to the WKU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
76.4%
John Gentry run for 2 yds to the WKU 8Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
76.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Al'vonte WoodardSimilar
Q4 1:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
79.5%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incomplete to Malik PhillipsSimilar
Q4 0:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
0
83.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 30Uncategorized
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
95.3%
A. Reed takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:53
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 75 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
+21.6
TD · Q3 12:13
John Gentry run for 7 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK)
-19.5
TD · Q2 9:21
Adrian Murdaugh run for 1 yd for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK)
-9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com