2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
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View as
Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadSHU aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreSHU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:02 · Sam Renzi 24 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 8:50: Joe McFadden 50 yd FG GOOD — SHU win probability +1.1 pts (now 7%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:38: Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Justin Joly for 12 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK) — CONN win probability +2.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- FG · Q2 2:02: Sam Renzi 24 yd FG GOOD — SHU win probability +1.2 pts (now 7%) (top driver: SHU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:55: Ta'Quan Roberson pass incomplete — CONN win probability +1.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:17: Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Kylish Hicks for 14 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK) — CONN win probability +3.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 6 of 8SHU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
- Q1 13:15SHU 4th & 5 at SHU 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snapGo for it6.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.2%average punt
- Q1 8:50CONN 4th & 14 at SHU 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.7% before the snapGo for it92.6%−0.119% to convertField goalTheir call92.7%51% to makePunt92.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:55SHU 4th & 7 at SHU 28, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snapGo for it7.1%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.2%average punt
- Q1 4:17SHU 4th & 8 at SHU 17, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snapGo for it7.1%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%average punt
- Q1 1:28CONN 4th & 1 at SHU 16, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.3%71% to convertField goal91.9%−0.481% to makePunt90.6%−1.7average punt
- Q2 14:17SHU 4th & 10 at SHU 25, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snapGo for it5.3%−0.528% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.8%average punt
- Q2 12:50CONN 4th & 3 at CONN 40, up 17Close callPunted · 94.7% before the snapGo for it94.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 11:03SHU 4th & 3 at SHU 47, down 17Close callPunted · 5.6% before the snapGo for it5.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.5%−0.3average punt
- Q2 7:18CONN 4th & 5 at CONN 31, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snapGo for it94.5%−0.441% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.9%average punt
- Q2 2:02SHU 4th & 4 at CONN 7, down 17Close callKicked a field goal · 6.2% before the snapGo for it6.0%41% to convertField goalTheir call5.8%−0.391% to makePunt3.2%−2.8average punt
- Q3 10:46CONN 4th & 10 at SHU 35, up 21Close callPunted · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.5%−<0.130% to convertField goal97.6%45% to makePuntTheir call97.4%−0.1average punt
- Q3 7:29SHU 4th & 12 at SHU 39, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.423% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
- Q3 6:37CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 25, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snapGo for it97.7%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.9%average punt
- Q3 2:10SHU 4th & 17 at CONN 37, down 21Close callPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.4%−0.315% to convertField goal1.7%40% to makePuntTheir call1.7%−0.1average punt
- Q4 15:00CONN 4th & 2 at SHU 33, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.7%57% to convertField goal98.5%−0.349% to makePunt98.3%−0.4average punt
- Q4 11:53CONN 4th & 10 at SHU 24, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snapGo for it98.8%−0.128% to convertField goalTheir call99.0%68% to makePunt98.2%−0.7average punt
- Q4 10:27SHU 4th & 3 at SHU 31, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it1.0%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q4 5:37SHU 4th & 1 at SHU 47, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 5:45CONN Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.9%97% to makeGo for two92.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:38CONN Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.3%97% to makeGo for two93.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:17CONN Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.6%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:37CONN Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSHUDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:456% → 6%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 2FG8 plays · 30 yds · 4:2594% → 93%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
93.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Camryn Edwards for 1 yd to the CONN 39Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+13
93.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Geordon Porter for 13 yds to the SHU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
93.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Justin Joly for 5 yds to the SHU 23Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 12
OPP 30
-2
93.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Rosa for a loss of 2 yards to the SHU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:557% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 4TD4 plays · 68 yds · 2:1093% → 93%
SHUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:237% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 6TD7 plays · 35 yds · 3:3993% → 95%
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
95.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Justin Joly for 12 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:216% → 5%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+4
94.6%
Rob McCoy pass complete to Kevin McGuire for 4 yds to the SHU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2795% → 95%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
95.0%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Jalen Mitchell for 7 yds to the CONN 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 34 yds · 1:476% → 6%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 3:4595% → 95%
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
95.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Justin Joly for 5 yds to the CONN 14Similar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+10
95.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Geordon Porter for 10 yds to the CONN 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
95.3%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Cameron Ross for 1 yd to the CONN 27Similar
Q2 7:18
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
94.9%
George Caratan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Nick Foglia at the SHU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHUDrive 11FG14 plays · 68 yds · 5:166% → 7%
Q2 7:18
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+13
94.4%
Rob McCoy pass complete to Malik Grant for 13 yds to the SHU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+26
94.2%
Rob McCoy pass complete to Aboraa Kwarteng for 26 yds to the CONN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+14
93.6%
Rob McCoy pass complete to Kevin McGuire for 14 yds to the CONN 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 12TD16 plays · 74 yds · 1:3894% → 98%
Q2 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+17
93.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Camryn Edwards for 17 yds to the CONN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+9
94.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Cameron Ross for 9 yds to the SHU 37Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
94.2%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Justin Joly for 4 yds to the SHU 32Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+7
94.1%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Victor Rosa for 7 yds to the SHU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
97.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Kylish Hicks for 14 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHUDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · 7 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.0%
Rob McCoy pass complete to Aboraa Kwarteng for 7 yds to the SHU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 40 yds · 4:1497% → 98%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 29
-6
97.4%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Geordon Porter for a loss of 6 yards to the SHU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHUDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 3:173% → 2%
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
97.4%
Rob McCoy pass complete to Aboraa Kwarteng for 4 yds to the SHU 24Similar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
97.3%
Rob McCoy pass complete to Malik Grant for 11 yds to the SHU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-15
97.3%
MCCOY, Rob pass up the middle incomplete intended for RHOADES, Payton thrown to the UCO50. PENALTY SHU Unnecessary Roughness on PRINCIPATO, Gianni enforced 15 yards from the SHU41 to the SHU26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 25
OWN 26
+1
97.4%
Rob McCoy pass complete to Aboraa Kwarteng for 1 yd to the SHU 27Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 24
OWN 27
+12
97.5%
Rob McCoy pass complete to Ethan Hilliman for 12 yds to the SHU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5298% → 98%
Q3 6:37
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
97.7%
George Caratan punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Dylan Jones at the SHU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHUDrive 17PUNT10 plays · 38 yds · 4:272% → 2%
Q3 6:37
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
97.7%
Rob McCoy pass complete to Xavier Leigh for 10 yds to the SHU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
97.7%
Rob McCoy pass complete to Payton Rhoades for 9 yds to the CONN 49Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+7
97.6%
Rob McCoy pass complete to Aboraa Kwarteng for 7 yds to the CONN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+10
97.7%
MCCOY, Rob pass deep incomplete intended for RHOADES, Payton broken up by MOLETTE III, Lee at the UCO20; QB hurried by MITCHELL, Jackson. PENALTY UCO Holding on SHEARIN, Chris enforced 10 yards from the UCO40 to the UCO30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-18
97.4%
Rob McCoy sacked by Pryce Yates for a loss of 18 yards to the CONN 48Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 28
OPP 48
-1
97.8%
Rob McCoy pass complete to Xavier Leigh for a loss of 1 yard to the CONN 49Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 29
OPP 49
0
97.8%
Sacred Heart Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Rob McCoy) to the CONN 37Similar
Q3 2:10
4TH & 17
OPP 37
0
98.4%
Andrew Ryczek punt for 8 yds, fair catch by Brett Buckman at the CONN 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 18MISSED FG13 plays · 47 yds · 5:1798% → 99%
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
98.4%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Justin Joly for 8 yds to the CONN 37Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+19
98.8%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Justin Joly for 19 yds to the SHU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
98.9%
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Justin Joly for no gain to the SHU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:261% → 1%
Q4 11:53
3RD & 13
OWN 21
+10
99.1%
Rob McCoy pass complete to Payton Rhoades for 10 yds to the SHU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 20TD10 plays · 67 yds · 4:5099% → 100%
SHUDrive 21END OF GAME10 plays · 36 yds · 5:370% → 0%
Q4 5:37
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+5
99.9%
Rob McCoy pass complete to Payton Rhoades for 5 yds to the SHU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:17
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Kylish Hicks for 14 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)
+3.2
TD · Q1 0:38
Ta'Quan Roberson pass complete to Justin Joly for 12 yds for a TD (Joe McFadden KICK)
+2.4
FG · Q2 2:02
Sam Renzi 24 yd FG GOOD
-1.2