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ACU

Abilene Christian 10 at Texas A&M 38

TA&M
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadACU aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreACU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:32 · Nik Constantinou punt for 43 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Pregame prior+36.5Home team on offense+9.0Score differential+1.3Garbage-time factor+4.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0Blowout margin−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 7:59: Randy Bond 34 yd FG GOOD — ACU win probability +0.3 pts (now 4%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:26: Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Noah Thomas for 13 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK) — TA&M win probability +1.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:39: Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 49 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK) — TA&M win probability +1.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 14:06: Kyle Ramsey 40 yd FG GOOD — ACU win probability +1.6 pts (now 4%) (top driver: ACU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:25: David Bailey run for 3 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK) — TA&M win probability +2.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ACU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 13:40ACU 4th & 10 at ACU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:38ACU 4th & 5 at ACU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:34TA&M 4th & 27 at TA&M 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:29ACU 4th & 2 at ACU 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:40TA&M 4th & 8 at TA&M 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:31ACU 4th & 8 at TA&M 37, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.7%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:17TA&M 4th & 6 at TA&M 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:03ACU 4th & 3 at ACU 14, tied
    Close callPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:59TA&M 4th & 7 at ACU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    94.0%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:03ACU 4th & 6 at ACU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:57ACU 4th & 10 at ACU 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:32TA&M 4th & 16 at TA&M 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:15ACU 4th & 4 at TA&M 48, down 17
    Close callPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:08TA&M 4th & 15 at TA&M 45, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:06ACU 4th & 11 at TA&M 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−2.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:01TA&M 4th & 3 at TA&M 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:00ACU 4th & 12 at ACU 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:29ACU 4th & 6 at ACU 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ACU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:04ACU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:20TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:26TA&M Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:39TA&M Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:25TA&M Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:56TA&M Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ACUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:141% → 1%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
98.8%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Blayne Taylor for 10 yds to the ACU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
98.8%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
98.8%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
98.8%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:40
4TH & 10
OWN 31
+12
98.7%
Grant Nickel punt for 36 yds , Ainias Smith returns for 12 yds to the TA&M 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2INT TD
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:3699% → 99%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
98.7%
Amari Daniels run for 12 yds to the ACU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-51
98.6%
Jaylen Henderson pass intercepted Cirby Coheley return for 51 yds for a TD (Grant Nickel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:4499% → 98%
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.6%
Rueben Owens run for 3 yds to the TA&M 28Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
98.6%
Jaylen Henderson run for 2 yds to the TA&M 30Similar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+40
98.6%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 40 yds to the ACU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
98.6%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Ainias Smith for 18 yds to the ACU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
98.6%
Rueben Owens run for 5 yds to the ACU 7Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
98.4%
R. Owens run for 7 yds for a TD (R. Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:342% → 2%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
98.4%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Jordon Vaughn for 1 yd to the ACU 28Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+4
98.2%
Jordon Vaughn run for 4 yds to the ACU 32Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
98.2%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:38
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
98.2%
Grant Nickel punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -17 yds · 2:0498% → 98%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
98.2%
Jaylen Henderson sacked by Reese Young for a loss of 2 yards to the TA&M 24Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+1
98.2%
Amari Daniels run for 1 yd to the TA&M 25Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 11
OWN 25
-11
98.2%
Jaylen Henderson sacked by Cirby Coheley for a loss of 11 yards to the TA&M 14Similar
Q1 8:38
4TH & 22
OWN 14
-5
98.2%
Texas A&M Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the TA&M 9Similar
Q1 6:34
4TH & 27
OWN 9
0
97.9%
Nik Constantinou punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:052% → 2%
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
97.9%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Hut Graham for a loss of 4 yards to the ACU 33Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 14
OWN 33
0
97.9%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for no gain to the ACU 33Similar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 14
OWN 33
+12
98.0%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Hut Graham for 12 yds to the ACU 45Similar
Q1 4:29
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
97.6%
Grant Nickel punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TA&M 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4998% → 97%
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
97.7%
Le'Veon Moss run for no gain to the TA&M 13Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+8
97.6%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Evan Stewart for 8 yds to the TA&M 21Similar
Q1 4:29
3RD & 2
OWN 21
-1
97.6%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for a loss of 1 yard to the TA&M 20Similar
Q1 4:29
4TH & 3
OWN 20
-5
97.6%
Texas A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TA&M 15Similar
Q1 2:40
4TH & 8
OWN 15
0
97.3%
Nik Constantinou punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 8MISSED FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 4:093% → 4%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
97.3%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
50
+4
97.2%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Taelyn Williams for 4 yds to the TA&M 46Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+5
97.2%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 5 yds to the TA&M 41Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
97.2%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Jed Castles for 2 yds to the TA&M 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
96.5%
SUNDAY, Jay'Veon rush to the left for no gain to the AM39 (COOPER, Edgerrin), clock 00:00. PENALTY ACU Holding on YANTA, Tay enforced 10 yards from the AM39 to the AM49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+6
96.6%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Hut Graham for 6 yds to the TA&M 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 43
0
96.6%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 43
+6
96.7%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Blayne Taylor for 6 yds to the TA&M 37Similar
Q2 13:31
4TH & 8
OPP 37
+54
96.4%
Kyle Ramsey 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1497% → 96%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
96.7%
Amari Daniels run for 3 yds to the TA&M 40Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+1
96.8%
Jaylen Henderson run for 1 yd to the TA&M 41Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
96.7%
Jaylen Henderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:17
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
96.3%
Nik Constantinou punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:144% → 4%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
96.2%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for no gain to the ACU 7Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+8
96.2%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 8 yds to the ACU 15 Jay'Veon Sunday fumbled, recovered by ACU Jay'Veon Sunday [NHSG] SUNDAY, Jay'Veon rush to the right for a gain of 8 yards, SUNDAY, Jay'Veon fumbled at ACU15 forced by RAIKES, Isaiah, recovered by ACU SUNDAY, Jay'Veon at the ACU15, returned 0 yards to the ACU15, End of Play.Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 2
OWN 15
-1
96.2%
Jordon Vaughn run for a loss of 1 yard to the ACU 14Similar
Q2 10:03
4TH & 3
OWN 14
0
95.8%
Grant Nickel punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11FG
6 plays · 33 yds · 2:0496% → 96%
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
50
+2
96.1%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Ainias Smith for 2 yds to the ACU 48Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+28
96.1%
Rueben Owens run for 28 yds to the ACU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
96.2%
Rueben Owens run for 4 yds to the ACU 16Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 6
OPP 16
-1
96.2%
Rueben Owens run for a loss of 1 yard to the ACU 17Similar
Q2 10:03
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
96.1%
Jaylen Henderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:59
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+34
95.8%
Randy Bond 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:565% → 5%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.5%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
95.5%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+4
95.7%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Hut Graham for 4 yds to the ACU 29Similar
Q2 7:03
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
95.5%
Grant Nickel punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TA&M 25Similar
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
95.4%
HENDERSON, Jaylen pass to the left incomplete intended for THOMAS, Noah thrown to the AM24; QB hurried by LAWSON, Jerry. PENALTY ACU Holding on PLUMLEY, Dorian enforced 10 yards from the AM25 to the AM35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3796% → 97%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
95.5%
Amari Daniels run for 1 yd to the TA&M 36Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
95.5%
Jaylen Henderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+10
95.2%
Jaylen Henderson run for 10 yds to the TA&M 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
95.6%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Noah Thomas for 6 yds to the ACU 48Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+4
95.6%
Rueben Owens run for 4 yds to the ACU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
95.6%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Rueben Owens for 9 yds to the ACU 35Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+9
95.8%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 9 yds to the ACU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
95.8%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Rueben Owens for 9 yds to the ACU 17Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+4
95.8%
Amari Daniels run for 4 yds to the ACU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
96.8%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Noah Thomas for 13 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:294% → 4%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
96.5%
Jordon Vaughn run for 3 yds to the ACU 38Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+8
96.4%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Tristan Golightly for 8 yds to the ACU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
96.3%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
96.2%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Taelyn Williams for no gain to the ACU 46Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
96.3%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
96.4%
Grant Nickel punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 1:2596% → 96%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
96.0%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Amari Daniels for 3 yds to the TA&M 23Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+9
96.0%
Jaylen Henderson run for 9 yds to the TA&M 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
96.0%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
50
-5
96.3%
Texas A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TA&M 45Similar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 15
OWN 45
0
96.2%
Jaylen Henderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 15
OWN 45
-1
96.0%
Jaylen Henderson sacked by Cirby Coheley for a loss of 1 yard to the TA&M 44Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 16
OWN 44
0
95.8%
Jaylen Henderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 16
OWN 44
0
95.5%
Nik Constantinou punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 18 yds · 0:324% → 4%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+17
96.1%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 17 yds to the ACU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
95.9%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 1 yd to the ACU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:1496% → 98%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
95.7%
Rueben Owens run for no gain to the TA&M 26Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+10
95.6%
Rueben Owens run for 10 yds to the TA&M 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
95.8%
Rueben Owens run for 8 yds to the TA&M 44Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+5
96.0%
Rueben Owens run for 5 yds to the TA&M 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
96.0%
Jaylen Henderson run for 2 yds to the ACU 49Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+49
97.6%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 49 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 4:183% → 3%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
97.5%
Jordon Vaughn run for 6 yds to the ACU 23Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 4
OWN 23
-3
97.4%
Jordon Vaughn run for a loss of 3 yards to the ACU 20Similar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+26
97.6%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Tristan Golightly for 26 yds to the ACU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
97.3%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for a loss of 1 yard to the ACU 45Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
97.4%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Jed Castles for no gain to the ACU 45Similar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 11
OWN 45
-5
97.5%
Abilene Christian Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jay'Veon Sunday) to the ACU 40Similar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 16
OWN 40
+12
97.6%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 12 yds to the TA&M 48Similar
Q3 8:15
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
97.1%
Grant Nickel punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TA&M 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 33 yds · 2:0798% → 98%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+38
97.9%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 38 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
50
0
98.1%
Jaylen Henderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 10
50
+3
98.1%
Rueben Owens run for 3 yds to the ACU 47Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 7
OPP 47
-8
98.0%
Jaylen Henderson sacked by Cirby Coheley for a loss of 8 yards to the TA&M 45Similar
Q3 6:08
4TH & 15
OWN 45
0
97.6%
Nik Constantinou punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 20FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 7:023% → 4%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
97.5%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Jed Castles for 13 yds to the ACU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
97.5%
Jordon Vaughn run for no gain to the ACU 23Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+10
97.5%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Blayne Taylor for 10 yds to the ACU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
97.4%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Blayne Taylor for 16 yds to the ACU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-15
97.3%
SUNDAY, Jay'Veon rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the AM49 (ANDERSON, Bryce;REGIS, Albert). PENALTY ACU Personal Foul on CASTLES, Jed enforced 15 yards from the ACU49 to the ACU34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 25
OWN 34
+17
97.5%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Blayne Taylor for 17 yds to the TA&M 49Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+10
97.3%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 10 yds to the TA&M 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
97.2%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
97.3%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 2 yds to the TA&M 37Similar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+15
97.3%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Blayne Taylor for 15 yds to the TA&M 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
97.0%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 2 yds to the TA&M 20 Jay'Veon Sunday fumbled, recovered by ACU Jacob Thielen [NHSG] SUNDAY, Jay'Veon rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards, SUNDAY, Jay'Veon fumbled at AM22 forced by JACKSON, McKinnley, recovered by ACU THIELEN, Jacob at the AM20, returned 0 yards to the AM20, End of Play, clock 00:00.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
97.0%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 20
-3
97.3%
Maverick McIvor sacked by Taurean York for a loss of 3 yards to the TA&M 23Similar
Q4 14:06
4TH & 11
OPP 23
+40
95.7%
Kyle Ramsey 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0597% → 97%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.1%
Rueben Owens run for 3 yds to the TA&M 28Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
97.2%
Rueben Owens run for 1 yd to the TA&M 29Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
97.1%
Jaylen Henderson run for 3 yds to the TA&M 32Similar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
96.9%
Nik Constantinou punt for 25 yds, downed at the ACU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:015% → 4%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
95.3%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 3 yds to the ACU 46Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-5
95.2%
DOBBINS, Jermiah rush to the right for no gain to the ACU46 (SYLLA, Malick). PENALTY Before the snap, ACU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the ACU46 to the ACU41. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 12
OWN 41
0
95.5%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 12
OWN 41
0
95.8%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:00
4TH & 12
OWN 41
0
95.8%
Grant Nickel punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 23TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 5:3597% → 99%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
97.2%
Jordan Anthony run for 2 yds to the TA&M 29Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+9
97.2%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 9 yds to the TA&M 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
97.3%
Rueben Owens run for 3 yds to the TA&M 41Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+5
97.4%
Rueben Owens run for 5 yds to the TA&M 46Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+15
97.3%
Rueben Owens run for 15 yds to the ACU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
97.4%
Jaylen Henderson run for 11 yds to the ACU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
97.4%
Rueben Owens run for 3 yds to the ACU 25Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+11
97.4%
Jaylen Henderson run for 11 yds to the ACU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
97.4%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the ACU 11Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+4
97.4%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the ACU 7Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+4
97.3%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the ACU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.4%
David Bailey run for 3 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:501% → 1%
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
99.4%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 3 yds to the ACU 19Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+4
99.4%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 4 yds to the ACU 23Similar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+3
99.4%
Maverick McIvor pass complete to Blayne Taylor for 3 yds to the ACU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.4%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
99.4%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 4 yds to the ACU 30Similar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
99.4%
Maverick McIvor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:29
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
99.5%
Grant Nickel punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 25TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:33100% → 100%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
99.7%
Abilene Christian Penalty, Roughing the Passer on HERPIN, Chris enforced (Chris Herpin) to the ACU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
99.7%
Anthony DiNota run for 2 yds to the ACU 16Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+3
99.7%
Anthony DiNota run for 3 yds to the ACU 13Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+13
99.9%
Marcel Reed pass complete to Jaden Platt for 13 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:560% → 0%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
100.0%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for 2 yds to the ACU 37Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-2
100.0%
Jay'Veon Sunday run for a loss of 2 yards to the ACU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:25
David Bailey run for 3 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
+2.1
TD · Q3 12:39
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 49 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
+1.6
FG · Q4 14:06
Kyle Ramsey 40 yd FG GOOD
-1.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com