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ULM

UL Monroe 3 at Ole Miss 35

MISS
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:59 · Fraser Masin punt for 37 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 137Pregame prior+20.0Home team on offense+32.9Score differential+17.9Garbage-time factor+11.9Blowout margin+11.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.7
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q3 12:17: Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard line — MISS win probability +1.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:44: Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 13 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +2.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 7:19: Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the MISS 42 — MISS win probability +1.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:15: Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 2 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +2.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:46: Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 58 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +1.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ULM made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 11:37MISS 4th & 8 at ULM 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    97.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:35ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:36MISS 4th & 2 at MISS 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    97.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:25ULM 4th & 23 at MISS 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:21ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:00MISS 4th & 2 at ULM 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    96.3%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:37MISS 4th & 2 at ULM 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    96.1%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    95.5%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:25MISS 4th & 25 at MISS 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00ULM 4th & 9 at MISS 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−2.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:17ULM 4th & 10 at ULM 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:19ULM 4th & 2 at MISS 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    5.9%−0.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:53ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 30, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:09ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 31, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:59MISS 4th & 4 at MISS 47, up 25
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:14ULM 4th & 10 at MISS 19, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:40ULM 4th & 7 at MISS 20, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 4:26MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:44MISS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:15MISS Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:46MISS Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:12MISS Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1MISSED FG
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:2099% → 99%
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
98.9%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Adin Huntington for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 35Similar
Q1 14:57
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+10
98.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 10 yds to the MISS 45Similar
Q1 14:57
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+10
98.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 10 yds to the ULM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
98.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for a loss of 3 yards to the ULM 48Similar
Q1 14:57
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+12
98.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 12 yds to the ULM 36Similar
Q1 14:57
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+2
98.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the ULM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
98.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:57
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-3
98.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the ULM 37Similar
Q1 14:57
3RD & 13
OPP 37
+5
98.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 5 yds to the ULM 32Similar
Q1 11:37
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+50
98.6%
Caden Davis 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:021% → 2%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
98.6%
Hunter Smith run for 1 yd to the ULM 33Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+3
98.6%
Hunter Smith run for 3 yds to the ULM 36Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 6
OWN 36
-1
98.6%
Jiya Wright sacked by JJ Pegues and Cedric Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 35Similar
Q1 9:35
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
98.4%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5998% → 98%
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
98.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+9
98.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 9 yds to the MISS 28Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 1
OWN 28
-1
98.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 27Similar
Q1 8:36
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
98.2%
run for no gain to the MISS 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 1:112% → 2%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
98.2%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
98.2%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 10
OPP 27
-8
98.2%
Jiya Wright sacked by Cedric Johnson and Ladarius Tennison for a loss of 8 yards to the MISS 35Similar
Q1 8:36
4TH & 18
OPP 35
-5
98.3%
UL Monroe Penalty, Delay Of Game (Braxton Guilbeau) to the MISS 40Similar
Q1 7:25
4TH & 23
OPP 40
0
98.1%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the MISS 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 2:5998% → 98%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+20
98.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 20 yds to the MISS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
98.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 6 yds to the MISS 41Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+17
98.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 17 yds to the ULM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
98.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 8 yds to the ULM 34Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+7
98.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 7 yds to the ULM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
98.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+9
98.2%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 9 yds to the ULM 18Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+3
98.2%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the ULM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
98.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 1 yd to the ULM 14Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+14
98.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 14 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:052% → 2%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
98.0%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Isaiah Woullard for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 24Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
98.0%
Jiya Wright run for 6 yds to the ULM 30Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+1
98.0%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 1 yd to the ULM 31Similar
Q1 2:21
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
97.8%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7DOWNS
12 plays · 55 yds · 3:4498% → 97%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
97.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the MISS 34Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+16
97.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
50
0
97.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 10
50
+16
97.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 16 yds to the ULM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
97.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 3 yds to the ULM 31Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+6
97.9%
Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the ULM 25Similar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 1
OPP 25
-1
97.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 26Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+6
97.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 6 yds to the ULM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
97.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+5
97.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 5 yds to the ULM 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+4
97.6%
Jaxson Dart run for 4 yds to the ULM 12Similar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 2
OPP 12
0
97.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8INT
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:573% → 3%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
97.3%
Hunter Smith run for 8 yds to the ULM 20Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+1
97.3%
Hunter Smith run for 1 yd to the ULM 21Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+5
97.3%
Jiya Wright pass complete to NyNy Davis for 5 yds to the ULM 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
97.3%
Jiya Wright run for 9 yds to the ULM 35Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+7
97.2%
Bennett Galloway run for 7 yds to the ULM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
97.2%
Bennett Galloway run for 7 yds to the ULM 49Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 3
OWN 49
-9
96.4%
Jiya Wright pass intercepted Trey Washington return for 9 yds to the MISS 30Similar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
96.8%
JUDKINS, Quinshon rush to the left for a gain of 16 yards to the OLE46 (VIGERS, Car'lin). PENALTY OLE Holding on MCINTYRE, Reece enforced 10 yards from the OLE30 to the OLE20 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · -1 yds · 3:1597% → 96%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 20
OWN 20
-1
96.8%
Jaxson Dart sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 21Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 19
OWN 21
+6
96.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 6 yds to the MISS 27Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+17
96.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 17 yds to the MISS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
97.0%
DART, Jaxson pass to the right incomplete intended for WADE, Dayton thrown to the ULM47. PENALTY OLE Holding on CURNE, Victor enforced 10 yards from the OLE44 to the OLE34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+4
96.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the MISS 38Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 16
OWN 38
0
96.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 16
OWN 38
-9
96.7%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Dylan Howell for a loss of 9 yards to the MISS 29Similar
Q2 6:25
4TH & 25
OWN 29
0
96.0%
Fraser Masin punt for 51 yds, downed at the ULM 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10FG
23 plays · 71 yds · 6:254% → 6%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
96.2%
Hunter Smith run for 5 yds to the ULM 25Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
96.1%
Hunter Smith run for 6 yds to the ULM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
96.1%
Hunter Smith run for 12 yds to the ULM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
96.0%
UL Monroe Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ULM 38Similar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+5
96.1%
Hunter Smith run for 5 yds to the ULM 43Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
96.0%
Hunter Smith run for 9 yds to the MISS 48Similar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+4
95.8%
Jiya Wright run for 4 yds to the MISS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
95.8%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
94.6%
Bennett Galloway run for no gain to the MISS 44Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+11
94.8%
Jiya Wright pass complete to NyNy Davis for 11 yds to the MISS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
94.2%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
94.3%
Jiya Wright run for 5 yds to the MISS 28Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+7
94.5%
Hunter Smith run for 7 yds to the MISS 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
93.8%
Hunter Smith run for 4 yds to the MISS 17Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+11
93.8%
WRIGHT, Jiya pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WILEY, Dariyan thrown to the OLE1. PENALTY OLE Pass Interference on WALTON, Zamari enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the OLE6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
94.0%
Jiya Wright run for 1 yd to the MISS 5Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
94.0%
Jiya Wright run for a loss of 4 yards to the MISS 9 Jiya Wright fumbled, recovered by ULM Jiya Wright [SG] QB Keeper WRIGHT, Jiya rush to the left for a loss of 4 yards, WRIGHT, Jiya fumbled at OLE9 forced by WALTON, Zamari, recovered by ULM WRIGHT, Jiya at the OLE9, returned 0 yards to the OLE9 (IVEY, Jared;WALTON, Zamari).Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
94.5%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
93.9%
Braxton Guilbeau 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:437% → 8%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.2%
Hunter Smith run for 4 yds to the ULM 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
93.0%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 12 yds to the ULM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
92.7%
Hunter Smith run for no gain to the ULM 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
92.8%
Hunter Smith run for no gain to the ULM 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
93.1%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:17
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
92.4%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 2:3392% → 96%
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
92.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 14 yds to the MISS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
92.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 35Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
92.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:17
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+18
91.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 18 yds to the ULM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
93.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 13
50
+3
92.5%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the ULM 47Similar
Q3 12:17
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+25
92.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 25 yds to the ULM 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
93.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds to the ULM 13Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+13
95.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 13 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 13DOWNS
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:255% → 6%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.2%
WRIGHT, Jiya pass short to the right incomplete intended for HOWELL, Tyrone thrown to the ULM30. PENALTY OLE Pass Interference on PRINCE, Deantre enforced at the spot of the foul for 5 yards to the ULM30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
95.1%
Ole Miss Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Daijahn Anthony) to the MISS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
94.6%
Isaiah Woullard run for 2 yds to the MISS 46Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+4
94.6%
Isaiah Woullard run for 4 yds to the MISS 42Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+2
94.7%
Isaiah Woullard run for 2 yds to the MISS 40Similar
Q3 7:19
4TH & 2
OPP 40
0
94.5%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14TD
11 plays · 60 yds · 3:0496% → 98%
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
95.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the MISS 42Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+9
95.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 9 yds to the ULM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
95.7%
Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 10 yards to the MISS 41 Jaxson Dart fumbled, recovered by MISS Jaxson Dart [SG] QB Keeper DART, Jaxson rush up the middle for a loss of 10 yards, DART, Jaxson fumbled at OLE44 , recovered by OLE DART, Jaxson at the OLE41, returned 0 yards to the OLE41, End of Play.Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 20
OWN 41
+21
95.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 21 yds to the ULM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
95.7%
Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ULM 43Similar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+15
95.6%
BENTLEY IV, Ulysses rush up the middle for no gain to the ULM43 (VIGERS, Car'lin). PENALTY ULM Face mask on HOWELL, Dylan enforced 15 yards from the ULM43 to the ULM28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
95.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the ULM 31Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+22
95.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 22 yds to the ULM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
95.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the ULM 7Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
95.7%
DART, Jaxson pass to the left incomplete intended for HARRIS, Tre thrown to the ULM0. PENALTY ULM Pass Interference on VOLMAR, Andrew enforced at the spot of the foul for 5 yards to the ULM2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 2 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:222% → 2%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.8%
Bennett Galloway run for 6 yds to the ULM 31Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
97.7%
Jiya Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the ULM 30Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
97.8%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:53
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
97.8%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 30 yds, downed at the MISS 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16TD
3 plays · 60 yds · 1:0798% → 100%
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
98.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the MISS 43Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-1
98.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 42Similar
Q3 1:46
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+58
99.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 58 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:371% → 0%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.5%
Hunter Smith run for 2 yds to the ULM 27Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
99.5%
Hunter Smith run for 4 yds to the ULM 31Similar
Q3 1:46
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
99.5%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:09
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.6%
Braxton Guilbeau punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:01100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+17
99.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 17 yds to the MISS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
99.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the MISS 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-10
99.7%
JUDKINS, Quinshon rush to the left for a gain of 11 yards to the ULM46 (GLASS, Carl). PENALTY OLE Holding on CURNE, Victor enforced 10 yards from the OLE43 to the OLE33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 33
+12
99.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 12 yds to the MISS 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+2
99.7%
Jaxson Dart run for 2 yds to the MISS 47Similar
Q4 12:59
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
99.7%
Fraser Masin punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 55 yds · 4:450% → 0%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
99.6%
Bennett Galloway run for 16 yds to the ULM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
99.6%
Bennett Galloway run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 2
50
+21
99.5%
Jiya Wright pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 21 yds to the MISS 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
99.5%
Hunter Smith run for 3 yds to the MISS 26Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+7
99.5%
Jiya Wright run for 7 yds to the MISS 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
99.5%
Bennett Galloway run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 20Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 11
OPP 20
0
99.6%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 11
OPP 20
+1
99.7%
Jiya Wright run for 1 yd to the MISS 19Similar
Q4 8:14
4TH & 10
OPP 19
0
99.7%
Jiya Wright pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 2:02100% → 100%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
99.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Matt Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 18Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+4
99.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Bralon Brown for 4 yds to the MISS 22Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 7
OWN 22
0
99.8%
Spencer Sanders pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:14
4TH & 7
OWN 22
+15
99.8%
MASIN, Fraser punt 48 yards to the ULM30, fair catch by HOWELL, Tyrone. PENALTY ULM Roughing the Kicker on TORRES, Nick enforced 15 yards from the OLE22 to the OLE37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.8%
Matt Jones run for 5 yds to the MISS 42Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+7
99.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Jayvontay Conner for 7 yds to the MISS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
99.9%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Cayden Lee for 51 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21DOWNS
13 plays · 68 yds · 5:280% → 0%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
100.0%
UL Monroe Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ULM 7Similar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 15
OWN 7
+11
100.0%
Charlie Norman run for 11 yds to the ULM 18Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+5
100.0%
Charlie Norman run for 5 yds to the ULM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
100.0%
Charlie Norman run for 4 yds to the ULM 27Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+5
100.0%
Charlie Norman run for 5 yds to the ULM 32Similar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+3
100.0%
Charlie Norman run for 3 yds to the ULM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
100.0%
GARCIA, Brian pass deep to the right incomplete dropped by HILL, Parker thrown to the OLE46. PENALTY OLE Unnecessary Roughness on KNOX, Jalen enforced 15 yards from the ULM35 to the ULM50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
50
+17
100.0%
Charlie Norman run for 17 yds to the MISS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
99.9%
Brian Garcia pass complete to Jalen Jackson for 10 yds to the MISS 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.9%
Brian Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
99.9%
Charlie Norman run for 3 yds to the MISS 20Similar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
100.0%
Charlie Norman run for no gain to the MISS 20Similar
Q4 0:40
4TH & 7
OPP 20
0
100.0%
Brian Garcia pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · 32 yds · 0:40100% → 100%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+26
100.0%
Spencer Sanders run for 11 yds to the MISS 31 for a 1ST down UL Monroe Penalty, Personal Foul (Ja'Terious Evans) to the MISS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
100.0%
Jam Griffin run for 6 yds to the ULM 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:44
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 13 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)
+2.7
TD · Q3 4:15
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 2 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)
+2.6
TD · Q3 1:46
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 58 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)
+1.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com