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USM

Southern Miss 20 at Mississippi State 41

MSST
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:29 · Bryce Lofton punt for 37 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 22Pregame prior+34.4Home team on offense−1.5Garbage-time factor−0.4Score differential−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:00: Kyle Ferrie 41 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +3.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:00: Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 15 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +5.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:16: Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 44 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — USM win probability +5.8 pts (now 13%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 8:05: Kyle Ferrie 30 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +6.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:14: Jeffery Pittman run for 59 yds for a TD (Will Rogers pass to Zavion Thomas for Two-Point Conversion) — MSST win probability +3.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 10USM made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 12:54MSST 4th & 2 at USM 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    86.1%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:40MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:29USM 4th & 6 at USM 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:02MSST 4th & 15 at MSST 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:15USM 4th & 4 at USM 20, up 7
    Close callPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:00MSST 4th & 3 at USM 30, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.0%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    80.7%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:51USM 4th & 16 at USM 19, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−0.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:36MSST 4th & 7 at USM 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    79.8%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:08USM 4th & 6 at USM 31, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:25MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 28, up 6
    Close callPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:50USM 4th & 4 at MSST 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    17.2%−0.8
    47% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q2 5:04MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 47, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%
    average punt
  13. Q2 3:59USM 4th & 7 at USM 19, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:00MSST 4th & 3 at USM 23, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.7%−0.5
    70% to make
    Punt
    78.6%−4.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 12:39USM 4th & 23 at USM 17, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−2.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  16. Q3 10:00USM 4th & 1 at USM 34, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.1%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:26USM 4th & 6 at MSST 48, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:04MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 34, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:16USM 4th & 5 at MSST 44, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    5.3%−0.9
    27% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−0.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:05MSST 4th & 6 at USM 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.8%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.9%
    86% to make
    Punt
    86.4%−4.5
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:14USM 4th & 1 at MSST 41, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    19.2%−6.9
    32% to make
    Punt
    17.9%−8.2
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:16USM 4th & 1 at MSST 40, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    10.0%−11.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    8.5%−13.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USM made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 11:07USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:51MSST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:00MSST Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:16USM Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    12.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    12.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1DOWNS
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:0488% → 87%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
87.5%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MSST 36Similar
Q1 14:58
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+2
87.5%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MSST 38Similar
Q1 14:58
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+11
87.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 11 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
87.5%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
87.1%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the USM 47Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+4
87.1%
Jeffery Pittman run for 4 yds to the USM 43Similar
Q1 12:54
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
87.0%
Jeffery Pittman run for no gain to the USM 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 1:4713% → 15%
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
86.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the USM 47Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+44
86.8%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 44 yds to the MSST 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
86.7%
Frank Gore Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
86.7%
Jakarius Caston run for 1 yd to the MSST 8Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
85.4%
Ethan Crawford pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 8 yds for a TD (Andrew Stein KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2786% → 85%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
85.7%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
85.6%
Lideatrick Griffin run for no gain to the MSST 32Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+6
85.5%
Will Rogers run for 6 yds to the MSST 38Similar
Q1 9:40
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
84.8%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1115% → 16%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
84.9%
Ethan Crawford run for 6 yds to the USM 27Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+3
84.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the USM 30Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 1
OWN 30
0
84.7%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:40
4TH & 1
OWN 30
-5
84.9%
Southern Miss Penalty, False Start (Rodrigues Clark) to the USM 25Similar
Q1 8:29
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
84.3%
Bryce Lofton punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:2784% → 83%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
84.4%
Zavion Thomas run for 4 yds to the MSST 47Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-10
84.5%
MARKS, Jo'quavious rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the USM48 (THOMAS JR., Eric). PENALTY MSU Holding on JONES, Nick enforced 10 yards from the MSU47 to the MSU37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 16
OWN 37
+1
84.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 1 yd to the MSST 38Similar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 15
OWN 38
0
84.0%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:02
4TH & 15
OWN 38
0
83.0%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4717% → 18%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
83.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the USM 19Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+1
83.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the USM 20Similar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 4
OWN 20
0
83.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the USM 20Similar
Q1 5:15
4TH & 4
OWN 20
0
82.4%
Bryce Lofton punt for 32 yds, downed at the USM 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1583% → 83%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
82.8%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the USM 34Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
83.0%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+4
82.7%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the USM 30Similar
Q1 4:00
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+48
83.1%
Kyle Ferrie 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 2:0917% → 18%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
82.7%
Ethan Crawford sacked by De'Monte Russell for a loss of 8 yards to the USM 17Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
82.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the USM 17Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+2
83.1%
Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the USM 19Similar
Q1 1:51
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
82.2%
Bryce Lofton punt for 34 yds, downed at the MSST 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 3:0083% → 84%
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
82.5%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 45Similar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+19
81.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 19 yds to the USM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
82.7%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the USM 35Similar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+12
82.9%
Seth Davis run for 12 yds to the USM 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
82.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 12 yds to the USM 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
82.2%
Seth Davis run for 1 yd to the USM 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+2
82.2%
Zavion Thomas run for 2 yds to the USM 8Similar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
83.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 8 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10FUMBLE
1 play · -11 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
82.9%
Ethan Crawford sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 11 yards to the USM 14, fumble on the sack recovered by Nathan Pickering Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0784% → 85%
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
83.9%
Will Rogers run for no gain to the USM 14Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+3
83.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 3 yds to the USM 11Similar
Q2 13:43
3RD & 7
OPP 11
0
83.6%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:36
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+29
84.9%
Kyle Ferrie 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:2416% → 16%
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
83.9%
Rodrigues Clark run for 5 yds to the USM 17Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+10
83.9%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 10 yds to the USM 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
83.7%
Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the USM 28Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+3
83.8%
Billy Wiles run for 3 yds to the USM 31Similar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
83.9%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:08
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
83.9%
Bryce Lofton punt for 47 yds, downed at the MSST 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4384% → 83%
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
84.3%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+6
84.2%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the MSST 28Similar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
84.0%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 4
OWN 28
0
83.4%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14DOWNS
6 plays · 31 yds · 2:3518% → 18%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
82.5%
Billy Wiles run for 3 yds to the USM 38Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+22
82.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 22 yds to the MSST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
81.4%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+6
81.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the MSST 34Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
81.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the MSST 34Similar
Q2 6:50
4TH & 4
OPP 34
0
82.2%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:4684% → 83%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
84.4%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 13 yds to the MSST 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
85.4%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 45Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+2
84.8%
Seth Davis run for 2 yds to the MSST 47Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
84.3%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:04
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
83.3%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0518% → 17%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
82.5%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+3
82.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the USM 19Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 7
OWN 19
0
83.2%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:59
4TH & 7
OWN 19
0
83.4%
Bryce Lofton punt for 51 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for no gain to the MSST 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17FG
15 plays · 42 yds · 3:5984% → 86%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
84.1%
Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds to the MSST 38Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
84.9%
Jeffery Pittman run for 4 yds to the MSST 42Similar
Q2 2:53
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+3
84.5%
Mike Wright run for 3 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
85.1%
Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the MSST 47Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+10
85.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Freddie Roberson for 10 yds to the USM 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
85.3%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
85.2%
Seth Davis run for 3 yds to the USM 40Similar
Q2 2:53
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+10
84.8%
Seth Davis run for 10 yds to the USM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
85.0%
Seth Davis run for 4 yds to the USM 26Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-15
85.0%
Mississippi State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the USM 41Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 21
OPP 41
+18
83.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Freddie Roberson for 18 yds to the USM 23Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+41
86.2%
Kyle Ferrie 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 2:2115% → 13%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
84.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the USM 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-10
84.9%
GORE, Frank rush to the right for a gain of 9 yards to the USM40 (PURVIS, J.P.;JOHNSON, Jett). PENALTY USM Holding on MAYS, Briason enforced 10 yards from the USM31 to the USM21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 21
-10
85.3%
Ethan Crawford sacked by Jett Johnson for a loss of 10 yards to the USM 11Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 29
OWN 11
+6
85.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the USM 17Similar
Q3 12:39
4TH & 23
OWN 17
0
86.7%
Bryce Lofton punt for 46 yds, downed at the MSST 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 2:3986% → 93%
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
85.9%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the MSST 41Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+35
86.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 35 yds Zavion Thomas fumbled, recovered by MSST Zavion Thomas for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
86.8%
Will Rogers run for 9 yds to the USM 15Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 1
OPP 15
0
86.8%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for no gain to the USM 15Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+15
92.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 15 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20PUNT
12 plays · 27 yds · 5:349% → 8%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.2%
Ethan Crawford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.3%
Rodrigues Clark run for 5 yds to the USM 30Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
91.0%
Ethan Crawford run for 4 yds to the USM 34Similar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
91.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the USM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
90.7%
run for 1 yd to the USM 38Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+5
90.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the USM 43Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+5
90.7%
Ethan Crawford run for 5 yds to the USM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
90.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the MSST 47Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 5
OPP 47
-16
90.0%
WILES, Billy pass to the right complete for 22 yards to MIMS, Tiaquelin caught at the MSU33 and advanced to the MSU25 (RICHARDSON, Decamerion). PENALTY USM Unsportsmanlike Conduct enforced 16 yards from the MSU47 to the USM37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 21
OWN 37
+3
91.3%
Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the USM 40Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 18
OWN 40
+12
91.4%
Ethan Crawford run for 12 yds to the MSST 48Similar
Q3 4:26
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
92.5%
Bryce Lofton punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:2295% → 95%
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
94.7%
Lideatrick Griffin run for 6 yds to the MSST 26Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
94.8%
Jeffery Pittman run for 5 yds to the MSST 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
94.8%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
94.7%
Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds to the MSST 34Similar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
94.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for no gain to the MSST 34Similar
Q3 2:04
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
94.5%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 3:487% → 13%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
93.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the USM 34Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+5
93.7%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 5 yds to the USM 39Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+12
93.3%
Billy Wiles run for 12 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
93.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the MSST 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+1
93.2%
run for 1 yd to the MSST 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+3
93.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the MSST 44Similar
Q4 13:16
4TH & 5
OPP 44
+44
87.5%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 44 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23FG
13 plays · 65 yds · 5:0489% → 96%
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
88.8%
Seth Davis run for 3 yds to the MSST 26Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 7
OWN 26
-10
88.8%
Mississippi State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Isaac Smith) to the MSST 22Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 11
OWN 22
0
88.6%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 11
OWN 22
+12
87.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 12 yds to the MSST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
89.0%
Zavion Thomas run for 8 yds to the MSST 42Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+4
89.8%
Seth Davis run for 4 yds to the MSST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+21
89.8%
Mike Wright run for 21 yds to the USM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
90.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+15
90.0%
Southern Miss Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jalen Williams) to the USM 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
90.0%
Seth Davis run for 2 yds to the USM 14Similar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+2
90.0%
Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the USM 12Similar
Q4 13:09
3RD & 6
OPP 12
0
89.5%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:05
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+30
95.5%
Kyle Ferrie 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3884% → 87%
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.9%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
83.6%
Jeffery Pittman run for 16 yds to the MSST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
87.0%
Jeffery Pittman run for 59 yds for a TD (Will Rogers pass to Zavion Thomas for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25INT TD
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:5426% → 29%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
74.5%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 1 yd to the USM 31Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+4
74.6%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 4 yds to the USM 35Similar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+15
75.0%
GORE, Frank pass deep to the right incomplete intended for CASTON, Jakarius thrown to the MSU21. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on RICHARDSON, Decamerion enforced 15 yards to the USM50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
50
+7
69.6%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 7 yds to the MSST 43Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+1
68.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the MSST 42Similar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+1
69.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the MSST 41Similar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+1
72.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the MSST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-60
71.5%
Marcus Banks 60 Yd Interception Return (Kyle Ferrie Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:5924% → 27%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
75.6%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 5 yds to the USM 43Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+8
73.4%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Latreal Jones for 8 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
70.6%
Billy Wiles pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
71.8%
Kenyon Clay run for 4 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+5
71.8%
Billy Wiles pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 5 yds to the MSST 40Similar
Q4 1:16
4TH & 1
OPP 40
-1
72.7%
Kenyon Clay run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 1:1694% → 90%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
94.4%
(01:16) [NHSG] Kneel down by WRIGHT, Mike at MSU40 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 40
0
90.0%
[NHSG] Kneel down by WRIGHT, Mike at MSU39 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+10
FG · Q4 8:05
Kyle Ferrie 30 yd FG GOOD
+6
TD · Q3 10:00
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 15 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
+5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com