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UTEP

UTEP 30 at Middle Tennessee 34

MTSU
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadUTEP aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreUTEP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:29 · Ezell Jolly run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTSU 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 141Pregame prior+2.8Home team on offense+2.2Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6Score differential+1.0Blowout margin+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:55: Torrance Burgess Jr. 54 Yd Punt Return (Buzz Flabiano Kick) — UTEP win probability +5.4 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 8:55: Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 17 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +5.7 pts (now 75%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:57: Deion Hankins run for 2 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK) — UTEP win probability +9.6 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 10:29: Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Zack Dobson for 56 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +11.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:32: Cade McConnell pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 80 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano PAT MISSED) — UTEP win probability +14.9 pts (now 29%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9UTEP made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 0:45UTEP 4th & 18 at MTSU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    26.4%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:55MTSU 4th & 3 at MTSU 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:36MTSU 4th & 2 at MTSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    68.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:57MTSU 4th & 12 at UTEP 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    70.7%−3.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:01UTEP 4th & 9 at UTEP 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:54MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00MTSU 4th & 3 at UTEP 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    69.0%−1.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    68.6%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:51UTEP 4th & 13 at MTSU 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−2.4
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−8.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:38UTEP 4th & 17 at UTEP 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−3.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:55MTSU 4th & 4 at UTEP 7, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.3%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    75.1%−9.7
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:09MTSU 4th & 8 at UTEP 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:29UTEP 4th & 1 at MTSU 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    25.5%−6.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    26.1%−5.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:34MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−3.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:12MTSU 4th & 7 at UTEP 37, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    81.5%−1.7
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%−2.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:08UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.7%−5.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:37UTEP 4th & 2 at MTSU 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    11.9%−8.8
    45% to make
    Punt
    8.0%−12.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UTEP made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:30MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:39UTEP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:53MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:55UTEP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:55MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:57UTEP Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:29MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:32UTEP Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    29.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTEPDrive 1FUMBLE
7 plays · 23 yds · 3:1730% → 31%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.9%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
69.9%
Deion Hankins run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 24Similar
Q1 14:16
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+12
69.8%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Javoni Gardere for 12 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
69.7%
Deion Hankins run for 2 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-1
69.5%
Cade McConnell sacked by Parker Hughes for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 37Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+12
69.5%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Emari White for 12 yds to the UTEP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
69.1%
Cade McConnell run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 48 Cade McConnell fumbled, recovered by MTSU Marvae Myers (11:39) [NHSG] QB Keeper MCCONNELL, Cade rush up the middle for a loss of 1 yard, MCCONNELL, Cade fumbled at TEP48 , recovered by MTS MYERS, Marvae at the TEP48, returned 0 yards to the TEP48, End of Play, clock 11:37.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 48 yds · 2:0370% → 72%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
69.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Javonte Sherman for no gain to the UTEP 48Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+18
69.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 18 yds to the UTEP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
69.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 12 yds to the UTEP 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
69.8%
Frank Peasant run for 9 yds to the UTEP 9Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+9
71.5%
Frank Peasant run for 9 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:4729% → 34%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
70.8%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Emari White for 3 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
70.8%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Emari White for 6 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
70.8%
Deion Hankins run for 8 yds to the UTEP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
70.8%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 5 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
70.6%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+7
70.7%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 7 yds to the MTSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
70.5%
Deion Hankins run for 2 yds to the MTSU 44Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+4
70.6%
Deion Hankins run for 4 yds to the MTSU 40Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+6
70.7%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Torrance Burgess Jr. for 6 yds to the MTSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
70.2%
Deion Hankins run for 16 yds to the MTSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
66.4%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 18 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4TD
2 plays · 74 yds · 0:3068% → 73%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
68.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 12 yds to the MTSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
72.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 62 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 35 yds · 2:0428% → 28%
Q1 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+43
71.7%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Torrance Burgess Jr. for 43 yds to the MTSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
69.9%
UTEP Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MTSU 37Similar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+2
70.8%
Deion Hankins run for 2 yds to the MTSU 35Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 13
OPP 35
-5
70.3%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Torrance Burgess Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the MTSU 40Similar
Q1 0:58
3RD & 18
OPP 40
0
71.6%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:45
4TH & 18
OPP 40
0
72.2%
Joshua Sloan punt for 36 yds, downed at the MTSU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6PUNT TD
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4972% → 66%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
72.0%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds to the MTSU 7Similar
Q1 0:11
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+5
72.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Taharin Sudderth for 5 yds to the MTSU 12Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 2
OWN 12
-1
71.6%
Nicholas Vattiato run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 11Similar
Q2 13:55
4TH & 3
OWN 11
+54
66.1%
Torrance Burgess Jr. 54 Yd Punt Return (Buzz Flabiano Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5267% → 75%
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
67.3%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the MTSU 25Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
66.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 8 yds to the MTSU 33Similar
Q2 12:36
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+24
66.5%
Jordan Branch run for 24 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
68.9%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 9 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+4
69.2%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 4 yds to the UTEP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
69.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 31Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+10
69.0%
UTEP Penalty, Defensive Holding (Tyrice Knight) to the UTEP 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
69.2%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Tyrice Knight for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 18Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+1
69.2%
Jaiden Credle run for 1 yd to the UTEP 17Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+17
75.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 17 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8FG
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:5376% → 76%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+9
75.6%
DJ Riles run for 9 yds to the UTEP 14Similar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
75.7%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, False Start (Keylan Rutledge) to the UTEP 23Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 6
OPP 14
-2
75.8%
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 16Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+6
76.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Javonte Sherman for 6 yds to the UTEP 10Similar
Q2 7:04
4TH & 2
OPP 10
-10
75.4%
QB Keeper RILES, DJ rush to the right for a gain of 10 yards to the TEP0, TOUCHDOWN MTS, score nullified by penalty, clock 07:04 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY MTS Holding on GRAHAM, Jacqui enforced 10 yards from the TEP10 to the TEP20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:57
4TH & 12
OPP 20
+38
76.1%
Zeke Rankin 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5224% → 23%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
76.2%
Deion Hankins run for 1 yd to the UTEP 36Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
76.3%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
76.9%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
77.5%
Joshua Sloan punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5477% → 76%
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
77.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
76.9%
Jaiden Credle run for 4 yds to the MTSU 30Similar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
76.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:54
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
76.0%
Trey Turk punt for 55 yds, downed at the UTEP 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 11TD
14 plays · 85 yds · 3:4123% → 33%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
77.3%
Cade McConnell run for 3 yds to the UTEP 18Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+2
77.8%
Deion Hankins run for 2 yds to the UTEP 20Similar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+6
79.8%
MCCONNELL, Cade pass to the left incomplete intended for WHITE, Emari thrown to the TEP28, clock 03:09. PENALTY MTS Pass Interference on MCDONALD, De'Arre enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the TEP26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
79.8%
Deion Hankins run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 25Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 11
OWN 25
-3
80.1%
Cade McConnell sacked by Richard Kinley for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 22Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 14
OWN 22
+26
80.1%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Jeremiah Ballard for 26 yds to the UTEP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
77.8%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
78.6%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+15
79.2%
(01:35) MCCONNELL, Cade pass to the right incomplete intended for BALLARD, Jeremiah thrown to the MTS40; QB hurried by KINLEY, Richard, clock 01:34. PENALTY MTS Roughing the Passer on KINLEY, Richard enforced 15 yards from the TEP48 to the MTS37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+35
76.7%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Deion Hankins for 35 yds to the MTSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
67.1%
Deion Hankins run for 2 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12DOWNS
8 plays · 42 yds · 0:5369% → 71%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.8%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the MTSU 25Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
68.5%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 6 yds to the MTSU 31Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+29
68.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 14 yds to the UTEP 45 for a 1ST down UTEP Penalty, Personal Foul (AJ Odums) to the UTEP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
71.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 7 yds to the UTEP 33Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 3
OPP 33
0
73.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 3
OPP 33
0
72.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 33
0
70.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13FUMBLE
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0568% → 68%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
67.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Frank Peasant for a loss of 1 yard fumbled, forced by Tyrice Knight, recovered by UTEP Tyrice Knight (14:51) [NHSG] VATTIATO, Nicholas pass to the left complete for -1 yard to PEASANT, Frank, PEASANT, Frank fumbled at MTS27 forced by KNIGHT, Tyrice, recovered by TEP KNIGHT, Tyrice at the MTS24, returned 0 yards to the MTS24, End of Play, clock 14:48.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14FG
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:5736% → 39%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
63.7%
Deion Hankins run for 7 yds to the MTSU 17Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+4
63.6%
Deion Hankins run for 4 yds to the MTSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-15
63.4%
HANKINS, Deion rush to the left for a loss of 2 yards to the MTS15 (COOK, Marley), clock 13:26. PENALTY TEP Face mask on HENRY, Zuri enforced 15 yards from the MTS13 to the MTS28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 25
OPP 28
+7
63.9%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Jeremiah Ballard for 7 yds to the MTSU 21Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 18
OPP 21
+5
64.1%
Mike Franklin run for 5 yds to the MTSU 16Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 13
OPP 16
0
65.4%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:51
4TH & 13
OPP 16
+33
61.3%
Buzz Flabiano 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1864% → 77%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
63.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 4 yds to the MTSU 29Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
64.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
62.7%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 15 yds to the MTSU 44 Nicholas Vattiato fumbled, recovered by MTSU Wilson Kelly for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
66.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+56
77.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Zack Dobson for 56 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:4525% → 23%
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
75.3%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+14
75.6%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 14 yds to the UTEP 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
75.0%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Emari White for 5 yds to the UTEP 33Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
74.3%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+7
75.4%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Ezell Jolly for 7 yds to the UTEP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
74.0%
Ezell Jolly run for 1 yd to the UTEP 41Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+1
74.2%
Cade McConnell run for 1 yd to the UTEP 42Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-9
75.0%
Cade McConnell sacked by Devyn Curtis for a loss of 9 yards to the UTEP 33Similar
Q3 6:38
4TH & 17
OWN 33
0
77.4%
Joshua Sloan punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Zack Dobson at the MTSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17INT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:2280% → 81%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
79.5%
Jalen Montgomery run for 2 yds to the MTSU 22Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+13
79.4%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 13 yds to the MTSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
79.9%
Jaiden Credle run for 5 yds to the MTSU 40Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
81.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-29
80.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass intercepted Oscar Moore return for 29 yds to the MTSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:3228% → 29%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
71.7%
Ezell Jolly run for 8 yds to the MTSU 27Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+14
71.1%
Ezell Jolly run for 14 yds to the MTSU 28 Ezell Jolly fumbled, recovered by MTSU Jakobe Thomas (04:19) [NHSG] JOLLY, Ezell rush to the right for a gain of 14 yards, JOLLY, Ezell fumbled at MTS22 forced by BRUMFIELD, Sam, recovered by MTS THOMAS, Jakobe at the MTS13, returned 15 yards to the MTS28 (AKHARAIYI, Kelly;BRUMFIELD, Sam), clock 04:14.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19FG
13 plays · 65 yds · 4:0880% → 86%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
79.9%
DJ Riles run for 2 yds to the MTSU 30Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
79.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+16
78.9%
Frank Peasant run for 16 yds to the MTSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
82.0%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the MTSU 49Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
83.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+13
82.0%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 13 yds to the UTEP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
83.6%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the UTEP 35Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+12
84.0%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 12 yds to the UTEP 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
85.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Zack Dobson for 10 yds to the UTEP 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
85.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
85.7%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the UTEP 11Similar
Q3 0:05
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+4
85.8%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 4 yds to the UTEP 7Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+24
85.7%
Zeke Rankin 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 20TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2314% → 29%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
85.7%
UTEP Penalty, False Start (Justin Mayers) to the UTEP 20Similar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
85.8%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:32
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+80
70.9%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 80 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 3:1273% → 72%
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
73.1%
Jaiden Credle run for 7 yds to the MTSU 34Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+17
74.7%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 17 yds to the UTEP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-8
76.3%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Maurice Westmoreland for a loss of 8 yards to the MTSU 43Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 18
OWN 43
+7
73.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 11
50
+3
73.6%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 3 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
Q4 11:09
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
72.0%
Trey Turk punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:3330% → 34%
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+30
70.4%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Jeremiah Ballard for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
50
+6
65.2%
Ezell Jolly run for 6 yds to the MTSU 44Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
64.4%
Ezell Jolly run for no gain to the MTSU 44Similar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+3
65.3%
Ezell Jolly run for 3 yds to the MTSU 41Similar
Q4 8:29
4TH & 1
OPP 41
-2
65.8%
Ezell Jolly run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5477% → 75%
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
77.3%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the MTSU 43Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
78.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
76.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
74.6%
Miles Tillman punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 24INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:2930% → 18%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
70.4%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Ezell Jolly for 4 yds to the UTEP 16Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 6
OWN 16
0
70.2%
Cade McConnell pass intercepted Marvae Myers return for no gain to the UTEP 40Similar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
82.4%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, False Start (Jacqui Graham) to the UTEP 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3981% → 84%
Q4 6:51
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+2
81.3%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 2 yds to the UTEP 43Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 13
OPP 43
0
81.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 13
OPP 43
+6
80.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 6 yds to the UTEP 37Similar
Q4 5:12
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
83.9%
Trey Turk punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 26DOWNS
19 plays · 45 yds · 4:2628% → 13%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
72.1%
Mike Franklin run for 8 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 2
OWN 28
-2
71.5%
Mike Franklin run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 26Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+5
74.6%
Mike Franklin run for 5 yds to the UTEP 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
72.8%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
74.4%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+10
76.8%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Emari White for 10 yds to the UTEP 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
72.4%
UTEP Penalty, False Start (Kelly Akharaiyi) to the UTEP 36Similar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 15
OWN 36
0
76.7%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 15
OWN 36
0
77.4%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Ezell Jolly for no gain to the UTEP 36Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 15
OWN 36
-15
78.7%
UTEP Penalty, Personal Foul (Elijah Klein) to the UTEP 21Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 30
OWN 21
+24
81.1%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Jeremiah Ballard for 24 yds to the UTEP 45Similar
Q4 1:08
4TH & 6
OWN 45
+12
81.3%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 12 yds to the MTSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
75.7%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+1
76.2%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Ezell Jolly for 1 yd to the MTSU 42Similar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+7
83.0%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 7 yds to the MTSU 35Similar
Q4 0:37
4TH & 2
OPP 35
0
87.2%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
95.3%
(00:32) [NHSG] Kneel down by VATTIATO, Nicholas at MTS31 (team loss of 4), clock 00:26.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:32
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 80 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano PAT MISSED)
-14.9
TD · Q3 10:29
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Zack Dobson for 56 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)
+11.3
TD · Q2 0:57
Deion Hankins run for 2 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)
-9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com