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MICH

Michigan 31 at Maryland 24

MD
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · SECU Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:05 · Tommy Doman punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Tarheeb Still at the MD 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Pregame prior−5.9Home team on offense−18.0Garbage-time factor−6.3Score differential−4.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:59: Blake Corum 1 Yd Run (James Turner Kick) — MICH win probability +5.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:59: Billy Edwards Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick) — MD win probability +4.6 pts (now 15%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:23: Billy Edwards Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick) — MD win probability +8.6 pts (now 24%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:04: Semaj Morgan 13 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — MICH win probability +9.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:16: Billy Edwards Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick) — MD win probability +16.7 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 12:50MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 26, tied
    Close callPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:29MD 4th & 3 at MICH 17, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.9%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    16.2%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:32MD 4th & 17 at MD 18, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:59MD 4th & 1 at MICH 1, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    10.0%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−2.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:17MICH 4th & 4 at MD 30, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    85.8%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    84.4%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:23MD 4th & 1 at MICH 1, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    14.3%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    10.4%−5.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:28MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 34, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:52MICH 4th & 3 at MD 24, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    78.4%−0.8
    68% to make
    Punt
    72.1%−7.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:57MICH 4th & 2 at MICH 44, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%−1.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:37MD 4th & 23 at MD 18, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−5.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:05MICH 4th & 3 at MD 43, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.0 ptsPunted · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    75.3%−6.0
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%−4.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:10MICH 4th & 19 at MD 48, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−4.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:58MICH 4th & 1 at MD 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    89.1%−1.9
    38% to make
    Punt
    88.8%−2.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 2:19MICH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:00MICH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:59MICH Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:59MD Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:23MD Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:04MICH Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    86.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:16MD Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1089% → 88%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
11.3%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the MICH 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+4
11.3%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MICH 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+4
11.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 4 yds to the MICH 26Similar
Q1 12:50
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
12.3%
Tommy Doman punt for 58 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 6:2112% → 16%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
12.3%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the MD 29Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+6
12.3%
Roman Hemby run for 6 yds to the MD 35Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+10
12.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 10 yds to the MD 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
12.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 8 yds to the MICH 47Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+1
12.4%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the MICH 46Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+6
12.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 6 yds to the MICH 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
12.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 16 yds to the MICH 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
12.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 1 yd to the MICH 23Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+2
12.4%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the MICH 21Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+4
12.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 4 yds to the MICH 17Similar
Q1 6:29
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+35
16.0%
Jack Howes 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 4:1084% → 85%
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
15.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 23 yds to the MD 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
15.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+12
15.5%
Blake Corum run for 12 yds to the MD 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+14
15.3%
Blake Corum run for 14 yds to the MD 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
15.3%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the MD 13Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+6
15.3%
Blake Corum run for 6 yds to the MD 7Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+4
15.4%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MD 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
15.3%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the MD 2Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
15.4%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · -21 yds · 0:1916% → 14%
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
16.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+4
13.5%
Derrick Moore 4 Yd Fumble Return (James Turner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:2814% → 13%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
13.7%
Colby McDonald run for 2 yds to the MD 27Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-9
13.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Jaylen Harrell for a loss of 9 yards to the MD 18Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
13.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:32
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
13.3%
punt blocked by for a SAFETY blocked by for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6TD
16 plays · 64 yds · 7:0187% → 93%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
12.8%
Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the MICH 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+6
12.6%
Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the MICH 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
12.6%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the MD 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+7
12.6%
Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the MD 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
12.6%
Kalel Mullings run for 8 yds to the MD 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+5
12.5%
Kalel Mullings run for 5 yds to the MD 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
12.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
12.6%
J.J. McCarthy run for no gain to the MD 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+2
12.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the MD 26Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 26
0
12.9%
MCCARTHY, J.J. pass to the right incomplete intended for BARNER, AJ thrown to the UMD16. PENALTY UMD Pass Interference on STILL, Tarheeb enforced half the distance from the goal, 10 yards to the UMD16 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
12.5%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the MD 1Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
12.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-1
12.5%
Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 17
+13
12.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 13 yds to the MD 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
12.5%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the MD 1Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.4%
Blake Corum 1 Yd Run (James Turner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:0010% → 15%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
9.9%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the MD 25Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
9.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 14 yds to the MD 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
10.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 5 yds to the MD 44Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+11
10.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 11 yds to the MICH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
10.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 14 yds to the MICH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
10.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 4 yds to the MICH 27Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+4
10.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 4 yds to the MICH 23Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+3
10.7%
Antwain Littleton II run for 3 yds to the MICH 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
10.8%
Antwain Littleton II run for 3 yds to the MICH 17Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+16
10.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 16 yds to the MICH 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
11.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
11.3%
Colby McDonald run for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 2Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
10.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Colby McDonald for 1 yd to the MICH 1Similar
Q2 1:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
15.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8INT
15 plays · 68 yds · 1:4487% → 90%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
12.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the MICH 28Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
12.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 10 yds to the MICH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+26
12.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Tyler Morris for 26 yds to the MD 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
11.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the MD 32Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
11.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+2
11.6%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the MD 30Similar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+12
12.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 12 yds to the MD 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
11.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 9 yds to the MD 9Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 1
OPP 9
0
10.3%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the MD 9 Blake Corum fumbled, recovered by MICH Trevor Keegan [NHSG] CORUM, Blake rush up the middle for no gain, CORUM, Blake fumbled at UMD9 forced by JOHNSON, Taizse, recovered by MIC KEEGAN, Trevor at the UMD9, returned 0 yards to the UMD9, End of Play.Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+2
10.5%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MD 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
10.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-11
9.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass intercepted Jaishawn Barham return for 11 yds to the MD 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
14.1%
Kneel down by UMD at UMD10 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 4:3214% → 24%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
14.4%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the MD 23Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+34
14.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 34 yds to the MICH 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
15.6%
Roman Hemby run for 3 yds to the MICH 40Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+4
15.6%
Roman Hemby run for 4 yds to the MICH 36Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+15
15.5%
TAGOVAILOA, Taulia pass up the middle incomplete intended for LITTLETON II, Antwain thrown to the MIC27. PENALTY MIC Roughing the Passer on GRAHAM, Mason enforced 15 yards from the MIC36 to the MIC21 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
16.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 13 yds to the MICH 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
16.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
16.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 7 yds to the MICH 1Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
15.5%
Antwain Littleton II run for no gain to the MICH 1Similar
Q3 10:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
24.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5579% → 79%
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
20.8%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the MICH 30Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
20.1%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MICH 33Similar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
20.2%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the MICH 34Similar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
20.8%
Tommy Doman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tarheeb Still at the MD 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12INT
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:5524% → 25%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
23.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+17
23.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 17 yds to the MD 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
25.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 1 yd to the MD 42Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-1
25.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass intercepted Mike Sainristil return for 1 yd to the MICH 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13TD
9 plays · 51 yds · 3:2981% → 89%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
18.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 10 yds to the MD 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
18.8%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MD 39Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+8
18.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 8 yds to the MD 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
18.4%
Donovan Edwards run for 7 yds to the MD 24Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 3
OPP 24
0
18.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 3
OPP 24
0
19.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:52
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+11
20.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 11 yds to the MD 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
10.9%
Semaj Morgan 13 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14TD
9 plays · 84 yds · 3:4315% → 34%
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
14.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 15Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 11
OWN 15
0
14.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 11
OWN 15
+13
13.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 13 yds to the MD 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
15.1%
Roman Hemby run for 7 yds to the MD 35Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+7
15.4%
Roman Hemby run for 7 yds to the MD 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+24
15.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 24 yds to the MICH 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+33
17.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 33 yds to the MICH 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
17.5%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for no gain to the MICH 1Similar
Q3 0:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
34.2%
Billy Edwards Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:0377% → 77%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
23.3%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MICH 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
23.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 8 yds to the MICH 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
22.4%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MICH 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-7
21.3%
J.J. McCarthy sacked by Ja'Quan Sheppard for a loss of 7 yards to the MICH 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+7
24.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to AJ Barner for 7 yds to the MICH 39Similar
Q4 12:05
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+5
24.7%
DOMAN, Tommy punt 45 yards to the UMD16, STILL, Tarheeb returned 19 yards to the UMD35 (WAGNER, William;JOHNSON, Quinten), clock 12:05. PENALTY UMD Offsides on GIBSON, Gavin enforced 5 yards from the MIC39 to the MIC44 [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:57
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
23.5%
Tommy Doman punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 3:2029% → 28%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
29.1%
Colby McDonald run for 6 yds to the MD 26Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+2
29.7%
Colby McDonald run for 2 yds to the MD 28Similar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
28.4%
Antwain Littleton II run for 3 yds to the MD 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
29.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 2 yds to the MD 33Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
29.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 8
OWN 33
-5
28.4%
Maryland Penalty, False Start (Kyle Long) to the MD 28Similar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 13
OWN 28
-10
27.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Mason Graham and Braiden McGregor for a loss of 10 yards to the MD 18Similar
Q4 8:37
4TH & 23
OWN 18
0
27.8%
Brenden Segovia punt for 32 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3281% → 80%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
50
0
19.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 10
50
+4
19.6%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MD 46Similar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+3
19.8%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MD 43Similar
Q4 7:05
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
20.0%
Tommy Doman punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Tarheeb Still at the MD 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18INT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:3327% → 22%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
26.9%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the MD 11Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 9
OWN 11
-9
23.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Kenneth Grant for a loss of 9 yards to the MD 2Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 18
OWN 2
0
21.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass intercepted Mike Sainristil return for no gain to the MD 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:2284% → 82%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
16.2%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the MD 38Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 9
OPP 38
-10
16.3%
MCCARTHY, J.J. scrambles to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the UMD36, End of Play. PENALTY MIC Holding on JONES, Trente enforced 10 yards from the UMD38 to the UMD48. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 19
OPP 48
0
17.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 19
OPP 48
0
18.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:10
4TH & 19
OPP 48
0
18.2%
Tommy Doman punt for 47 yds, downed at the MD 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20SF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
22.2%
Colby McDonald run for 3 yds to the MD 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21END OF GAME
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:3690% → 96%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
10.1%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the MD 42Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+3
9.7%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MD 39Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+1
4.4%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the MD 38Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+1
5.3%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the MD 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
4.6%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MD 33Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+15
4.3%
Maryland Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the MD 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
3.7%
[NH] Kneel down by MCCARTHY, J.J. at UMD19 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:16
Billy Edwards Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)
+16.7
TD · Q3 4:04
Semaj Morgan 13 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-9.6
TD · Q3 10:23
Billy Edwards Jr. 1 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)
+8.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com