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ILL

Illinois 13 at Iowa 15

IOWA
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Kinnick Stadium
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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4SAFETYFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:09 · Tory Taylor punt for 51 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+23.0+11.50−11.5−23.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 65Pregame prior+5.8Home team on offense−1.4Score differential−1.0Garbage-time factor−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:53: Reggie Love III run for 1 yd for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK) — ILL win probability +12.2 pts (now 48%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 14:56: Caleb Griffin 29 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +8.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:43: Kaleb Johnson run for 30 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens PAT BLOCKED) — IOWA win probability +40.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:42: John Paddock pass complete to Casey Washington for 7 yds to the ILL 32 — ILL win probability +14.3 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:40: Kaleb Johnson run for 1 yd to the ILL 32 — IOWA win probability +11.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 5 of 9ILL made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:15IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:40IOWA 4th & 9 at ILL 35, up 2
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.1%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    60.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:29ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 34, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:50IOWA 4th & 2 at IOWA 41, up 2
    Close callPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:19ILL 4th & 10 at IOWA 34, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.2%
    47% to make
    Punt
    39.0%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:09IOWA 4th & 12 at IOWA 34, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−2.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:19ILL 4th & 10 at IOWA 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.0%
    47% to make
    Punt
    44.5%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:14IOWA 4th & 13 at IOWA 42, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−0.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:42ILL 4th & 10 at IOWA 49, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:22IOWA 4th & 1 at IOWA 17, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%−2.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:31ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 33, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−2.0
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:24IOWA 4th & 20 at IOWA 41, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−5.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:56ILL 4th & 1 at IOWA 11, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.6%−5.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    29.7%−21.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:59IOWA 4th & 8 at IOWA 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−2.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:07ILL 4th & 5 at IOWA 44, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    61.3%−4.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%−1.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:28IOWA 4th & 7 at IOWA 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−1.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:05ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−1.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:44ILL 4th & 2 at ILL 33, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.3%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 10:20IOWA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:53ILL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 4:43IOWA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    70.1%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:4460% → 60%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
60.3%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 13 yds to the IOWA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
60.3%
Leshon Williams run for 4 yds to the IOWA 42Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+5
60.4%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Kaleb Brown for 5 yds to the IOWA 47Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
60.4%
Leshon Williams run for no gain to the IOWA 47Similar
Q1 12:15
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
60.4%
Tory Taylor punt for 46 yds, downed at the ILL 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2SF
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:4240% → 39%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
60.3%
Reggie Love III run for a loss of 2 yards to the ILL 5Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 12
OWN 5
0
60.3%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:24
3RD & 12
OWN 5
0
60.9%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3MISSED FG
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:3661% → 61%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
60.6%
Leshon Williams run for 15 yds to the IOWA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
60.7%
Leshon Williams run for 1 yd to the IOWA 33Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+31
60.7%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Kaleb Brown for 31 yds to the ILL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
61.5%
Kaleb Johnson run for 1 yd to the ILL 35Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
61.4%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 9
OPP 35
0
61.2%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:40
4TH & 9
OPP 35
+53
60.7%
Drew Stevens 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1039% → 39%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
60.6%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-1
60.8%
Reggie Love III run for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 34Similar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
61.2%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
61.4%
Hugh Robertson punt for 66 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 2:2761% → 61%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
60.9%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 13 yds to the IOWA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
61.1%
Jaziun Patterson run for 3 yds to the IOWA 36Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+4
61.4%
Jaziun Patterson run for 4 yds to the IOWA 40Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+1
61.4%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Kaleb Brown for 1 yd to the IOWA 41Similar
Q1 4:50
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
61.0%
Tory Taylor punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the ILL 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 1:2039% → 40%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
61.1%
John Paddock pass complete to Pat Bryant for 5 yds to the ILL 28Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+6
60.8%
Reggie Love III run for 6 yds to the ILL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
60.8%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+32
61.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 32 yds to the IOWA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
59.5%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
59.5%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
60.1%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:19
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+52
59.6%
Caleb Griffin 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 7:5659% → 68%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
58.9%
Leshon Williams run for 5 yds to the IOWA 30Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
59.1%
Leshon Williams run for 9 yds to the IOWA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
59.6%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Kaleb Brown for 10 yds to the IOWA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
60.3%
Leshon Williams run for no gain to the IOWA 49Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
60.1%
Jaziun Patterson run for 3 yds to the ILL 48Similar
Q1 0:17
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+14
60.1%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Seth Anderson for 14 yds to the ILL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
61.2%
Leshon Williams run for 5 yds to the ILL 29Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+1
61.2%
Leshon Williams run for 1 yd to the ILL 28Similar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+8
60.5%
(13:51) HILL, Deacon pass to the left incomplete intended for BROWN, Kaleb thrown to the ILL19, clock 13:47. PENALTY ILL Pass Interference on NICHOLSON, Tahveon enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the ILL20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
61.2%
Kaleb Johnson run for 1 yd to the ILL 19Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
61.3%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Nico Ragaini for no gain to the ILL 19Similar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+12
60.4%
Deacon Hill run for 12 yds to the ILL 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
61.4%
Leshon Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 8Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
61.4%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Kaleb Brown for 4 yds to the ILL 4Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
67.5%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Addison Ostrenga for 4 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2634% → 48%
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
66.1%
John Paddock pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 20 yds to the ILL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
64.5%
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd to the ILL 46Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+11
64.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Casey Washington for 11 yds to the IOWA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
63.9%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+13
64.2%
Reggie Love III run for 13 yds to the IOWA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
63.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 9 yds to the IOWA 21Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+3
63.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 3 yds to the IOWA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
63.8%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+17
64.1%
John Paddock pass complete to Tip Reiman for 17 yds to the IOWA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.9%
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:4357% → 55%
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
57.1%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Addison Ostrenga for 9 yds to the IOWA 34Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
58.8%
Kaleb Johnson run for 2 yds to the IOWA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
57.8%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Addison Ostrenga for no gain to the IOWA 36Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
57.4%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Addison Ostrenga for 6 yds to the IOWA 42Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 4
OWN 42
-8
58.4%
Deacon Hill sacked by Kenenna Odeluga for a loss of 8 yards to the IOWA 34Similar
Q2 4:09
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
55.0%
Tory Taylor punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10MISSED FG
12 plays · 46 yds · 2:4045% → 46%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
54.7%
Reggie Love III run for 6 yds to the ILL 26Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
54.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Pat Bryant for 3 yds to the ILL 29Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
54.4%
(03:12) LOVE III, Reggie rush up the middle for a loss of 2 yards to the ILL27 (JACKSON, Nick), clock 03:08. PENALTY UI Offsides on GRAVES, Aaron enforced 5 yards from the ILL29 to the ILL34 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
53.7%
PADDOCK, John pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WASHINGTON, Casey thrown to the UI42, clock 02:57. PENALTY UI Pass Interference on HARRIS, Jermari enforced 15 yards to the ILL49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
51.8%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the IOWA 49Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+6
51.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Casey Washington for 6 yds to the IOWA 43Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+9
50.6%
John Paddock pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 9 yds to the IOWA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
49.4%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
49.4%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
51.5%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:19
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+52
54.5%
Caleb Griffin 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:5957% → 54%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
57.3%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Addison Ostrenga for 5 yds to the IOWA 39Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 5
OWN 39
-6
59.6%
Deacon Hill sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the IOWA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
59.4%
Deacon Hill sacked by Seth Coleman for a loss of 3 yards to the IOWA 42Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 13
OWN 42
0
56.2%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 13
OWN 42
0
55.0%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 13
OWN 42
0
54.2%
Tory Taylor punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
54.3%
(00:04) [NH] Kneel down by ILL at ILL18 (team loss of 2), clock 00:01.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 2:1446% → 45%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
53.9%
Reggie Love III run for 3 yds to the ILL 28Similar
Q3 14:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
53.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Reggie Love III for 8 yds to the ILL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
52.8%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
53.3%
Reggie Love III run for 6 yds to the ILL 42Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+9
51.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 9 yds to the IOWA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
50.7%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
51.0%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
52.4%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:42
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
54.6%
Hugh Robertson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kaden Wetjen at the IOWA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2655% → 52%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
54.7%
Leshon Williams run for 1 yd to the IOWA 9Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 9
OWN 9
0
54.5%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+8
52.0%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Kaleb Brown for 8 yds to the IOWA 17Similar
Q3 11:22
4TH & 1
OWN 17
0
52.3%
Tory Taylor punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the ILL 30Similar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
52.2%
LOVE III, Reggie rush to the right for a gain of 6 yards to the ILL36 (LEE, Deshaun), clock 11:06. PENALTY ILL Holding on ADAMS, Isaiah enforced 10 yards from the ILL30 to the ILL20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2347% → 45%
Q3 10:54
1ST & 20
OWN 20
0
53.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Casey Washington for no gain to the ILL 20Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 20
OWN 20
+13
53.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Casey Washington for 13 yds to the ILL 33Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
52.9%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:31
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
54.9%
Hugh Robertson punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 18 yds · 3:5654% → 52%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
54.4%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+11
54.0%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 11 yds to the IOWA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
54.8%
Jaziun Patterson run for 1 yd to the IOWA 35Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+4
54.5%
Leshon Williams run for 4 yds to the IOWA 39Similar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+12
56.1%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Seth Anderson for 12 yds to the ILL 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-15
58.7%
(06:42) BROWN, Kaleb rush to the right for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL50 (NICHOLSON, Tahveon), clock 06:36. PENALTY UI Personal Foul on DUNKER, Gennings enforced 15 yards from the ILL49 to the UI36 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 25
OWN 36
+5
54.2%
Leshon Williams run for 5 yds to the IOWA 41Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 20
OWN 41
0
54.5%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 20
OWN 41
0
52.8%
Leshon Williams run for no gain to the IOWA 41Similar
Q3 5:24
4TH & 20
OWN 41
0
51.5%
Tory Taylor punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17FG
16 plays · 69 yds · 5:1748% → 66%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
51.6%
Reggie Love III run for 4 yds to the ILL 24Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-5
50.3%
Illinois Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ILL 19Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
51.7%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+13
53.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Ashton Hollins for 13 yds to the ILL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
49.3%
Reggie Love III run for 6 yds to the ILL 38Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+10
47.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Casey Washington for 10 yds to the ILL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
46.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Casey Washington for 3 yds to the IOWA 49Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
46.2%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+15
46.6%
(02:35) PADDOCK, John pass deep to the right incomplete intended for BRYANT, Pat thrown to the UI10, clock 02:30. PENALTY UI Roughing the Passer on SCHULTE, Quinn enforced 15 yards from the UI49 to the UI34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
44.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 14 yds to the IOWA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
43.2%
(01:54) PADDOCK, John pass to the left complete for 2 yards to WILLIAMS, Isaiah caught at the UI23 and advanced to the UI18 (HARRIS, Jermari), out of bounds, clock 01:41. PENALTY Before the snap, ILL Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the UI20 to the UI25. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 1:31
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+5
44.2%
Isaiah Williams run for 5 yds to the IOWA 20Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+9
43.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 9 yds to the IOWA 11Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 11
0
42.8%
John Paddock run for no gain to the IOWA 11Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+29
34.4%
Caleb Griffin 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4740% → 37%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
40.3%
Leshon Williams run for 2 yds to the IOWA 23Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
39.8%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
38.0%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:59
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
36.6%
Tory Taylor punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the ILL 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:5065% → 63%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
35.2%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
36.0%
Reggie Love III run for 8 yds to the ILL 43Similar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+8
33.6%
John Paddock pass complete to Casey Washington for 8 yds to the IOWA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
31.5%
Reggie Love III run for 3 yds to the IOWA 46Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+2
30.6%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the IOWA 44Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
30.6%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:07
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
32.4%
Hugh Robertson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kaden Wetjen at the IOWA 7Similar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+15
37.2%
(11:00) HILL, Deacon pass deep to the left incomplete intended for STILIANOS, Steven thrown to the UI25, clock 10:54. PENALTY ILL Pass Interference on SCOTT, Miles enforced 15 yards to the UI22 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:2539% → 34%
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-9
38.6%
Deacon Hill sacked by Seth Coleman for a loss of 9 yards to the IOWA 13Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 19
OWN 13
0
37.7%
Deacon Hill pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 19
OWN 13
+12
35.9%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Kaleb Brown for 12 yds to the IOWA 25Similar
Q4 9:28
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
33.9%
Tory Taylor punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the ILL 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:2267% → 72%
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
32.9%
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd to the ILL 23Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+3
33.1%
Nick Fedanzo run for 3 yds to the ILL 26Similar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+6
31.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Reggie Love III for 6 yds to the ILL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
28.6%
Reggie Love III run for 4 yds to the ILL 36Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
25.3%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
26.1%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:05
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
28.3%
Hugh Robertson punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22TD
5 plays · 54 yds · 2:0739% → 78%
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
39.3%
Kaleb Johnson run for 2 yds to the IOWA 48Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+3
39.1%
Leshon Williams run for 3 yds to the ILL 49Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+9
39.0%
Deacon Hill pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 9 yds to the ILL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
37.7%
(04:59) HILL, Deacon pass deep incomplete intended for BROWN, Kaleb thrown to the ILL0, clock 04:51. PENALTY ILL Holding on PATTERSON, Kaleb enforced 10 yards from the ILL40 to the ILL30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
77.9%
Kaleb Johnson run for 30 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5836% → 30%
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
63.6%
John Paddock pass complete to Casey Washington for 7 yds to the ILL 32Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
61.7%
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd to the ILL 33Similar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
64.0%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:44
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
69.7%
John Paddock pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
8 plays · 10 yds · 3:1281% → 93%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
80.9%
Kaleb Johnson run for 1 yd to the ILL 32Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+1
82.2%
Kaleb Johnson run for 1 yd to the ILL 31Similar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+12
81.9%
Kaleb Johnson run for 12 yds to the ILL 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
85.1%
Kaleb Johnson run for no gain to the ILL 19Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+3
89.6%
Kaleb Johnson run for 3 yds to the ILL 16Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 7
OPP 16
-5
92.9%
Iowa Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the ILL 21Similar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 12
OPP 21
0
93.0%
(00:28) Kneel down by UI at ILL23 (team loss of 2), clock 00:24.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:43
Kaleb Johnson run for 30 yds for a TD (Drew Stevens PAT BLOCKED)
+40.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:42
John Paddock pass complete to Casey Washington for 7 yds to the ILL 32
-14.3
TD · Q2 6:53
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)
-12.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com