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MSU

Michigan State 24 at Indiana 21

IU
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:48 · Katin Houser pass complete to Maliq Carr for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 168Home team on offense+8.3Pregame prior+0.4Garbage-time factor+1.8Score differential+1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:54: Brendan Sorsby pass complete to James Bomba for 3 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — IU win probability +17.7 pts (now 63%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 9:26: Jonathan Kim 36 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +13.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:06: Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Trey Walker for 8 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — IU win probability +43.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:19: Katin Houser pass complete to Maliq Carr for 36 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK) — MSU win probability +70.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:02: PENALTY MSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting IND UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY. — MSU win probability +15.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 8:20IU 4th & 12 at MSU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    58.6%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:49MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:43IU 4th & 7 at IU 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:42IU 4th & 3 at IU 14, down 7
    Close callPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:45MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:17MSU 4th & 1 at IU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    42.0%−1.7
    60% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−5.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:23IU 4th & 4 at IU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:59MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 34, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:06MSU 4th & 9 at IU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−1.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:00IU 4th & 1 at IU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.7%−3.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:35IU 4th & 6 at MSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    59.0%−1.0
    49% to make
    Punt
    56.7%−3.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:26MSU 4th & 8 at IU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−1.9
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−17.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:48MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.9%−4.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:12IU 4th & 1 at MSU 27, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 4.2 ptsWent for it · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.1%−4.2
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    36.3%
    62% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−24.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:09MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:29IU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:10MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:54IU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:06IU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−2.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:19MSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.8%−2.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 3:1541% → 43%
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
58.7%
Nathan Carter run for 9 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
58.6%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 3 yds to the MSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
58.7%
Indiana Penalty, Personal Foul (Lanell Carr Jr.) to the IU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
58.6%
Katin Houser pass complete to Maliq Carr for 8 yds to the IU 27Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+3
58.6%
Katin Houser pass complete to Maliq Carr for 3 yds to the IU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
58.6%
Jaren Mangham run for 8 yds to the IU 16Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+2
58.6%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the IU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
58.6%
Katin Houser run for 3 yds to the IU 17Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+17
56.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Maliq Carr for 17 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:4957% → 56%
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
57.4%
Trent Howland run for 4 yds to the IU 29Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
57.4%
Trent Howland run for 4 yds to the IU 33Similar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
57.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 10 yds to the IU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
57.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to DeQuece Carter for 14 yds to the MSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
57.8%
Trent Howland run for 2 yds to the MSU 45Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 12
OPP 45
0
57.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to E.J. Williams Jr.Similar
Q1 11:09
3RD & 12
OPP 45
0
57.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Jaylin LucasSimilar
Q1 8:20
4TH & 12
OPP 45
0
56.1%
James Evans punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:3144% → 46%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
56.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jaren Mangham for 6 yds to the MSU 12Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+6
56.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jaren Mangham for 6 yds to the MSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
56.0%
Nathan Carter run for 4 yds to the MSU 22Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+4
56.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 4 yds to the MSU 26Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+7
55.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jaren Mangham for 7 yds to the MSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
55.8%
Indiana Penalty, Illegal Shift (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
55.9%
Jaren Mangham run for 6 yds to the MSU 39Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
55.6%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Harold Joiner IIISimilar
Q1 4:49
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
54.5%
Ryan Eckley punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0655% → 54%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
54.8%
Trent Howland run for 4 yds to the IU 15Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+1
54.8%
Brendan Sorsby run for 1 yd to the IU 14Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 7
OWN 14
0
54.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Donaven McCulleySimilar
Q1 3:43
4TH & 7
OWN 14
0
53.7%
James Evans punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the MSU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5INT
7 plays · 2 yds · 3:1047% → 48%
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
53.2%
Nathan Carter run for no gain to the MSU 46Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
53.3%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Evan MorrisSimilar
Q1 3:43
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+15
53.5%
(02:53) Houser,Katin pass incomplete deep left to Henry,Tyrell, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY IND Pass Interference (Dunnam,Phillip) 15 yards from MSU46 to IND39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
53.0%
Nathan Carter run for 20 yds to the IU 19 Michigan State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Evan Morris) to the IU 49Similar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+8
53.3%
Nathan Carter run for 8 yds to the IU 41Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+5
53.0%
Katin Houser run for 5 yds to the IU 46Similar
Q1 0:33
3RD & 17
OPP 46
0
52.1%
Katin Houser pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5153% → 52%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
52.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 7 yds to the IU 14Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 14
0
52.6%
Trent Howland run for no gain to the IU 14Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 14
0
52.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to E.J. Williams Jr.Similar
Q2 14:42
4TH & 3
OWN 14
0
51.5%
James Evans punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5749% → 48%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
51.5%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the MSU 34Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+2
51.6%
Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the MSU 36Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
50.7%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Maliq CarrSimilar
Q2 13:45
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
51.6%
Ryan Eckley punt for 52 yds, fair catch by DeQuece Carter at the IU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8TD
11 plays · 88 yds · 4:1651% → 62%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
51.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to DeQuece Carter for 6 yds to the IU 18Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+25
51.3%
Brendan Sorsby run for 25 yds to the IU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
52.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 13 yds to the MSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
53.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 9 yds to the MSU 35Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+2
54.2%
Trent Howland run for 2 yds to the MSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
54.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to E.J. Williams Jr.Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
54.1%
Trent Howland run for 4 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+11
53.3%
Brendan Sorsby run for 11 yds to the MSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
54.1%
Trent Howland run for 9 yds to the MSU 9Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+5
54.1%
Trent Howland run for 5 yds to the MSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
61.8%
Trent Howland run for 4 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9DOWNS
15 plays · 39 yds · 6:0743% → 46%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
57.2%
Indiana Penalty, Illegal Shift (5 Yards) to the MSU 28Similar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 5
OWN 28
+2
56.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Maliq Carr for 2 yds to the MSU 30Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+2
56.0%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the MSU 28Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+8
57.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jaren Mangham for 8 yds to the MSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
56.2%
Nathan Carter run for 4 yds to the MSU 32Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+18
56.3%
Nathan Carter run for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
50
0
53.1%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Alante BrownSimilar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 10
50
+13
53.6%
Katin Houser pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 13 yds to the IU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
53.0%
Katin Houser run for 3 yds to the IU 34Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 7
OPP 34
-5
51.8%
Michigan State Penalty, Illegal Shift (Alante Brown) to the IU 39Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+11
53.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 11 yds to the IU 28Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 1
OPP 28
0
52.7%
Katin Houser run for no gain to the IU 28 Katin Houser fumbled, recovered by MSU Nathan Carter (03:54) Shotgun Houser,Katin rush middle for 0 yards to the IND28 fumbled by Houser,Katin at IND28 forced by Sneed,Venson recovered by MSU Carter,Nate at IND28 (Burris Jr.,Marcus).Similar
Q2 3:17
4TH & 1
OPP 28
0
54.2%
Katin Houser run for no gain to the IU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4659% → 58%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
59.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Donaven McCulleySimilar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
59.0%
Josh Henderson run for 6 yds to the IU 34Similar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
58.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to E.J. Williams Jr.Similar
Q2 2:23
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
57.6%
James Evans punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 0:5645% → 62%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
55.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 4 yds to the MSU 26Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+9
55.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 9 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
54.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Maliq Carr for 11 yds to the MSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
52.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 5 yds to the IU 49Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
51.5%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Jaren ManghamSimilar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+20
51.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 20 yds to the IU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
49.4%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Tyrell HenrySimilar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+29
37.7%
Katin Houser pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 29 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 12MISSED FG
10 plays · 37 yds · 0:5244% → 47%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
44.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 4 yds to the IU 32Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
44.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:28
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+34
43.2%
Brendan Sorsby run for 9 yds to the IU 41 for a 1ST down Michigan State Penalty, Defensive Holding (25 Yards) to the IU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
45.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 1 yd to the IU 43Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+13
45.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to DeQuece Carter for 13 yds to the MSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
47.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 9 yds to the MSU 35Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 1
OPP 35
0
47.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Bradley ArcherSimilar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+45
46.6%
Chris Freeman 45 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Simeon Barrow Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
40.4%
Kneel down by Michigan St. at MSU34 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5544% → 63%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
43.6%
Trent Howland run for 7 yds to the IU 32Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
45.1%
Josh Henderson run for 1 yd to the IU 33Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
43.8%
Brendan Sorsby run for 12 yds to the IU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
45.2%
Josh Henderson run for 9 yds to the MSU 46Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+3
46.2%
Josh Henderson run for 3 yds to the MSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
45.8%
Josh Henderson run for 2 yds to the MSU 41Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+38
45.5%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 38 yds to the MSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
63.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to James Bomba for 3 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4945% → 44%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
55.5%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the MSU 28Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
55.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 6 yds to the MSU 34Similar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
54.4%
Jaren Mangham run for no gain to the MSU 34Similar
Q3 8:59
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+15
56.3%
Ryan Eckley punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IU 25 , DeQuece Carter returns for 15 yds to the IU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -24 yds · 0:5658% → 54%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-14
58.0%
Brendan Sorsby sacked by Jordan Hall for a loss of 14 yards to the IU 11Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 24
OWN 11
0
57.4%
Brendan Sorsby run for no gain to the IU 11Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 24
OWN 11
0
55.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete, broken up by Simeon Barrow Jr.Similar
Q3 7:21
4TH & 34
OWN 1
+1
54.3%
James Evans punt for 58 yds , Tyrell Henry returns for 1 yd to the MSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17INT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:2848% → 50%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
51.6%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Alante BrownSimilar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+9
52.4%
Nathan Carter run for 9 yds to the IU 49Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+3
51.0%
Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the IU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
50.5%
Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the IU 47Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+4
51.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Nathan Carter for 4 yds to the IU 43Similar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
50.5%
Katin Houser pass intercepted Jamari Sharpe return for no gain to the IU 48 Jamari Sharpe fumbled, recovered by MSU Alante Brown (05:12) Shotgun Houser,Katin pass intercepted by Sharpe,Jamari at IND34 Sharpe,Jamari return 14 yards to the IND48 fumbled by Sharpe,Jamari at IND48 forced by Carr,Maliq recovered by MSU Brown,Alante at IND48, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2850% → 46%
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
49.7%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Maliq CarrSimilar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
50.2%
Jaren Mangham run for 6 yds to the IU 42Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+5
50.4%
Jaren Mangham run for 5 yds to the IU 47Similar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
54.0%
Ryan Eckley punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19DOWNS
14 plays · 66 yds · 5:2457% → 60%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
57.1%
Trent Howland run for 5 yds to the IU 6Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 5
OWN 6
0
56.9%
Trent Howland run for no gain to the IU 6Similar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+24
55.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 24 yds to the IU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
58.3%
Trent Howland run for 5 yds to the IU 35Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+3
60.1%
Brendan Sorsby run for 3 yds to the IU 38Similar
Q3 0:31
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+1
60.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Trey Walker for 1 yd to the IU 39Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+3
58.2%
Brendan Sorsby run for 3 yds to the IU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
61.4%
Josh Henderson run for 5 yds to the IU 47Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+2
62.6%
Brendan Sorsby run for 2 yds to the IU 49Similar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+14
61.2%
Josh Henderson run for 14 yds to the MSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
63.2%
Trent Howland run for 4 yds to the MSU 33Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
64.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Jaylin LucasSimilar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 6
OPP 33
0
62.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Donaven McCulleySimilar
Q4 12:35
4TH & 6
OPP 33
0
59.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Donaven McCulleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20FG
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:0549% → 66%
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
51.1%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Maliq Carr for a 1ST down Indiana Penalty, Illegal Use Of Hands (Philip Blidi) to the IU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
47.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Maliq Carr for 10 yds to the IU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
46.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 4 yds to the IU 34Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+6
43.7%
Jaren Mangham run for 6 yds to the IU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
43.6%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the IU 26Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
43.6%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Montorie Foster Jr.Similar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 8
OPP 26
0
46.8%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Maliq CarrSimilar
Q4 9:26
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+36
33.7%
Jonathan Kim 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 21TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:1341% → 89%
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
40.6%
Trent Howland run for 5 yds to the IU 30Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
41.3%
Trent Howland run for 3 yds to the IU 33Similar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
41.5%
Trent Howland run for 8 yds to the IU 41 for a 1ST down Michigan State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Alante Brown) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
44.5%
Trent Howland run for 6 yds to the IU 47Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+14
45.4%
Josh Henderson run for 14 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
44.8%
Brendan Sorsby run for 13 yds to the MSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
46.9%
Josh Henderson run for 4 yds to the MSU 22Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+4
46.8%
Josh Henderson run for 4 yds to the MSU 18Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+7
42.7%
Josh Henderson run for 7 yds to the MSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
45.5%
Josh Henderson run for 3 yds to the MSU 8Similar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
89.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Trey Walker for 8 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3924% → 90%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
76.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jaren Mangham for 6 yds to the MSU 31Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
74.3%
Katin Houser run for 1 yd to the MSU 32Similar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
76.0%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Christian FitzpatrickSimilar
Q4 2:48
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+18
77.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Maliq Carr for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
50
+1
73.0%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the IU 49Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+15
73.2%
Katin Houser run for 15 yds to the IU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
68.6%
Harold Joiner III run for 2 yds to the IU 36Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+36
10.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Maliq Carr for 36 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 23MISSED FG
14 plays · 44 yds · 1:0526% → 21%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
26.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to DeQuece Carter for 7 yds to the IU 32Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
25.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to Josh HendersonSimilar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+16
22.3%
Brendan Sorsby run for 16 yds to the IU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
26.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Josh Henderson for 6 yds to the MSU 46Similar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+10
30.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to DeQuece Carter for 10 yds to the MSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
24.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to DeQuece CarterSimilar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+9
23.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to DeQuece Carter for 9 yds to the MSU 27Similar
Q4 0:18
3RD & 1
OPP 27
0
26.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete to E.J. Williams Jr.Similar
Q4 0:12
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+2
25.7%
Josh Henderson run for 2 yds to the MSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
29.5%
Indiana Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Brendan Sorsby) to the MSU 31Similar
Q4 0:02
2ND & 16
OPP 31
+48
20.8%
Chris Freeman 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0294% → 94%
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
5.8%
PENALTY MSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting IND UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
5.8%
Kneel down by Michigan St. at MSU30 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:19
Katin Houser pass complete to Maliq Carr for 36 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)
-70
TD · Q4 4:06
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Trey Walker for 8 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
+43.6
TD · Q3 10:54
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to James Bomba for 3 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
+17.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com