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NMSU

New Mexico State 31 at Auburn 10

AUB
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:27 · Oscar Chapman punt for 52 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 82Pregame prior+24.2Home team on offense−2.8Score differential−1.1Garbage-time factor−1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:28: Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 32 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +5.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:26: Ethan Albertson 40 yd FG GOOD — NMSU win probability +5.8 pts (now 22%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:03: Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 17 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +20.6 pts (now 56%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:48: Timeout New Mexico State, clock 08:48 — NMSU win probability +23.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:42: Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 2 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +4.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 6 of 7NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 7:45AUB 4th & 2 at AUB 42, down 7
    Close callPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:06NMSU 4th & 16 at AUB 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    13.2%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:57AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:28NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:28AUB 4th & 1 at NMSU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    82.4%−1.9
    25% to make
    Punt
    83.0%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:26NMSU 4th & 16 at AUB 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−1.6
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    16.6%−3.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:27AUB 4th & 24 at AUB 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−3.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:40AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−1.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 42, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.1%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:42NMSU 4th & 2 at AUB 2, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    76.5%−3.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    64.1%−15.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:29AUB 4th & 5 at NMSU 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.9%
    56% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:22AUB 4th & 16 at AUB 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:34NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:28AUB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:03NMSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:42NMSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:59NMSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:266% → 8%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 5 yds to the NMSU 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
94.2%
Jamoni Jones run for 5 yds to the NMSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
94.2%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
94.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 11 yds to the NMSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
94.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
50
+11
94.2%
PAVIA, Diego pass to the left incomplete intended for BRADY, Jonathan thrown to the AU35. PENALTY AU Pass Interference on SIMPSON, Jaylin enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the AU39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
94.2%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
94.2%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+5
94.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 5 yds to the AUB 34Similar
Q1 11:01
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+9
93.2%
PAVIA, Diego pass up the middle incomplete intended for DAVID, Kordell thrown to the AU25, clock 11:01. PENALTY AU Pass Interference on NIXON III, Larry enforced at the spot of the foul for 9 yards to the AU25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
93.1%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+21
93.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 21 yds to the AUB 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
93.1%
New Mexico State Penalty, False Start (Jamoni Jones) to the AUB 9Similar
Q1 9:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
92.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 9 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4192% → 92%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
92.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 32Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+1
92.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 1 yd to the AUB 33Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+9
92.2%
Payton Thorne run for 9 yds to the AUB 42Similar
Q1 7:45
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
91.6%
Oscar Chapman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the NMSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT
13 plays · 46 yds · 6:399% → 12%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+14
91.5%
Makhilyn Young run for 14 yds to the NMSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+28
91.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jordin Parker for 28 yds to the AUB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
91.2%
Star Thomas run for 8 yds to the AUB 37Similar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-15
90.1%
New Mexico State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Diego Pavia) to the AUB 47Similar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
90.2%
Star Thomas run for 9 yds to the AUB 38Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+3
90.1%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the AUB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
88.9%
New Mexico State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Diego Pavia) to the AUB 40Similar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 15
OPP 40
-1
89.0%
Jamoni Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 41Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 16
OPP 41
+7
89.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 7 yds to the AUB 34Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 9
OPP 34
-2
89.0%
Diego Pavia sacked by Elijah McAllister for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 36Similar
Q1 3:22
4TH & 11
OPP 36
-5
89.3%
New Mexico State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jamoni Jones) to the AUB 41Similar
Q1 1:06
4TH & 16
OPP 41
0
88.1%
Zach Haynes punt for 36 yds, downed at the AUB 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:0988% → 86%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
88.1%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the AUB 7Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+5
87.5%
Payton Thorne run for 5 yds to the AUB 12Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+6
87.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Brandon Frazier for 6 yds to the AUB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
87.5%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+2
87.5%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the AUB 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 20
-10
87.3%
THORNE, Payton pass to the right complete for 10 yards to FAIRWEATHER, Rivaldo caught at the AU30 and advanced to the AU30 (UNION, Torren). PENALTY AU Holding on MILLER, Izavion enforced 10 yards from the AU20 to the AU10 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 10
+12
87.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Johnson Jr. for 12 yds to the AUB 22Similar
Q2 12:57
4TH & 6
OWN 22
0
85.8%
Oscar Chapman punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the NMSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2915% → 15%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
85.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for 4 yds to the NMSU 45Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+1
85.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Makhilyn Young for 1 yd to the NMSU 46Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
85.5%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
84.8%
Zach Haynes punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6TD
15 plays · 81 yds · 5:0085% → 88%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
85.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 7 yds to the AUB 26Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+9
85.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 9 yds to the AUB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
85.4%
Payton Thorne run for 11 yds to the AUB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
85.9%
Payton Thorne run for 6 yds to the NMSU 48Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
86.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the NMSU 48Similar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+3
86.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the NMSU 45Similar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+2
85.9%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the NMSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
86.3%
THORNE, Payton pass deep to the right incomplete dropped by FROMM, Tyler thrown to the NMS21. PENALTY AU Holding on WRIGHT, Jeremiah enforced 10 yards from the NMS43 to the AU47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 20
OWN 47
0
81.8%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 20
OWN 47
+5
81.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 5 yds to the NMSU 48Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 15
OPP 48
0
81.3%
QB Keeper THORNE, Payton rush up the middle for a loss of 4 yards to the NMS38, out of bounds. PENALTY AU Holding on WADE, Dillon enforced 0 yards NMS Unnecessary Roughness on MARTINEZ, Tyler enforced 0 yards from the AU38 to the AU48, from the the spot of the ball when the foul occurred, runner is credited with -4 yards on the play [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
82.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the NMSU 37Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+5
82.7%
HUNTER, Jarquez rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the NMS33 (AUPIU, Sone;ELLIOTT, Keyshaun). PENALTY Before the snap, NMS Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the NMS37 to the NMS32 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
87.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 32 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7FG
12 plays · 53 yds · 6:0215% → 22%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.8%
Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the NMSU 27Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
84.7%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+20
85.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 20 yds to the NMSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
83.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Donovan Faupel for 12 yds to the AUB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
83.4%
Jamoni Jones run for 10 yds to the AUB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
83.0%
Eli Stowers run for 4 yds to the AUB 27Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+11
82.8%
Eli Stowers run for 11 yds to the AUB 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-10
82.8%
QB Keeper STOWERS, Eli rush to the right for a gain of 11 yards to the AU5 (NIXON III, Larry). PENALTY NMS Holding on CLAIBORNE, Cedric enforced 10 yards from the AU16 to the AU26 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 20
OPP 26
+2
83.1%
Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the AUB 24Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 18
OPP 24
0
83.4%
Eli Stowers run for no gain to the AUB 24Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 18
OPP 24
+2
84.2%
Eli Stowers run for 2 yds to the AUB 22Similar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 16
OPP 22
+40
78.4%
Ethan Albertson 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:2678% → 78%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.4%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
77.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the AUB 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 4:3079% → 73%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
79.1%
Payton Thorne run for 1 yd to the AUB 31Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+7
79.1%
Payton Thorne run for 7 yds to the AUB 38Similar
Q3 14:57
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+13
80.1%
Payton Thorne run for 13 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
81.2%
Auburn Penalty, False Start (Dillon Wade) to the AUB 46Similar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+16
79.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 16 yds to the NMSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
81.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the NMSU 34Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 6
OPP 34
-5
82.0%
THORNE, Payton pass short to the right complete for 12 yards to HUNTER, Jarquez caught at the NMS30 and advanced to the NMS22 (MILLER, Mehki). PENALTY AU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on MILLER, Izavion enforced 5 yards from the NMS34 to the NMS39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 11
OPP 39
-5
81.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for a loss of 5 yards to the NMSU 44Similar
Q3 14:57
3RD & 16
OPP 44
-8
79.2%
Payton Thorne sacked by Nikhil Webb Walker and Dion Wilson Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the AUB 48Similar
Q3 10:27
4TH & 24
OWN 48
0
73.0%
Oscar Chapman punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:2426% → 56%
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+31
73.8%
Star Thomas run for 31 yds to the AUB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
71.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 4 yds to the AUB 45Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 6
OPP 45
-1
68.4%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 46Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+11
68.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 11 yds to the AUB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
67.2%
Eli Stowers run for 6 yds to the AUB 29Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+4
67.1%
Eli Stowers run for 4 yds to the AUB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+18
63.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 18 yds to the AUB 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
64.3%
Eli Stowers run for a loss of 10 yards to the AUB 17Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
0
64.7%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
+17
44.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 17 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1751% → 46%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
50.8%
Damari Alston run for no gain to the AUB 23Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
50.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Damari Alston for 4 yds to the AUB 27Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
50.3%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:40
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
46.4%
Oscar Chapman punt for 56 yds, downed at the NMSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12TD
19 plays · 83 yds · 9:5856% → 95%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
44.1%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+5
44.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jamoni Jones for 5 yds to the NMSU 22Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+12
44.7%
Diego Pavia run for 12 yds to the NMSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
43.3%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the NMSU 36Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+2
42.6%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the NMSU 38Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 6
OWN 38
-5
41.9%
PAVIA, Diego pass to the left complete for -1 yard to BRADY, Jonathan caught at the NMS35 and advanced to the NMS37 (JAMES, DJ). PENALTY Before the snap, NMS False Start enforced 5 yards from the NMS38 to the NMS33. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 33
+9
38.1%
Diego Pavia run for 9 yds to the NMSU 42Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 42
+23
37.1%
Ron Tiavaasue run for 23 yds to the AUB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
32.8%
Star Thomas run for 9 yds to the AUB 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+8
32.7%
Star Thomas run for 8 yds to the AUB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
32.7%
JONES, Jamoni rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the AU17, out of bounds. PENALTY NMS Holding on WHITFORD, Thomaz enforced 10 yards from the AU18 to the AU28 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 28
0
33.1%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 28
+17
33.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 17 yds to the AUB 11Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+6
33.5%
Diego Pavia run for 6 yds to the AUB 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
32.7%
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the AUB 4Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
32.7%
Eli Stowers run for no gain to the AUB 4Similar
Q4 8:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
9.0%
Eli Stowers run for 2 yds to the AUB 2Similar
Q4 8:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
4.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 2 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13FG
8 plays · 53 yds · 3:109% → 9%
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
8.6%
Payton Thorne run for 8 yds to the AUB 25 Payton Thorne fumbled, recovered by AUB Gunner Britton [NHSG] QB Keeper THORNE, Payton rush to the right for a gain of 8 yards, THORNE, Payton fumbled at AU20 forced by SELDON, Andre, recovered by AU BRITTON, Gunner at the AU25, returned 0 yards to the AU25, End of Play.Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+30
8.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 30 yds to the NMSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
9.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Caleb Burton III for 7 yds to the NMSU 38Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+3
10.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the NMSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
10.5%
Payton Thorne sacked by Sterling Webb for a loss of 10 yards to the NMSU 45Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 20
OPP 45
+7
9.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Caleb Burton III for 7 yds to the NMSU 38Similar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 13
OPP 38
+8
9.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Caleb Burton III for 8 yds to the NMSU 30Similar
Q4 5:29
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+48
8.5%
Alex McPherson 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 43 yds · 3:2897% → 99%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
2.7%
Makhilyn Young run for 5 yds to the AUB 38Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+3
2.5%
Makhilyn Young run for 3 yds to the AUB 35Similar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+16
2.5%
Makhilyn Young run for 16 yds to the AUB 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
2.5%
Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the AUB 14Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+12
1.4%
Makhilyn Young run for 12 yds to the AUB 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.6%
Makhilyn Young run for 2 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:301% → 1%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
0.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Caleb Burton III for 11 yds to the AUB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
0.8%
Payton Thorne run for 8 yds to the AUB 37Similar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 2
OWN 37
-11
0.8%
Payton Thorne sacked by Denver Warren for a loss of 11 yards to the AUB 26Similar
Q4 1:52
3RD & 13
OWN 26
-3
0.8%
Payton Thorne sacked by Gabe Peterson for a loss of 3 yards to the AUB 23Similar
Q4 0:22
4TH & 16
OWN 23
+7
0.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 7 yds to the AUB 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
0.5%
[NH] Kneel down by PAVIA, Diego at AU31 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 8:48
Timeout New Mexico State, clock 08:48
-23.1
TD · Q3 5:03
Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 17 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)
-20.6
FG · Q2 0:26
Ethan Albertson 40 yd FG GOOD
-5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com