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Chattanooga 10 at Alabama 66

ALA
2023 · Week 12 · Nov 18, 2023 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadUTC aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreUTC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:02 · Clayton Crile punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Caleb Downs at the ALA 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 40Pregame prior+45.5Home team on offense+8.5Score differential+6.3Blowout margin+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.3Garbage-time factor+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:30: Roydell Williams run for 11 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:42: Jalen Milroe pass complete to Robbie Ouzts for 7 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 7:07: Timeout Alabama, clock 07:07 — UTC win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: UTC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:39: Gino Appleberry 40 Yd Run (Clayton Crile Kick) — UTC win probability +0.6 pts (now 1%) (top driver: UTC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:03: Jalen Milroe pass complete to Malik Benson for 20 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 1 of 3UTC made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 12:04UTC 4th & 8 at UTC 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:29UTC 4th & 9 at UTC 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:02UTC 4th & 4 at UTC 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:26ALA 4th & 18 at UTC 47, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:57UTC 4th & 8 at UTC 22, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:07ALA 4th & 4 at UTC 32, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:46UTC 4th & 6 at ALA 6, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:59UTC 4th & 10 at UTC 39, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:16UTC 4th & 10 at ALA 48, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:06UTC 4th & 7 at UTC 26, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:06ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 35, up 49
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:15UTC 4th & 18 at UTC 15, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:46UTC 4th & 5 at UTC 33, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8UTC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:04ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:27ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:30ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:42ALA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:39UTC Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:03ALA Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:39ALA Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:04ALA Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:17ALA Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:28100% → 100%
Q1 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+56
99.5%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 56 yds to the UTC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
99.5%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the UTC 10Similar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+5
99.5%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 5 yds to the UTC 5Similar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
99.5%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 5 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:571% → 1%
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Luke Schomburg pass incomplete to Javin WhatleySimilar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.5%
Gino Appleberry run for 2 yds to the UTC 27Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.5%
Luke Schomburg pass incomplete to Javin WhatleySimilar
Q1 12:04
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.5%
Clayton Crile punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kool-Aid McKinstry at the ALA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:1999% → 99%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
99.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kendrick Law for 1 yd to the ALA 31Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+4
99.4%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the ALA 35Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+19
99.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Amari Niblack for 19 yds to the UTC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+44
99.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 44 yds to the UTC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.4%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:461% → 1%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.4%
Luke Schomburg pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for 4 yds to the UTC 29Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
99.4%
(08:45) No Huddle-Shotgun Schomburg,Luke sacked for loss of 9 yards to the UTC20 (Braswell,Chris) PENALTY ALA Targeting (Braswell,Chris) 15 yards from UTC29 to UTC44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
99.3%
Gino Appleberry run for 1 yd to the UTC 45Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
99.3%
Luke Schomburg pass incomplete to Camden OvertonSimilar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
99.3%
Luke Schomburg pass incomplete to Javin WhatleySimilar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 9
OWN 45
+6
99.3%
Clayton Crile punt for 51 yds , Kool-Aid McKinstry returns for 6 yds to the ALA 10 Kool-Aid McKinstry fumbled, recovered by ALA Jam Miller (07:40) Crile,Clayton punt 51 yards to the ALA04 McKinstry,Kool-Aid return 6 yards to the ALA10 fumbled by McKinstry,Kool-Aid at ALA10 forced by Mitchell,Alex recovered by ALA Miller,Jamarion at ALA10, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 5:4799% → 99%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
99.3%
Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the ALA 13Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+14
99.3%
Jam Miller run for 14 yds to the ALA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
99.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Malik Benson for no gain to the ALA 27Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+29
99.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jalen Hale for 29 yds to the UTC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
99.3%
Roydell Williams run for 5 yds to the UTC 39Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
99.3%
Roydell Williams run for no gain to the UTC 39Similar
Q1 3:53
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+15
99.2%
Roydell Williams run for 15 yds to the UTC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
99.2%
Jalen Milroe run for 5 yds to the UTC 19Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+5
99.2%
Jam Miller run for 5 yds to the UTC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
99.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Malik Benson for 3 yds to the UTC 11Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+11
99.4%
Roydell Williams run for 11 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:221% → 1%
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.4%
Gino Appleberry run for 2 yds to the UTC 27Similar
Q1 0:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
99.4%
Luke Schomburg pass incomplete to Jamoi MayesSimilar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
99.4%
Gino Appleberry run for 4 yds to the UTC 31Similar
Q1 0:02
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
99.4%
Clayton Crile punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Caleb Downs at the ALA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:3499% → 99%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
99.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 7 yds to the ALA 35Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+26
99.4%
Jase McClellan run for 26 yds to the UTC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.4%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Isaiah BondSimilar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
99.5%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Isaiah BondSimilar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 10
OPP 39
-8
99.5%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Jay Person for a loss of 8 yards to the UTC 47Similar
Q2 13:26
4TH & 18
OPP 47
0
99.4%
James Burnip punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:091% → 1%
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.3%
Luke Schomburg pass complete to Reggie Davis for 2 yds to the UTC 18Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 12
OWN 18
0
99.4%
Luke Schomburg pass incomplete to Sam PhillipsSimilar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+4
99.4%
Reggie Davis run for 4 yds to the UTC 22Similar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
99.4%
Clayton Crile punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Caleb Downs at the ALA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 1:05100% → 100%
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+45
99.5%
Jam Miller run for 45 yds to the UTC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
99.5%
Jam Miller run for 3 yds to the UTC 7Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Robbie Ouzts for 7 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 10INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:570% → 0%
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.6%
Gino Appleberry run for 3 yds to the UTC 28Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
99.6%
Luke Schomburg pass complete to Gino Appleberry for 6 yds to the UTC 34Similar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
99.6%
Luke Schomburg pass complete to Javin Whatley for 4 yds to the UTC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.6%
Luke Schomburg pass intercepted Kristian Story return for no gain to the UTC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11FG
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:20100% → 100%
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
99.5%
Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the UTC 34Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
99.7%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to CJ DippreSimilar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+2
99.7%
Jalen Milroe run for 2 yds to the UTC 32Similar
Q2 7:07
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+50
99.7%
Will Reichard 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:130% → 1%
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.6%
Gino Appleberry run for 8 yds to the UTC 33Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
99.6%
Gino Appleberry run for 4 yds to the UTC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
99.7%
Gino Appleberry run for 11 yds to the UTC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.7%
Gino Appleberry run for no gain to the UTC 48Similar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+12
99.8%
Luke Schomburg pass complete to Sam Phillips for 12 yds to the ALA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
99.2%
Gino Appleberry 40 Yd Run (Clayton Crile Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:04100% → 100%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+28
99.6%
Jase McClellan run for 28 yds to the UTC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
99.5%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 1 yd to the UTC 31Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+1
99.5%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the UTC 30Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+5
99.5%
PENALTY UTC Offside (Jones,Jamarr) 5 yards from UTC30 to UTC25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+5
99.5%
Roydell Williams run for 5 yds to the UTC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Malik Benson for 20 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:490% → 0%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
99.8%
Gino Appleberry run for 3 yds to the UTC 26Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+3
99.8%
Gino Appleberry run for 3 yds to the UTC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 15FG
11 plays · 69 yds · 4:050% → 0%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.8%
Gino Appleberry run for 6 yds to the UTC 31Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Luke Schomburg pass incomplete to Sam PhillipsSimilar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
99.8%
Luke Schomburg pass complete to Sam Phillips for 5 yds to the UTC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.8%
Gino Appleberry run for no gain to the UTC 36Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+54
99.9%
Luke Schomburg pass complete to Javin Whatley for 54 yds to the ALA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
99.9%
Gino Appleberry run for 2 yds to the ALA 8Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
99.9%
Gino Appleberry run for 2 yds to the ALA 6Similar
Q3 10:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.8%
Luke Schomburg pass incomplete to Sam PhillipsSimilar
Q3 10:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
99.7%
Clayton Crile 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 1:47100% → 100%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
99.8%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Amari Niblack for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 5
50
+10
99.8%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 10 yds to the UTC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
99.8%
Roydell Williams run for 13 yds to the UTC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
99.8%
PENALTY ALA Illegal Snap (McLaughlin,Seth) 5 yards from UTC27 to UTC32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 15
OPP 32
0
99.8%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Amari NiblackSimilar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+31
99.8%
Ty Simpson pass complete to for 31 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Justice Haynes run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 17PUNT RETURN TD
9 plays · 14 yds · 3:300% → 0%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Luke Schomburg pass complete to Javin Whatley for 1 yd to the UTC 26Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+13
99.9%
Luke Schomburg pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for 13 yds to the UTC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
99.9%
Reggie Davis run for 2 yds to the UTC 41Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-5
99.9%
(06:40) No Huddle-Shotgun Schomburg,Luke pass complete short right to Phillips,Sam for 8 yards to the UTC49 (Smith,DeVonta) PENALTY UTC Ineligible Downfield on Pass 5 yards from UTC41 to UTC36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+3
99.9%
Reggie Davis run for 3 yds to the UTC 39Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Luke Schomburg pass incomplete to Sam PhillipsSimilar
Q3 4:59
4TH & 10
OWN 39
+85
99.9%
Clayton Crile punt for 46 yds , Caleb Downs returns for 85 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 18PUNT
12 plays · 27 yds · 5:350% → 0%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Gino Appleberry run for no gain to the UTC 25Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Gino Appleberry run for 9 yds to the UTC 34Similar
Q3 3:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
99.9%
Gino Appleberry run for 7 yds to the UTC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
99.9%
Gino Appleberry run for 1 yd to the UTC 42Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Gino Appleberry run for no gain to the UTC 42Similar
Q3 1:18
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+10
99.9%
Luke Schomburg pass complete to Javin Whatley for 10 yds to the ALA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
99.9%
Reggie Davis run for 3 yds to the ALA 45Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Reggie Davis run for no gain to the ALA 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 45
-5
99.9%
(15:00) PENALTY UTC False Start (Crim,Almarion) 5 yards from ALA45 to ALA50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 12
50
+2
100.0%
Reggie Davis run for 2 yds to the ALA 48Similar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
100.0%
Clayton Crile punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:03100% → 100%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
99.9%
Jam Miller run for 6 yds to the ALA 26Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Ty Simpson pass incomplete to Jalen HaleSimilar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-5
99.9%
PENALTY ALA False Start (McVay,Miles) 5 yards from ALA26 to ALA21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:19
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+78
99.9%
Ty Simpson run for 78 yds for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
Richard Young run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:430% → 0%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
100.0%
Gino Appleberry run for 2 yds to the UTC 25Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Luke Schomburg pass incomplete to Jamoi MayesSimilar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
Reggie Davis run for 1 yd to the UTC 26Similar
Q4 11:06
4TH & 7
OWN 26
+5
100.0%
Clayton Crile punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ALA 26 , Caleb Downs returns for 5 yds to the ALA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:52100% → 100%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
100.0%
Justice Haynes run for 4 yds to the ALA 30Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+1
100.0%
Justice Haynes run for 1 yd to the ALA 31Similar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+4
100.0%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Cole Adams for 4 yds to the ALA 35Similar
Q4 9:06
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
100.0%
James Burnip punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jamoi Mayes at the UTC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 2:370% → 0%
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
100.0%
Chris Houston run for 2 yds to the UTC 25Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
Chris Houston run for 1 yd to the UTC 26Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+1
100.0%
Chris Houston run for 1 yd to the UTC 25Similar
Q4 6:26
4TH & 8
OWN 25
-5
100.0%
PENALTY UTC False Start (Adams,D.J.) 5 yards from UTC25 to UTC20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:15
4TH & 13
OWN 20
-5
100.0%
PENALTY UTC False Start (Brown,Kameron) 5 yards from UTC20 to UTC15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:15
4TH & 18
OWN 15
0
100.0%
Clayton Crile punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 2:47100% → 100%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
100.0%
Richard Young run for 1 yd to the ALA 47Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+5
100.0%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Danny Lewis Jr. for 5 yds to the UTC 48Similar
Q4 5:02
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+5
100.0%
Dylan Lonergan run for 5 yds to the UTC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
100.0%
Dylan Lonergan pass complete to Cole Adams for 7 yds to the UTC 36Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+3
100.0%
Justice Haynes run for 3 yds to the UTC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
100.0%
Justice Haynes run for 33 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTCDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:190% → 0%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
100.0%
Reggie Davis run for 2 yds to the UTC 30Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+2
100.0%
Reggie Davis run for 2 yds to the UTC 32Similar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+1
100.0%
Reggie Davis run for 1 yd to the UTC 33Similar
Q4 0:46
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
100.0%
Clayton Crile punt for 67 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:38100% → 100%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
100.0%
Kneel down by Alabama at ALA20 for loss of 0 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-2
100.0%
Kneel down by Alabama at ALA18 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:39
Gino Appleberry 40 Yd Run (Clayton Crile Kick)
-0.6
TD · Q2 1:03
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Malik Benson for 20 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q1 1:30
Roydell Williams run for 11 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
+0.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com