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NMSU

New Mexico State 38 at Western Kentucky 29

WKU
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:38 · Zach Haynes punt for 45 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 9Home team on offense+0.4Pregame prior+7.9Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:06: Austin Reed pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 4 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK) — WKU win probability +11.7 pts (now 68%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:41: Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 7 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +18.5 pts (now 58%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:14: Eli Stowers run for 7 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +24.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:57: Mehki Miller 57 Yd Interception Return (Ethan Albertson Kick) — NMSU win probability +9.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:30: Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 15 yds for a TD (Malachi Corley pass to for Two-Point Conversion) — WKU win probability +8.2 pts (now 12%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7NMSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:38NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:49NMSU 4th & 9 at WKU 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    25.7%−3.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:55WKU 4th & 7 at WKU 27, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:48WKU 4th & 9 at NMSU 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    62.4%−2.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:48NMSU 4th & 1 at WKU 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.7%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:15WKU 4th & 1 at NMSU 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    55.5%−2.9
    38% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−3.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:15WKU 4th & 1 at NMSU 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.3%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    56.9%−1.3
    92% to make
    Punt
    50.3%−8.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:18NMSU 4th & 3 at WKU 46, down 4
    Close callPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    33.7%−2.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:39WKU 4th & 1 at WKU 39, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%−2.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:30WKU 4th & 5 at NMSU 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    36.3%−14.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:25NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−3.0
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:28WKU 4th & 7 at WKU 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−1.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:28NMSU 4th & 1 at WKU 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    50.3%−9.0
    28% to make
    Punt
    52.2%−7.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:00NMSU 4th & 19 at NMSU 34, up 9
    Close callWent for it · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.2%−0.6
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    94.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4NMSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:51WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:27WKU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:55NMSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:19NMSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:06WKU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:41NMSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:14NMSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−0.5
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:57NMSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:30WKU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0958% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
58.2%
Elijah Young run for 1 yd to the WKU 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
58.2%
Elijah Young run for 2 yds to the WKU 28Similar
Q1 13:51
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+72
58.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Elijah Young for 72 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0441% → 41%
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.7%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Kordell DavidSimilar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
58.7%
Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the NMSU 28Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
58.7%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Sone AupiuSimilar
Q1 12:38
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
59.3%
Zach Haynes punt for 45 yds, fair catch by K.D. Hutchinson at the WKU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 5:1159% → 65%
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
59.2%
Elijah Young run for 9 yds to the WKU 36Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+3
59.3%
Markese Stepp run for 3 yds to the WKU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
59.3%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Trevor BorlandSimilar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
59.3%
Markese Stepp run for 9 yds to the WKU 48Similar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
59.3%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 3 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
59.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 11 yds to the NMSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
59.4%
Austin Reed pass complete to River Helms for 12 yds to the NMSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
59.5%
Markese Stepp run for 10 yds to the NMSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
59.5%
Elijah Young run for 3 yds to the NMSU 13Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+13
65.3%
Austin Reed run for 13 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 3:3836% → 37%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
64.0%
Star Thomas run for 40 yds to the WKU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
63.1%
Diego Pavia run for 11 yds to the WKU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
63.0%
New Mexico State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WKU 25Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+2
63.2%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the WKU 23Similar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
63.5%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Jonathan BradySimilar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
63.5%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Jonathan BradySimilar
Q1 3:49
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+40
62.9%
Ethan Albertson 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4864% → 64%
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
64.3%
Elijah Young run for 3 yds to the WKU 27Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
64.2%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Easton MesserSimilar
Q1 3:43
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
63.9%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Dalvin SmithSimilar
Q1 2:55
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
63.7%
Cory Munson punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WKU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 3:0037% → 42%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
62.9%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the WKU 42 Diego Pavia fumbled, recovered by NMSU Diego Pavia No Huddle-Shotgun Pavia,Diego rush right for 3 yards gain to the WKU42 fumbled by Pavia,Diego at WKU47 recovered by NMS Pavia,Diego at WKU47 (Rice,Lonnie).Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
62.9%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Eli StowersSimilar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+12
63.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 12 yds to the WKU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
62.4%
Diego Pavia run for 12 yds to the WKU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
62.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 10 yds to the WKU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
63.4%
Monte Watkins run for 2 yds to the WKU 10Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
58.1%
Jonathan Brady run for 10 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7MISSED FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 2:5960% → 61%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
60.4%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for no gain to the WKU 27Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
60.2%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Elijah YoungSimilar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+10
59.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Reed,Austin pass incomplete short middle to Holiday,Jimmy broken up by Akles,Reggie PENALTY NMS Holding (Miller,Mehki) 10 yards from WKU27 to WKU37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+34
60.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 34 yds to the NMSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
62.1%
Elijah Young run for 2 yds to the NMSU 31Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 12
OPP 31
0
61.9%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 12
OPP 31
+3
60.9%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 3 yds to the NMSU 28Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 12
OPP 31
+3
60.9%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 3 yds to the NMSU 28Similar
Q2 11:48
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+46
60.7%
Lucas Carneiro 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 5:2939% → 50%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
60.6%
Monte Watkins run for no gain to the NMSU 28Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
60.9%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Jonathan BradySimilar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+16
61.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for 16 yds to the NMSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
59.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Bryce Childress for 5 yds to the NMSU 49Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
59.0%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Chris BellamySimilar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+4
59.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 4 yds to the WKU 47Similar
Q2 11:48
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+17
60.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trevor Stephens for 17 yds to the WKU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
58.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jamoni Jones for 12 yds to the WKU 18 for a 1ST down Western Kentucky Penalty, Defensive Holding (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
58.1%
Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the WKU 13Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+9
58.1%
Makhilyn Young run for 9 yds to the WKU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
50.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 4 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9TD
21 plays · 75 yds · 6:0954% → 68%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
53.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 11 yds to the WKU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
54.3%
Markese Stepp run for 5 yds to the WKU 41Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+12
55.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 12 yds Malachi Corley fumbled, recovered by WKU Malachi Corley for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
56.3%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Dalvin SmithSimilar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+7
56.1%
Elijah Young run for 7 yds to the NMSU 40Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+2
56.0%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 2 yds to the NMSU 38Similar
Q2 6:15
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+3
54.8%
Austin Reed run for 3 yds to the NMSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
57.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 9 yds to the NMSU 26Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+1
57.3%
Markese Stepp run for 1 yd to the NMSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
57.3%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to River HelmsSimilar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+6
57.2%
Elijah Young run for 6 yds to the NMSU 19Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+5
56.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 5 yds to the NMSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
57.3%
Markese Stepp run for 3 yds to the NMSU 11Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 7
OPP 11
0
56.0%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Trevor BorlandSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+6
54.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Davion Ervin-Poindexter for 6 yds to the NMSU 5Similar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+1
52.9%
Austin Reed run for 1 yd to the NMSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
67.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 4 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:4237% → 38%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.3%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the NMSU 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+20
63.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 20 yds to the NMSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
60.4%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Trent HudsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
61.2%
Star Thomas run for 8 yds to the WKU 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+1
60.2%
Eli Stowers run for 1 yd to the WKU 46Similar
Q3 12:18
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
61.7%
Zach Haynes punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 35 yds · 2:3964% → 67%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+26
63.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Markese Stepp for 26 yds to the WKU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
64.3%
Markese Stepp run for 3 yds to the WKU 33Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+2
64.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 2 yds to the WKU 35Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+4
63.7%
Elijah Young run for 4 yds to the WKU 39Similar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
67.4%
Cory Munson punt for 41 yds , Jonathan Brady returns for no gain to the NMSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 5:5834% → 58%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
65.9%
Trent Hudson run for 10 yds to the NMSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
65.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 6 yds to the NMSU 36Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+1
63.5%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the NMSU 37Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+9
64.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 9 yds to the NMSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
62.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Pavia,Diego pass incomplete short right to Brady,Jonathan PENALTY WKU Offside (Cooper,Niko) 5 yards from NMS46 to WKU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 5
OPP 49
+1
61.6%
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the WKU 48Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+6
61.7%
Monte Watkins run for 6 yds to the WKU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+32
62.0%
Star Thomas run for 32 yds to the WKU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
60.4%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Thomaz WhitfordSimilar
Q3 9:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
60.4%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the WKU 7Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
60.4%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the WKU 7Similar
Q3 3:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
41.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 7 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13MISSED FG
13 plays · 80 yds · 4:0549% → 50%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
48.5%
Elijah Young run for 4 yds to the WKU 19Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+3
48.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Elijah Young for 3 yds to the WKU 22Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+9
47.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Elijah Young for 9 yds to the WKU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
49.5%
Elijah Young run for 1 yd to the WKU 30Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+10
48.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Reed,Austin pass incomplete short middle to Ervin-Poindexter,Davion PENALTY NMS Holding (Union,Torren) 10 yards from WKU30 to WKU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+25
52.5%
Dalvin Smith run for 25 yds to the NMSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
55.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 6 yds to the NMSU 29Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+15
55.6%
Elijah Young run for 9 yds to the NMSU 20 for a 1ST down New Mexico State Penalty, Personal Foul (Myles Rowser) to the NMSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+24
55.6%
Elijah Young run for 9 yds to the NMSU 20 for a 1ST down New Mexico State Penalty, Personal Foul Targeting (Myles Rowser) to the NMSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
55.5%
Markese Stepp run for no gain to the NMSU 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
55.5%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Dalvin SmithSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
52.8%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Trevor BorlandSimilar
Q4 14:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
49.9%
Lucas Carneiro 22 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 2:0556% → 56%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
44.3%
Makhilyn Young run for 10 yds to the NMSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
43.8%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Chris BellamySimilar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
44.4%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the NMSU 33Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
44.9%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Trent HudsonSimilar
Q4 12:25
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
43.8%
Zach Haynes punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5746% → 43%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
46.1%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 3 yds to the WKU 35Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
46.3%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Trevor BorlandSimilar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
44.8%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Dalvin SmithSimilar
Q4 11:28
4TH & 7
OWN 35
+1
42.6%
Cory Munson punt for 31 yds , Jonathan Brady returns for 1 yd to the NMSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 7:1460% → 90%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
39.6%
Jamoni Jones run for 13 yds to the NMSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
37.2%
Jamoni Jones run for 4 yds to the WKU 48Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+5
36.8%
Jamoni Jones run for 5 yds to the WKU 43Similar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 1
OPP 43
0
36.6%
Jamoni Jones run for no gain to the WKU 43Similar
Q4 11:28
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+6
39.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 6 yds to the WKU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+17
36.7%
Jamoni Jones run for 17 yds to the WKU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
34.7%
Jamoni Jones run for 8 yds to the WKU 12Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 2
OPP 12
-10
34.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Jones,Jamoni rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WKU10 (Wheeler,Hosea) PENALTY NMS Holding (Vaipulu,AJ) 10 yards from WKU12 to WKU22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+5
35.3%
Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the WKU 17Similar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+13
36.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 13 yds to the WKU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
34.7%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the WKU 7Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
9.9%
Eli Stowers run for 7 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17INT TD
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:1711% → 3%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
10.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 5 yds to the WKU 30Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
11.6%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Craig Burt Jr.Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
10.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Reed,Austin pass incomplete deep right to Burt, Jr.,Craig broken up by Akles,Reggie PENALTY NMS Offside declined NMS Pass Interference (Akles,Reggie) 15 yards from WKU30 to WKU45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
12.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Davion Ervin-Poindexter for 7 yds to the NMSU 48Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 3
OPP 48
-57
3.4%
Mehki Miller 57 Yd Interception Return (Ethan Albertson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 1:213% → 12%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
2.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 4 yds to the WKU 33Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
2.9%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Craig Burt Jr.Similar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+17
2.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Easton Messer for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
50
0
3.1%
Austin Reed pass incomplete to Easton MesserSimilar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 10
50
+17
3.1%
Elijah Young run for 17 yds to the NMSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+18
3.7%
Elijah Young run for 18 yds to the NMSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
11.9%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 15 yds for a TD (Malachi Corley pass to for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · -8 yds · 1:2895% → 95%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
5.0%
Eli Stowers run for 5 yds to the NMSU 38Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+5
5.4%
Eli Stowers run for 5 yds to the NMSU 33Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 20
OWN 33
-1
6.0%
D. Pavia takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 19
OWN 34
-1
4.7%
D. Pavia takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:14
Eli Stowers run for 7 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)
-24.9
TD · Q3 3:41
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 7 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)
-18.5
TD · Q2 0:06
Austin Reed pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 4 yds for a TD (Lucas Carneiro KICK)
+11.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com