2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreNU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:02 · Atticus Bertrams punt for 46 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:54: Ben Bryant run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK) — NU win probability +7.7 pts (now 40%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:41: Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 24 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK) — NU win probability +17.4 pts (now 60%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 1:06: Jack Olsen 28 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +4.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:00: [NHSG] Kneel down by BRYANT, Ben at NWU19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00. — NU win probability +9.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 8:04: Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete — NU win probability +9.5 pts (now 81%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 8NU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 10:25WIS 4th & 9 at NU 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.0% before the snapGo for it76.8%−0.129% to convertField goalTheir call76.9%83% to makePunt76.4%−0.5average punt
- Q1 3:02WIS 4th & 2 at WIS 28, down 4Close callPunted · 72.4% before the snapGo for it72.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.6%−0.2average punt
- Q2 10:13WIS 4th & 3 at NU 42, down 11Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 62.2% before the snapGo for it62.4%52% to convertField goal60.8%−1.630% to makePuntTheir call61.4%−1.0average punt
- Q2 5:29WIS 4th & 7 at NU 22, down 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.9% before the snapGo for it46.8%−0.436% to convertField goalTheir call47.2%72% to makePunt41.0%−6.2average punt
- Q2 1:06NU 4th & 10 at WIS 10, up 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.5% before the snapGo for it65.4%−1.724% to convertField goalTheir call67.1%88% to makePunt58.8%−8.2average punt
- Q2 0:06WIS 4th & 4 at NU 49, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snapGo for it32.1%−0.248% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.3%average punt
- Q3 12:56NU 4th & 22 at NU 13, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snapGo for it75.5%−3.77% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.2%average punt
- Q3 8:04WIS 4th & 4 at NU 8, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call19.8%42% to convertField goal19.1%−0.790% to makePunt9.2%−10.6average punt
- Q3 6:05NU 4th & 2 at NU 16, up 21Close callPunted · 90.7% before the snapGo for it91.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.9%−0.6average punt
- Q3 4:26WIS 4th & 19 at WIS 40, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snapGo for it8.1%−3.211% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.2%average punt
- Q4 14:51NU 4th & 5 at NU 34, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snapGo for it95.0%−0.441% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.4%average punt
- Q4 9:04NU 4th & 7 at NU 32, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.5%−0.436% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.8%average punt
- Q4 6:28WIS 4th & 17 at WIS 46, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.4%−0.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q4 4:08NU 4th & 9 at NU 19, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.7%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 0 of 1NU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 4:12NU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.6%97% to makeGo for two26.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:54NU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call36.3%97% to makeGo for two36.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:41NU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.1%97% to makeGo for two52.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:11WIS Touchdown, down 15 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call2.3%−<0.197% to makeGo for two2.3%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWISDrive 1FG10 plays · 57 yds · 4:3076% → 75%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
75.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Riley Nowakowski for 5 yds to the WIS 33Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+5
75.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Will Pauling for 5 yds to the WIS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+35
75.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 35 yds to the NU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
75.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Braelon Allen for 8 yds to the NU 18Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 14
-1
75.6%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by Kenny Soares Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the NU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2TD12 plays · 79 yds · 6:0825% → 29%
Q1 10:20
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+12
75.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Raymond Niro III for 12 yds to the NU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
74.5%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Joseph Himon II for 5 yds to the WIS 30Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+8
74.6%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 8 yds to the WIS 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-3
74.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Joseph Himon II for a loss of 3 yards to the WIS 25Similar
Q1 4:12
3RD & 11
OPP 23
+23
70.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 23 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0671% → 70%
Q1 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
71.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Skyler Bell for 8 yds to the WIS 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4TD11 plays · 68 yds · 5:0829% → 40%
WISDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 2:3663% → 60%
Q2 12:49
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+12
62.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to C.J. Williams for 12 yds to the NU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+4
63.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Cade Yacamelli for 4 yds to the NU 43Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+1
63.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Hayden Rucci for 1 yd to the NU 42Similar
Q2 10:13
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
60.2%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 32 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the NU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6TD9 plays · 90 yds · 3:3241% → 60%
Q2 10:13
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+6
58.0%
Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 6 yds to the WIS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+19
57.8%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Raymond Niro III for 19 yds to the WIS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+24
40.2%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 24 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7MISSED FG5 plays · 36 yds · 1:0947% → 46%
NUDrive 8FG14 plays · 68 yds · 4:2361% → 76%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+41
39.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to A.J. Henning for 41 yds to the WIS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+12
36.9%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Marshall Lang for 12 yds to the WIS 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
36.6%
TYUS III, Anthony rush up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the WIS1 (PETERSON, Darryl). PENALTY Before the snap, NWU Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the WIS8 to the WIS13. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9PUNT8 plays · 23 yds · 0:5530% → 32%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
30.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Skyler Bell for 2 yds to the WIS 30Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+7
30.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Bryson Green for 7 yds to the WIS 37Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+8
30.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Will Pauling for 8 yds to the WIS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
23.0%
[NHSG] Kneel down by BRYANT, Ben at NWU19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11PUNT4 plays · -12 yds · 1:5977% → 79%
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-6
22.8%
Ben Bryant run for a loss of 6 yards to the NU 19 Ben Bryant fumbled, recovered by NU Ben Bryant [SG] QB Keeper BRYANT, Ben rush up the middle for a loss of 6 yards, BRYANT, Ben fumbled at NWU19 , recovered by NWU BRYANT, Ben at the NWU19, returned 0 yards to the NWU19, End of Play.Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 16
OWN 19
-6
23.9%
Ben Bryant sacked by Christian Alliegro for a loss of 6 yards to the NU 13Similar
Q3 12:56
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
21.4%
Hunter Renner punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Vinny Anthony II at the NU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12DOWNS12 plays · 40 yds · 4:5228% → 19%
Q3 12:56
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+8
27.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Will Pauling for 8 yds to the NU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
28.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Will Pauling for 8 yds to the NU 29Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 2
OPP 29
-10
29.1%
MORDECAI, Tanner scrambles up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the NWU26 (MUELLER, Xander), out of bounds. PENALTY WIS Holding on NELSON, Jack enforced 10 yards from the NWU29 to the NWU39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+9
28.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Vinny Anthony II for 9 yds to the NU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5988% → 91%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -9 yds · 1:3913% → 10%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
12.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Cade Yacamelli for 6 yds to the NU 45Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 4
OPP 45
-10
13.2%
MORDECAI, Tanner pass short to the left complete for 6 yards to DIKE, Chimere caught at the NWU41 and advanced to the NWU39 (JOHNSON, Theran). PENALTY WIS Holding on NELSON, Jack enforced 10 yards from the NWU45 to the WIS45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 14
OWN 45
+5
11.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Will Pauling for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 9
50
-10
12.5%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by Aidan Hubbard for a loss of 10 yards to the WIS 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15PUNT10 plays · 26 yds · 4:3593% → 96%
Q3 4:26
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+6
7.4%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 6 yds to the NU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+8
4.1%
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 8 yds to the NU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
3.6%
Hunter Renner punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Vinny Anthony II at the WIS 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16FUMBLE10 plays · 48 yds · 4:086% → 4%
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
6.1%
MORDECAI, Tanner pass to the right complete for -3 yards to YACAMELLI, Cade caught at the WIS16 and advanced to the WIS20 (GALLAGHER, Bryce). PENALTY NWU Offsides on PATE, Jaylen enforced 5 yards from the WIS23 to the WIS28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+6
6.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jackson Acker for 6 yds to the WIS 44Similar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
6.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Skyler Bell for 12 yds to the NU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+8
4.2%
Tanner Mordecai run for 8 yds to the NU 29 Tanner Mordecai fumbled, recovered by NU Garnett Hollis Jr. [NHSG] QB Keeper MORDECAI, Tanner rush up the middle for a gain of 8 yards, MORDECAI, Tanner fumbled at NWU29 forced by HEARD II, Rod, recovered by NWU HOLLIS JR., Garnett at the NWU29, returned 0 yards to the NWU29, End of Play, clock 10:43.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3998% → 98%
WISDrive 18PUNT10 plays · 22 yds · 2:363% → 2%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
3.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Will Pauling for 2 yds to the WIS 26Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+5
3.0%
MORDECAI, Tanner pass short to the right incomplete intended for GREEN, Bryson broken up by JOHNSON, Theran at the WIS31. PENALTY NWU Offsides on HAGARTY, Richie enforced 5 yards from the WIS26 to the WIS31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+8
3.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Bryson Green for 8 yds to the WIS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
3.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jackson Acker for 9 yds to the WIS 48Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+5
3.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Will Pauling for 5 yds to the NU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
3.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Skyler Bell for 3 yds to the NU 44Similar
Q4 6:28
4TH & 17
OWN 46
0
1.6%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 37 yds , returns for no gain to the NU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 2:2099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20TD14 plays · 70 yds · 3:571% → 4%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
1.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Skyler Bell for 3 yds to the WIS 33Similar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+9
1.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Will Pauling for 9 yds to the WIS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
1.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Skyler Bell for 4 yds to the NU 48Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+3
1.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Skyler Bell for 3 yds to the NU 45Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+11
1.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to C.J. Williams for 11 yds to the NU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+13
1.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Will Pauling for 13 yds to the NU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.4%
[SG] Kneel down by BRYANT, Ben at NWU24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:41
Ben Bryant pass complete to Cam Johnson for 24 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)
-17.4
KEY PLAY · Q3 8:04
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete
-9.5
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:00
[NHSG] Kneel down by BRYANT, Ben at NWU19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.
-9.3