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MSST

Mississippi State 10 at Texas A&M 51

TA&M
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · Kyle Field
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Win probability · TA&M
modelTA&M aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playTA&M scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:00 · Mike Wright run for no gain to the MSST 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 40Pregame prior+29.4Home team on offense+3.9Score differential+1.0Blowout margin+0.4Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 12:40: Randy Bond 52 yd FG GOOD — TA&M win probability +2.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 6:55: Kyle Ferrie 35 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +1.8 pts (now 14%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:58: Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Ainias Smith for 19 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK) — TA&M win probability +5.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:20: Jaylen Henderson run for 11 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK) — TA&M win probability +2.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:10: Shemar Stewart 43 Yd Fumble Return (Randy Bond Kick) — TA&M win probability +3.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TA&M made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 6:43TA&M 4th & 11 at MSST 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    84.4%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:42MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 13, tied
    Close callPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00TA&M 4th & 11 at MSST 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    83.3%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:00MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.2%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:40TA&M 4th & 10 at MSST 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.0%
    47% to make
    Punt
    84.7%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:55MSST 4th & 9 at TA&M 18, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    9.4%−2.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:43MSST 4th & 14 at MSST 21, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−1.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:48TA&M 4th & 6 at TA&M 29, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:12TA&M 4th & 1 at MSST 27, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:56MSST 4th & 22 at TA&M 31, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:44TA&M 4th & 13 at MSST 27, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:25MSST 4th & 19 at MSST 16, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:46TA&M 4th & 3 at MSST 17, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:18MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 23, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TA&M made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 11:47TA&M Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:32TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:58TA&M Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:20TA&M Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:10TA&M Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:00TA&M Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:5788% → 87%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
88.0%
Jaylen Henderson run for 12 yds to the TA&M 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
88.0%
Amari Daniels run for 1 yd to the TA&M 33Similar
Q1 14:44
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+31
88.0%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Noah Thomas for 31 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
88.0%
Jaylen Henderson run for 6 yds to the MSST 30Similar
Q1 14:44
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+13
88.0%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Noah Thomas for 13 yds to the MSST 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
88.0%
HENDERSON, Jaylen pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WALKER, Jahdae thrown to the MSU0; QB hurried by PURVIS, J.P.. PENALTY AM Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on ZUHN III, Trey enforced 5 yards from the MSU17 to the MSU22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+22
87.4%
Jaylen Henderson run for 22 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2INT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:5313% → 13%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
87.2%
Chris Parson run for 8 yds to the MSST 34Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 2
OWN 34
-5
87.1%
Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MSST 29Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+16
87.1%
Seth Davis run for 16 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
87.0%
Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MSST 40Similar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+2
87.1%
Chris Parson pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 2 yds to the MSST 42Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 13
OWN 42
0
87.1%
Chris Parson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 13
OWN 42
-5
87.2%
Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (Zavion Thomas) to the MSST 37Similar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 18
OWN 37
0
86.6%
Chris Parson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 3:0587% → 86%
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
86.9%
Amari Daniels run for 5 yds to the MSST 42Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+5
86.9%
Amari Daniels run for 5 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
86.9%
Jaylen Henderson run for 1 yd to the MSST 36Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+6
86.9%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 6 yds to the MSST 30Similar
Q1 9:48
3RD & 3
OPP 30
-8
86.9%
Jaylen Henderson sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 8 yards to the MSST 38Similar
Q1 6:43
4TH & 11
OPP 38
0
85.5%
Nik Constantinou punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MSST 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0114% → 15%
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
85.6%
Seth Davis run for 2 yds to the MSST 7Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+6
85.6%
Seth Davis run for 6 yds to the MSST 13Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 2
OWN 13
0
85.7%
Seth Davis run for no gain to the MSST 13Similar
Q1 4:42
4TH & 2
OWN 13
0
85.2%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the MSST 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5TD
5 plays · 31 yds · 2:1086% → 87%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
85.6%
Rueben Owens run for 7 yds to the MSST 24Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+4
85.6%
Ainias Smith run for 4 yds to the MSST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
85.6%
Jaylen Henderson run for 3 yds to the MSST 17Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+16
85.6%
Rueben Owens run for 16 yds to the MSST 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.1%
Amari Daniels run for 1 yd for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:3214% → 14%
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
86.3%
Seth Davis run for no gain to the MSST 12Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
86.3%
Chris Parson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:5587% → 87%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
87.0%
Amari Daniels run for 4 yds to the MSST 10Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+3
87.0%
Jaylen Henderson run for 3 yds to the MSST 7Similar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 3
OPP 7
-8
86.8%
Jaylen Henderson sacked by Jett Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the MSST 15Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+33
86.5%
Randy Bond 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0014% → 13%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
86.5%
Zavion Thomas run for 3 yds to the MSST 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
86.4%
Mike Wright run for 6 yds to the MSST 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
86.4%
Mike Wright run for no gain to the MSST 34Similar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
86.6%
Mike Wright run for no gain to the MSST 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2087% → 90%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
87.1%
Jaylen Henderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
87.1%
Jaylen Henderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
86.7%
Jaylen Henderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:40
4TH & 10
OPP 34
+52
89.6%
Randy Bond 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 5:4512% → 14%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
88.5%
Mike Wright pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 27 yds to the TA&M 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
88.0%
Simeon Price run for no gain to the TA&M 48Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
88.2%
Mike Wright run for 8 yds to the TA&M 40Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 2
OPP 40
-5
87.9%
PITTMAN, Jeffery rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the AM39 (JACKSON, McKinnley;DIGGS, Fadil). PENALTY Before the snap, MSU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the AM40 to the AM45. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+14
88.0%
Jeffery Pittman run for 14 yds to the TA&M 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
87.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 5 yds to the TA&M 26Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+7
87.5%
Mike Wright run for 7 yds to the TA&M 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
87.5%
Mike Wright run for 3 yds to the TA&M 16Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
87.5%
Jeffery Pittman run for no gain to the TA&M 16Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 7
OPP 16
-2
87.9%
Mike Wright sacked by Taurean York for a loss of 2 yards to the TA&M 18Similar
Q2 6:55
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+35
86.0%
Kyle Ferrie 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 1:5586% → 93%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+42
86.4%
Amari Daniels run for 42 yds to the MSST 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
87.2%
Amari Daniels run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 31Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+12
87.1%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Ainias Smith for 12 yds to the MSST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
87.2%
Rueben Owens run for no gain to the MSST 19Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
87.2%
Jaylen Henderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+19
92.5%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Ainias Smith for 19 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:159% → 8%
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
91.3%
Seth Davis run for 1 yd to the MSST 26Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
91.3%
Mike Wright run for no gain to the MSST 26Similar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
91.4%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:58
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-5
91.5%
Mississippi State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Zavion Thomas) to the MSST 21Similar
Q2 3:43
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
91.7%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TA&M 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 2:1892% → 97%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
92.4%
Jaylen Henderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+17
92.3%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Max Wright for 17 yds to the MSST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
92.5%
Jaylen Henderson run for no gain to the MSST 43Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
93.9%
Jaylen Henderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+14
93.6%
Jaylen Henderson run for 14 yds to the MSST 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
93.9%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Ainias Smith for 6 yds to the MSST 23Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+12
93.7%
Rueben Owens run for 12 yds to the MSST 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
96.5%
Jaylen Henderson run for 11 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 1:205% → 5%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.2%
Mike Wright run for 2 yds to the MSST 27Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
95.3%
Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:1296% → 96%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.2%
Amari Daniels run for 1 yd to the TA&M 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
96.1%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Noah Thomas for 5 yds to the TA&M 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
96.2%
Texas A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TA&M 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+3
96.1%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Amari Daniels for 3 yds to the TA&M 29Similar
Q3 12:48
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
96.2%
Nik Constantinou punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16FUMBLE RETURN TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:384% → 1%
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+46
96.3%
Seth Davis run for 46 yds to the TA&M 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
96.1%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-1
96.1%
Seth Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the TA&M 37Similar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 11
OPP 37
-5
96.2%
Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (Marcus Banks) to the TA&M 42Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 16
OPP 42
+43
99.3%
Shemar Stewart 43 Yd Fumble Return (Randy Bond Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17INT
9 plays · 55 yds · 3:481% → 1%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
99.4%
Jeffery Pittman run for 9 yds to the MSST 31Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+4
99.3%
Mike Wright run for 4 yds to the MSST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.3%
Lideatrick Griffin run for 2 yds to the MSST 37Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+3
99.3%
Mike Wright run for 3 yds to the MSST 40Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+9
99.3%
Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 9 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.3%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
99.3%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+28
99.3%
Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 28 yds to the TA&M 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.4%
Chris Parson pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 5:12100% → 100%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.6%
Rueben Owens run for 5 yds to the TA&M 25Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+15
99.6%
HENDERSON, Jaylen pass up the middle incomplete intended for SMITH, Ainias thrown to the AM40. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on RICHARDSON, Decamerion enforced 15 yards to the AM40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
99.7%
Texas A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TA&M 35Similar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+2
99.6%
Rueben Owens run for 2 yds to the TA&M 37Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 13
OWN 37
0
99.6%
Jaylen Henderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 13
OWN 37
+27
99.6%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Ainias Smith for 27 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
99.6%
Jaylen Henderson run for 4 yds to the MSST 32Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+5
99.6%
Rueben Owens run for 5 yds to the MSST 27Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 1
OPP 27
0
99.6%
Rueben Owens run for no gain to the MSST 27Similar
Q3 7:12
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+1
99.6%
Amari Daniels run for 1 yd to the MSST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.6%
HENDERSON, Jaylen pass deep to the left incomplete intended for THOMAS, Noah thrown to the MSU4; QB hurried by KEYS, Chris. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on PRESTON JR., Shawn enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the MSU11 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
99.6%
Rueben Owens run for no gain to the MSST 11Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.8%
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 11 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19MISSED FG
13 plays · 48 yds · 4:580% → 0%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+19
99.8%
Chris Parson pass complete to Freddie Roberson for 19 yds to the MSST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
99.8%
Seth Davis run for 3 yds to the MSST 43Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+7
99.8%
Chris Parson pass complete to Seth Davis for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
50
+3
99.8%
Seth Davis run for 3 yds to the TA&M 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+1
99.8%
Seth Davis run for 1 yd to the TA&M 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
99.8%
Chris Parson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 6
OPP 46
+15
99.9%
PARSON, Chris pass deep to the left incomplete intended for ROBERSON, Freddie thrown to the AM17, clock 14:12. PENALTY AM Pass Interference on HARMON, Deuce enforced 15 yards to the AM31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
99.8%
Chris Parson run for 12 yds to the TA&M 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
99.8%
Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (John Lewis) to the TA&M 24Similar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 15
OPP 24
-1
99.8%
Creed Whittemore sacked by Demani Richardson for a loss of 1 yard to the TA&M 25Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 16
OPP 25
0
99.8%
Chris Parson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 16
OPP 25
-6
99.8%
Chris Parson sacked by Shemar Turner for a loss of 6 yards to the TA&M 31Similar
Q4 11:56
4TH & 22
OPP 31
+49
99.9%
Kyle Ferrie 49 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 20FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 3:12100% → 100%
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
99.9%
Earnest Crownover run for 6 yds to the TA&M 37Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+6
99.9%
David Bailey run for 6 yds to the TA&M 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
99.9%
David Bailey run for 19 yds to the MSST 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
99.9%
David Bailey run for 14 yds to the MSST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
99.9%
Earnest Crownover run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 26Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 12
OPP 26
-1
99.9%
David Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 27Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 13
OPP 27
0
99.9%
Jaylen Henderson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:44
4TH & 13
OPP 27
+45
99.9%
Randy Bond 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 2:190% → 0%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Seth Davis run for 2 yds to the MSST 27Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
99.9%
Chris Parson pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 3 yds to the MSST 30Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-10
99.9%
PARSON, Chris scrambles up the middle for a gain of 11 yards to the MSU41 (THOMAS, Jayvon;BROOKS, Dalton). PENALTY MSU Holding on REESE IV, Albert enforced 10 yards from the MSU30 to the MSU20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-4
99.9%
Chris Parson sacked by DJ Hicks and Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy for a loss of 4 yards to the MSST 16Similar
Q4 6:25
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:39100% → 100%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
50
0
99.9%
Marcel Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 10
50
+3
99.9%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the MSST 47Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+13
99.9%
Marcel Reed run for 13 yds to the MSST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
99.9%
David Bailey run for 10 yds to the MSST 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
99.9%
Marcel Reed run for 3 yds to the MSST 21Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+4
99.9%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the MSST 17Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 3
OPP 17
0
99.9%
Marcel Reed run for no gain to the MSST 17Similar
Q4 2:46
4TH & 3
OPP 17
0
99.9%
Marcel Reed pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
100.0%
Chris Parson run for 1 yd to the MSST 18Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+5
100.0%
Chris Parson pass complete to Simeon Price for 5 yds to the MSST 23Similar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
100.0%
Chris Parson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
100.0%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TA&M 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · 1 yds · 1:18100% → 100%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
100.0%
David Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the TA&M 35Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+2
100.0%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the TA&M 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:58
Jaylen Henderson pass complete to Ainias Smith for 19 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
+5.4
TD · Q3 11:10
Shemar Stewart 43 Yd Fumble Return (Randy Bond Kick)
+3.1
FG · Q2 12:40
Randy Bond 52 yd FG GOOD
+2.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com