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MICH

Michigan 24 at Penn State 15

PSU
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:23 · Riley Thompson punt for 43 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 11Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior−13.9Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:07: Donovan Edwards run for 22 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — MICH win probability +7.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:29: Drew Allar run for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — PSU win probability +11.2 pts (now 40%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 11:40: Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the PSU 47 — MICH win probability +6.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 3:36: James Turner 22 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +8.4 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:15: Blake Corum run for 30 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — MICH win probability +10.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 11:10MICH 4th & 18 at MICH 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:23PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:41MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:17PSU 4th & 3 at MICH 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.1%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    41.1%−2.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:44PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 34, down 4
    Close callPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:22PSU 4th & 6 at MICH 37, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    29.7%−0.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    29.2%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:07PSU 4th & 1 at MICH 15, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    28.9%−1.0
    83% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−5.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:40MICH 4th & 1 at PSU 29, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    62.7%−3.6
    58% to make
    Punt
    55.4%−10.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:36MICH 4th & 4 at PSU 4, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.6%−1.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    52.9%−14.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:12PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 46, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:17MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 12, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%−2.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:11PSU 4th & 13 at PSU 25, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−3.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:14MICH 4th & 11 at PSU 44, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−1.0
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    83.7%−1.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:05PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 13, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:53MICH 4th & 2 at MICH 39, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%−1.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:21PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 30, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.6%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.8%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 11:56MICH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:07MICH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:29PSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    37.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    37.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:15MICH Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:59PSU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    5.4%−2.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 3:5065% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.1%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the MICH 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
35.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to AJ Barner for 12 yds to the MICH 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
35.1%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MICH 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-5
35.1%
Michigan Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MICH 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+3
35.1%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MICH 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-10
35.1%
J.J. McCarthy sacked by Dani Dennis-Sutton for a loss of 10 yards to the MICH 29Similar
Q1 11:10
4TH & 18
OWN 29
0
36.8%
Tommy Doman punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4737% → 37%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
36.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the PSU 27Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
36.6%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
36.4%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:23
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
36.6%
Riley Thompson punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4263% → 63%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
36.8%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the MICH 30 Blake Corum fumbled, recovered by MICH Blake Corum [SG] CORUM, Blake rush up the middle for no gain, CORUM, Blake fumbled at MIC30 forced by CARTER, Abdul, recovered by MIC CORUM, Blake at the MIC30, returned 0 yards to the MIC30, End of Play.Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
36.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 7 yds to the MICH 37Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
36.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
37.5%
Tommy Doman punt for 32 yds, downed at the PSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4FG
14 plays · 66 yds · 6:2438% → 41%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
37.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for no gain to the PSU 31Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+19
37.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
50
+5
38.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for 5 yds to the MICH 45Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+6
38.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 6 yds to the MICH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
38.1%
ALLAR, Drew pass to the right incomplete intended for LAMBERT-SMITH, KeAndre thrown to the MIC30. PENALTY MIC Pass Interference on JOHNSON, Will enforced at the spot of the foul for 9 yards to the MIC30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
38.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for 6 yds to the MICH 24Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+11
38.3%
Drew Allar run for 11 yds to the MICH 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
38.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for 9 yds to the MICH 4Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 1
OPP 4
0
38.3%
Nicholas Singleton run for no gain to the MICH 4Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+1
38.0%
Drew Allar run for 1 yd to the MICH 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
38.3%
Kaytron Allen run for no gain to the MICH 3Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
38.3%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
38.0%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
41.3%
Alex Felkins 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 5:2159% → 64%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
41.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 13 yds to the MICH 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
40.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the MICH 39Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-1
40.7%
Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 38Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+13
42.5%
J.J. McCarthy run for 13 yds to the PSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+22
40.9%
Donovan Edwards run for 22 yds to the PSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
40.2%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the PSU 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 23
-2
40.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Semaj Morgan for a loss of 2 yards to the PSU 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+19
41.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 19 yds to the PSU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
40.2%
EDWARDS, Donovan rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the PSU4 (DELUCA, Dominic;ELSDON, Tyler). PENALTY Before the snap, PSU Illegal Substitution enforced half the distance from the goal, 3 yards from the PSU6 to the PSU3. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
36.3%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1239% → 38%
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
38.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 9 yds to the PSU 34Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
40.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Malick Meiga for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 33Similar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
39.2%
Drew Allar run for 1 yd to the PSU 34Similar
Q2 9:44
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
38.2%
Riley Thompson punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 3:3761% → 72%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
38.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 11 yds to the MICH 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
38.1%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MICH 35Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+44
37.9%
Blake Corum run for 44 yds to the PSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
36.1%
Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 22Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 11
OPP 22
0
36.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for no gain to the PSU 22Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 11
OPP 22
+22
28.5%
Donovan Edwards run for 22 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:3830% → 40%
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
29.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 34 yds to the MICH 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
31.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the MICH 37Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+1
31.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the MICH 36Similar
Q2 3:22
3RD & 5
OPP 36
-1
30.7%
Kaytron Allen run for a loss of 1 yard to the MICH 37Similar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+13
29.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaden Saunders for 13 yds to the MICH 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
32.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the MICH 20Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+1
32.1%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the MICH 19Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+4
29.5%
Drew Allar run for 4 yds to the MICH 15Similar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+4
28.5%
Kaytron Allen pass complete to Drew Allar for 4 yds to the MICH 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
39.7%
Drew Allar run for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
34.1%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MICH 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10FUMBLE
6 plays · 24 yds · 3:2036% → 37%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
36.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for 5 yds to the PSU 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
36.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for no gain to the PSU 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
35.9%
Drew Allar run for 8 yds to the PSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
37.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 6 yds to the PSU 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+2
39.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the PSU 46Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+3
37.3%
Drew Allar run for 3 yds to the PSU 49 Drew Allar fumbled, recovered by MICH Makari Paige [NHSG] QB Keeper ALLAR, Drew rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards, ALLAR, Drew fumbled at PSU48 forced by BENNY, Rayshaun, recovered by MIC PAIGE, Makari at the PSU49, returned 0 yards to the PSU49, End of Play, clock 11:40.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11FG
13 plays · 45 yds · 8:0469% → 77%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
30.9%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the PSU 47Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+6
30.9%
J.J. McCarthy run for 6 yds to the PSU 41Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+3
30.9%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the PSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
30.9%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the PSU 36Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+7
30.9%
Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the PSU 29Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 1
OPP 29
0
30.8%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the PSU 29Similar
Q3 11:40
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+9
32.4%
J.J. McCarthy run for 9 yds to the PSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
29.6%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the PSU 18Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+9
29.6%
J.J. McCarthy run for 9 yds to the PSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
29.6%
Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 3 yards to the PSU 12Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+2
30.0%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the PSU 10Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
31.3%
Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the PSU 4Similar
Q3 3:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
22.9%
James Turner 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:2425% → 23%
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
25.1%
Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the PSU 30Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
25.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the PSU 32Similar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
25.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 6 yds to the PSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
26.3%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
26.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Theo Johnson for 2 yds to the PSU 40Similar
Q3 0:21
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+6
23.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 6 yds to the PSU 46Similar
Q3 0:12
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
23.4%
Riley Thompson punt for 51 yds, downed at the MICH 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4378% → 79%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
21.9%
J.J. McCarthy run for 2 yds to the MICH 5Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+2
22.1%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MICH 7Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 6
OWN 7
+5
23.0%
Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the MICH 12Similar
Q4 13:17
4TH & 1
OWN 12
0
22.0%
Tommy Doman punt for 47 yds , Daequan Hardy returns for no gain to the PSU 12 Penn State Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the PSU 28Similar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
20.9%
ALLAR, Drew pass to the left incomplete intended for CEPHAS, Dante thrown to the PSU35. PENALTY MIC Offsides on HARRELL, Jaylen enforced 5 yards from the PSU28 to the PSU33 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:0623% → 18%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 5
OWN 33
+1
22.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for 1 yd to the PSU 34Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 4
OWN 34
0
22.4%
Penn State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Drew Allar) to the PSU 25Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 13
OWN 25
0
19.1%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:11
4TH & 13
OWN 25
0
18.1%
Riley Thompson punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:5782% → 86%
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
17.7%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MICH 33Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+7
17.9%
Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the MICH 40Similar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+2
16.9%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MICH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
16.4%
MCCARTHY, J.J. pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BARNER, AJ thrown to the PSU30. PENALTY PSU Pass Interference on KING, Kalen enforced 15 yards to the PSU43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
15.5%
Michigan Penalty, False Start (Karsen Barnhart) to the PSU 48Similar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 15
OPP 48
-2
15.9%
J.J. McCarthy run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 17
50
+7
16.5%
J.J. McCarthy run for 7 yds to the PSU 43Similar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 10
OPP 43
-1
16.0%
Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 44Similar
Q4 8:14
4TH & 11
OPP 44
0
14.4%
Tommy Doman punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Daequan Hardy at the PSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0918% → 13%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
18.2%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the PSU 13Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 9
OWN 13
0
18.0%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 9
OWN 13
0
16.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Dante Cephas for no gain to the PSU 13Similar
Q4 7:05
4TH & 9
OWN 13
0
13.4%
Riley Thompson punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2890% → 90%
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
9.9%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the MICH 31Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+8
10.2%
Blake Corum run for 8 yds to the MICH 39Similar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 2
OWN 39
0
9.4%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the MICH 39Similar
Q4 4:53
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
9.6%
Tommy Doman punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3214% → 12%
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
14.2%
Nicholas Singleton run for 4 yds to the PSU 30Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
14.3%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
13.8%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:21
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
12.3%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19TD
1 play · 30 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
1.9%
Blake Corum run for 30 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:103% → 9%
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
3.4%
ALLAR, Drew pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for SAUNDERS, Kaden broken up by JOHNSON, Quinten at the PSU43, clock 04:09. PENALTY MIC Unsportsmanlike Conduct on JOHNSON, Quinten enforced 15 yards from the PSU25 to the PSU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
3.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
50
+6
3.4%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the MICH 44Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+11
3.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Dante Cephas for 11 yds to the MICH 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
4.1%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+11
4.0%
Drew Allar run for 11 yds to the MICH 22 for a 1ST down Michigan Penalty, Personal Foul (Cam Goode) to the MICH 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
4.4%
Penn State Penalty, False Start (Olumuyiwa Fashanu) to the MICH 16Similar
Q4 4:09
1ST & 15
OPP 16
+8
3.9%
Drew Allar run for 8 yds to the MICH 8Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
4.4%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
8.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Theo Johnson for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21END OF GAME
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:5397% → 97%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
3.4%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the PSU 43Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+4
3.2%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the PSU 39Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+9
3.1%
Blake Corum run for 9 yds to the PSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
2.9%
Kneel down by MCCARTHY, J.J. at PSU32 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 32
0
2.9%
Kneel down by MCCARTHY, J.J. at PSU34 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:29
Drew Allar run for 11 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+11.2
TD · Q4 4:15
Blake Corum run for 30 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
-10.4
FG · Q3 3:36
James Turner 22 yd FG GOOD
-8.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com