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MSU

Michigan State 3 at Ohio State 38

OSU
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:16 · Jesse Mirco punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the MSU 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 146Pregame prior+6.2Home team on offense+35.6Score differential+25.9Blowout margin+11.7Garbage-time factor+15.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+16.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:20: Marvin Harrison Jr. run for 19 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — MSU win probability +0.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:58: Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +0.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 5:38: Jonathan Kim 53 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +1.4 pts (now 3%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:30: TreVeyon Henderson run for 9 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +1.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:15: Kyle McCord pass complete to Cade Stover for 18 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +1.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 8:26MSU 4th & 5 at OSU 39, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.9%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:35MSU 4th & 7 at OSU 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:58MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.6%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:16MSU 4th & 6 at OSU 43, down 21
    Close callPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:10OSU 4th & 3 at OSU 9, up 21
    Close callPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:38MSU 4th & 3 at OSU 36, down 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.4%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:41MSU 4th & 11 at MSU 24, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:30MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 30, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:56OSU 4th & 8 at MSU 18, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:29MSU 4th & 6 at OSU 48, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:31OSU 4th & 6 at OSU 31, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:31MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 37, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:07MSU 4th & 18 at OSU 42, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:15OSU 4th & 6 at MSU 24, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:36MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 29, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:16OSU 4th & 6 at OSU 27, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:01MSU 4th & 13 at MSU 26, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:20OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:56OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:58OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:30OSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:15OSU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OSUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4098% → 98%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 5 yds to the OSU 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+13
97.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 13 yds to the OSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
97.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Cade Stover for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
50
+4
97.8%
Xavier Johnson run for 4 yds to the MSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
97.8%
Kyle McCord pass incomplete to Emeka EgbukaSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
97.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun McCord,Kyle pass incomplete short middle to Egbuka,Emeka, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MSU Pass Interference (Mangham,Jaden) 11 yard from MSU46 to MSU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
97.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 7 yds to the MSU 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+9
97.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Cade Stover for 9 yds to the MSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
97.5%
Marvin Harrison Jr. run for 19 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2MISSED FG
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:543% → 3%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
97.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 11 yds to the MSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
97.4%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Montorie Foster Jr.Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+20
97.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Alante Brown for 20 yds to the OSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
97.4%
Jaren Mangham run for 7 yds to the OSU 37Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 3
OPP 37
0
97.4%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Evan MorrisSimilar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+2
97.4%
Katin Houser run for 2 yds to the OSU 39Similar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 5
OPP 39
+56
97.1%
Jonathan Kim 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 1:3097% → 98%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
97.2%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Cade Stover for 12 yds to the MSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
97.2%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the MSU 45Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+19
97.2%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Cade Stover for 19 yds to the MSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
97.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 26 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:213% → 3%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
97.3%
Nathan Carter run for 27 yds to the OSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
97.3%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Montorie Foster Jr.Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
97.3%
Katin Houser run for 3 yds to the OSU 45Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 7
OPP 45
0
97.3%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Antonio Gates Jr.Similar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
97.2%
Ryan Eckley punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5TD
13 plays · 84 yds · 5:3797% → 98%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
97.3%
Chip Trayanum run for 3 yds to the OSU 19Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+3
97.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Julian Fleming for 3 yds to the OSU 22Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+25
97.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 25 yds to the OSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
97.4%
Kyle McCord pass incomplete to Emeka EgbukaSimilar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
97.4%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Chip Trayanum for 4 yds to the MSU 49Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+9
97.4%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Julian Fleming for 9 yds to the MSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
97.4%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 5 yds to the MSU 35Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+8
97.4%
Xavier Johnson run for 8 yds to the MSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
97.4%
Kyle McCord pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 4 yds to the MSU 23Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+2
97.4%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds to the MSU 21Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+12
97.4%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 12 yds to the MSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
97.1%
TreVeyon Henderson run for no gain to the MSU 9Similar
Q2 14:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
97.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 4:422% → 2%
Q2 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.9%
Jaren Mangham run for 4 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q2 14:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
97.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 10 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
97.9%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Jaren ManghamSimilar
Q2 14:58
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
97.9%
Jaren Mangham run for 4 yds to the MSU 43Similar
Q2 14:58
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+5
97.9%
Katin Houser run for 5 yds to the MSU 48Similar
Q2 14:58
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+5
97.8%
Jaren Mangham run for 5 yds to the OSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
97.8%
Nathan Carter run for 4 yds to the OSU 43Similar
Q2 14:58
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
97.8%
Katin Houser run for no gain to the OSU 43Similar
Q2 14:58
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
97.8%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Tyrell HenrySimilar
Q2 10:16
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
98.0%
Ryan Eckley punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0698% → 98%
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
98.0%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds to the OSU 4Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+5
98.0%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Cade Stover for 5 yds to the OSU 9Similar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 3
OWN 9
0
97.9%
TreVeyon Henderson run for no gain to the OSU 9Similar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 3
OWN 9
0
98.0%
Jesse Mirco punt for 44 yds , Tyrell Henry returns for no gain to the MSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8FG
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:322% → 3%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
97.8%
Nathan Carter run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 5
50
+7
97.8%
Nathan Carter run for 7 yds to the OSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
97.8%
Katin Houser sacked by Sonny Styles for a loss of 3 yards to the OSU 46Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 13
OPP 46
0
97.9%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Tyrell HenrySimilar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 13
OPP 46
+10
98.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 10 yds to the OSU 36Similar
Q2 5:38
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+53
96.6%
Jonathan Kim 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:0897% → 98%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
97.0%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 5 yds to the OSU 35Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
97.0%
Kyle McCord pass incomplete to Marvin Harrison Jr.Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+13
96.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 13 yds to the OSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
97.1%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 12 yds to the MSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+31
97.1%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 31 yds to the MSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
98.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 9 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:493% → 3%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.3%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the MSU 26Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
97.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Evan Morris for no gain to the MSU 26Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+3
97.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Evan Morris for 3 yds to the MSU 29 Michigan State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jaren Mangham) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-5
97.4%
Eckley,Ryan punt 53 yards to the OSU18 Ballard,Jayden return 9 yards to the OSU27, out of bounds at OSU27 PENALTY MSU Return From Out Of Bounds (Brown,Alante) 5 yards from MSU29 to MSU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
97.0%
Ryan Eckley punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jayden Ballard at the OSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 1:2699% → 100%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
98.7%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the OSU 29Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
98.7%
Kyle McCord pass incomplete to Julian FlemingSimilar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+7
98.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 7 yds to the OSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
98.4%
Kyle McCord pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 10 yds to the OSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
98.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Carnell Tate for 19 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
98.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Cade Stover for 9 yds to the MSU 26Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+8
98.5%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 8 yds to the MSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Cade Stover for 18 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.4%
Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:301% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.5%
Nathan Carter run for 5 yds to the MSU 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
99.4%
Nathan Carter run for no gain to the MSU 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.4%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Tyrell HenrySimilar
Q3 13:30
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+11
99.5%
Ryan Eckley punt for 58 yds , Jayden Ballard returns for 11 yds to the OSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14FG
5 plays · 59 yds · 1:34100% → 100%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+57
99.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 57 yds to the MSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
99.6%
Chip Trayanum run for 2 yds to the MSU 18Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
99.6%
Kyle McCord pass incomplete to Emeka EgbukaSimilar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 8
OPP 18
0
99.6%
Kyle McCord pass incomplete to Marvin Harrison Jr.Similar
Q3 11:56
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+36
99.7%
Jayden Fielding 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:270% → 0%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.7%
Katin Houser pass complete to Brennan Parachek for 4 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
99.7%
Katin Houser run for 4 yds to the MSU 33Similar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
99.7%
Katin Houser pass complete to Brennan Parachek for 2 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
99.7%
Katin Houser pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 13 yds to the MSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
99.7%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 5 yds to the OSU 47Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
99.7%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Christian FitzpatrickSimilar
Q3 11:56
3RD & 5
OPP 47
-1
99.7%
Katin Houser sacked by Tyleik Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the OSU 48Similar
Q3 8:29
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
99.8%
Ryan Eckley punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jayden Ballard at the OSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:58100% → 100%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
99.8%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the OSU 9Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+18
99.8%
Chip Trayanum run for 18 yds to the OSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
99.8%
Chip Trayanum run for 4 yds to the OSU 23Similar
Q3 8:29
2ND & 14
OWN 23
+8
99.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Chip Trayanum for 8 yds to the OSU 31Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Kyle McCord pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:31
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Jesse Mirco punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
13 plays · 30 yds · 5:240% → 0%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Antonio Gates Jr.Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
99.8%
Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MSU 27Similar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 11
OWN 27
+10
99.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Harold Joiner III for 10 yds to the MSU 37Similar
Q3 5:31
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+3
99.8%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the MSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Houser,Katin pass incomplete deep left to Henry,Tyrell PENALTY OSU Pass Interference (Hartford,Malik) 15 yards from MSU40 to OSU45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
99.8%
Jaren Mangham run for 7 yds to the OSU 38Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 3
OPP 38
0
99.8%
Jaren Mangham run for no gain to the OSU 38Similar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+4
99.8%
Jaren Mangham run for 4 yds to the OSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.8%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Alante BrownSimilar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-10
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Houser,Katin pass complete short right to Carr,Maliq for 9 yards to the OSU25 (Carter,Ja'Had; Simpson-Hunt,Calvin) PENALTY MSU Holding (Duplain,J.D.) 10 yards from OSU34 to OSU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 20
OPP 44
0
99.8%
Katin Houser pass incomplete to Antonio Gates Jr.Similar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 20
OPP 44
+2
99.8%
Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the OSU 42Similar
Q3 0:07
4TH & 18
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Ryan Eckley punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jayden Ballard at the OSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18MISSED FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 5:45100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
99.8%
Chip Trayanum run for no gain to the OSU 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+27
99.8%
Xavier Johnson run for 27 yds to the OSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
99.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Carnell Tate for 7 yds to the OSU 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+10
99.8%
Chip Trayanum run for 10 yds to the MSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
99.8%
Chip Trayanum run for 6 yds to the MSU 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+14
99.8%
Lincoln Kienholz pass complete to Jelani Thurman for 14 yds to the MSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
99.8%
Evan Pryor run for 5 yds to the MSU 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+4
99.8%
Lincoln Kienholz pass complete to Jelani Thurman for 4 yds to the MSU 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 19
-5
99.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Pryor,Evan rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU16 (Talley,Ken) PENALTY OSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from MSU19 to MSU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:27
3RD & 6
OPP 24
0
99.9%
Lincoln Kienholz pass incomplete to Jayden BallardSimilar
Q4 9:15
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+42
99.9%
Jayden Fielding 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:390% → 0%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
99.9%
Nathan Carter run for 6 yds to the MSU 30Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Nathan Carter run for no gain to the MSU 30Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 4
OWN 30
-5
99.9%
PENALTY MSU False Start 5 yards from MSU30 to MSU25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Harold Joiner III for 4 yds to the MSU 29Similar
Q4 6:36
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Brandon Inniss at the OSU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:20100% → 100%
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
99.9%
Evan Pryor run for 3 yds to the OSU 20Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+5
99.9%
Evan Pryor run for 5 yds to the OSU 25Similar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Evan Pryor run for 2 yds to the OSU 27Similar
Q4 4:16
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Jesse Mirco punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the MSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 2:150% → 0%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
99.9%
Harold Joiner III run for 2 yds to the MSU 27Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+3
100.0%
Harold Joiner III run for 3 yds to the MSU 30Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+4
100.0%
Andrew Schorfhaar pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 4 yds to the MSU 26Similar
Q4 2:01
4TH & 13
OWN 26
0
100.0%
Michael O'Shaughnessy punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 22END OF GAME
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:01100% → 100%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
100.0%
Evan Pryor run for 5 yds to the MSU 44Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+2
100.0%
Evan Pryor run for 2 yds to the MSU 42Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & 3
OPP 42
-5
100.0%
PENALTY OSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from MSU42 to MSU47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+4
100.0%
Evan Pryor run for 4 yds to the MSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 5:38
Jonathan Kim 53 yd FG GOOD
-1.4
TD · Q2 3:30
TreVeyon Henderson run for 9 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
+1.2
TD · Q2 0:15
Kyle McCord pass complete to Cade Stover for 18 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)
+1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com