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Win probability · MIZ
modelMIZ aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playMIZ scoreTENN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · [NHSG] Kneel down by MIZ at MIZ22 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 12:25: Joe Milton III pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 46 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK) — TENN win probability +5.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:33: Cody Schrader run for 7 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK) — MIZ win probability +6.0 pts (now 54%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Harrison Mevis 46 yd FG GOOD — MIZ win probability +7.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:04: Brady Cook run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — MIZ win probability +12.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
- FG · Q3 2:38: Harrison Mevis 23 yd FG GOOD — MIZ win probability +5.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MIZ made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TENN made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 10:11TENN 4th & 9 at MIZ 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 52.2% before the snapGo for it52.2%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.2%average punt
- Q2 14:16MIZ 4th & 14 at TENN 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.7% before the snapGo for it48.8%−0.816% to convertField goalTheir call49.6%84% to makePunt47.1%−2.5average punt
- Q2 9:08TENN 4th & 6 at MIZ 48, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snapGo for it47.4%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.5%average punt
- Q2 4:11MIZ 4th & 7 at MIZ 44, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snapGo for it54.3%−0.537% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.8%average punt
- Q3 13:09TENN 4th & 4 at TENN 26, down 6Close callPunted · 36.2% before the snapGo for it36.9%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 7:42TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 27, down 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snapGo for it20.4%−1.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.5%average punt
- Q3 2:38MIZ 4th & 6 at TENN 6, up 12Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.8% before the snapGo for it83.8%−0.431% to convertField goalTheir call84.1%91% to makePunt75.4%−8.8average punt
- Q3 0:49TENN 4th & 12 at MIZ 38, down 15Close callPunted · 10.6% before the snapGo for it10.4%−0.324% to convertField goal10.7%38% to makePuntTheir call10.6%−0.1average punt
- Q4 11:49MIZ 4th & 12 at MIZ 36, up 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snapGo for it92.9%−1.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.1%average punt
- Q4 4:35TENN 4th & 13 at TENN 22, down 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 3:06MIZ 4th & 14 at MIZ 20, up 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 0:34TENN 4th & 23 at MIZ 23, down 29Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.17% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%70% to makePunt0.0%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TENN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 12:25TENN Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.1%97% to makeGo for two53.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:33MIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.3%97% to makeGo for two53.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:04MIZ Touchdown, up 12 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick78.2%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call78.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:21MIZ Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:50MIZ Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMIZDrive 1INT6 plays · 49 yds · 3:0445% → 46%
TENNDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:4555% → 54%
MIZDrive 3FG22 plays · 72 yds · 10:5546% → 49%
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
46.1%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 1 yd to the MIZ 28Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 14
OWN 23
+11
45.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 11 yds to the MIZ 34Similar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+9
46.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 9 yds to the MIZ 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+6
46.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 6 yds to the TENN 49Similar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+6
46.5%
Brady Cook pass complete to Theo Wease Jr. for 6 yds to the TENN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
46.6%
Brady Cook pass complete to Brett Norfleet for 7 yds to the TENN 36Similar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
46.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Cody Schrader for 12 yds to the TENN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
46.7%
SCHRADER, Cody rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the TEN5 (THOMAS, Jourdan). PENALTY Before the snap, MIZ Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the TEN8 to the TEN13. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
-2
46.7%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for a loss of 2 yards to the TENN 15Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+8
50.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 8 yds to the TENN 7Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
-7
50.0%
Brady Cook sacked by Omarr Norman-Lott for a loss of 7 yards to the TENN 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5150% → 56%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
49.3%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 14 yds to the MIZ 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-8
48.5%
Jaylen Wright run for 2 yds to the TENN 45 Tennessee Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TENN 44Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 17
OWN 46
+8
49.8%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 8 yds to the MIZ 46Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+46
44.2%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 46 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 5TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5246% → 54%
TENNDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 27 yds · 1:2549% → 49%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
51.5%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 23 yds to the TENN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
49.7%
SMALL, Jabari rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the TEN50 (HOPPER, Ty'Ron). PENALTY TEN Holding on CAMPBELL JR., John enforced 10 yards from the TEN48 to the TEN38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 20
OWN 38
+9
51.3%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 9 yds to the TENN 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 7PUNT11 plays · 41 yds · 4:5751% → 55%
TENNDrive 8FUMBLE10 plays · 73 yds · 3:5144% → 49%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
55.7%
Joe Milton III pass complete to McCallan Castles for 5 yds to the TENN 14Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+14
55.0%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 14 yds to the TENN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+15
54.3%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
50
+8
52.0%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 8 yds to the MIZ 42Similar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
52.0%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 3 yds to the MIZ 33Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+15
50.8%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 15 yds Jaylen Wright fumbled, recovered by MIZ Chuck Hicks [NHSG] MILTON III, Joe pass up the middle complete for 15 yards to WRIGHT, Jaylen caught at the MIZ27, WRIGHT, Jaylen fumbled at MIZ22 forced by NEWSON, Triston, recovered by MIZ HICKS, Chuck at the MIZ18, returned 0 yards to the MIZ18, End of Play, clock 00:20.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 9FG6 plays · 53 yds · 0:2056% → 68%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
58.4%
Brady Cook pass complete to Mookie Cooper for 9 yds to the TENN 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4640% → 37%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
60.3%
Joe Milton III run for a loss of 6 yards to the TENN 14 fumbled, recovered by TENN Cooper Mays [NHSG] QB Keeper MILTON III, Joe rush to the right for a loss of 6 yards, MILTON III, Joe fumbled at TEN17 , recovered by TEN MAYS, Cooper at the TEN14, returned 0 yards to the TEN14, End of Play.Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+11
61.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Kaleb Webb for 11 yds to the TENN 26Similar
Q3 13:09
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
62.9%
Jackson Ross punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Kris Abrams-Draine at the MIZ 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 11TD7 plays · 80 yds · 3:0564% → 79%
Q3 13:09
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+48
63.9%
Brady Cook pass complete to Marquis Johnson for 48 yds to the TENN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 2:1624% → 21%
MIZDrive 13FG10 plays · 59 yds · 5:0480% → 90%
Q3 7:42
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+32
80.8%
Brady Cook run for 17 yds to the TENN 45 for a 1ST down Tennessee Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Omarr Norman-Lott) to the TENN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
81.0%
Brady Cook pass complete to Cody Schrader for no gain to the TENN 30Similar
Q3 7:42
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+23
80.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Cody Schrader for 23 yds to the TENN 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14PUNT9 plays · 37 yds · 1:4914% → 12%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
86.4%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Kaleb Webb for 12 yds to the TENN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+20
85.0%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 20 yds to the MIZ 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 15
OPP 41
+13
84.8%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 13 yds to the MIZ 28Similar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 2
OPP 28
0
83.4%
SAMPSON, Dylan rush to the left for a gain of 23 yards to the MIZ5 (CHARLESTON, Joseph). PENALTY TEN Holding on WHITE, Squirrel declined TEN Holding on WARREN, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the MIZ28 to the MIZ38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 15PUNT9 plays · 35 yds · 4:0090% → 94%
Q4 11:49
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
93.5%
Luke Bauer punt for 32 yds, Dee Williams return -1 yd to the TENN 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16FUMBLE4 plays · 35 yds · 0:529% → 9%
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
90.7%
MILTON III, Joe pass to the left incomplete intended for WHITE, Squirrel thrown to the TEN46. PENALTY MIZ Pass Interference on CARNELL, Daylan enforced 15 yards to the TEN46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
90.5%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Dylan Sampson for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 6
50
+7
90.3%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Kaleb Webb for 7 yds to the MIZ 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
90.7%
Joe Milton III run for 9 yds to the MIZ 34 fumbled, recovered by MIZ Jaylon Carlies [NHSG] QB Keeper MILTON III, Joe rush up the middle for a gain of 9 yards, MILTON III, Joe fumbled at MIZ47 , recovered by MIZ CARLIES, Jaylon at the MIZ34, returned 0 yards to the MIZ34, End of Play, clock 10:57.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 17TD10 plays · 66 yds · 4:3695% → 99%
Q4 10:57
2ND & 2
OWN 42
-10
94.9%
SCHRADER, Cody rush to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the MIZ45 (HERRING, Elijah). PENALTY MIZ Holding on JOHNSON, Cam'Ron enforced 10 yards from the MIZ42 to the MIZ32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 17
OWN 27
+15
94.2%
Luther Burden III run for no gain to the MIZ 27 for a 1ST down Tennessee Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Gabe Jeudy-Lally) to the MIZ 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+21
99.3%
Brady Cook pass complete to Luther Burden III for 21 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18INT TD3 plays · 8 yds · 0:311% → 0%
TENNDrive 19PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:150% → 0%
MIZDrive 20PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:29100% → 100%
Q4 3:06
4TH & 14
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Luke Bauer punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Dee Williams at the TENN 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21MISSED FG14 plays · 28 yds · 2:320% → 0%
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
99.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Dylan Sampson for 9 yds to the MIZ 42Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+9
99.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jacob Warren for 9 yds to the MIZ 24Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 1
OPP 24
-10
99.9%
SAMPSON, Dylan rush up the middle for no gain to the MIZ24 (HICKS, Chuck). PENALTY TEN Holding on MINCEY, Gerald enforced 10 yards from the MIZ24 to the MIZ34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-15
100.0%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete Tennessee Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Unnecessary Roughness on SPRAGGINS, Javontez enforced (-15 Yards) to the MIZ 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIZDrive 22END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:04
Brady Cook run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+12.3
FG · Q2 0:00
Harrison Mevis 46 yd FG GOOD
+7.9
TD · Q2 10:33
Cody Schrader run for 7 yds for a TD (Harrison Mevis KICK)
+6