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SHSU

Sam Houston 42 at Louisiana Tech 27

LT
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadSHSU aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreSHSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:32 · Hank Bachmeier pass intercepted
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:47: Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Jax Sherrard for 8 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK) — SHSU win probability +13.5 pts (now 74%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:41: Keith Willis Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +16.7 pts (now 46%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:08: Keegan Shoemaker run for 21 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK) — SHSU win probability +15.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:36: Kyle Maxwell pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 35 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +10.7 pts (now 38%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:04: Keith Willis Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +14.7 pts (now 23%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 7 of 8SHSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:09LT 4th & 4 at LT 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:22SHSU 4th & 17 at SHSU 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:12LT 4th & 8 at SHSU 35, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.3%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    68.2%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:52SHSU 4th & 3 at SHSU 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:02LT 4th & 8 at LT 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:10SHSU 4th & 10 at SHSU 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:24LT 4th & 8 at LT 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:55SHSU 4th & 10 at SHSU 47, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:10LT 4th & 8 at SHSU 15, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−1.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    40.7%−4.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:11SHSU 4th & 27 at SHSU 45, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−4.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:19LT 4th & 1 at LT 48, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.8%−4.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:39LT 4th & 6 at SHSU 33, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    8.5%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:29LT 4th & 2 at SHSU 7, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    7.2%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−4.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:42SHSU 4th & 10 at LT 42, up 8
    Close callPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    91.7%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3SHSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:11SHSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:30SHSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:47SHSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:41LT Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:08SHSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:36LT Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:49SHSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:04LT Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.9 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.3%−1.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.2%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:15SHSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SHSUDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4929% → 30%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
71.5%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Jax Sherrard for 6 yds to the SHSU 31Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
71.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+17
71.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Jax Sherrard for 17 yds to the SHSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
71.4%
Noah Smith run for 4 yds to the LT 48Similar
Q1 13:11
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+48
70.5%
Adrian Murdaugh run for 48 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5571% → 70%
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
70.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tyre Shelton for 3 yds to the LT 31Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-1
70.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 30Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+4
69.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 4 yds to the LT 34Similar
Q1 11:09
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
69.5%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:4731% → 31%
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
69.5%
Adrian Murdaugh run for 7 yds to the SHSU 33Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 3
OWN 33
-4
69.1%
Noah Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the SHSU 29Similar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 7
OWN 29
-10
69.1%
Keegan Shoemaker sacked by Jesse Evans and Rason Williams II for a loss of 10 yards to the SHSU 19Similar
Q1 9:22
4TH & 17
OWN 19
0
69.0%
Jadon Cardell punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4FG
5 plays · 12 yds · 2:1069% → 69%
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
69.3%
Tyre Shelton run for 10 yds to the SHSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
69.4%
Tyre Shelton run for 4 yds to the SHSU 33Similar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
69.5%
Hank Bachmeier run for no gain to the SHSU 33Similar
Q1 9:22
3RD & 6
OPP 33
-2
69.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Dedrick Latulas for a loss of 2 yards to the SHSU 35Similar
Q1 7:12
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+53
69.0%
Buck Buchanan 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2031% → 31%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.9%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
68.9%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 24Similar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-5
69.2%
Sam Houston Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SHSU 19Similar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+13
69.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 13 yds to the SHSU 32Similar
Q1 5:52
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
68.8%
Jadon Cardell punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Smoke Harris at the LT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:3768% → 68%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
68.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Ryan Rivera for 17 yds Ryan Rivera fumbled, recovered by LT for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
69.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
68.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+2
68.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Charvis Thornton for 2 yds to the LT 49Similar
Q1 4:02
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
67.6%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Emon Allen at the SHSU 12Similar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
67.8%
(04:02) SMITH, Noah rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the SAM17 (HEARD, Myles). PENALTY SAM Personal Foul on WEAVER, Tobias enforced half the distance from the goal, 6 yards from the SAM12 to the SAM6 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:5232% → 33%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 16
OWN 6
+7
68.0%
Adrian Murdaugh run for 7 yds to the SHSU 13Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+4
67.9%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Adrian Murdaugh for 4 yds to the SHSU 17Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+19
68.2%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 19 yds to the SHSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
67.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
66.8%
Adrian Murdaugh run for no gain to the SHSU 36Similar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
67.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:10
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
67.3%
Jadon Cardell punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:3967% → 66%
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
66.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Ryan Rivera for 8 yds to the LT 38Similar
Q1 0:26
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+4
68.0%
Tyre Shelton run for 4 yds to the LT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-4
67.7%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Issiah Nixon and Trevor Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the LT 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 38
+6
66.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 6 yds to the LT 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
66.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:24
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
66.2%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 3:4335% → 45%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+29
65.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 29 yds to the LT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
64.7%
Adrian Murdaugh run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 34Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 11
OPP 34
-4
64.7%
Adrian Murdaugh run for a loss of 4 yards to the LT 38Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 15
OPP 38
+19
64.6%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for 19 yds to the LT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
63.5%
Tobias Weaver run for 6 yds to the LT 13Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 4
OPP 13
0
63.5%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+10
63.8%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 10 yds to the LT 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
54.8%
Issiah Nixon run for 3 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10FUMBLE
6 plays · 75 yds · 3:1057% → 55%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.6%
Tyre Shelton run for 4 yds to the LT 29Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
56.9%
Tyre Shelton run for 8 yds to the LT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
57.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Ryan Rivera for 9 yds to the LT 46Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+1
58.0%
Charvis Thornton run for 1 yd to the LT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
54.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tru Edwards for 6 yds to the SHSU 47Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+47
54.5%
Charvis Thornton rush up the middle for a gain of 47 yards, fumbled at SAM0, recovered by SAM TEAM at the SAM0 to the SAM0, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 3:2547% → 51%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
52.9%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
52.9%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 1 yd to the SHSU 21Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+15
53.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Adrian Murdaugh for 15 yds to the SHSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
51.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
51.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 9 yds to the SHSU 45Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
50.8%
Adrian Murdaugh run for 2 yds to the SHSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
50.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
49.3%
Tobias Weaver run for 5 yds to the LT 48Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
48.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:14
4TH & 5
OPP 48
-5
49.5%
Sam Houston Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jadon Cardell) to the SHSU 47Similar
Q2 3:55
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
49.3%
Jadon Cardell punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:4549% → 50%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
49.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 9 yds to the LT 37Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+7
50.1%
Hank Bachmeier run for 7 yds to the LT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-4
49.1%
Hank Bachmeier run for a loss of 4 yards to the LT 40Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 14
OWN 40
+43
47.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Solo Lewis for 43 yds to the SHSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
51.5%
Hank Bachmeier run for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 18Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+4
50.9%
Tyre Shelton run for 4 yds to the SHSU 14Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 7
OPP 14
-1
49.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the SHSU 15Similar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+32
49.7%
Jacob Barnes 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.7%
[NHSG] Kneel down by SAM at SAM25 (team loss of 0), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:3148% → 48%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
48.3%
Smoke Harris run for 1 yd to the LT 36Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+19
48.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 19 yds Cyrus Allen fumbled, recovered by SHSU Caleb Weaver (14:22) [NHSG] BACHMEIER, Hank pass to the right complete for 19 yards to ALLEN, Cyrus caught at the LAT49, ALLEN, Cyrus fumbled at SAM45 forced by FISHER, David, recovered by SAM WEAVER, Caleb at the SAM45, returned 7 yards to the LAT48 (GILBERT, Jerren;FISHER, David), out of bounds, clock 14:08.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 3:2158% → 74%
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
42.5%
Adrian Murdaugh run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 49Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+7
42.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 7 yds to the LT 42Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+5
42.5%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Offsides (Zion Nason) to the LT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+23
41.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Jax Sherrard for 23 yds to the LT 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
40.9%
run for 5 yds to the LT 9Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+1
39.7%
Noah Smith run for 1 yd to the LT 8Similar
Q3 10:47
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+8
26.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Jax Sherrard for 8 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16TD
9 plays · 85 yds · 3:5731% → 46%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
30.8%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 9 yds to the LT 24Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+2
32.0%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 2 yds to the LT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+44
30.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 44 yds to the SHSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
33.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 9 yds to the SHSU 21Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+1
33.1%
Tyre Shelton run for 1 yd to the SHSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
32.4%
Tyre Shelton run for no gain to the SHSU 20Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
30.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+15
29.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tru Edwards for 15 yds to the SHSU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
46.2%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 17TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:3362% → 81%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
37.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 38 yds to the LT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
34.3%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 16 yds to the LT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
18.9%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 21 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:3225% → 38%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
24.5%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jerren Gilbert) to the LT 15Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 20
OWN 15
-15
24.0%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the LT 23Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+39
24.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 39 yds to the SHSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
27.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
27.3%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 3 yds to the SHSU 35Similar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+35
37.9%
Kyle Maxwell pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 35 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:2568% → 71%
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
31.9%
Adrian Murdaugh run for 5 yds to the SHSU 30Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
30.5%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for 4 yds to the SHSU 34Similar
Q3 2:07
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
31.0%
Issiah Nixon run for 5 yds to the SHSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+23
29.2%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 23 yds to the LT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
26.2%
Tobias Weaver run for 2 yds to the LT 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
-4
26.0%
Tobias Weaver run for a loss of 4 yards to the LT 40Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 12
OPP 40
0
26.3%
Sam Houston Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Intentional Grounding on SHOEMAKER, Keegan enforced a result of a (Yards) to the LT 49Similar
Q4 14:19
4TH & 22
50
-5
29.0%
Sam Houston Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jadon Cardell) to the SHSU 45Similar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 27
OWN 45
0
29.3%
Jadon Cardell punt for 36 yds, downed at the LT 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:5230% → 29%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+20
30.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Ryan Rivera for 20 yds to the LT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
31.7%
Tyre Shelton run for 2 yds to the LT 41Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
30.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+7
28.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 7 yds to the LT 48Similar
Q4 12:19
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
29.0%
Tyre Shelton run for no gain to the LT 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 21TD
4 plays · 48 yds · 2:3080% → 93%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+44
20.4%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Jax Sherrard for 44 yds to the LT 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
18.7%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 1 yd to the LT 3Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
18.0%
Issiah Nixon run for 2 yds to the LT 1Similar
Q4 9:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.4%
Issiah Nixon run for 1 yd for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22TD
12 plays · 64 yds · 4:3711% → 23%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
10.9%
Cyrus Allen run for a loss of 3 yards to the LT 33Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 13
OWN 33
0
9.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+30
8.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 30 yds to the SHSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
10.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
10.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+4
9.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 4 yds to the SHSU 33Similar
Q4 7:39
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+18
9.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 18 yds to the SHSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
9.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+4
9.7%
Hank Bachmeier run for 4 yds to the SHSU 11Similar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+4
8.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tru Edwards for 4 yds to the SHSU 7Similar
Q4 5:29
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+6
8.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 6 yds to the SHSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.8%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:2289% → 93%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
11.2%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Roughing the Passer on DURHAM-CAMPBELL, Ezekiel enforced (15 Yards) to the SHSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
9.8%
Issiah Nixon run for 3 yds to the SHSU 47Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+11
9.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Thomas Jewett for 11 yds to the LT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
6.0%
Issiah Nixon run for a loss of 2 yards to the LT 44Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+2
6.1%
Keegan Shoemaker run for 2 yds to the LT 42Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
6.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:42
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
6.6%
Jadon Cardell punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 24INT TD
2 plays · 33 yds · 0:279% → 3%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+33
9.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 33 yds to the SHSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-45
3.2%
Kavian Gaither 45 Yd Interception Return (Colby Sessums Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 25INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:383% → 2%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
2.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Jacob Fields for 6 yds to the LT 19Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+4
2.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 4 yds to the LT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
2.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
2.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:41
Keith Willis Jr. run for 5 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)
+16.7
TD · Q3 5:08
Keegan Shoemaker run for 21 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK)
-15.4
TD · Q4 5:04
Keith Willis Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)
+14.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com