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ALA

Alabama 49 at Kentucky 21

UK
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadALA aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreALA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:20 · Wilson Berry punt for 33 yds , returns for no gain to the ALA 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 28Home team on offense−7.5Pregame prior−25.6Score differential−3.0Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:12: Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +2.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:30: Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 6 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — ALA win probability +11.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 10:14: Jalen Milroe pass complete to Roydell Williams for 26 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +4.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:53: Ray Davis run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — UK win probability +5.9 pts (now 17%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:36: Jalen Milroe run for 3 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +7.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:30UK 4th & 15 at UK 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:20UK 4th & 5 at UK 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:06ALA 4th & 4 at ALA 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:48UK 4th & 3 at UK 20, down 14
    Close callPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:16UK 4th & 2 at ALA 9, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.9%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    15.4%−0.5
    89% to make
    Punt
    12.7%−3.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:44ALA 4th & 13 at ALA 28, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:35UK 4th & 8 at midfield, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:00UK 4th & 15 at UK 20, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:07UK 4th & 7 at UK 28, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:37ALA 4th & 18 at ALA 48, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ALA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 9:38ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:32ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:12ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:30UK Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:14ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:53UK Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:36ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:48ALA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:46ALA Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:46UK Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 5:1379% → 78%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
20.8%
Jalen Milroe run for 5 yds to the ALA 25Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
21.0%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the ALA 27Similar
Q1 13:38
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
21.4%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the ALA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
21.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jase McClellan for 4 yds to the ALA 35Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+16
21.9%
Jalen Milroe run for 16 yds to the UK 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
22.0%
Roydell Williams run for 2 yds to the UK 47Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+4
22.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Roydell Williams for 4 yds to the UK 43Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+6
22.5%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 6 yds to the UK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
22.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kendrick Law for 11 yds to the UK 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
21.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Amari Niblack for 26 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 2:0122% → 22%
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
21.7%
Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the UK 21Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 5
OWN 21
-1
21.6%
Ray Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 20Similar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 6
OWN 20
-9
21.7%
Devin Leary sacked by Chris Braswell and Quandarrius Robinson for a loss of 9 yards to the UK 11Similar
Q1 7:30
4TH & 15
OWN 11
0
21.7%
Wilson Berry punt for 44 yds, downed at the ALA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 1:5078% → 81%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
21.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 17 yds to the UK 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
21.8%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the UK 35Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 7
OPP 35
-5
21.4%
Jalen Milroe run for a loss of 5 yards to the UK 40Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+40
19.5%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 40 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
20.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for a loss of 2 yards Barion Brown fumbled, recovered by ALA Caleb Downs [SG] LEARY, Devin pass short to the left complete for -2 yards to BROWN, Barion caught at the UKY19, BROWN, Barion fumbled at UKY18 forced by ARNOLD, Terrion, recovered by ALA DOWNS, Caleb at the UKY13, returned 12 yards to the UKY1 (DAVIS, Ray;ARNOLD, Terrion), clock 05:16.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5TD
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 5:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
17.1%
Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5125% → 27%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.1%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
25.1%
Kentucky Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UK 20Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
25.0%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+10
25.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ray Davis for 10 yds to the UK 30Similar
Q1 4:20
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
26.9%
Wilson Berry punt for 33 yds , returns for no gain to the ALA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7TD
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:4129% → 18%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
29.1%
Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the ALA 27Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+6
29.0%
Ray Davis run for 6 yds to the ALA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
30.2%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
30.2%
Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the ALA 16Similar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+14
28.9%
(02:08) LEARY, Devin pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BROWN, Barion thrown to the ALA0, clock 02:01. PENALTY ALA Pass Interference on DOWNS, Caleb enforced 14 yards to the ALA2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
29.7%
Ray Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the ALA 6Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
18.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 6 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1581% → 81%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
19.2%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
19.3%
MILROE, Jalen pass short to the right complete for 6 yards to BENSON, Malik caught at the ALA30 and advanced to the ALA30 (JACKSON, D'Eryk;LOVETT, Jordan), clock 01:07. PENALTY ALA Pass Interference on DIPPRE, CJ UKY Face mask on JACKSON, D'Eryk , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:08
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
19.2%
Jam Miller run for 6 yds to the ALA 32Similar
Q1 0:06
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
19.4%
Will Reichard punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the UK 13Similar
Q1 0:06
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
19.2%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:1217% → 16%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
17.1%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the UK 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+1
17.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ray Davis for 1 yd to the UK 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+4
16.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 4 yds to the UK 20Similar
Q2 12:48
4TH & 3
OWN 20
0
16.3%
Wilson Berry punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kool-Aid McKinstry at the ALA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:3482% → 87%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
18.1%
Jase McClellan run for a loss of 3 yards to the ALA 35Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+30
18.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to CJ Dippre for 30 yds to the UK 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
17.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Malik Benson for 15 yds to the UK 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
17.8%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the UK 16Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 6
OPP 16
-10
17.8%
QB Keeper MILROE, Jalen rush to the right for a gain of 7 yards to the UKY9, out of bounds. PENALTY ALA Holding on LATHAM, JC enforced 10 yards from the UKY16 to the UKY26 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 16
OPP 26
+26
12.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Roydell Williams for 26 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11DOWNS
7 plays · 62 yds · 2:5813% → 11%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
12.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Dane Key for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
50
+33
13.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Brenden Bates for 33 yds to the ALA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
13.7%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+1
13.6%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 1 yd to the ALA 16Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+7
13.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ray Davis for 7 yds to the ALA 9Similar
Q2 7:16
4TH & 2
OPP 9
-4
11.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Leary for a loss of 4 yards to the ALA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12INT
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:2090% → 91%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
10.2%
Jase McClellan run for 8 yds to the ALA 21Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+12
10.0%
Jalen Milroe run for 12 yds to the ALA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
10.0%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-1
10.0%
Jase McClellan run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 32Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 11
OWN 32
0
9.3%
Jalen Milroe pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13INT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:1715% → 15%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
50
+5
14.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 5 yds to the ALA 45Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
12.8%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+6
12.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Dane Key for 6 yds to the ALA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
14.8%
Ray Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 40Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 11
OPP 40
0
14.6%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:39
3RD & 11
OPP 40
0
15.2%
Devin Leary pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:5592% → 92%
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
8.5%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-3
8.5%
Roydell Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the ALA 28Similar
Q2 2:39
3RD & 13
OWN 28
0
8.9%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 13
OWN 28
0
8.0%
James Burnip punt for 40 yds, downed at the UK 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:0914% → 15%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
14.1%
Ray Davis run for 6 yds to the UK 38Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+10
12.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Josh Kattus for 10 yds to the UK 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
15.2%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
15.1%
Alabama Penalty, Offsides (Dallas Turner) to the ALA 47Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+2
13.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ray Davis for 2 yds to the ALA 45Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 3
OPP 45
-5
12.5%
Kentucky Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 8
50
0
14.7%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 8
50
0
14.6%
Wilson Berry punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
6.5%
Roydell Williams run for 6 yds to the ALA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:0511% → 17%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
10.5%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
10.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ray Davis for 12 yds to the UK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
10.7%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
10.4%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:57
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+15
10.2%
(13:57) LEARY, Devin pass to the left incomplete intended for BROWN, Barion thrown to the UKY47, clock 13:55. PENALTY ALA Roughing the Passer on LATHAM, Jah-Marien enforced 15 yards from the UKY37 to the ALA48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+28
11.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Josh Kattus for 28 yds to the ALA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
11.7%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+9
11.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Dane Key for 9 yds to the ALA 11Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
11.3%
Devin Leary run for 2 yds to the ALA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
11.3%
Barion Brown run for 7 yds to the ALA 2Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
17.2%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 1:1086% → 95%
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
14.0%
Jalen Milroe run for 3 yds to the ALA 38Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+7
13.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 7 yds to the ALA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
13.0%
Jase McClellan run for 17 yds to the UK 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
12.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kobe Prentice for a loss of 2 yards to the UK 40Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 12
OPP 40
0
13.0%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 12
OPP 40
-5
13.2%
Alabama Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the UK 45Similar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 17
OPP 45
+30
12.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 30 yds to the UK 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
11.7%
Isaiah Bond run for 3 yds to the UK 12Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+9
11.7%
Jase McClellan run for 9 yds to the UK 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
4.6%
Jalen Milroe run for 3 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:256% → 5%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.3%
Ray Davis run for no gain to the UK 25Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-11
4.9%
Devin Leary sacked by Justin Eboigbe and Damon Payne Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the UK 14Similar
Q3 6:11
3RD & 21
OWN 14
+6
4.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Dane Key for 6 yds to the UK 20Similar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
4.7%
Wilson Berry punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 20TD
8 plays · 38 yds · 4:2097% → 100%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
2.9%
Roydell Williams run for 6 yds to the UK 32Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+8
2.7%
Roydell Williams run for 8 yds to the UK 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
2.7%
Roydell Williams run for 1 yd to the UK 23Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+12
2.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Amari Niblack for 12 yds to the UK 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
2.7%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the UK 9Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+8
2.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jam Miller for 8 yds to the UK 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
2.1%
Jam Miller run for no gain to the UK 1Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.5%
Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:411% → 0%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.6%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 4 yds to the UK 29Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
0.5%
Devin Leary sacked by Tim Smith and Justin Eboigbe for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 28Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
0.5%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:07
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
0.3%
Wilson Berry punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kool-Aid McKinstry at the ALA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 22TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:21100% → 100%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
0.5%
Jam Miller run for a loss of 2 yards to the ALA 32Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 12
OWN 32
0
0.5%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 12
OWN 32
+51
0.6%
Ty Simpson pass complete to Jalen Hale for 51 yds to the UK 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
0.5%
Jam Miller run for 2 yds to the UK 15Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 8
OPP 15
0
0.5%
Ty Simpson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+9
0.5%
Ty Simpson run for 9 yds to the UK 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
0.4%
Kentucky Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jalen Geiger) to the UK 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.2%
Jam Miller run for 3 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 23TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 2:000% → 0%
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+74
0.2%
Ramon Jefferson run for 74 yds to the ALA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
0.2%
Ramon Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ALA 2Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
0.2%
Devin Leary run for 1 yd to the ALA 1Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
Ray Davis run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 5:58100% → 100%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
0.2%
Justice Haynes run for 5 yds to the ALA 31Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+14
0.2%
Justice Haynes run for 14 yds to the ALA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
0.2%
Justice Haynes run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 5
50
+3
0.2%
Richard Young run for 3 yds to the UK 47Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+3
0.2%
Justice Haynes run for 3 yds to the UK 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
0.2%
Justice Haynes run for 5 yds to the UK 39Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+1
0.2%
Richard Young run for 1 yd to the UK 38Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+1
0.2%
Justice Haynes run for 1 yd to the UK 37Similar
Q4 7:35
4TH & 3
OPP 37
-15
0.2%
SIMPSON, Ty pass to the left complete for 20 yards to KITSELMAN, Miles caught at the UKY25 and advanced to the UKY17 (BRYANT, Ty). PENALTY ALA Pass Interference on ADAMS, Cole enforced 15 yards to the ALA48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 18
OWN 48
0
0.1%
Will Reichard punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the UK 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 1:370% → 0%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
0.1%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 1 yd to the UK 12Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 9
OWN 12
0
0.1%
SUMO-KARNGBAYE, Demie rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the UKY13 (POPE, Jake;RENAUD, Jordan). PENALTY UKY Holding on RAY, Dylan enforced half the distance from the goal, 6 yards from the UKY12 to the UKY6. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 15
OWN 6
+1
0.1%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 1 yd to the UK 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 1:30
Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 6 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
-11.4
TD · Q3 9:36
Jalen Milroe run for 3 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
-7.1
TD · Q3 10:53
Ray Davis run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
+5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com