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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadIU aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:00 · Isaiah Williams run for 4 yds to the IU 37 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:19: Reggie Love III run for 8 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin PAT MISSED) — ILL win probability +4.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:32: Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 6 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — IU win probability +3.9 pts (now 43%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:53: Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 9 yds to the ILL 6 for a 1ST down — IU win probability +6.2 pts (now 51%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:44: Brendan Sorsby 18 Yd Run (Chris Freeman PAT blocked) — IU win probability +3.5 pts (now 68%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:18: Pat Bryant 13 Yd pass from John Paddock (Caleb Griffin Kick) — IU win probability +5.6 pts (now 69%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 4 of 7IU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 14:03ILL 4th & 12 at ILL 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 64.0% before the snapGo for it63.9%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.1%average punt
- Q1 13:15IU 4th & 8 at IU 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snapGo for it35.9%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.0%average punt
- Q1 8:59ILL 4th & 6 at IU 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.1% before the snapGo for it64.0%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call64.0%91% to makePunt63.1%−0.9average punt
- Q1 7:34IU 4th & 6 at IU 28, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snapGo for it35.0%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.2%average punt
- Q2 11:24ILL 4th & 3 at IU 9, down 5Close callKicked a field goal · 59.3% before the snapGo for it59.2%48% to convertField goalTheir call58.5%−0.789% to makePunt52.7%−6.5average punt
- Q2 1:32IU 4th & 25 at IU 25, up 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snapGo for it65.8%−5.36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.1%average punt
- Q3 11:47ILL 4th & 11 at IU 39, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snapGo for it29.8%−0.227% to convertField goal29.8%−0.236% to makePuntTheir call30.0%average punt
- Q3 7:18IU 4th & 4 at ILL 38, up 16Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 79.0% before the snapGo for it79.7%48% to convertField goal77.5%−2.238% to makePuntTheir call77.5%−2.2average punt
- Q3 0:00ILL 4th & 1 at IU 41, down 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call19.5%70% to convertField goal14.9%−4.732% to makePunt15.5%−4.1average punt
- Q4 5:04ILL 4th & 3 at IU 3, down 16Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 5.6% before the snapGo for it7.2%44% to convertField goalTheir call5.4%−1.893% to makePunt2.3%−5.0average punt
- Q4 2:58IU 4th & 3 at ILL 37, up 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.9%53% to convertField goal96.5%−0.440% to makePunt96.3%−0.6average punt
- Q4 1:37ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 41, down 16Close callPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it2.6%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1IU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 3:54IU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call38.7%97% to makeGo for two38.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:19ILL Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call64.8%97% to makeGo for two64.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:32IU Touchdown, up 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call40.8%97% to makeGo for two40.8%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartILLDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:5164% → 64%
Q1 14:03
4TH & 12
OWN 21
0
63.6%
Hugh Robertson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by DeQuece Carter at the IU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4836% → 36%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3FG11 plays · 71 yds · 4:1664% → 64%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+33
63.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Pat Bryant for 33 yds to the IU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+23
64.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 23 yds to the IU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
63.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Paddock,John pass incomplete short right to Williams,Isaiah PENALTY IND Holding (Grier,Jordan) 5 yards from IND09 to IND04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1936% → 35%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 5TD11 plays · 32 yds · 3:4037% → 40%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
63.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 8 yds to the ILL 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3561% → 65%
IUDrive 7TD8 plays · 74 yds · 3:4136% → 43%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+41
63.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 41 yds to the ILL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
62.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 7 yds to the ILL 26Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+13
61.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 13 yds to the ILL 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
56.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 6 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8FG9 plays · 64 yds · 3:0358% → 61%
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
58.1%
Reggie Love III run for 4 yds to the ILL 31 for a 1ST down Indiana Penalty, Personal Foul (LeDarrius Cox) to the ILL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+28
59.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Pat Bryant for 28 yds to the IU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9TD6 plays · 69 yds · 2:2141% → 51%
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+23
59.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 23 yds to the ILL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
57.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jaylin Lucas for 10 yds to the ILL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+9
49.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 9 yds to the ILL 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10INT3 plays · 16 yds · 0:3742% → 43%
IUDrive 11TD7 plays · 52 yds · 2:0165% → 68%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
35.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 8 yds to the ILL 44Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+10
35.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Sorsby,Brendan pass incomplete short left to McCulley,Donaven broken up by Rosiek,Dylan PENALTY ILL Holding (Daxon,Denzel) 10 yards from ILL45 to ILL35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
35.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Howland,Trent rush left for 1 yard gain to the ILL34 (Rosiek,Dylan), out of bounds PENALTY IND Holding (Smith,Carter) 10 yards from ILL35 to ILL45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 20
OPP 45
+27
35.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 27 yds to the ILL 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12TD5 plays · 92 yds · 2:2838% → 39%
Q2 5:33
2ND & 4
OWN 14
+19
38.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Pat Bryant for 19 yds to the ILL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+38
38.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Pat Bryant for 38 yds to the IU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+20
39.0%
Casey Washington 20 Yd pass from John Paddock (Caleb Griffin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13PUNT9 plays · 0 yds · 1:3370% → 73%
Q2 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
30.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Sorsby,Brendan pass incomplete deep left to McCulley,Donaven PENALTY ILL Pass Interference (Nicholson,Tahveon) 15 yards from IND25 to IND40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-11
29.4%
Brendan Sorsby sacked by Jer'Zhan Newton for a loss of 11 yards to the IU 29Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 18
OWN 32
-7
29.3%
Brendan Sorsby sacked by Gabe Jacas for a loss of 7 yards to the IU 25Similar
Q2 1:32
4TH & 25
OWN 25
0
27.5%
James Evans punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the ILL 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14TD6 plays · 73 yds · 1:1432% → 32%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
31.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 9 yds to the ILL 36Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+8
32.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 8 yds to the ILL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+23
33.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Casey Washington for 23 yds to the IU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+19
35.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Casey Washington for 19 yds to the IU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 16FUMBLE7 plays · 36 yds · 1:1271% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
29.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 4 yds to the IU 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+30
29.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Trey Walker for 15 yds to the ILL 44 for a 1ST down Illinois Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Dylan Rosiek) to the ILL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
27.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Henderson,Josh rush middle for 9 yards gain to the ILL32 (Coleman,Seth) PENALTY IND Holding (Bedford,Matthew) 10 yards from ILL41 to IND49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 49
+15
28.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Sorsby,Brendan pass complete short left to McCulley,Donaven for 0 yards to the IND49 PENALTY ILL Pass Interference (Scott,Xavier) 15 yards from IND49 to ILL36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
26.3%
Brendan Sorsby run for 3 yds to the ILL 39 Brendan Sorsby fumbled, recovered by ILL Jer'Zhan Newton No Huddle-Shotgun Sorsby,Brendan rush left for 3 yards loss to the ILL39 fumbled by Sorsby,Brendan at ILL39 recovered by ILL Newton,Jer'Zhan at ILL39, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 22 yds · 2:0133% → 30%
IUDrive 18PUNT10 plays · 42 yds · 4:2975% → 79%
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
24.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Sorsby,Brendan pass incomplete short left to McCulley,Donaven, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ILL Pass Interference (Scott,Xavier) 8 yards from IND20 to IND28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+5
24.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 5 yds to the IU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+13
23.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Andison Coby for 13 yds to the ILL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
23.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Andison Coby for 5 yds to the ILL 39Similar
Q3 7:18
4TH & 4
OPP 38
0
21.0%
James Evans punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the ILL 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19TD8 plays · 86 yds · 2:0023% → 26%
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-13
23.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Paddock,John pass complete short right to Bryant,Pat for 15 yards to the ILL41 (Toomer,Nicolas) PENALTY ILL Personal Foul (Whitenack,Hunter) 13 yards from ILL26 to ILL13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:18
1ST & 23
OWN 13
+15
23.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 15 yds to the ILL 28Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+15
23.6%
John Paddock pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 15 yds to the ILL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
25.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Paddock,John pass incomplete deep left to Washington,Casey PENALTY IND Pass Interference (Toomer,Nicolas) 15 yards from ILL43 to IND42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
24.8%
Isaiah Williams 42 Yd pass from John Paddock (Caleb Griffin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 20INT6 plays · 28 yds · 1:5381% → 85%
Q3 5:18
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+14
18.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 14 yds to the IU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21TD10 plays · 81 yds · 3:3220% → 20%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
20.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Paddock,John pass incomplete short left to Washington,Casey PENALTY ILL Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Kreutz,Josh) 5 yards from ILL34 to ILL29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+21
19.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Casey Washington for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 22TD7 plays · 52 yds · 2:1792% → 94%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
8.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Sorsby,Brendan pass incomplete short right to Williams,E.J. PENALTY ILL Pass Interference (Tobe,Zachary) 15 yards from IND48 to ILL37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
7.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 6 yds to the ILL 20Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 4
OPP 20
-8
7.9%
Brendan Sorsby sacked by Dylan Rosiek for a loss of 8 yards to the ILL 28Similar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 12
OPP 28
+23
8.3%
Trent Howland run for 18 yds to the ILL 10 for a 1ST down Illinois Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tahveon Nicholson) to the ILL 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23FG18 plays · 72 yds · 7:2114% → 5%
Q4 12:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+20
14.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Ashton Hollins for 20 yds to the ILL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+21
15.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Ashton Hollins for 21 yds to the IU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
18.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Ashton Hollins for 5 yds to the IU 26Similar
Q4 12:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
18.7%
Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds to the IU 1 Kaden Feagin fumbled, recovered by ILL Josh Kreutz No Huddle Feagin,Kaden rush right for 2 yards gain to the IND01 fumbled by Feagin,Kaden at IND02 forced by Moore,Louis recovered by ILL Kreutz,Josh at IND01, End Of Play.Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
18.6%
PENALTY ILL False Start (Pearl,Julian) 5 yards from IND01 to IND06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+8
6.6%
John Paddock pass complete to Griffin Moore for 8 yds to the IU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 24DOWNS8 plays · 38 yds · 2:0697% → 98%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
3.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 14 yds to the ILL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:213% → 2%
Q4 1:37
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
2.1%
Hugh Robertson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by DeQuece Carter at the IU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 26TD7 plays · 85 yds · 1:0999% → 99%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
1.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to DeQuece Carter for 4 yds to the IU 19Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+25
1.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to DeQuece Carter for 25 yds to the ILL 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
0.8%
DeQuece Carter 26 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Brendan Sorsby Pass to E.J. Williams Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+99
TD · Q2 8:53
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 9 yds to the ILL 6 for a 1ST down
-6.2
TD · Q2 0:18
Pat Bryant 13 Yd pass from John Paddock (Caleb Griffin Kick)
-5.6