Try the model
AUB

Auburn 48 at Arkansas 10

ARK
2023 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2023 · Razorback Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:51 · Max Fletcher punt for 41 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 74Home team on offense−13.4Score differential−7.1Garbage-time factor−4.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.3Pregame prior+3.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:28: Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 11 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +3.5 pts (now 54%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. FG · Q1 1:54: Cam Little 39 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +8.1 pts (now 48%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 1:11: Alex McPherson 39 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +2.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:26: Payton Thorne pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 14 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +8.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:08: Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 11 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +1.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 7 of 10AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 10:44ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 26, down 7
    Close callPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:05ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 21, down 14
    Close callPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:08ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:54ARK 4th & 8 at AUB 20, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    38.6%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:44AUB 4th & 6 at AUB 41, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:10ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 24, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    39.8%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:59ARK 4th & 10 at midfield, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:08AUB 4th & 3 at ARK 47, up 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:51ARK 4th & 7 at AUB 46, down 18
    Close callPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    33.7%−1.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:11AUB 4th & 11 at ARK 22, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−1.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    71.4%−5.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:25ARK 4th & 12 at ARK 23, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−3.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:27ARK 4th & 9 at ARK 26, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:28AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 34, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:15ARK 4th & 10 at ARK 20, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:05AUB 4th & 5 at ARK 41, up 38
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    32% to make
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARK made the numbers' call on 1 of 1AUB made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:37AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:28AUB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:26AUB Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:08AUB Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:14AUB Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:35ARK Touchdown, down 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2344% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
56.2%
Payton Thorne run for 8 yds to the AUB 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-5
56.2%
PENALTY AUB False Start (Britton,Gunner) 5 yards from AUB33 to AUB28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+45
56.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Caleb Burton III for 45 yds to the ARK 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
56.2%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Caleb Burton IIISimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
56.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the ARK 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+5
56.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Thorne,Payton pass incomplete deep left to Brown,Camden broken up by Braxton,Jaylon PENALTY ARK Offside (Thomas,Jaheim) 5 yards from ARK25 to ARK20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+8
56.2%
Payton Thorne run for 8 yds to the ARK 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
55.3%
Payton Thorne run for 12 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2PUNT RETURN TD
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:4955% → 54%
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
55.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the ARK 20Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
55.4%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the ARK 20Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+6
55.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 6 yds to the ARK 26Similar
Q1 10:44
4TH & 3
OWN 26
+74
54.0%
Max Fletcher punt for 48 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 74 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3354% → 53%
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
54.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the ARK 13Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+3
54.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the ARK 16Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+5
53.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 5 yds to the ARK 21Similar
Q1 9:05
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
53.2%
Max Fletcher punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AUB 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:3748% → 54%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
52.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 4
50
+5
52.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the ARK 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+27
52.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 27 yds to the ARK 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
52.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 3 yds to the ARK 15Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+4
52.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the ARK 11Similar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+11
45.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 11 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2053% → 56%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Jaedon WilsonSimilar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
53.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the ARK 22Similar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+9
52.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 9 yds to the ARK 31Similar
Q1 5:08
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
55.7%
Max Fletcher punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AUB 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:3856% → 58%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
44.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Fromm for 7 yds to the AUB 48Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+8
44.0%
Damari Alston run for 8 yds to the ARK 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
44.0%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the ARK 42Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
41.9%
Payton Thorne pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 7FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3661% → 52%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
60.6%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Jalen McLeod for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 24Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+2
60.3%
AJ Green run for 2 yds to the AUB 22Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+2
60.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 2 yds to the AUB 20Similar
Q1 1:54
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+39
52.0%
Cam Little 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:0358% → 60%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
42.4%
Payton Thorne run for no gain to the AUB 20Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+17
42.5%
Payton Thorne run for 17 yds to the AUB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
40.3%
Damari Alston run for 4 yds to the AUB 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
39.9%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Camden BrownSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
40.1%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Camden BrownSimilar
Q2 14:44
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
40.3%
Oscar Chapman punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 9PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 3:4551% → 46%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
51.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the ARK 18Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-5
50.4%
PENALTY ARK Illegal Substitution 5 yards from ARK18 to ARK13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 12
OWN 13
0
50.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Andrew ArmstrongSimilar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 12
OWN 13
+11
50.7%
KJ Jefferson run for 11 yds to the ARK 24Similar
Q2 13:10
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+8
55.2%
KJ Jefferson run for 8 yds to the ARK 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
55.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 6 yds to the ARK 38Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+12
56.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
50
+5
56.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Nathan Bax for 5 yds to the AUB 45Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
57.1%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Andrew ArmstrongSimilar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 5
OPP 45
-5
56.9%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Marcus Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 10
50
0
46.4%
Max Fletcher punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Keionte Scott at the AUB 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 34 yds · 1:5165% → 66%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+32
35.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for 17 yds to the AUB 31 for a 1ST down Arkansas Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the AUB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
34.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for 1 yd to the AUB 45Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+8
34.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 8 yds to the ARK 47Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
34.8%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Camden BrownSimilar
Q2 9:08
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
33.6%
Oscar Chapman punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 2:1729% → 28%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
28.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Green,AJ rush left for 6 yards gain to the ARK26 (Riley,Cam) PENALTY ARK Holding (Latham,Brady) 10 yards from ARK20 to ARK10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 20
OWN 10
0
28.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Isaac TeSlaaSimilar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+10
28.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Nathan Bax for 10 yds to the ARK 20Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+31
28.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 31 yds to the AUB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
30.1%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Isaac TeSlaaSimilar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
29.9%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the AUB 46Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
29.7%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Isaac TeSlaaSimilar
Q2 6:51
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
28.1%
Max Fletcher punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12FG
15 plays · 73 yds · 5:4068% → 86%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
31.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the AUB 8Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+20
32.0%
Payton Thorne run for 20 yds to the AUB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
30.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 11 yds to the AUB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
29.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 6 yds to the AUB 45Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+12
29.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 12 yds to the ARK 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
29.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 7 yds to the ARK 36Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+2
29.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the ARK 34Similar
Q2 2:56
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
18.1%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the ARK 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
18.5%
Payton Thorne run for 11 yds to the ARK 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
18.7%
Payton Thorne run for 4 yds to the ARK 17Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 6
OPP 17
-5
18.7%
Payton Thorne sacked by Trajan Jeffcoat for a loss of 5 yards to the ARK 22Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 11
OPP 22
0
16.3%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jarquez HunterSimilar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 11
OPP 22
+39
13.6%
Alex McPherson 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13FUMBLE
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5023% → 23%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
22.8%
KJ Jefferson run for 13 yds to the ARK 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-9
23.9%
KJ Jefferson sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the ARK 29Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 19
OWN 29
+2
23.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 2 yds to the ARK 31Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 17
OWN 31
-4
22.6%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Jalen McLeod for a loss of 4 yards to the ARK 24 KJ Jefferson fumbled, recovered by AUB Marcus Harris , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14FG
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:2189% → 91%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
11.1%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Camden BrownSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+11
11.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 11 yds to the ARK 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+31
9.1%
Alex McPherson 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3519% → 17%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
18.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 3 yds to the ARK 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
18.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 8 yds to the ARK 20Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+3
18.3%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 3 yds to the ARK 23Similar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+1
17.1%
Max Fletcher punt for 45 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 1 yd to the AUB 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 3:5987% → 96%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
13.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the AUB 33Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
13.1%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jarquez HunterSimilar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+12
13.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 12 yds to the AUB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
12.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 10 yds to the ARK 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
12.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 19 yds to the ARK 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
12.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the ARK 26Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+9
12.4%
Payton Thorne run for 9 yds to the ARK 17Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+3
12.6%
Damari Alston run for 3 yds to the ARK 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
4.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 14 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17FUMBLE
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:145% → 4%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
4.6%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the ARK 28Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
4.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 10 yds to the ARK 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
4.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the ARK 39Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+9
4.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 9 yds to the ARK 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+35
5.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for 35 yds to the AUB 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
3.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the ARK 11 Raheim Sanders fumbled, recovered by AUB Caleb Wooden No Huddle-Shotgun Sanders,Raheim rush left for 2 yards gain to the AUB15 fumbled by Sanders,Raheim at AUB15 forced by Puckett,Zion recovered by AUB Wooden,Caleb at AUB15 Wooden,Caleb return 74 yards to the ARK11 (Armstrong,Andrew).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18TD
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
2.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 11 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:411% → 1%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
1.3%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the ARK 28Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
1.2%
Jacolby Criswell run for 6 yds to the ARK 34Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-8
1.2%
Jacolby Criswell sacked by Jalen McLeod for a loss of 8 yards to the ARK 26Similar
Q3 5:27
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+8
1.0%
Max Fletcher punt for 47 yds , Keionte Scott returns for 8 yds to the AUB 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 5:1398% → 99%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
1.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for 14 yds to the AUB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
1.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the ARK 45Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+9
1.6%
Damari Alston run for 9 yds to the ARK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
1.6%
Damari Alston run for 9 yds to the ARK 27Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+8
1.6%
Damari Alston run for 8 yds to the ARK 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
1.6%
Damari Alston run for 6 yds to the ARK 13Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+6
1.6%
Damari Alston run for 6 yds to the ARK 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
0.7%
Brian Battie run for 7 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:250% → 0%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.4%
Jacolby Criswell run for 4 yds to the ARK 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+60
0.3%
Jacolby Criswell run for 60 yds to the AUB 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
0.4%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 11 yds for a TD (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22INT
10 plays · 52 yds · 5:0999% → 100%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.9%
Damari Alston run for 3 yds to the AUB 28Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
0.9%
Damari Alston run for 5 yds to the AUB 33Similar
Q4 14:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
0.9%
Damari Alston run for 1 yd to the AUB 34Similar
Q4 12:28
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+11
0.5%
Robby Ashford run for 11 yds to the AUB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
0.4%
Damari Alston run for 2 yds to the AUB 47Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+9
0.4%
Brian Battie run for 9 yds to the ARK 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+21
0.4%
Robby Ashford run for 21 yds to the ARK 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
0.3%
Robby Ashford pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:110% → 0%
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
0.1%
Jacolby Criswell run for 3 yds to the ARK 12Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+8
0.1%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Francis Sherman for 8 yds to the ARK 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
0.1%
Jacolby Criswell run for 1 yd to the ARK 19Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+1
0.1%
AJ Green run for 1 yd to the ARK 20Similar
Q4 9:26
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
0.1%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to Andrew ArmstrongSimilar
Q4 7:15
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
0.1%
Max Fletcher punt for 71 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AUB 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24DOWNS
13 plays · 45 yds · 7:10100% → 100%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
0.2%
Brian Battie run for 6 yds to the AUB 15Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 4
OWN 15
0
0.2%
Brian Battie run for no gain to the AUB 15Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+11
0.2%
Brian Battie run for 11 yds to the AUB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
0.2%
Brian Battie run for 5 yds to the AUB 31Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+4
0.1%
Brian Battie run for 4 yds to the AUB 35Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+4
0.2%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 4 yds to the AUB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
0.1%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 15 yds to the ARK 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
0.1%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 2 yds to the ARK 44Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+3
0.1%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 3 yds to the ARK 41Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
0.1%
Jeremiah Cobb run for no gain to the ARK 41Similar
Q4 0:05
4TH & 5
OPP 41
+5
0.1%
Jeremiah Cobb run for 5 yds to the ARK 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
0.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to Bryce StephensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:26
Payton Thorne pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 14 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
-8.6
FG · Q1 1:54
Cam Little 39 yd FG GOOD
-8.1
TD · Q1 6:28
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 11 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
-3.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com