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AUB

Auburn 31 at Vanderbilt 15

VAN
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:20 · Matthew Hayball punt for 47 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 24Pregame prior−28.9Home team on offense−2.1Score differential−0.5Garbage-time factor−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:15: Bryce Cowan 5 Yd Interception Return (Jacob Borcila Kick) — VAN win probability +5.1 pts (now 22%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:36: Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 53 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +8.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:44: Payton Thorne pass complete to Jeremiah Cobb for 5 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +6.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:43: Ken Seals pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 30 yds for a TD (J. Sherrill Run For Two-point Conversion) — VAN win probability +9.6 pts (now 14%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:48: Ken Seals pass incomplete — AUB win probability +6.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 7 of 11AUB made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 10:28VAN 4th & 5 at AUB 25, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.4%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    23.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:22VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:33AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:20VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 35, down 7
    Close callPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:56VAN 4th & 10 at VAN 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:35AUB 4th & 11 at AUB 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:23VAN 4th & 17 at AUB 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    20.5%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:33AUB 4th & 11 at AUB 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:37VAN 4th & 8 at VAN 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:59AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:22AUB 4th & 1 at VAN 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    73.9%−1.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    73.5%−2.3
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:20AUB 4th & 14 at VAN 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%−2.0
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    72.0%−4.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:57VAN 4th & 18 at VAN 17, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−1.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:15VAN 4th & 7 at midfield, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:17AUB 4th & 12 at AUB 27, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:52AUB 4th & 14 at midfield, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:52VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 46, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:48VAN 4th & 14 at AUB 14, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    5.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−2.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:52AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 33, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:50VAN 4th & 13 at midfield, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.3%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:00AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:01AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:15VAN Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:36AUB Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:44AUB Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:43VAN Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    6.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VANDrive 1MISSED FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 4:3217% → 20%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
17.4%
Ken Seals pass complete to Will Sheppard for 6 yds to the VAN 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+6
17.4%
Ken Seals pass complete to Will Sheppard for 6 yds to the VAN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
17.4%
Junior Sherrill run for 11 yds to the AUB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
17.4%
Ken Seals pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 5 yds to the AUB 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+7
17.4%
Sedrick Alexander run for 7 yds to the AUB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
17.4%
Sedrick Alexander run for 2 yds to the AUB 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+3
17.4%
Ken Seals pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 3 yds to the AUB 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 25
0
17.4%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+43
19.9%
Jacob Borcila 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:2880% → 82%
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
19.6%
Payton Thorne run for 8 yds to the AUB 33Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+67
18.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 67 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3819% → 19%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
18.8%
Sedrick Alexander run for a loss of 2 yards to the VAN 23Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
18.8%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+7
18.6%
Ken Seals run for 7 yds to the VAN 30Similar
Q1 8:22
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
18.9%
Matthew Hayball punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4981% → 80%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
19.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 18Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 12
OWN 18
0
19.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for no gain to the AUB 18Similar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+3
19.1%
Payton Thorne run for 3 yds to the AUB 21Similar
Q1 6:33
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
19.8%
Oscar Chapman punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Will Sheppard at the VAN 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1320% → 20%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
19.6%
Walter Taylor run for no gain to the VAN 26Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
19.5%
Jayden McGowan run for 3 yds to the VAN 29Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+6
19.4%
Walter Taylor pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 6 yds to the VAN 35Similar
Q1 4:20
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
19.6%
Matthew Hayball punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6TD
6 plays · 79 yds · 1:1980% → 84%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
19.7%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
19.8%
Brian Battie run for no gain to the AUB 21Similar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+14
20.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 14 yds to the AUB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
19.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 9 yds to the AUB 44Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+56
16.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 56 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0517% → 17%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.1%
Walter Taylor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
17.0%
Walter Taylor run for no gain to the VAN 25Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
16.9%
Walter Taylor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:56
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
17.0%
Matthew Hayball punt for 38 yds, downed at the AUB 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2183% → 83%
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
16.7%
Jeremiah Cobb run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 36Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
16.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the AUB 36Similar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
16.9%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:35
4TH & 11
OWN 36
+45
17.0%
Oscar Chapman punt for 45 yds , returns for no gain to the VAN 36 , returns for no gain to the VAN 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:3718% → 17%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+29
17.5%
AJ Newberry run for 29 yds to the AUB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
18.1%
AJ Newberry run for 1 yd to the AUB 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 34
-10
18.1%
NEWBERRY, AJ rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the AUB29 (PRITCHETT, Nehemiah;ASANTE, Eugene). PENALTY VAN Holding on ASHMORE, Bradley enforced 10 yards from the AUB34 to the AUB44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 19
OPP 44
-1
17.6%
Ken Seals pass complete to Logan Kyle for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 20
OPP 45
+3
17.5%
Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds to the AUB 42Similar
Q2 12:23
4TH & 17
OPP 42
0
17.1%
Matthew Hayball punt for 40 yds, downed at the AUB 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10INT TD
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0884% → 78%
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
16.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the AUB 5Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 7
OWN 5
0
16.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the AUB 5Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 7
OWN 5
-5
21.6%
Bryce Cowan 5 Yd Interception Return (Jacob Borcila Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:4279% → 78%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for no gain to the AUB 25Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
21.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for a loss of 5 yards to the AUB 20Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+4
21.5%
Payton Thorne run for 4 yds to the AUB 24Similar
Q2 9:33
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
22.3%
Oscar Chapman punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Will Sheppard at the VAN 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5622% → 22%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
22.4%
Sedrick Alexander run for 2 yds to the VAN 41Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
22.7%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
21.9%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:37
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
21.7%
Matthew Hayball punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 2:3879% → 79%
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
21.5%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+11
21.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Camden Brown for 11 yds to the AUB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
20.9%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
21.3%
Brian Battie run for 3 yds to the AUB 34Similar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+9
21.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 9 yds to the AUB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
20.2%
Payton Thorne sacked by Bradley Mann for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 41Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 12
OWN 41
0
20.4%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+3
21.2%
Payton Thorne run for 3 yds to the AUB 44Similar
Q2 5:59
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
21.4%
Oscar Chapman punt for 44 yds , returns for no gain to the VAN 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14PUNT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
21.6%
AJ Newberry run for 1 yd to the VAN 15Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
21.5%
Ken Seals run for no gain to the VAN 15Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 9
OWN 15
0
21.1%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15FG
13 plays · 31 yds · 4:0280% → 81%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
19.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the VAN 44Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
19.7%
Payton Thorne run for no gain to the VAN 44Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+8
19.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Brandon Frazier for 8 yds to the VAN 36Similar
Q2 4:22
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+4
20.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the VAN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
19.4%
Payton Thorne run for 3 yds to the VAN 29Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+3
19.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 3 yds to the VAN 26Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+23
19.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for 23 yds to the VAN 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
19.2%
Direct snap to HUNTER, Jarquez rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the VAN0, TOUCHDOWN AUB, score nullified by penalty (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY AUB Personal Foul on RILEY, Micah enforced 15 yards from the VAN3 to the VAN18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 18
+2
18.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the VAN 16Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 16
+2
18.6%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the VAN 14Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
19.2%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+32
19.0%
Alex McPherson 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
19.1%
Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the VAN 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1680% → 89%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
19.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the AUB 30Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
19.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the AUB 31Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+16
19.9%
THORNE, Payton pass deep to the left incomplete intended for FAIRWEATHER, Rivaldo thrown to the VAN40. PENALTY VAN Pass Interference on WRIGHT, De'Rickey enforced 16 yards to the AUB47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
11.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 53 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:3913% → 12%
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
12.6%
Ken Seals pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 1 yd to the VAN 26Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-9
12.6%
Ken Seals sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the VAN 17Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
12.4%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:57
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
12.0%
Matthew Hayball punt for 47 yds, downed at the AUB 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 2:1389% → 96%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
11.1%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
11.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Camden Brown for 5 yds to the AUB 41Similar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+39
10.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 39 yds to the VAN 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
10.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Camden Brown for 9 yds to the VAN 11Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+4
10.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the VAN 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
10.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the VAN 5Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
3.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jeremiah Cobb for 5 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:215% → 5%
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
5.1%
AJ Newberry run for a loss of 5 yards to the VAN 30Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+17
4.9%
Ken Seals pass complete to Justin Ball for 17 yds to the VAN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
5.4%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
5.4%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:36
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+3
5.3%
Ken Seals pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:15
4TH & 7
50
0
4.5%
Matthew Hayball punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:5896% → 97%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+16
3.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Caleb Burton III for 16 yds to the AUB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
3.6%
Auburn Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dillon Wade) to the AUB 21Similar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 18
OWN 21
0
3.6%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 18
OWN 21
+6
3.6%
Damari Alston run for 6 yds to the AUB 27Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & 12
OWN 27
0
3.6%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:17
4TH & 12
OWN 27
0
3.2%
Oscar Chapman punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 22TD
5 plays · 44 yds · 2:344% → 14%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-9
4.1%
Ken Seals sacked by Jalen McLeod for a loss of 9 yards to the VAN 47Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 19
OWN 47
-5
4.0%
Vanderbilt Penalty, False Start (Delfin Xavier Castillo) to the VAN 42Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 24
OWN 42
+24
3.9%
Ken Seals pass complete to Logan Kyle for 24 yds to the AUB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
4.4%
Chase Gillespie run for 4 yds to the AUB 30Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+30
14.0%
Ken Seals pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 30 yds for a TD (J. Sherrill Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:3991% → 93%
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+24
9.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 24 yds to the VAN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
8.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Johnson Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the AUB 49Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 15
OWN 49
-2
8.7%
Payton Thorne sacked by Nate Clifton for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 47Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 17
OWN 47
+3
6.9%
Payton Thorne run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 14
50
0
7.5%
Oscar Chapman punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jayden McGowan at the VAN 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 24DOWNS
17 plays · 79 yds · 9:0410% → 6%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
10.4%
Sedrick Alexander run for 6 yds to the VAN 13Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+2
10.6%
Sedrick Alexander run for 2 yds to the VAN 15Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+16
10.5%
Sedrick Alexander run for 16 yds to the VAN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
11.1%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+10
10.8%
Ken Seals pass complete to London Humphreys for 10 yds to the VAN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
12.1%
Ken Seals run for 2 yds to the VAN 43Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+7
12.0%
Ken Seals run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 1
50
-4
12.4%
Chase Gillespie run for a loss of 4 yards to the VAN 46Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 5
OWN 46
+28
11.7%
Ken Seals pass complete to Will Sheppard for 28 yds to the AUB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
13.3%
Ken Seals pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 3 yds to the AUB 23Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 7
OPP 23
-5
13.3%
Vanderbilt Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AUB 28Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 12
OPP 28
-2
12.9%
Ken Seals sacked by Zykeivous Walker for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 30Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 14
OPP 30
+20
11.9%
Ken Seals pass complete to London Humphreys for 20 yds to the AUB 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-11
13.3%
Ken Seals sacked by Marcus Harris and Cam Riley for a loss of 11 yards to the AUB 21Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 21
+7
12.7%
Ken Seals run for 7 yds to the AUB 14Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
12.2%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
0
5.7%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:5696% → 97%
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
4.4%
Payton Thorne run for 13 yds to the AUB 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
4.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the AUB 28Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 9
OWN 28
-3
3.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 3 yards to the AUB 25Similar
Q4 4:04
3RD & 12
OWN 25
+8
3.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 8 yds to the AUB 33Similar
Q4 3:52
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
2.9%
Oscar Chapman punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:023% → 2%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
2.6%
Ken Seals pass complete to Chase Gillespie for 2 yds to the VAN 19Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+34
2.5%
Ken Seals run for 34 yds to the AUB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-6
2.8%
Ken Seals sacked by Eugene Asante for a loss of 6 yards to the VAN 47Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 16
OWN 47
+3
2.6%
Ken Seals pass complete to Will Sheppard for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 13
50
0
2.6%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:50
4TH & 13
50
0
2.1%
Ken Seals pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 27END OF GAME
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:5098% → 98%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
1.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the VAN 25Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+15
1.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for 25 yds Auburn Penalty, Offensive Holding (Rivaldo Fairweather) to the VAN 27Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+5
1.7%
Payton Thorne run for 5 yds to the VAN 22Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
1.6%
[NHSG] Kneel down by THORNE, Payton at VAN25 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:43
Ken Seals pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 30 yds for a TD (J. Sherrill Run For Two-point Conversion)
+9.6
TD · Q3 13:36
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 53 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
-8.5
TD · Q3 9:44
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jeremiah Cobb for 5 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
-6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com