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TA&M

Texas A&M 35 at Ole Miss 38

MISS
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreTA&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:19 · JJ Pegues run for 2 yds to the MISS 44 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+22.0+11.00−11.0−22.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 17Home team on offense+0.2Pregame prior+6.3Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:04: Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds for a TD (Jaxson Dart pass to Tre Harris for Two-Point Conversion) — MISS win probability +13.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:05: Max Johnson pass complete to Jake Johnson for 28 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK) — TA&M win probability +16.2 pts (now 33%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:04: Amari Daniels run for 1 yd for a TD (Randy Bond KICK) — TA&M win probability +20.0 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 4:34: Max Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD (Randy Bond KICK) — TA&M win probability +38.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:40: Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +44.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TA&M made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 13:07MISS 4th & 6 at MISS 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:47TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:19MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.9%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:50TA&M 4th & 13 at TA&M 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:47MISS 4th & 16 at MISS 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:32TA&M 4th & 7 at MISS 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    35.3%−0.5
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:22TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:12MISS 4th & 22 at TA&M 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−2.7
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    68.2%−5.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 11, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:46MISS 4th & 4 at TA&M 4, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.8%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    71.1%−10.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:58MISS 4th & 6 at MISS 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−1.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:34TA&M 4th & 1 at MISS 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    30.4%−5.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    26.1%−9.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:00TA&M 4th & 8 at MISS 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−11.8
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−20.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 5TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 7:45MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:53MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:12TA&M Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:53MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    76.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:44TA&M Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:04MISS Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    84.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:05TA&M Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:04TA&M Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.6%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:34TA&M Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:40MISS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−2.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:3957% → 57%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
56.9%
Texas A&M Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jayvon Thomas) to the MISS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
57.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the MISS 43Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
57.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 3 yds to the MISS 46Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 4
OWN 46
-2
57.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the MISS 44Similar
Q1 13:07
4TH & 6
OWN 44
+2
57.0%
Fraser Masin punt for 42 yds , Ainias Smith returns for 2 yds to the TA&M 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:4843% → 43%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+19
57.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 19 yds to the TA&M 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
57.0%
Rueben Owens run for a loss of 1 yard to the TA&M 34Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
57.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Rueben Owens for no gain to the TA&M 34Similar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+1
57.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Amari Daniels for 1 yd to the TA&M 35Similar
Q1 10:47
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
57.4%
Nik Constantinou punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the MISS 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 2:5757% → 61%
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
57.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+14
57.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 14 yds to the MISS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
57.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
57.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+9
57.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 9 yds to the MISS 42Similar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+2
57.3%
JJ Pegues run for 2 yds to the MISS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
57.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 4
50
+4
57.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 4 yds to the TA&M 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
58.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the TA&M 48Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+39
57.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 39 yds to the TA&M 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
60.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 11 yds · 2:5540% → 38%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
60.0%
Texas A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TA&M 20Similar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+11
60.1%
Ainias Smith run for 11 yds to the TA&M 31Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
60.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Noah Thomas for 8 yds to the TA&M 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
60.1%
Amari Daniels run for no gain to the TA&M 39Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
60.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Amari Daniels for 2 yds to the TA&M 41Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 8
OWN 41
-5
60.7%
Texas A&M Penalty, False Start (Ainias Smith) to the TA&M 36Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 13
OWN 36
0
61.3%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Noah ThomasSimilar
Q1 4:50
4TH & 13
OWN 36
0
61.6%
Nik Constantinou punt for 42 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for no gain to the MISS 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:4662% → 61%
Q1 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
61.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 21Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 11
OWN 21
-5
62.0%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Isaiah Raikes and Edgerrin Cooper for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 16Similar
Q1 3:56
3RD & 16
OWN 16
0
61.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:47
4TH & 16
OWN 16
+2
61.3%
Fraser Masin punt for 41 yds , Ainias Smith returns for 2 yds to the TA&M 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:5739% → 37%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
60.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jake Johnson for 3 yds to the TA&M 48Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+6
60.7%
Max Johnson run for 6 yds to the MISS 46Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
61.0%
Max Johnson run for 2 yds to the MISS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
61.2%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
61.3%
Rueben Owens run for 2 yds to the MISS 42Similar
Q1 1:06
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+1
61.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Le'Veon Moss for 1 yd to the MISS 41Similar
Q1 0:32
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
62.9%
Nik Constantinou punt for 35 yds, downed at the MISS 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
8 plays · 94 yds · 2:3163% → 73%
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
63.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the MISS 10Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+2
63.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the MISS 12Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 12
+15
63.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 15 yds to the MISS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+29
64.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 29 yds to the TA&M 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
65.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 10 yds to the TA&M 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+18
65.9%
Quinshon Judkins run for 18 yds to the TA&M 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
66.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the TA&M 11Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+11
73.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 11 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:0729% → 28%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.8%
Rueben Owens run for 5 yds to the TA&M 30Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
71.0%
Rueben Owens run for no gain to the TA&M 30Similar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
71.7%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:31
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-5
72.1%
Texas A&M Penalty, False Start (Jacoby Mathews) to the TA&M 25Similar
Q2 11:22
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
72.4%
Nik Constantinou punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MISS 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9TD
10 plays · 40 yds · 2:4774% → 67%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
74.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the MISS 38Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+20
74.6%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 20 yds to the TA&M 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+31
75.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 31 yds to the TA&M 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-10
75.9%
Ole Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jeremy James) to the TA&M 21Similar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 20
OPP 21
-10
75.8%
Ole Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TA&M 31Similar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 30
OPP 31
+2
75.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the TA&M 29Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 28
OPP 29
0
76.2%
Ole Miss Penalty, Illegal Touching (Caden Prieskorn) to the TA&M 29Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 28
OPP 29
+5
75.8%
Texas A&M Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TA&M 24Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 23
OPP 24
+1
76.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the TA&M 23Similar
Q2 8:12
4TH & 22
OPP 23
+75
66.9%
Jacoby Mathews 75 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Randy Bond Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 0:5768% → 79%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
68.2%
Jaxson Dart run for 12 yds to the MISS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+24
69.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 24 yds to the TA&M 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
70.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the TA&M 29Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+29
78.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 29 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 0
OPP 3
+1
79.4%
Texas A&M Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (1 Yards) to the TA&M 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5925% → 37%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
75.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 4 yds to the TA&M 29Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
75.3%
Amari Daniels run for 11 yds to the TA&M 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
75.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 11 yds to the MISS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
74.6%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-3
75.8%
Max Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the TA&M 48Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 13
OWN 48
+17
77.0%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 17 yds to the MISS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
74.7%
Le'Veon Moss run for 4 yds to the MISS 31Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+7
74.6%
Le'Veon Moss run for 7 yds to the MISS 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
75.2%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
75.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Noah Thomas for 6 yds to the MISS 18Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+5
75.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 5 yds to the MISS 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
63.1%
Le'Veon Moss run for 13 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:0969% → 68%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-2
68.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for a loss of 2 yards to the MISS 4Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 12
OWN 4
+10
68.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 10 yds to the MISS 14Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 2
OWN 14
-3
68.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the MISS 11Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OWN 11
0
67.6%
Fraser Masin punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Ainias Smith at the TA&M 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13INT
15 plays · 70 yds · 6:3434% → 38%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
66.0%
Le'Veon Moss run for 4 yds to the TA&M 29Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
65.6%
Max Johnson pass complete to Ainias Smith for 11 yds Ainias Smith fumbled, recovered by TA&M Ainias Smith for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
64.7%
Le'Veon Moss run for 2 yds to the TA&M 42Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+8
64.9%
Max Johnson pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
50
+3
63.4%
Amari Daniels run for 3 yds to the MISS 47Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
63.5%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Ainias SmithSimilar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+25
64.3%
Max Johnson pass complete to Noah Thomas for 25 yds to the MISS 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
61.7%
Le'Veon Moss run for 2 yds to the MISS 20Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+4
61.8%
Le'Veon Moss run for 4 yds to the MISS 16Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 4
OPP 16
-15
63.4%
Texas A&M Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the MISS 31Similar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 19
OPP 31
+10
66.6%
Ole Miss Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MISS 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
62.1%
Le'Veon Moss run for 9 yds to the MISS 12Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+7
62.1%
Amari Daniels run for 7 yds to the MISS 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
62.1%
Max Johnson pass intercepted, touchback. John Saunders Jr. return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:1171% → 88%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
70.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+24
70.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 24 yds to the MISS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+40
73.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 40 yds to the TA&M 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+10
74.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the TA&M 12. Texas A&M Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Shemar Turner) to the TA&M 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
87.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds for a TD (Jaxson Dart pass to Tre Harris for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5216% → 33%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
84.3%
Max Johnson pass complete to Le'Veon Moss for 3 yds to the TA&M 28Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
83.9%
Le'Veon Moss run for 7 yds to the TA&M 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+27
83.9%
Max Johnson pass complete to Ainias Smith for 27 yds to the MISS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
82.8%
Amari Daniels run for 10 yds to the MISS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
66.6%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jake Johnson for 28 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16FG
14 plays · 71 yds · 4:0876% → 83%
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
76.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 5 yds to the MISS 30Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
76.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 4 yds to the MISS 34Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
76.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the MISS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
77.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 11 yds to the MISS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
79.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 13 yds to the TA&M 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
79.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 6 yds to the TA&M 34Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 4
OPP 34
-5
80.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the TA&M 29 Ole Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TA&M 39Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
81.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+32
80.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 32 yds to the TA&M 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
81.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the TA&M 5Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
81.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the TA&M 4Similar
Q3 0:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
82.8%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q3 0:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
83.1%
Caden Davis 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2216% → 40%
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
83.6%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 19 yds to the TA&M 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
81.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Ainias Smith for 8 yds to the MISS 48Similar
Q4 14:37
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+2
80.2%
Amari Daniels run for 2 yds to the MISS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
80.9%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 6 yds to the MISS 40Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+13
80.6%
Amari Daniels run for 13 yds to the MISS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
79.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Max Wright for 1 yd to the MISS 26Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+24
80.0%
Max Johnson pass complete to Ainias Smith for 24 yds to the MISS 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
79.7%
Max Johnson run for 1 yd to the MISS 1Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.7%
Amari Daniels run for 1 yd for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3370% → 68%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
69.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the MISS 25Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
70.2%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the MISS 25Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
68.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
68.1%
Fraser Masin punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TA&M 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19TD
14 plays · 67 yds · 6:0134% → 81%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
66.2%
Amari Daniels run for 2 yds to the TA&M 35Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+11
66.4%
Max Johnson pass complete to Noah Thomas for 11 yds to the TA&M 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
62.6%
Amari Daniels run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 6
50
+6
61.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Max Wright for 6 yds to the MISS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
61.6%
Rueben Owens run for 7 yds to the MISS 37Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+2
61.1%
Rueben Owens run for 2 yds to the MISS 35Similar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 1
OPP 35
0
61.4%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jake JohnsonSimilar
Q4 6:34
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+2
64.2%
Max Johnson run for 2 yds to the MISS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
59.7%
Ole Miss Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Deantre Prince) to the MISS 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
59.2%
Amari Daniels run for 8 yds to the MISS 10Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+9
59.2%
Amari Daniels run for 9 yds to the MISS 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
59.4%
Max Johnson run for no gain to the MISS 1Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 0
OPP 1
0
57.5%
Ole Miss Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) to the MISS 1Similar
Q4 4:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.8%
Max Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:4833% → 91%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
32.4%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 19 yds to the MISS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
37.1%
Texas A&M Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the TA&M 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
39.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds to the TA&M 32Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+9
40.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds to the TA&M 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
40.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 4 yds to the TA&M 19Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+1
41.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the TA&M 18Similar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+15
37.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 15 yds to the TA&M 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
39.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the TA&M 1Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21DOWNS
16 plays · 46 yds · 1:3324% → 15%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
76.4%
Max Johnson pass complete to Amari Daniels for 4 yds to the TA&M 29Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
76.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Ainias Smith for 6 yds to the TA&M 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
76.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 4 yds to the TA&M 39Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+11
73.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
50
0
71.4%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 10
50
0
74.8%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 10
50
+19
77.3%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jahdae Walker for 19 yds to the MISS 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
70.1%
Max Johnson sacked by Cedric Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 36 Max Johnson fumbled, recovered by TA&MSimilar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 15
OPP 36
0
79.1%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 15
OPP 36
+7
80.4%
Max Johnson pass complete to Ainias Smith for 7 yds to the MISS 29Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 29
+47
84.9%
Randy Bond 47 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Deantre Prince Bond, Randy field goal attempt from 47 blocked, recovered by OLEMISS TEAM at OLEMISS20 spot at OLEMISS20, clock 00:00 (blocked by Prince, Deantre).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:40
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)
+44.1
TD · Q4 4:34
Max Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
-38.7
TD · Q4 12:04
Amari Daniels run for 1 yd for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)
-20
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com