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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 7 at New Mexico State 13

NMSU
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · Aggie Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NMSU
modelNMSU aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNMSU scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:17 · Trey Turk punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the NMSU 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+18.5+9.30−9.3−18.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Pregame prior+9.9Home team on offense+3.7Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Score differential+0.8Blowout margin+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:48: Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 27 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +14.6 pts (now 46%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:48: Monte Watkins run for 13 yds to the NMSU 38 for a 1ST down — NMSU win probability +8.3 pts (now 63%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 0:51: Ethan Albertson 38 yd FG GOOD — NMSU win probability +8.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:53: Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 27 yds to the NMSU 47 for a 1ST down — NMSU win probability +12.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:57: Nicholas Vattiato run for 11 yds to the MTSU 21 for a 1ST down — MTSU win probability +9.3 pts (now 21%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MTSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 11:32NMSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    60.4%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:50MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:17NMSU 4th & 11 at MTSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    60.0%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:03MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:00MTSU 4th & 3 at MTSU 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:17MTSU 4th & 3 at MTSU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:59NMSU 4th & 9 at MTSU 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    64.5%−4.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:48MTSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:42NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:21NMSU 4th & 12 at NMSU 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−2.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:09MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:51NMSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−2.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    53.2%−12.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:10MTSU 4th & 18 at NMSU 43, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−2.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    26.8%−1.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:58NMSU 4th & 19 at NMSU 13, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−5.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:53MTSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 13, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−3.0
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    10.8%−14.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:57NMSU 4th & 7 at midfield, up 6
    Close callPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:43MTSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 36, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    6.5%−14.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−14.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:00MTSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 15, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.0%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    9.1%−6.9
    83% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−6.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NMSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MTSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 10:17NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:48MTSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 3:2866% → 65%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
65.5%
Monte Watkins run for 14 yds to the NMSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
65.5%
Diego Pavia run for 6 yds to the NMSU 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+11
65.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 11 yds to the MTSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
65.5%
Jamoni Jones run for a loss of 5 yards to the MTSU 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+8
65.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 8 yds to the MTSU 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
65.5%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
65.4%
Zach Haynes punt for 40 yds, downed at the MTSU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:4235% → 35%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
65.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 5 yds to the MTSU 6Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+2
65.3%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the MTSU 8Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+8
65.5%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 8 yds to the MTSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
65.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
65.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 10
OWN 16
0
65.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 10
OWN 16
0
65.5%
Miles Tillman punt for 42 yds , Jonathan Brady returns for no gain New Mexico State Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MTSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3366% → 65%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
65.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 3 yds to the MTSU 41Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+1
65.7%
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the MTSU 40Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
65.6%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 6
OPP 40
-5
65.3%
New Mexico State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Diego Pavia) to the MTSU 45Similar
Q1 8:17
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
64.7%
Zach Haynes punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:1435% → 35%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+15
64.9%
New Mexico State Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Reggie Akles) to the MTSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
64.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
64.8%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the MTSU 29Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
65.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:03
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
65.1%
Trey Turk punt for 34 yds, downed at the NMSU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5INT
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:5265% → 66%
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
65.0%
Star Thomas run for 12 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
65.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 6 yds to the MTSU 45Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
65.6%
Diego Pavia run for no gain to the MTSU 45Similar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+11
65.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 11 yds to the MTSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
65.7%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
65.8%
Diego Pavia pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:1137% → 37%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
63.5%
Jaiden Credle run for 4 yds to the MTSU 45Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+3
63.4%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds to the MTSU 48Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
63.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for no gain to the MTSU 48Similar
Q1 2:00
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
63.4%
Miles Tillman punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 6:4364% → 71%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
64.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 24 yds to the NMSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
65.4%
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the NMSU 45Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+13
65.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 13 yds to the MTSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
65.8%
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the MTSU 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+16
65.7%
Diego Pavia run for 16 yds to the MTSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+22
66.1%
Diego Pavia run for 22 yds to the MTSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
66.1%
Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the MTSU 1Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.2%
Jamoni Jones run for no gain to the MTSU 1Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.2%
Ron Tiavaasue run for 1 yd for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0030% → 29%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
69.6%
Jaiden Credle run for 2 yds to the MTSU 27Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
69.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 4 yds to the MTSU 31Similar
Q2 10:17
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
69.7%
Jaiden Credle run for 1 yd to the MTSU 32Similar
Q2 8:17
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
71.0%
Trey Turk punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the NMSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9MISSED FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:1871% → 72%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
70.9%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
70.8%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+7
70.0%
PAVIA, Diego pass up the middle incomplete intended for BRADY, Jonathan thrown to the NMS40. PENALTY MTS Pass Interference on THOMAS, Jakobe enforced at the spot of the foul for 7 yards to the NMS36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
71.5%
Jamoni Jones run for 6 yds to the NMSU 42Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+30
72.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 30 yds to the MTSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
72.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 11 yds to the MTSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
72.5%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the MTSU 16Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
72.5%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:17
3RD & 9
OPP 16
0
71.9%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:59
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+34
72.3%
Ethan Albertson 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:1129% → 27%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
71.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 3 yds to the MTSU 23Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
71.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 2 yds to the MTSU 25Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+2
72.0%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 2 yds to the MTSU 27Similar
Q2 4:59
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+5
72.6%
TILLMAN, Miles punt 42 yards to the NMS31, BRADY, Jonathan returned 9 yards to the NMS40 (FRANCIS, Drew). PENALTY NMS Running Into the kicker on SELDON, Andre enforced 5 yards from the MTS27 to the MTS32 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
70.9%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 3 yds to the MTSU 35Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
70.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
71.5%
Nicholas Vattiato run for no gain to the MTSU 35Similar
Q2 2:48
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
72.8%
Trey Turk punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the NMSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0673% → 72%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
72.8%
Monte Watkins run for 9 yds to the NMSU 35 New Mexico State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NMSU 18Similar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 18
OWN 18
+12
72.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 12 yds Chris Bellamy fumbled, recovered by NMSU Chris Bellamy PAVIA, Diego pass short up the middle complete for 12 yards to BELLAMY, Chris caught at the NMS21, BELLAMY, Chris fumbled at NMS30 forced by FRANCIS, Drew, recovered by NMS BELLAMY, Chris at the NMS30, returned 0 yards to the NMS30, End of Play.Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
72.8%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+2
72.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Monte Watkins for 2 yds to the NMSU 32Similar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
71.5%
Zach Haynes punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 79 yds · 0:5428% → 46%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
72.0%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 11 yds to the MTSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
71.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
71.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Frank Peasant for 2 yds to the MTSU 34Similar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+30
72.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Frank Peasant for 30 yds to the NMSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
68.8%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 9 yds to the NMSU 27Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+27
54.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 27 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13FG
7 plays · 67 yds · 0:4863% → 69%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
62.5%
Monte Watkins run for 13 yds to the NMSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+32
63.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 32 yds to the MTSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
66.4%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+10
66.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 10 yds to the MTSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
66.4%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+12
66.4%
Diego Pavia run for 12 yds to the MTSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
69.3%
Ethan Albertson 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14INT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:0634% → 34%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
65.6%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 9 yds to the MTSU 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
64.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
65.1%
New Mexico State Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the MTSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
64.2%
VATTIATO, Nicholas scrambles up the middle for a gain of 22 yards to the NMS40 (VINCENT, Jordan), out of bounds. PENALTY MTS Holding on RUTLEDGE, Keylan enforced 10 yards from the MTS38 to the MTS28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+8
65.6%
Frank Peasant run for 8 yds to the MTSU 36Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 12
OWN 36
0
65.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:3367% → 66%
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
67.1%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the NMSU 34Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
67.9%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+13
66.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 13 yds to the NMSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
69.1%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 7
50
0
69.4%
Diego Pavia run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 7
50
-5
68.2%
New Mexico State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMSU 45Similar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 12
OWN 45
0
66.4%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:21
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
65.6%
Zach Haynes punt for 38 yds, downed at the MTSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 2:1234% → 33%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
65.8%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 8 yds to the MTSU 25Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+23
64.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 23 yds to the MTSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
62.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for no gain to the MTSU 48Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
63.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for no gain to the MTSU 48Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
64.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:09
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
66.7%
Miles Tillman punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the NMSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17FG
11 plays · 66 yds · 6:1867% → 78%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
67.0%
Jamoni Jones run for 5 yds to the NMSU 18Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+35
67.0%
Monte Watkins run for 35 yds to the MTSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
70.6%
Jamoni Jones run for 6 yds to the MTSU 41Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+5
70.7%
Jamoni Jones run for 5 yds to the MTSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
70.7%
Diego Pavia run for no gain to the MTSU 36Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+8
70.6%
Diego Pavia run for 8 yds to the MTSU 28Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+7
70.2%
Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the MTSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
71.5%
Jamoni Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTSU 23Similar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 12
OPP 23
0
71.4%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 12
OPP 23
+2
69.4%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the MTSU 21Similar
Q3 0:51
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+38
77.8%
Ethan Albertson 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:4128% → 27%
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
71.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 26 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
67.4%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 4 yds to the NMSU 45Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
67.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+10
68.0%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 10 yds to the NMSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
65.7%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the NMSU 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 34
-7
65.8%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Gabe Peterson and Sterling Webb for a loss of 7 yards to the NMSU 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 41
-2
71.4%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Sterling Webb and Nikhil Webb Walker for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 43Similar
Q4 13:10
4TH & 18
OPP 43
0
73.4%
Miles Tillman punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the NMSU 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 3:1279% → 82%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
78.8%
Monte Watkins run for 4 yds to the NMSU 15Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+7
78.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 7 yds to the NMSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
79.1%
Jamoni Jones run for no gain to the NMSU 22Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-9
78.9%
Diego Pavia sacked by Sam Brumfield for a loss of 9 yards to the NMSU 13Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 19
OWN 13
0
77.5%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 19
OWN 13
0
81.6%
Zach Haynes punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20MISSED FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 3:0526% → 27%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
74.2%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds to the MTSU 41Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+5
73.2%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 5 yds to the MTSU 46Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+37
71.5%
Frank Peasant run for 37 yds to the NMSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
67.0%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMSU 22Similar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+5
68.1%
Jaiden Credle run for 5 yds to the NMSU 17Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
67.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 10
OPP 17
-5
70.4%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NMSU 22Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 15
OPP 22
+9
72.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 9 yds to the NMSU 13Similar
Q4 6:53
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+31
73.5%
Zeke Rankin 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:5686% → 89%
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+27
85.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 27 yds to the NMSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
89.0%
Jamoni Jones run for no gain to the NMSU 47Similar
Q4 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
88.6%
Jamoni Jones run for 8 yds to the MTSU 45Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 2
OPP 45
0
88.6%
Diego Pavia run for no gain to the MTSU 45Similar
Q4 5:56
4TH & 2
OPP 45
-5
87.3%
New Mexico State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:57
4TH & 7
50
0
88.6%
Zach Haynes punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22DOWNS
23 plays · 75 yds · 3:5721% → 16%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
79.4%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 11 yds to the MTSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
79.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 7 yds to the MTSU 28Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+4
76.2%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 4 yds to the MTSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
76.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 10 yds to the MTSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
75.2%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 2
50
+1
71.8%
Jaiden Credle run for 1 yd to the NMSU 49Similar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+4
73.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 4 yds to the NMSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
72.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
73.1%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 15
50
+13
84.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 13 yds to the NMSU 37Similar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 2
OPP 37
-5
79.2%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, False Start (Elijah Metcalf) to the NMSU 42Similar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+6
84.0%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 6 yds to the NMSU 36Similar
Q4 0:43
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+7
83.6%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 7 yds to the NMSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
78.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+13
79.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Frank Peasant for 13 yds to the NMSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
77.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+1
76.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 1 yd to the NMSU 15Similar
Q4 0:09
3RD & 9
OPP 15
0
80.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 15
0
84.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+16
TD · Q2 0:48
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 27 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)
-14.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 6:53
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 27 yds to the NMSU 47 for a 1ST down
+12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com