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UK

Kentucky 24 at Mississippi State 3

MSST
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadUK aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreUK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:46 · Keelan Crimmins punt for 55 yds, downed at the UK 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 54Home team on offense−8.5Score differential−4.0Pregame prior−6.9Garbage-time factor−2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:35: D'Eryk Jackson 28 Yd Interception Return (Alex Raynor Kick) — UK win probability +8.8 pts (now 69%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:52: Dane Key 4 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Alex Raynor Kick) — UK win probability +17.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:46: Mike Wright run for 12 yds to the MSST 32 for a 1ST down — MSST win probability +7.6 pts (now 20%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 14:59: Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for no gain to the UK 25 — UK win probability +3.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 5:51: Alex Raynor 32 Yd Field Goal — UK win probability +5.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 9 of 11UK made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 14:11MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:42MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:20UK 4th & 8 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:51MSST 4th & 6 at UK 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    30.6%−6.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:43UK 4th & 3 at UK 45, up 4
    Close callPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:46MSST 4th & 12 at MSST 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:03MSST 4th & 2 at UK 42, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    18.2%−2.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    19.1%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:31UK 4th & 2 at UK 33, up 18
    Close callPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:40MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 43, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:51UK 4th & 4 at MSST 13, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.5%−0.3
    85% to make
    Punt
    82.5%−7.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:35MSST 4th & 9 at MSST 11, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:52UK 4th & 16 at midfield, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:47MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 17, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:08UK 4th & 6 at MSST 36, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    97.6%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    97.4%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:55MSST 4th & 4 at UK 14, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%−0.3
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−1.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:58MSST 4th & 18 at UK 18, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.6
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−1.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:52UK 4th & 11 at UK 22, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:07MSST 4th & 20 at MSST 36, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:39UK 4th & 11 at UK 45, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:11UK Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:35UK Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:52UK Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4938% → 39%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
38.3%
Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the MSST 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
38.3%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
38.3%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:11
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
38.5%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 35 yds, downed at the UK 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 4:0062% → 62%
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
38.5%
Ray Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the UK 36Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+6
38.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 6 yds to the UK 42Similar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+7
38.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 7 yds to the UK 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+37
38.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 37 yds to the MSST 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
38.4%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the MSST 12Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
39.2%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+8
39.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Dane Key for 8 yds to the MSST 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
37.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 4 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2239% → 38%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
38.5%
Zavion Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 29Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
38.4%
Seth Davis run for no gain to the MSST 29Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 11
OWN 29
0
38.2%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 11
OWN 29
0
37.9%
Andrew Osteen punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the UK 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:2262% → 62%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
37.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 16 yds to the UK 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
37.2%
Ray Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the UK 44Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 14
OWN 44
+6
37.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ray Davis for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 8
50
0
37.2%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 8
50
0
37.8%
Wilson Berry punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MSST 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5FG
22 plays · 88 yds · 12:2938% → 43%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+11
38.1%
Mike Wright pass complete to Justin Robinson for 11 yds to the MSST 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+16
38.2%
Simeon Price run for 16 yds to the MSST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
38.4%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
38.4%
PITTMAN, Jeffery rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the MSU35 (AFARI JR., Alex;JACKSON, D'Eryk). PENALTY UK Offsides on RYBKA, Tre'vonn enforced 5 yards from the MSU32 to the MSU37 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+4
38.8%
Zavion Thomas run for 4 yds to the MSST 41Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
38.8%
Mike Wright run for 2 yds to the MSST 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
38.8%
Mike Wright run for 5 yds to the MSST 48Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+4
39.1%
Mike Wright run for 4 yds to the UK 48Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+3
39.2%
Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds to the UK 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
39.2%
Mike Wright pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 2 yds to the UK 43Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+3
39.5%
Jeffery Pittman run for 3 yds to the UK 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-5
39.4%
(15:00) WRIGHT, Mike pass up the middle complete for 19 yards to ROBINSON, Justin caught at the UK26 and advanced to the UK21 (WALKER, Deone). PENALTY MSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on SMITH, Cole enforced 5 yards from the UK40 to the UK45 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+13
38.5%
Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 13 yds to the UK 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
40.3%
Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the UK 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+9
40.3%
Mike Wright pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 9 yds to the UK 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
40.3%
Mike Wright pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 3 yds to the UK 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 18
-6
40.3%
Mike Wright sacked by Zion Childress for a loss of 6 yards to the UK 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 24
+13
38.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 13 yds to the UK 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
40.3%
Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the UK 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
40.3%
Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 2 yds to the UK 9Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+2
39.5%
Mike Wright run for 2 yds to the UK 7Similar
Q2 8:51
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+25
43.3%
Kyle Ferrie 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:0559% → 60%
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
41.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Dane Key for 13 yds to the UK 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
40.1%
Ramon Jefferson run for no gain to the UK 38Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
40.2%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+7
40.9%
Devin Leary run for 7 yds to the UK 45Similar
Q2 6:43
4TH & 3
OWN 45
0
40.1%
Wilson Berry punt for 32 yds, downed at the MSST 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-28
31.3%
D'Eryk Jackson 28 Yd Interception Return (Alex Raynor Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4931% → 29%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
31.3%
Seth Davis run for 5 yds to the MSST 30Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
31.7%
Mike Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 29Similar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-6
31.0%
Mike Wright sacked by Alex Afari Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the MSST 23Similar
Q2 4:46
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
29.2%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 55 yds, downed at the UK 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9TD
11 plays · 63 yds · 3:5469% → 88%
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
30.6%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+8
29.7%
Ray Davis run for 8 yds to the MSST 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
29.2%
Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the MSST 42Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+9
29.3%
Ray Davis run for 9 yds to the MSST 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
29.3%
Ray Davis run for 3 yds to the MSST 30Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+22
29.2%
Barion Brown run for 22 yds to the MSST 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
29.2%
DAVIS, Ray rush to the right for no gain to the MSU8 (JOHNSON, Jett;WATSON, Nathaniel). PENALTY MSU Personal Foul on PAGE, DeShawn enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the MSU8 to the MSU4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
29.2%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
29.6%
Ray Davis run for 9 yds to the UK 46Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
12.3%
Dane Key 4 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Alex Raynor Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10DOWNS
9 plays · 38 yds · 0:4320% → 20%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
20.0%
Mike Wright run for 12 yds to the MSST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
20.2%
Mike Wright pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 7 yds to the MSST 39Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+11
21.2%
Mike Wright pass complete to Justin Robinson for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
50
0
22.0%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
50
0
21.8%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 10
50
+8
20.3%
Mike Wright run for 8 yds to the UK 42Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
19.9%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2884% → 84%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for no gain to the UK 25Similar
Q3 14:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
16.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 8 yds to the UK 33Similar
Q3 14:59
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
16.3%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
16.1%
Wilson Berry punt for 44 yds, downed at the MSST 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:5118% → 16%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
17.5%
Mike Wright run for 6 yds to the MSST 29Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+12
18.1%
Lideatrick Griffin run for 12 yds to the MSST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
18.9%
Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the MSST 43Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
18.8%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
18.5%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:40
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
16.4%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the UK 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13FG
13 plays · 72 yds · 5:4986% → 96%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
14.2%
Kentucky Penalty, Offensive Holding (Josh Kattus) to the UK 9Similar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 16
OWN 9
+14
13.0%
Ray Davis run for 14 yds to the UK 23Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+2
14.0%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the UK 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
14.0%
Ray Davis run for 3 yds to the UK 28Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
14.0%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+28
14.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 28 yds to the MSST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
13.1%
Ray Davis run for 6 yds to the MSST 38Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+19
12.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 19 yds to the MSST 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
10.0%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+6
9.3%
Ray Davis run for 6 yds to the MSST 13Similar
Q3 6:46
3RD & 4
OPP 13
0
9.3%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+32
3.9%
Alex Raynor 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 2:107% → 6%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
6.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 6 yds to the MSST 16Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 4
OWN 16
-6
6.6%
Mike Wright run for a loss of 6 yards to the MSST 10Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+1
6.5%
Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 1 yd to the MSST 11Similar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 9
OWN 11
0
5.5%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the MSST 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 2:4397% → 96%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
2.9%
Ramon Jefferson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 46Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 12
OPP 46
-5
2.9%
Devin Leary sacked by Nathaniel Watson and Jaden Crumedy for a loss of 5 yards to the UK 49Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 17
OWN 49
-5
2.9%
Kentucky Penalty, Delay Of Game (Devin Leary) to the UK 44Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 22
OWN 44
+6
2.9%
Ramon Jefferson run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:52
4TH & 16
50
0
2.6%
Wilson Berry punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MSST 18Similar
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
4.5%
Mississippi State Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the MSST 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:055% → 4%
Q3 0:52
1ST & 15
OWN 13
-7
4.5%
Mississippi State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Kameron Jones) to the MSST 10Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 18
OWN 10
+7
4.2%
Chris Parson pass complete to Justin Robinson for 7 yds to the MSST 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 17
0
4.1%
Chris Parson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 11
OWN 17
0
4.1%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Barion Brown at the UK 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17DOWNS
6 plays · 15 yds · 3:3998% → 98%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
2.1%
Ray Davis run for no gain to the UK 49Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+11
2.1%
Kaiya Sheron pass complete to Dane Key for 11 yds to the MSST 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
2.1%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the MSST 38Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+5
2.1%
Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the MSST 33Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 3
OPP 33
-3
2.1%
Ray Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSST 36Similar
Q4 11:08
4TH & 6
OPP 36
0
1.6%
Kaiya Sheron pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18DOWNS
15 plays · 41 yds · 5:103% → 2%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+34
2.8%
Chris Parson pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 34 yds to the UK 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
3.5%
Chris Parson pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 3 yds to the UK 27Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
3.5%
Chris Parson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+11
3.2%
Chris Parson run for 11 yds to the UK 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
3.6%
Chris Parson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
3.6%
Chris Parson pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 3 yds to the UK 13Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 7
OPP 13
-15
3.4%
Mississippi State Penalty, Personal Foul (Steven Losoya III) to the UK 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
3.5%
Chris Parson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
3.4%
Chris Parson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:55
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+6
2.6%
Jeffery Pittman run for 6 yds to the UK 14Similar
Q4 7:55
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+12
2.7%
Chris Parson pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 12 yds to the UK 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
4.1%
Jeffery Pittman run for no gain to the UK 2Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
4.2%
Mississippi State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Chris Parson) to the UK 18Similar
Q4 7:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
0
2.5%
Chris Parson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 18
-5
1.5%
Chris Parson sacked by J.J. Weaver for a loss of 5 yards to the UK 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:0699% → 99%
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-6
0.9%
Kaiya Sheron pass complete to Barion Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the UK 17Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 16
OWN 17
+6
0.9%
Ray Davis run for 6 yds to the UK 23Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 10
OWN 23
-1
0.9%
Ray Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 22Similar
Q4 3:52
4TH & 11
OWN 22
0
0.7%
Wilson Berry punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MSST 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:451% → 1%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
1.1%
Chris Parson sacked by Tre'vonn Rybka and Tavion Gadson for a loss of 10 yards to the MSST 36Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 20
OWN 36
0
1.0%
Chris Parson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 20
OWN 36
0
1.0%
Chris Parson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:07
4TH & 20
OWN 36
0
0.9%
Andrew Osteen punt for 18 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 2:28100% → 100%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
0.5%
Ray Davis run for 7 yds to the MSST 47Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+2
0.5%
Ramon Jefferson run for 2 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
0.5%
Ramon Jefferson run for no gain to the MSST 45Similar
Q4 3:07
4TH & 1
OPP 45
-5
0.6%
JEFFERSON, Ramon rush to the right for a gain of 8 yards to the MSU37 (MITCHELL, Nic;NICHOLSON, DeCarlos). PENALTY Before the snap, UK Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the MSU45 to the UK50. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:07
4TH & 6
50
-5
0.6%
Kentucky Penalty, Delay Of Game (Demie Sumo-Karngbaye) to the UK 45Similar
Q4 0:39
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
0.4%
Wilson Berry punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MSST 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · 12 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
0.7%
Seth Davis run for 12 yds to the MSST 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:52
Dane Key 4 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Alex Raynor Kick)
-17.3
TD · Q2 6:35
D'Eryk Jackson 28 Yd Interception Return (Alex Raynor Kick)
-8.8
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:46
Mike Wright run for 12 yds to the MSST 32 for a 1ST down
+7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com