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ILL

Illinois 27 at Minnesota 26

MINN
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:25 · Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 150Home team on offense−7.7Pregame prior+0.0Garbage-time factor−6.3Score differential−1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:33: Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 9 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK) — ILL win probability +4.9 pts (now 48%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:58: Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 31 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +5.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:16: Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 54 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK) — ILL win probability +14.8 pts (now 50%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:53: Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 31 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — MINN win probability +28.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:50: John Paddock pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 46 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — ILL win probability +66.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 7 of 9ILL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 0:00MINN 4th & 3 at ILL 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    51.4%−1.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    51.1%−1.4
    average punt
  2. Q2 8:45ILL 4th & 7 at MINN 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    41.4%−2.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 1:20MINN 4th & 5 at ILL 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.4%
    79% to make
    Punt
    53.5%−4.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:27ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:16MINN 4th & 13 at ILL 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−2.3
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    53.6%−8.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:29MINN 4th & 22 at MINN 30, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−5.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:38ILL 4th & 12 at ILL 30, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−3.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:22MINN 4th & 6 at MINN 36, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−1.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:08ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 30, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:53MINN 4th & 12 at MINN 36, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−4.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:37ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 32, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−6.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:15MINN 4th & 3 at MINN 48, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%−3.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:47MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 45, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%−1.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:47ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 15, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.3%
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.3%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:25MINN 4th & 10 at MINN 25, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.2%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.1%−4.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:32ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:23MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:33ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:58MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:16ILL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:53MINN Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    77.7%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    78.6%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:50ILL Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    65.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1TD
3 plays · 20 yds · 1:2143% → 44%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
57.1%
Luke Altmyer run for 1 yd to the MINN 19Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+4
57.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 4 yds to the MINN 15Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+15
56.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tip Reiman for 15 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 3:0957% → 58%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
56.7%
Jordan Nubin run for 6 yds to the MINN 41Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+4
56.8%
Jordan Nubin run for 4 yds to the MINN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
56.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Corey Crooms Jr. for 11 yds to the ILL 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
56.9%
Jordan Nubin run for 5 yds to the ILL 39Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+24
56.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 24 yds to the ILL 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
58.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 15 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:5043% → 48%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
57.3%
Kaden Feagin run for 5 yds to the ILL 30Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
57.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 6 yds to the ILL 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
57.1%
Kaden Feagin run for 6 yds to the ILL 42Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+6
56.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 6 yds to the ILL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
56.8%
Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 8
50
+7
56.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 7 yds to the MINN 43Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
56.8%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the MINN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
56.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 18 yds to the MINN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
56.6%
Kaden Feagin run for 7 yds to the MINN 15Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+2
56.6%
Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds to the MINN 13Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+2
56.8%
Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds to the MINN 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
56.6%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
56.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 2 yds to the MINN 9Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+9
51.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 9 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:3553% → 59%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
53.1%
Zach Evans run for 12 yds to the MINN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
53.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 20 yds to the ILL 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
54.5%
Zach Evans run for 4 yds to the ILL 39Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-4
54.5%
Zach Evans run for a loss of 4 yards to the ILL 43Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+7
54.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 7 yds to the ILL 36Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+3
52.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Corey Crooms Jr. for 3 yds to the ILL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
53.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+2
53.8%
Jordan Nubin run for 2 yds to the ILL 31Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+31
59.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 31 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5MISSED FG
14 plays · 46 yds · 5:1343% → 45%
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
56.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Casey Washington for 6 yds to the ILL 31Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
56.1%
Illinois Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ILL 26Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
56.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 14 yds to the ILL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
55.8%
Kaden Feagin run for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 39Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 11
OWN 39
0
55.9%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+18
56.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Casey Washington for 18 yds to the MINN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
54.5%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the MINN 40Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+6
54.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 6 yds to the MINN 34Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
54.3%
Luke Altmyer run for 2 yds to the MINN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
53.9%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
54.0%
Luke Altmyer run for 3 yds to the MINN 29Similar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
54.8%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:45
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+47
55.2%
Caleb Griffin 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6FG
14 plays · 53 yds · 7:2358% → 63%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
58.2%
Zach Evans run for 5 yds to the MINN 34Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
58.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+10
57.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 10 yds to the MINN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
59.9%
Jordan Nubin run for 3 yds to the MINN 47Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+8
60.0%
Jordan Nubin run for 8 yds to the ILL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
60.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Corey Crooms Jr. for 9 yds to the ILL 36Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 1
OPP 36
0
60.4%
Zach Evans run for no gain to the ILL 36Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+3
59.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 3 yds to the ILL 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
60.9%
Jordan Nubin run for 10 yds to the ILL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
60.9%
Jordan Nubin run for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 24Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+2
60.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 2 yds to the ILL 22Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+4
60.2%
Jordan Nubin run for 4 yds to the ILL 18Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+36
62.6%
Dragan Kesich 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:5339% → 38%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
60.8%
Kaden Feagin run for 5 yds to the ILL 30Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
60.0%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 7 yds to the ILL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
59.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Griffin Moore for 3 yds to the ILL 40Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-8
59.2%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Danny Striggow for a loss of 8 yards to the ILL 32Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+8
63.0%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 8 yds to the ILL 40Similar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
61.9%
Hugh Robertson punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
62.1%
[NH] Kneel down by KALIAKMANIS, Athan at UMN25 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9FUMBLE
3 plays · -13 yds · 1:1239% → 37%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
61.4%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the ILL 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
61.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the ILL 26Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-14
62.9%
Luke Altmyer sacked for a loss of 14 yards to the ILL 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10FG
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3267% → 68%
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
66.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:48
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+3
66.6%
Jordan Nubin run for 3 yds to the ILL 9Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 7
OPP 9
-6
65.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Jer'Zhan Newton for a loss of 6 yards to the ILL 15Similar
Q3 12:16
4TH & 13
OPP 15
+34
68.1%
Dragan Kesich 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:0033% → 50%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.8%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
67.0%
Kaden Feagin run for 8 yds to the ILL 33Similar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+12
66.2%
Kaden Feagin run for 12 yds to the ILL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
64.6%
Kaden Feagin run for 1 yd to the ILL 46Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+54
49.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 54 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 2:4754% → 51%
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
53.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 6 yds to the MINN 31Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
55.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 11 yds to the MINN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
56.7%
Zach Evans run for 2 yds to the MINN 44Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-5
56.8%
Minnesota Penalty, False Start (Aireontae Ersery) to the MINN 39Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 13
OWN 39
0
54.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:16
3RD & 13
OWN 39
-9
52.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Seth Coleman for a loss of 9 yards to the MINN 30Similar
Q3 7:29
4TH & 22
OWN 30
0
50.6%
Mark Crawford punt for 49 yds, downed at the ILL 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:5148% → 46%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
51.8%
Luke Altmyer run for no gain to the ILL 21Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+11
52.2%
Kaden Feagin run for 11 yds to the ILL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
50.9%
ALTMYER, Luke pass to the right incomplete thrown to the ILL40. PENALTY UMN Offsides on JOYNER, Jah enforced 5 yards from the ILL32 to the ILL37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 5
OWN 37
0
49.7%
Luke Altmyer run for no gain to the ILL 37Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-1
49.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the ILL 36Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 6
OWN 36
-6
51.6%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Jah Joyner for a loss of 6 yards to the ILL 30Similar
Q3 4:38
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
54.2%
Hugh Robertson punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1654% → 51%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
53.5%
Zach Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 31Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+5
52.8%
Jordan Nubin run for 5 yds to the MINN 36Similar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
52.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:22
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
51.1%
Mark Crawford punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Clayton Bush at the ILL 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:1449% → 47%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
50.7%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 4 yds to the ILL 30Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
49.8%
Kaden Feagin run for no gain to the ILL 30Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+5
51.5%
Luke Altmyer run for 5 yds to the ILL 35Similar
Q3 3:22
4TH & 1
OWN 35
-5
51.6%
Illinois Penalty, False Start (Jaheim Clarke) to the ILL 30Similar
Q3 1:08
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
53.3%
Hugh Robertson punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:1551% → 48%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
51.1%
Jordan Nubin run for 3 yds to the MINN 23 for a 1ST down Illinois Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Tahveon Nicholson) to the MINN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
53.3%
Zach Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the MINN 36Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 12
OWN 36
0
51.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 36
0
49.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
48.0%
Mark Crawford punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Clayton Bush at the ILL 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 3:1651% → 49%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
48.9%
Kaden Feagin run for 4 yds to the ILL 23Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+4
48.6%
Kaden Feagin run for 4 yds to the ILL 27Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+5
49.0%
Isaiah Williams run for 5 yds to the ILL 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
47.8%
Luke Altmyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
48.6%
Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds to the ILL 34Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 8
OWN 34
-2
49.8%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Kyler Baugh and Jalen Logan-Redding for a loss of 2 yards to the ILL 32Similar
Q4 11:37
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
51.0%
Hugh Robertson punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 3:2250% → 51%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
50.1%
Jordan Nubin run for 7 yds to the MINN 38Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+3
54.3%
Jordan Nubin run for 3 yds to the MINN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
53.7%
Jordan Nubin run for 3 yds to the MINN 44Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+6
54.1%
Jordan Nubin run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 1
50
-2
54.1%
Jordan Nubin run for a loss of 2 yards to the MINN 48Similar
Q4 8:15
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
51.0%
Mark Crawford punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the ILL 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:3756% → 56%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
44.4%
Isaiah Williams run for no gain to the ILL 13Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+7
44.1%
Kaden Feagin run for 7 yds to the ILL 20Similar
Q4 6:38
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+14
44.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 14 yds Isaiah Williams fumbled, recovered by MINN Justin Walley [NHSG] ALTMYER, Luke pass short up the middle complete for 14 yards to WILLIAMS, Isaiah caught at the ILL25, WILLIAMS, Isaiah fumbled at ILL34 forced by LINDENBERG, Cody, recovered by UMN WALLEY, Justin at the ILL34, returned 0 yards to the ILL34, End of Play, clock 06:38.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20TD
2 plays · 34 yds · 0:4561% → 89%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
60.5%
Jordan Nubin run for 3 yds to the ILL 31Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+31
89.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 31 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21INT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:4919% → 18%
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
80.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 5 yds to the ILL 30Similar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
79.8%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the ILL 33Similar
Q4 5:53
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
79.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 4 yds to the ILL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
79.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for a loss of 2 yards to the ILL 35Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
82.2%
Luke Altmyer pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1789% → 90%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
88.5%
Jordan Nubin run for 3 yds to the MINN 42Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+3
91.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 3 yds to the MINN 45Similar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
90.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:47
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
89.9%
Mark Crawford punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 1:5713% → 80%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
86.6%
Kaden Feagin run for no gain to the ILL 16Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
87.0%
ALTMYER, Luke pass deep to the right complete for 19 yards to BRYANT, Pat caught at the ILL35 and advanced to the ILL35 (JONES, Tre'Von), out of bounds. PENALTY ILL Holding on CRISLER, Zy enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the ILL16 to the ILL8 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 18
OWN 8
+7
87.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 7 yds to the ILL 15Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 11
OWN 15
0
87.8%
Luke Altmyer sacked for 0 yards to the ILL 15Similar
Q4 2:47
4TH & 11
OWN 15
+22
88.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 22 yds to the ILL 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
86.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Pat Bryant for 17 yds to the MINN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
19.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 46 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2543% → 34%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.7%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
39.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for no gain to the MINN 25Similar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
37.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
34.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
12.9%
Kneel down by PADDOCK, John at UMN26 (team loss of 1).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:50
John Paddock pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 46 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-66.4
TD · Q4 5:53
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 31 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+28.5
TD · Q3 10:16
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 54 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)
-14.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com