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NEB

Nebraska 17 at Michigan State 20

MSU
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadNEB aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreNEB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:55 · Ryan Eckley punt for 50 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialDefense timeouts
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 129Home team on offense+23.7Pregame prior−1.1Garbage-time factor+11.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+17.2Score differential+3.0Defense timeouts−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:14: Katin Houser pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 11 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK) — MSU win probability +9.1 pts (now 54%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:06: Tristan Alvano 24 yd FG GOOD — NEB win probability +13.1 pts (now 52%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:13: Sam Leavitt pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 25 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK) — MSU win probability +21.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:35: Emmett Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD (Tristan Alvano KICK) — NEB win probability +35.8 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:35: Katin Houser pass incomplete — MSU win probability +22.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11NEB made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:51MSU 4th & 9 at NEB 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    43.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:29NEB 4th & 7 at NEB 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:24MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:24NEB 4th & 2 at MSU 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    54.3%−0.5
    25% to make
    Punt
    54.5%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:11MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:43NEB 4th & 11 at NEB 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:02MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−1.0
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:06NEB 4th & 5 at MSU 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−1.8
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    42.5%−5.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:35NEB 4th & 6 at MSU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    50.4%−2.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:35MSU 4th & 1 at NEB 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    50.4%−2.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:11MSU 4th & 9 at NEB 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.6%
    49% to make
    Punt
    52.1%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:31NEB 4th & 14 at NEB 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−5.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:08MSU 4th & 23 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−5.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:28NEB 4th & 9 at NEB 8, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−2.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:42NEB 4th & 7 at NEB 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:55MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 44, up 10
    Close callPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:31MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 34, up 10
    Close callPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%−1.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:32MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:43MSU 4th & 9 at NEB 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−3.7
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    75.6%−17.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NEB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 12:40NEB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:14MSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 12:13MSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:35NEB Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.5%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1FG
8 plays · 71 yds · 3:0442% → 44%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
42.3%
Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the MSU 13Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+5
42.3%
Nathan Carter run for 5 yds to the MSU 18Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+17
42.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Brennan Parachek for 17 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+46
42.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jaylan Franklin for 46 yds to the NEB 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
42.3%
Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the NEB 18Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
42.3%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
42.3%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:51
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+35
43.7%
Jonathan Kim 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2256% → 56%
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
43.6%
Joshua Fleeks run for 6 yds to the NEB 31Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-3
43.4%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Alex Bullock for a loss of 3 yards to the NEB 28Similar
Q1 11:51
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
43.7%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:29
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
44.4%
Brian Buschini punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the MSU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0544% → 45%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
44.2%
Jaren Mangham run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 26Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+6
44.1%
Katin Houser run for 6 yds to the MSU 32Similar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
44.0%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:24
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
44.7%
Ryan Eckley punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 4INT
10 plays · 34 yds · 5:4555% → 53%
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
45.0%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 5 yds to the NEB 20Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+11
45.0%
Emmett Johnson run for 11 yds to the NEB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
44.8%
Anthony Grant run for 16 yds to the NEB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
44.4%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
44.6%
Jaylen Lloyd run for 6 yds to the MSU 47Similar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+2
44.4%
Emmett Johnson run for 2 yds to the MSU 45Similar
Q1 9:24
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+3
44.7%
Heinrich Haarberg run for 3 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
44.3%
Heinrich Haarberg sacked by Maverick Hansen for a loss of 5 yards to the MSU 47Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 15
OPP 47
-4
44.7%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Jaylen Lloyd for a loss of 4 yards to the NEB 49Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 19
OWN 49
0
46.6%
Heinrich Haarberg pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2847% → 47%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+7
47.0%
Nathan Carter run for 7 yds to the MSU 11Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 3
OWN 11
-5
47.2%
Sam Leavitt sacked by Mikai Gbayor and Luke Reimer for a loss of 5 yards to the MSU 6Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 8
OWN 6
0
46.5%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:11
4TH & 8
OWN 6
0
46.5%
Ryan Eckley punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 6TD
10 plays · 59 yds · 4:3154% → 60%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
46.2%
Joshua Fleeks run for 3 yds to the NEB 44Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+3
46.0%
Emmett Johnson run for 3 yds to the NEB 47Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+27
46.0%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 27 yds to the MSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
45.0%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
45.7%
Anthony Grant run for no gain to the MSU 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+11
46.4%
Emmett Johnson run for 11 yds to the MSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
45.4%
Emmett Johnson run for 3 yds to the MSU 12Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+8
45.4%
Joshua Fleeks run for 8 yds to the MSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
45.4%
Emmett Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 5Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
40.3%
Heinrich Haarberg run for 5 yds for a TD (Tristan Alvano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:2642% → 54%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
42.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Nathan Carter for 9 yds to the MSU 34Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
43.7%
Nathan Carter run for 9 yds to the MSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
43.9%
Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 46Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+42
44.2%
Alante Brown pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 42 yds to the NEB 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
45.2%
Michigan State Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the NEB 17Similar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+6
45.1%
Katin Houser run for 6 yds to the NEB 11Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
54.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 11 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:3147% → 46%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
52.6%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Alex Bullock for 22 yds to the NEB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
50.7%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-1
51.2%
Anthony Grant run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEB 46Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 11
OWN 46
0
52.3%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:43
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
54.5%
Brian Buschini punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the MSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 2:4154% → 53%
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
53.9%
Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the MSU 22Similar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 18
OWN 12
0
53.7%
Nathan Carter run for no gain to the MSU 12Similar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 18
OWN 12
+16
52.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 16 yds to the MSU 28Similar
Q2 7:43
4TH & 2
OWN 28
-5
52.4%
Michigan State Penalty, False Start (Montorie Foster Jr.) to the MSU 23Similar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-10
53.7%
HOUSER, Katin scrambles up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the MSU29, End of Play. PENALTY MSU Holding on BROWN, Spencer enforced 10 yards from the MSU22 to the MSU12 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:02
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
53.3%
Ryan Eckley punt for 57 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 10FG
17 plays · 74 yds · 4:1142% → 52%
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
57.6%
Heinrich Haarberg run for 1 yd to the NEB 21Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
57.8%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:17
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+11
58.8%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Thomas Fidone II for 11 yds to the NEB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
57.1%
Emmett Johnson run for 3 yds to the NEB 35Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-7
56.9%
Heinrich Haarberg sacked by Khris Bogle for a loss of 7 yards to the NEB 28Similar
Q2 4:17
3RD & 14
OWN 28
+15
58.9%
Michigan State Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
54.7%
Anthony Grant run for 1 yd to the MSU 40Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+15
54.9%
Michigan State Penalty, Personal Foul (Jaden Mangham) to the MSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
53.1%
HAARBERG, Heinrich pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for BONNER, Janiran thrown to the MSU3. PENALTY MSU Holding on TATUM, Dillon NEB Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on BENHART, Bryce , Offsetting penalties [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
53.1%
Michigan State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Dillon Tatum) to the MSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
53.1%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
56.3%
Emmett Johnson run for 2 yds to the MSU 9Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+3
60.8%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Joshua Fleeks for 3 yds to the MSU 6Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+24
47.7%
Tristan Alvano 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
51.9%
Nathan Carter run for 6 yds to the MSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 3:2553% → 53%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
47.1%
Anthony Grant run for 3 yds to the NEB 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
46.8%
Anthony Grant run for 11 yds to the NEB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
45.4%
Emmett Johnson run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
44.0%
Heinrich Haarberg run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+4
44.5%
Anthony Grant run for 4 yds to the MSU 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
44.5%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:35
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
47.5%
Brian Buschini punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the MSU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13FG
13 plays · 53 yds · 6:2450% → 61%
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+28
50.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 28 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
53.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 5 yds to the MSU 47Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+4
54.2%
Alante Brown run for 4 yds to the NEB 49Similar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 1
OPP 49
0
53.9%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:35
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+2
52.1%
Katin Houser run for 2 yds to the NEB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
54.8%
Katin Houser run for 2 yds to the NEB 45Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-3
54.7%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jaren Mangham for a loss of 3 yards to the NEB 48Similar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+14
51.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 14 yds to the NEB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
55.8%
Katin Houser run for 1 yd to the NEB 33Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 9
OPP 33
0
55.6%
Nathan Carter run for no gain to the NEB 33Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 9
OPP 33
0
56.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Nathan Carter for no gain to the NEB 33Similar
Q3 5:11
4TH & 9
OPP 33
+50
61.1%
Jonathan Kim 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:4043% → 39%
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
56.6%
Anthony Grant run for a loss of 2 yards to the NEB 23Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-2
57.2%
Heinrich Haarberg sacked by Jalen Thompson and Jordan Hall for a loss of 2 yards to the NEB 21Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
58.8%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:31
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
61.3%
Brian Buschini punt for 28 yds, downed at the NEB 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 3:2363% → 58%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
63.1%
Nathan Carter run for 5 yds to the NEB 44Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+7
63.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 7 yds to the NEB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-8
63.3%
Katin Houser sacked by Cameron Lenhardt for a loss of 8 yards to the NEB 45Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 18
OPP 45
+2
61.2%
Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the NEB 43Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 16
OPP 43
-7
59.5%
Katin Houser sacked by James Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:08
4TH & 23
50
0
58.3%
Ryan Eckley punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3240% → 35%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
60.2%
Joshua Fleeks run for 2 yds to the NEB 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+3
60.7%
Anthony Grant run for 3 yds to the NEB 12Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 12
-4
61.6%
Heinrich Haarberg sacked by Aaron Brule for a loss of 4 yards to the NEB 8Similar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 9
OWN 8
0
65.1%
Brian Buschini punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 38 yds · 1:1569% → 90%
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
68.9%
Montorie Foster Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
68.4%
Nathan Carter run for 6 yds to the NEB 32Similar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+7
68.3%
Sam Leavitt run for 7 yds to the NEB 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
89.8%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 25 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3116% → 13%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.0%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
84.3%
Heinrich Haarberg sacked by Jalen Thompson and Maverick Hansen for a loss of 2 yards to the NEB 23Similar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+5
85.3%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Ty Hahn for 5 yds to the NEB 28Similar
Q4 10:42
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
86.6%
punt blocked by blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4794% → 95%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
93.6%
Alante Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the MSU 33Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 14
OWN 33
0
93.3%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 14
OWN 33
+11
93.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 11 yds to the MSU 44Similar
Q4 8:55
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
95.4%
Ryan Eckley punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 20INT
6 plays · 41 yds · 2:4712% → 9%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+30
88.3%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Malachi Coleman for 30 yds to the NEB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
88.4%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Emmett Johnson for 6 yds to the NEB 42Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
87.8%
Emmett Johnson run for 3 yds to the NEB 45Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
88.4%
Emmett Johnson run for 2 yds to the NEB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
87.6%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
90.9%
Heinrich Haarberg pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3797% → 97%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.0%
Katin Houser run for 3 yds to the MSU 28Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
97.1%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
96.9%
Katin Houser run for 6 yds to the MSU 34Similar
Q4 4:31
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
97.3%
Ryan Eckley punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 22TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 0:568% → 45%
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
92.3%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Alex Bullock for 18 yds to the MSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
91.2%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+43
91.1%
Heinrich Haarberg run for 43 yds to the MSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
55.3%
Emmett Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD (Tristan Alvano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0377% → 82%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.3%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
76.5%
Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the MSU 27Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
81.7%
Katin Houser pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 4 yds to the MSU 31Similar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
82.2%
Ryan Eckley punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 24FUMBLE
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4426% → 21%
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
74.5%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
75.1%
Emmett Johnson run for 3 yds to the NEB 25Similar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 7
OWN 25
-3
79.1%
Heinrich Haarberg sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the NEB 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25MISSED FG
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:0090% → 91%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
90.1%
Alante Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the NEB 29Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+2
90.0%
Katin Houser run for 2 yds to the NEB 27Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
91.8%
Nathan Carter run for no gain to the NEB 27Similar
Q4 0:43
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+44
90.9%
Jonathan Kim 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4318% → 16%
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
82.3%
Heinrich Haarberg pass complete to Malachi Coleman for 9 yds to the NEB 36Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+10
78.8%
HAARBERG, Heinrich pass to the left incomplete intended for DOSS, Jaidyn thrown to the NEB50. PENALTY MSU Holding on SPENCER, Malik enforced 10 yards from the NEB36 to the NEB46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-18
79.0%
Heinrich Haarberg sacked for a loss of 18 yards to the NEB 28Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 28
OWN 28
0
84.1%
Heinrich Haarberg pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:35
Emmett Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD (Tristan Alvano KICK)
-35.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:35
Katin Houser pass incomplete
+22
TD · Q4 12:13
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 25 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)
+21.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com