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PSU

Penn State 51 at Maryland 15

MD
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · SECU Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:56 · Riley Thompson punt for 43 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 25Home team on offense−1.8Score differential−0.7Pregame prior−17.3Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:59: Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 7 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — MD win probability +7.3 pts (now 34%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:34: Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 8 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK) — PSU win probability +5.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 9:26: Alex Felkins 30 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +4.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:55: Drew Allar pass complete to Dante Cephas for 15 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK) — PSU win probability +5.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:27: Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 1 yd for a TD (A. Littleton II Run For Two-point Conversion) — MD win probability +9.4 pts (now 13%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 4 of 5PSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:26MD 4th & 1 at MD 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:56PSU 4th & 19 at PSU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−0.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:00MD 4th & 4 at MD 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:20MD 4th & 7 at PSU 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  5. Q3 14:56PSU 4th & 1 at MD 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    77.0%−2.8
    42% to make
    Punt
    76.8%−3.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:26PSU 4th & 3 at MD 13, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.2%−0.4
    85% to make
    Punt
    76.8%−6.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:42MD 4th & 15 at MD 20, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:08PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 37, up 17
    Close callPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.3%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:10MD 4th & 10 at MD 37, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00PSU 4th & 2 at MD 26, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    91.2%−0.8
    64% to make
    Punt
    86.7%−5.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:38PSU 4th & 8 at MD 18, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    97.5%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:32PSU 4th & 1 at MD 17, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.3
    80% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:51PSU 4th & 17 at MD 22, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 1 of 2PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 8:41PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:02PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:59MD Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:34PSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:55PSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:27MD Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:14PSU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:25PSU Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:3430% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
30.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 3 yds to the MD 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
30.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 8 yds to the MD 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
30.2%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the MD 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-15
30.2%
TAGOVAILOA, Taulia pass to the right incomplete intended for DYCHES, Corey thrown to the UMD37. PENALTY UMD Personal Foul on JONES, Jeshaun enforced 15 yards from the UMD37 to the UMD22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 24
OWN 22
+12
30.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Preston Howard for 12 yds to the MD 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+11
30.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 11 yds to the MD 45Similar
Q1 12:26
4TH & 1
OWN 45
-1
31.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 44 yds · 3:4569% → 70%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
31.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 1 yd to the MD 43Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+6
31.1%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the MD 37Similar
Q1 12:26
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+7
31.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 7 yds to the MD 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
31.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the MD 29Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+13
31.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 13 yds to the MD 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
31.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 1 yd to the MD 15Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+9
31.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 9 yds to the MD 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
30.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Dante Cephas for 6 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3FUMBLE
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:2931% → 32%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
30.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 2 yds to the MD 27Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+30
30.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 30 yds to the PSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
31.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Shaleak Knotts for 5 yds to the PSU 38Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+6
31.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 6 yds to the PSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
32.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 9 yds Tai Felton fumbled, recovered by PSU Zane Durant [NHSG] TAGOVAILOA, Taulia pass to the left complete for 9 yards to FELTON, Tai caught at the PSU33, FELTON, Tai fumbled at PSU23 forced by ISAAC, Adisa, recovered by PSU DURANT, Zane at the PSU23, returned 14 yards to the PSU37 (PURCELL, Mike;ISAAC, Adisa), clock 07:12.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:1669% → 69%
Q1 7:12
2ND & 19
OWN 28
0
30.8%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 19
OWN 28
0
31.0%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
30.4%
ALLAR, Drew pass short to the right complete for 5 yards to JOHNSON, Theo caught at the PSU42 and advanced to the PSU42 (BRADE, Beau). PENALTY PSU Holding on WALLACE, Caedan enforced 10 yards from the PSU37 to the PSU27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+1
30.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Theo Johnson for 1 yd to the PSU 28Similar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 19
OWN 28
0
31.4%
Riley Thompson punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5631% → 31%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
31.2%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the MD 31Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+9
31.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 9 yds to the MD 40Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 1
OWN 40
-3
31.6%
Antwain Littleton II run for a loss of 3 yards to the MD 37Similar
Q1 4:00
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
31.1%
Colton Spangler punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 3:5869% → 74%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
31.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 7 yds to the PSU 28Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+7
30.5%
Drew Allar run for 7 yds to the PSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
30.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the PSU 38Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+38
30.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 38 yds to the MD 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+18
29.9%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 18 yds to the MD 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
29.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the MD 3Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
29.9%
Beau Pribula run for 1 yd to the MD 2Similar
Q1 0:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
25.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Theo Johnson for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 7:0127% → 34%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
26.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Abdul Carter for a loss of 5 yards to the MD 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+12
26.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 12 yds to the MD 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
27.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 5 yds to the MD 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-8
27.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Hakeem Beamon for a loss of 8 yards to the MD 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 29
+28
26.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 28 yds to the PSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
27.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 5 yds to the PSU 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 38
-4
27.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for a loss of 4 yards to the PSU 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 42
-12
27.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Johnny Dixon for a loss of 12 yards to the MD 46Similar
Q2 10:09
4TH & 21
OWN 46
+15
24.6%
SPANGLER, Colton punt 54 yards to the PSU0, Touchback, clock 10:09. PENALTY PSU Roughing the Kicker on CLIFFORD, Liam enforced 15 yards from the UMD46 to the PSU39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
26.0%
Roman Hemby run for no gain to the PSU 39Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+1
26.0%
Roman Hemby run for 1 yd to the PSU 38Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+17
25.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 17 yds to the PSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
26.3%
Penn State Penalty, illegal substitution (Kalen King) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
33.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 7 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:2570% → 80%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
29.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the PSU 28Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
29.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 7 yds to the PSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
29.3%
KeAndre Lambert-Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
29.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 6 yds to the PSU 41Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+21
28.7%
Drew Allar run for 21 yds to the MD 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
28.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the MD 36Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+14
28.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 14 yds to the MD 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
27.9%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
28.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the MD 20Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+14
28.4%
Drew Allar pass complete to Dante Cephas for 14 yds to the MD 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
25.1%
Beau Pribula run for a loss of 2 yards to the MD 8Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
19.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 8 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9PUNT
12 plays · 27 yds · 2:1421% → 19%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
20.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 1 yd to the MD 26Similar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
20.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 11 yds to the MD 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
21.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Preston Howard for 4 yds to the MD 41Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
21.5%
Maryland Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Taulia Tagovailoa) to the MD 29Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 18
OWN 29
+20
20.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 20 yds to the MD 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
22.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
19.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 3 yds to the PSU 48Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
19.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
18.9%
Colton Spangler punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Daequan Hardy at the PSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
18.3%
[NHSG] Kneel down by ALLAR, Drew at PSU10 (team loss of 5), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11FG
12 plays · 70 yds · 5:3080% → 86%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
19.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 5 yds to the PSU 22Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+6
19.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the PSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
19.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Theo Johnson for 12 yds to the PSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
18.8%
ALLAR, Drew pass deep to the left incomplete intended for LAMBERT-SMITH, KeAndre thrown to the UMD22. PENALTY UMD Roughing the Passer on JOHNSON, Taizse enforced 15 yards from the PSU40 to the UMD45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
18.5%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the MD 39Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
18.4%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+3
18.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the MD 36Similar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+16
19.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Khalil Dinkins for 16 yds to the MD 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
18.2%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
18.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Dante Cephas for no gain to the MD 20Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+7
18.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 7 yds to the MD 13Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+30
13.9%
Alex Felkins 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:4415% → 14%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
14.8%
Roman Hemby run for a loss of 2 yards to the MD 23Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+6
14.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 6 yds to the MD 29Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-9
14.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Adisa Isaac for a loss of 9 yards to the MD 20Similar
Q3 7:42
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
13.8%
Colton Spangler punt for 51 yds, downed at the PSU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3487% → 88%
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
13.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the PSU 32Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+5
13.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Omari Evans for 5 yds to the PSU 37Similar
Q3 7:42
3RD & 2
OWN 37
0
12.9%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:08
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
12.4%
Riley Thompson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tarheeb Still at the MD 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:5814% → 13%
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
13.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+20
13.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 20 yds to the MD 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
14.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
13.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
13.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:10
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
13.2%
Colton Spangler punt for 51 yds, downed at the PSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15TD
13 plays · 88 yds · 6:1588% → 98%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+19
11.8%
Kaytron Allen run for 19 yds to the PSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
11.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 1 yd to the PSU 32Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+10
11.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Dante Cephas for 10 yds to the PSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
11.0%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+8
11.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Dante Cephas for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 2
50
+4
11.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 4 yds to the MD 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
10.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to Theo Johnson for 4 yds to the MD 42Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+8
10.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 8 yds to the MD 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
7.1%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the MD 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 28
0
6.9%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+2
7.1%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the MD 26Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+11
8.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 11 yds to the MD 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
2.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Dante Cephas for 15 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:283% → 13%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
2.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+3
2.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Colby McDonald for 3 yds to the MD 28Similar
Q4 12:58
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+11
2.5%
TAGOVAILOA, Taulia pass to the left incomplete intended for HOWARD, Preston thrown to the UMD43, clock 12:58. PENALTY PSU Pass Interference on DIXON, Johnny enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the UMD39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
2.7%
Penn State Penalty, Roughing the Passer on DENNIS-SUTTON, Dani enforced (Dani Dennis-Sutton) to the PSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
2.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 13 yds to the PSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+30
3.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 30 yds to the PSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
12.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 1 yd for a TD (A. Littleton II Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 26 yds · 2:0394% → 99%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+20
6.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 20 yds to the MD 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
5.9%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+9
5.9%
Drew Allar run for 9 yds to the MD 12Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+2
6.0%
Drew Allar run for 2 yds to the MD 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
1.5%
Kaytron Allen run for 10 yds for a TD Penn State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Theo Johnson) to the MD 0 (Alex Felkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
50
0
2.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2699% → 100%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
1.5%
Beau Pribula run for 4 yds to the MD 16Similar
Q4 9:04
2ND & 6
OPP 16
-2
1.5%
Nicholas Singleton run for a loss of 2 yards to the MD 18Similar
Q4 9:04
3RD & 8
OPP 18
0
1.5%
Beau Pribula pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+35
0.5%
Alex Felkins 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20FUMBLE
1 play · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
0.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21FG
8 plays · 4 yds · 4:41100% → 100%
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
0.4%
Beau Pribula pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
0.4%
Beau Pribula run for 5 yds to the MD 21Similar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+4
0.4%
Beau Pribula run for 4 yds to the MD 17Similar
Q4 7:32
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+2
0.5%
Beau Pribula run for 2 yds to the MD 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
0.4%
Tank Smith run for 1 yd to the MD 14Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 9
OPP 14
-13
0.4%
Beau Pribula sacked by Quashon Fuller for a loss of 13 yards to the MD 27Similar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 22
OPP 27
+5
0.4%
Beau Pribula run for 5 yds to the MD 22Similar
Q4 2:51
4TH & 17
OPP 22
+39
0.2%
Alex Felkins 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22INT
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:390% → 0%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
0.1%
Colby McDonald run for a loss of 3 yards to the MD 22Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
0.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:47100% → 100%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
0.1%
Beau Pribula pass complete to Trey Potts for 6 yds to the MD 6Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 4
OPP 6
0
0.1%
Beau Pribula pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
0.1%
Beau Pribula run for 6 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 1 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
0.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for no gain to the MD 23Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-3
0.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the MD 20Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 20
+4
0.1%
Billy Edwards Jr. run for 4 yds to the MD 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:27
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 1 yd for a TD (A. Littleton II Run For Two-point Conversion)
+9.4
TD · Q2 7:59
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 7 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
+7.3
TD · Q4 13:55
Drew Allar pass complete to Dante Cephas for 15 yds for a TD (Alex Felkins KICK)
-5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com