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Louisiana Tech 30 at Liberty 56

LIB
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · Williams Stadium (VA)
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Win probability · LIB
modelLIB aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playLIB scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-1.2LIB 81.6%Jacob Barnes 26 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 0 · Q1 11:21
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:21 · Jacob Barnes 26 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 11Pregame prior+31.1Home team on offense−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:27: Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 24 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +5.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: Lead backed by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 6:41: Aaron Bedgood run for 5 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +6.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:21: Kaidon Salter pass complete to Noah Frith for 55 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +8.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:01: Keith Willis Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (K. Willis Jr. Run For Two-point Conversion) — LT win probability +5.2 pts (now 11%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:24: Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — LT win probability +4.3 pts (now 8%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LIB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1LT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:21LT 4th & 8 at LIB 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.0%
    89% to make
    Punt
    16.5%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:32LT 4th & 12 at LT 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:59LT 4th & 8 at LT 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:38LT 4th & 18 at LIB 41, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    15.6%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  5. Q4 8:14LIB 4th & 7 at LIB 35, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
  6. Q4 5:42LT 4th & 1 at LT 48, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.3%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q4 0:51LT 4th & 5 at LIB 48, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LIB made the numbers' call on 8 of 8LT made the numbers' call on 1 of 4
  1. Q1 10:07LIB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:27LIB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:41LIB Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:51LT Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:06LIB Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:21LIB Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:01LT Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:30LIB Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:24LT Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    4.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 12:49LIB Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 10:48LT Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 2:22LIB Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LTDrive 1FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:3417% → 18%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
82.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+15
82.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 15 yds to the LIB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
82.8%
Hank Bachmeier run for 7 yds to the LIB 35Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
82.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+7
82.8%
Tyre Shelton run for 7 yds to the LIB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
82.8%
Tyre Shelton run for 2 yds to the LIB 26Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+15
82.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 15 yds to the LIB 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
82.8%
Tyre Shelton run for 2 yds to the LIB 9Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
82.8%
Hank Bachmeier run for no gain to the LIB 9Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
82.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+26
81.6%
Jacob Barnes 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 1:1482% → 82%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+47
81.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 47 yds to the LT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
81.9%
Quinton Cooley run for 12 yds to the LT 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
82.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 16 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:2818% → 18%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+10
82.0%
BACHMEIER, Hank pass up the middle incomplete intended for ALLEN, Cyrus thrown to the LAT25. PENALTY LIB Pass Interference on SINGLETON, Kobe enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the LAT21 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
82.0%
Tyre Shelton run for no gain to the LT 21Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-2
82.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tyre Shelton for a loss of 2 yards to the LT 19Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 12
OWN 19
0
82.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:32
4TH & 12
OWN 19
0
82.1%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · 19 yds · 1:0881% → 82%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
81.4%
Aaron Bedgood run for 6 yds to the LIB 44Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+16
81.7%
Quinton Cooley run for 16 yds to the LT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-3
81.7%
Quinton Cooley run for a loss of 3 yards to the LT 43 Quinton Cooley fumbled, recovered by LT Zion Nason [NHSG] COOLEY, Quinton rush up the middle for a loss of 3 yards, COOLEY, Quinton fumbled at LAT43 , recovered by LAT NASON, Zion at the LAT43, returned 0 yards to the LAT43, End of Play, clock 07:24.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2519% → 19%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
80.9%
Smoke Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 42Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+3
81.1%
Tyre Shelton run for 3 yds to the LT 45Similar
Q1 7:24
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
81.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:59
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
81.1%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:3281% → 87%
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
80.9%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
80.8%
Billy Lucas run for 3 yds to the LIB 23Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+10
80.6%
SALTER, Kaidon pass deep to the left incomplete intended for SIBLEY, Treon thrown to the LAT43. PENALTY LAT Holding on HEARD, Myles enforced 10 yards from the LIB23 to the LIB33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
81.0%
Kaidon Salter run for 5 yds to the LIB 38Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+7
81.3%
Aaron Bedgood run for 7 yds to the LIB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
81.4%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+15
81.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Smoot for 15 yds to the LT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
81.5%
Billy Lucas run for 9 yds to the LT 31Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+3
81.5%
Billy Lucas run for 3 yds to the LT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
81.6%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+4
81.6%
Billy Lucas run for 4 yds to the LT 24Similar
Q1 1:27
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+24
86.6%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 24 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 7PUNT
13 plays · 37 yds · 3:4217% → 15%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
82.9%
Hank Bachmeier run for 10 yds to the LT 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+25
82.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 25 yds to the LIB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
82.1%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 2 yds to the LIB 41Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
82.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:34
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+8
83.3%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 8 yds to the LIB 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
82.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:34
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
82.9%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 6 yds to the LIB 27Similar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+1
83.6%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 1 yd to the LIB 26Similar
Q2 13:04
4TH & 3
OPP 26
-15
84.4%
BACHMEIER, Hank pass short to the left complete for 9 yards to HARRIS, Smoke caught at the LIB25 and advanced to the LIB17 (HODGE, Preston), out of bounds. PENALTY LAT Pass Interference on MAXWELL, Kyle enforced 15 yards to the LIB41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:38
4TH & 18
OPP 41
0
85.0%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Brylan Green at the LIB 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8TD
11 plays · 92 yds · 5:5786% → 93%
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
85.7%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the LIB 11Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+3
85.8%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the LIB 14Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+10
85.6%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Noah Frith for 10 yds to the LIB 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
86.2%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the LIB 27Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+31
86.1%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Noah Frith for 31 yds to the LT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
86.9%
Quinton Cooley run for 15 yds to the LT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
86.0%
Quinton Cooley run for 6 yds to the LT 21Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+3
85.7%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the LT 18Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+6
85.4%
Quinton Cooley run for 6 yds to the LT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
85.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 7 yds to the LT 5Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
92.7%
Aaron Bedgood run for 5 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:5010% → 13%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 5 yds to the LT 30Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
89.8%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Jay Hardy for a loss of 5 yards to the LT 25Similar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
90.1%
Liberty Penalty, Roughing the Passer on CARROLL, Grey enforced (15 Yards) to the LIB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
89.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tru Edwards for 9 yds to the LIB 33Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+4
88.7%
Hank Bachmeier run for 4 yds to the LIB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+17
88.6%
Hank Bachmeier run for 17 yds to the LIB 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
88.6%
Charvis Thornton run for 3 yds to the LIB 9Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+6
88.6%
Hank Bachmeier run for 6 yds to the LIB 3Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
87.5%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 1:4589% → 88%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.2%
Billy Lucas run for 2 yds to the LIB 27Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
89.1%
Kaidon Salter run for 5 yds to the LIB 32Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
89.1%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, Offsides (Myles Heard) to the LIB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
89.7%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+30
89.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Elijah Smoot for 30 yds to the LT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
90.1%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+9
89.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 9 yds to the LT 24Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+5
88.9%
Billy Lucas run for 5 yds to the LT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
89.5%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
89.8%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 10
OPP 19
0
88.8%
SALTER, Kaidon pass deep to the left incomplete intended for FRITH, Noah thrown to the LAT0. PENALTY LAT Offsides on RANDLE, Brevin declined LAT Pass Interference on WOODS, Cedric enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the LAT4 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
87.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 4 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3989% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.2%
Kaidon Salter run for 3 yds to the LIB 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
89.2%
Aaron Bedgood run for 6 yds to the LIB 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+13
89.0%
Quinton Cooley run for 13 yds to the LIB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
89.8%
COOLEY, Quinton rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the LAT49 (HALL, Deshon). PENALTY LIB Holding on GRAHAM, Jonathan enforced 10 yards from the LIB47 to the LIB37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+8
89.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 8 yds to the LIB 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 45
0
89.7%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+55
97.6%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Noah Frith for 55 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:205% → 11%
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
95.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 13 yds to the LT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
94.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+13
94.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Solo Lewis for 13 yds to the LIB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
94.6%
Tyre Shelton run for 5 yds to the LIB 44Similar
Q3 12:21
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+7
94.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 7 yds to the LIB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+26
94.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 26 yds to the LIB 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
94.0%
Liberty Penalty, Face mask (2 yards) (Kendy Charles) to the LIB 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
94.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 2 yds to the LIB 2Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
89.1%
Keith Willis Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (K. Willis Jr. Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:3195% → 98%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
94.5%
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the LIB 27Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
94.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 15 yds to the LIB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
94.9%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the LIB 47Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+24
94.8%
Kaidon Salter run for 24 yds to the LT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
97.7%
Quinton Cooley run for 29 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:063% → 8%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+42
96.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 42 yds to the LIB 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
96.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 15 yds to the LIB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
95.9%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, False Start (Bert Hale) to the LIB 23Similar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+1
96.1%
Charvis Thornton run for 1 yd to the LIB 22Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 14
OPP 22
+21
96.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Ryan Rivera for 21 yds to the LIB 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 15TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:3598% → 100%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.9%
Kaidon Salter run for 6 yds to the LIB 31Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
97.9%
Quinton Cooley run for 8 yds to the LIB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
98.0%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+12
98.0%
Quinton Cooley run for 12 yds to the LT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
98.0%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the LT 46Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+2
98.0%
James Jointer Jr. run for 2 yds to the LT 44Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+16
98.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Quinton Cooley for 16 yds to the LT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
98.8%
COOLEY, Quinton rush to the right for a gain of 6 yards to the LAT22 (RANDLE, Brevin), clock 00:00. PENALTY Before the snap, LIB Illegal Motion on DANIELS, CJ enforced 5 yards from the LAT28 to the LAT33. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+7
98.8%
Kaidon Salter run for 7 yds to the LT 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 26
-1
98.8%
Aaron Bedgood run for a loss of 1 yard to the LT 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
98.8%
SALTER, Kaidon pass deep to the left incomplete intended for DANIELS, CJ thrown to the LAT0. PENALTY LAT Pass Interference on ROBERTS, Willie enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards to the LAT13 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
98.8%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the LT 7Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
99.7%
Quinton Cooley run for 7 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16TD
4 plays · 49 yds · 1:532% → 4%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
98.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Jacob Fields for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 11
50
+36
98.2%
Liberty Penalty, Personal Foul (CJ Bazile Jr.) to the LIB 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
98.1%
Jacob Fields run for a loss of 2 yards to the LIB 9Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
96.4%
Tru Edwards 9 Yd pass from Hank Bachmeier (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:32100% → 100%
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
99.5%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the LIB 35Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-10
99.5%
SALTER, Kaidon pass to the left complete for 9 yards to BEDGOOD, Aaron caught at the LIB30 and advanced to the LIB44 (RICHARD, Michael), out of bounds. PENALTY LIB Holding on FRITH, Noah enforced 10 yards from the LIB35 to the LIB25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 17
OWN 25
+2
99.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Quinton Cooley for 2 yds to the LIB 27Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 15
OWN 27
+8
99.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Treon Sibley for 8 yds to the LIB 35Similar
Q4 8:14
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
99.5%
Max Morgan punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:323% → 2%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
97.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tru Edwards for 8 yds to the LT 37Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 2
OWN 37
0
97.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+2
97.4%
Tyre Shelton run for 2 yds to the LT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
97.2%
Tyre Shelton run for 6 yds to the LT 45Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+3
97.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tru Edwards for 3 yds to the LT 48Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
97.4%
Tyre Shelton run for no gain to the LT 48Similar
Q4 5:42
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
98.2%
Keith Willis Jr. run for no gain to the LT 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 19TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 3:20100% → 100%
Q4 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
99.7%
Quinton Cooley run for 6 yds to the LT 42Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+4
99.7%
Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds to the LT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
99.7%
Quinton Cooley run for 18 yds to the LT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
99.7%
James Jointer Jr. run for 13 yds to the LT 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
99.7%
James Jointer Jr. run for 5 yds to the LT 2Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
James Jointer Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:260% → 0%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+20
99.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tru Edwards for 20 yds to the LT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
99.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Jacob Fields for 4 yds to the LIB 49Similar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+1
99.9%
Hank Bachmeier run for 1 yd to the LIB 48Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 5
OPP 48
-8
99.9%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by TJ Bush and Kendy Charles for a loss of 8 yards to the LT 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 21END OF GAME
1 play · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
99.9%
James Jointer Jr. run for 5 yds to the LT 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:21
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Noah Frith for 55 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)
+8
TD · Q2 6:41
Aaron Bedgood run for 5 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)
+6.9
TD · Q3 9:01
Keith Willis Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (K. Willis Jr. Run For Two-point Conversion)
-5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com