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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreWIS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:20 · Atticus Bertrams punt for 37 yds, fair catch by DeQuece Carter at the WIS 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:11: Braedyn Locke pass complete to Bryson Green for 54 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — WIS win probability +9.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:41: Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 7 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — IU win probability +12.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:14: Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 18 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — WIS win probability +15.1 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 10:45: Jaylin Lucas run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line — IU win probability +10.1 pts (now 70%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 4:07: Brendan Sorsby run for 13 yds to the IU 45 for a 1ST down — IU win probability +16.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10WIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 7:41WIS 4th & 3 at IU 42, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call65.3%52% to convertField goal65.0%−0.330% to makePunt65.1%−0.2average punt
- Q1 5:55IU 4th & 1 at WIS 49, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call36.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt36.4%−0.5average punt
- Q1 1:53IU 4th & 8 at WIS 25, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.0% before the snapGo for it40.0%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call40.1%66% to makePunt37.6%−2.5average punt
- Q2 14:21WIS 4th & 13 at WIS 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snapGo for it57.2%−0.920% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.0%average punt
- Q2 12:04IU 4th & 5 at IU 47, up 7Close callPunted · 43.7% before the snapGo for it43.8%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 11:20WIS 4th & 11 at WIS 5, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snapGo for it52.8%−1.323% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.2%average punt
- Q2 8:08IU 4th & 9 at WIS 9, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.9% before the snapGo for it47.8%−0.625% to convertField goalTheir call48.5%89% to makePunt43.8%−4.7average punt
- Q2 7:09WIS 4th & 11 at WIS 24, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snapGo for it45.9%−1.825% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.6%average punt
- Q2 6:01IU 4th & 7 at IU 28, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.0% before the snapGo for it50.3%−1.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.4%average punt
- Q3 4:50IU 4th & 22 at WIS 49, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snapGo for it50.8%−4.68% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.4%average punt
- Q4 13:20WIS 4th & 30 at IU 38, down 3Close callPunted · 37.7% before the snapGo for it35.1%−3.67% to convertField goal38.7%38% to makePuntTheir call38.3%−0.4average punt
- Q4 11:48IU 4th & 2 at IU 12, up 3Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 61.3% before the snapGo for it64.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.0%−1.1average punt
- Q4 9:36IU 4th & 21 at IU 45, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snapGo for it57.2%−9.59% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call66.7%average punt
- Q4 8:09WIS 4th & 2 at WIS 16, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 32.8% before the snapGo for it32.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.5%−2.1average punt
- Q4 7:13IU 4th & 10 at IU 43, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snapGo for it63.9%−4.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.3%average punt
- Q4 4:07WIS 4th & 2 at IU 32, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call34.5%57% to convertField goal33.4%−1.151% to makePunt24.8%−9.7average punt
- Q4 1:10IU 4th & 9 at WIS 32, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.5% before the snapGo for it85.9%−2.032% to convertField goalTheir call87.8%51% to makePunt81.9%−5.9average punt
- Q4 0:00WIS 4th & 17 at WIS 30, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.1%14% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt9.5%−0.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 9:59IU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call33.0%97% to makeGo for two33.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:11WIS Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.1%97% to makeGo for two55.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:41IU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.9%97% to makeGo for two59.7%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 10:14WIS Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.4%97% to makeGo for two46.3%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIUDrive 1TD11 plays · 66 yds · 4:4826% → 30%
Q1 14:16
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+2
25.9%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to DeQuece Carter for 2 yds to the IU 35Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+12
26.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 12 yds to the IU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 7
50
+15
26.9%
(12:48) No Huddle-Shotgun Sorsby,Brendan pass incomplete deep right to Carter,Dequece PENALTY WIS Pass Interference (Brown,Austin) 15 yards from IND50 to WIS35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+5
27.7%
Brendan Sorsby run for 5 yds to the WIS 34 Brendan Sorsby fumbled, recovered by IU Brendan Sorsby (12:01) Shotgun Sorsby,Brendan rush middle for 5 yards loss to the WIS34 fumbled by Sorsby,Brendan at WIS32 recovered by IND Sorsby,Brendan at WIS32 (Turner,Jordan).Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+21
27.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 21 yds to the WIS 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2DOWNS8 plays · 33 yds · 2:1371% → 69%
Q1 9:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
29.8%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Skyler Bell for 4 yds to the WIS 34Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+17
30.1%
Jackson Acker run for 2 yds to the IU 36 for a 1ST down Indiana Penalty, Personal Foul (Lanell Carr Jr.) to the IU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 14
OWN 47
+11
31.1%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 11 yds to the IU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 3MISSED FG12 plays · 33 yds · 5:4332% → 37%
Q1 7:03
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+6
32.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Trey Walker for 6 yds to the WIS 49Similar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
35.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 9 yds to the WIS 28Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+1
36.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 1 yd to the WIS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4PUNT9 plays · 22 yds · 2:3264% → 61%
Q1 1:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
36.3%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Jackson Acker for 7 yds to the WIS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
36.5%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Jackson Acker for 5 yds to the WIS 41Similar
Q1 0:32
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+9
36.1%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to C.J. Williams for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 43
-10
36.4%
Shotgun Yacamelli,Cade rush left for 9 yards gain to the IND34 (Moore,Louis) PENALTY WIS Holding (Nelson,Jack) 10 yards from IND43 to WIS47. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 34 yds · 2:1139% → 41%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
38.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jaylin Lucas for no gain to the IU 13Similar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+26
39.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to DeQuece Carter for 26 yds to the IU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
41.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Andison Coby for 5 yds to the IU 47Similar
Q2 12:04
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
40.5%
James Evans punt for 47 yds , Vinny Anthony II returns for no gain to the WIS 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:3859% → 57%
IUDrive 7FG11 plays · 33 yds · 3:1243% → 46%
Q2 9:12
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+10
47.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jaylin Lucas for 10 yds to the WIS 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5252% → 49%
Q2 7:09
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
51.1%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 51 yds, fair catch by DeQuece Carter at the IU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0847% → 47%
Q2 6:01
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+7
47.1%
James Evans punt for 47 yds , Vinny Anthony II returns for 7 yds to the WIS 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10TD5 plays · 68 yds · 1:4550% → 59%
Q2 5:48
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+12
50.9%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Bryson Green for 12 yds to the WIS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
50.0%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Jackson Acker for no gain to the WIS 44Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+54
41.0%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Bryson Green for 54 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11TD10 plays · 71 yds · 3:2442% → 60%
Q2 2:58
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+14
42.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 14 yds to the IU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+32
44.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 32 yds to the WIS 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
60.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 7 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12END OF HALF9 plays · 37 yds · 0:3442% → 43%
WISDrive 13TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3643% → 55%
Q3 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
58.0%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Bryson Green for 13 yds to the WIS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-10
58.5%
(13:44) No Huddle-Shotgun Locke,Braedyn pass complete short left to Yacamelli,Cade for 9 yards to the IND49 (Sanguinetti,Josh), out of bounds PENALTY WIS Holding (Williams,CJ) 10 yards from WIS42 to WIS32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 16
OWN 32
+8
61.1%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 8 yds to the WIS 40Similar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+15
61.1%
(12:43) Shotgun Locke,Braedyn pass incomplete short left to Bell,Skyler QB hurried by Mangum-Farrar,Jacob PENALTY IND Roughing The Passer (Mangum-Farrar,Jacob) 15 yards from WIS40 to IND45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY. The previous play is under review. The ruling on the field is confirmed.Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+23
60.2%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Riley Nowakowski for 23 yds to the IU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+18
44.8%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 18 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 14PUNT13 plays · 32 yds · 5:1349% → 52%
Q3 9:32
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+12
50.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to E.J. Williams Jr. for 12 yds to the IU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
51.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jaylin Lucas for 3 yds to the IU 37Similar
Q3 7:42
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+8
51.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to for 8 yds to the IU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+15
54.2%
(06:56) No Huddle-Shotgun Sorsby,Brendan pass incomplete deep left to McCulley,Donaven PENALTY WIS Pass Interference (Maitre,Jason) 15 yards from IND48 to WIS37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 7
OPP 34
-15
56.9%
Brendan Sorsby sacked by Austin Brown for a loss of 15 yards to the WIS 49Similar
Q3 4:50
4TH & 22
OPP 49
0
51.6%
James Evans punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Vinny Anthony II at the WIS 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15PUNT16 plays · 44 yds · 6:2148% → 40%
Q4 14:14
3RD & 15
OPP 23
-10
55.8%
Braedyn Locke sacked by Aaron Casey for a loss of 10 yards to the IU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2361% → 60%
WISDrive 17FUMBLE2 plays · 11 yds · 0:2641% → 40%
Q4 11:16
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
59.8%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Cade Yacamelli for 11 yds to the WIS 44 pass complete to for 9 yds Cade Yacamelli fumbled, forced by Aaron Casey, recovered by IU Josh Sanguinetti No Huddle-Shotgun Locke,Braedyn pass complete short middle to Yacamelli,Cade for 11 yards to the WIS44 fumbled by Yacamelli,Cade at WIS42 forced by Casey,Aaron recovered by IND Sanguinetti,Josh at WIS44, End Of Play. The previous play is under review. The ruling on the field has been overturned. The runner was not down prior to losing the ball (OVERTURNED PLAY: (11:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 B.Locke pass complete short middle to #25 C.Yacamelli for 9 yards to the WIS42 (#7 J.Mangum-Farrar; #44 A.Casey)).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 18PUNT4 plays · -11 yds · 1:0970% → 63%
WISDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2138% → 34%
IUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4971% → 65%
Q4 7:13
4TH & 10
OWN 43
+22
65.4%
James Evans punt for 39 yds , Vinny Anthony II returns for 22 yds to the WIS 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21DOWNS6 plays · 28 yds · 3:0142% → 39%
IUDrive 22FG12 plays · 36 yds · 2:5777% → 95%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
81.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 11 yds to the WIS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
86.4%
Brendan Sorsby run for 3 yds to the WIS 47 Brendan Sorsby fumbled, recovered by IU Brendan Sorsby (02:34) Shotgun Sorsby,Brendan rush right for 3 yards loss to the WIS47 fumbled by Sorsby,Brendan at WIS47 recovered by IND Sorsby,Brendan at WIS47, End Of Play.Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 13
OPP 47
+14
84.4%
(02:28) Shotgun Sorsby,Brendan pass incomplete short left to McCulley,Donaven PENALTY WIS Pass Interference (Hallman,Ricardo) 14 yards from WIS47 to WIS33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23FUMBLE8 plays · 16 yds · 1:0310% → 8%
Q4 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.3%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 3 yds to the WIS 28Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
90.6%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Skyler Bell for 9 yds to the WIS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
89.9%
Braedyn Locke sacked by Aaron Casey for a loss of 7 yards to the WIS 30Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 17
OWN 30
+11
92.2%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 11 yds Will Pauling fumbled, recovered by IU Josh Sanguinetti (00:08) No Huddle-Shotgun Locke,Braedyn pass complete short middle to Pauling,Will for 11 yards to the WIS41 fumbled by Pauling,Will at WIS39 forced by Moore,Louis recovered by IND Sanguinetti,Josh at WIS41 Sanguinetti,Josh return 26 yards to the WIS15, out of bounds at WIS15.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:07
Brendan Sorsby run for 13 yds to the IU 45 for a 1ST down
+16.3
TD · Q3 10:14
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 18 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
-15.1
TD · Q2 0:41
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Donaven McCulley for 7 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
+12