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LSU

LSU 28 at Alabama 42

ALA
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadLSU aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreLSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:28 · Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Malik Nabers
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 173Home team on offense+25.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.4Score differential+11.3Garbage-time factor+7.0Pregame prior+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:09: Jayden Daniels run for 9 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +17.2 pts (now 52%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:05: Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 26 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +24.1 pts (now 53%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:14: Josh Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK) — LSU win probability +14.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:30: Roydell Williams run for 16 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +18.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:01: Jalen Milroe run for 11 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +21.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:28ALA 4th & 15 at ALA 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:43LSU 4th & 1 at ALA 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    40.0%−0.8
    30% to make
    Punt
    40.2%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:21LSU 4th & 14 at ALA 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−0.9
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    30.5%−2.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:14ALA 4th & 12 at LSU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−3.4
    average punt
  5. Q3 3:54LSU 4th & 12 at LSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−4.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  6. Q4 11:40LSU 4th & 15 at LSU 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  7. Q4 4:30ALA 4th & 1 at LSU 25, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.9%−0.9
    66% to make
    Punt
    93.6%−3.2
    average punt
  8. Q4 2:28LSU 4th & 7 at ALA 27, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    3.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6LSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:46LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:14ALA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:25ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:09LSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:01ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:05LSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:14LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:30ALA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:01ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:01ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 2:2554% → 54%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
54.2%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the ALA 29Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
54.3%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Jermaine BurtonSimilar
Q1 14:09
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
54.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to CJ Dippre for 11 yds to the ALA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
54.4%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the ALA 44Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
54.6%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Amari NiblackSimilar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-9
54.5%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Harold Perkins Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the ALA 35Similar
Q1 12:28
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
54.4%
James Burnip punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Gregory Clayton Jr. at the LSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 2:2945% → 48%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
54.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 7 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+5
54.5%
Logan Diggs run for 5 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
54.6%
(11:31) No Huddle-Shotgun Daniels,Jayden pass incomplete short right to Nabers,Malik broken up by Moore,Malachi PENALTY ALA Personal Foul (Turner,Dallas) 15 yards from LSU27 to LSU42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
54.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Josh Williams for 6 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+6
54.3%
Josh Williams run for 6 yds to the ALA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
52.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 46 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 2:1253% → 56%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
52.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kendrick Law for 16 yds to the ALA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
52.6%
Jam Miller run for 4 yds to the ALA 44Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+11
52.7%
Jalen Milroe run for 11 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+22
52.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 22 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
55.9%
Jalen Milroe run for 23 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 4DOWNS
10 plays · 33 yds · 2:2645% → 45%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.6%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Kyren LacySimilar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+24
54.7%
Jayden Daniels run for 24 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
53.9%
Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the ALA 48Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-5
53.8%
(05:56) PENALTY LSU False Start (Lacy,Kyren) 5 yards from ALA48 to LSU47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 12
OWN 47
0
54.8%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 12
OWN 47
+11
55.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 11 yds to the ALA 42Similar
Q1 4:43
4TH & 1
OPP 42
0
54.6%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 4:0956% → 62%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
56.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 7 yds to the ALA 49Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 3
OWN 49
0
56.5%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Amari NiblackSimilar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+6
56.2%
Jase McClellan run for 6 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST down LSU Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Maason Smith) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
56.8%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the LSU 43Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+9
56.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 9 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+21
57.5%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 21 yds to the LSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
57.7%
Jalen Milroe run for 6 yds to the LSU 7Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+3
57.9%
Jam Miller run for 3 yds to the LSU 4Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+4
62.2%
Jalen Milroe run for 4 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 6MISSED FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 3:3938% → 36%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
62.0%
Logan Diggs run for 5 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+28
61.9%
Jayden Daniels run for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
50
+3
60.5%
Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the ALA 47Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+22
61.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 22 yds to the ALA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
59.8%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brian Thomas Jr.Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
60.2%
Logan Diggs run for no gain to the ALA 25Similar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-4
61.4%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Justin Eboigbe for a loss of 4 yards to the ALA 29Similar
Q2 11:21
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+46
64.4%
Damian Ramos 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7MISSED FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:5665% → 67%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-3
65.0%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Paris Shand for a loss of 3 yards to the ALA 26Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 13
OWN 26
+5
65.1%
Jalen Milroe run for 5 yds to the ALA 31Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+42
64.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jase McClellan for 42 yds to the LSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
67.9%
(09:04) PENALTY ALA False Start (Dippre,CJ) 5 yards from LSU27 to LSU32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 15
OPP 32
0
67.6%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Kobe PrenticeSimilar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+8
66.8%
Jalen Milroe run for 8 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+5
68.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Roydell Williams for 5 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 7:14
4TH & 12
OPP 29
+47
66.6%
Will Reichard 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 8TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 3:5333% → 52%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
66.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 11 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
66.5%
Jayden Daniels run for 5 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+8
65.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 8 yds to the ALA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+23
65.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 23 yds to the ALA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
63.8%
PENALTY ALA Offside (Keenan III,Tim) 5 yards from ALA24 to ALA19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 5
OPP 19
0
64.0%
John Emery Jr. run for no gain to the ALA 19Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
64.2%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to John Emery Jr.Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+10
65.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 10 yds to the ALA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
48.3%
Jayden Daniels run for 9 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 1:5359% → 74%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
58.6%
Jam Miller run for no gain to the ALA 26Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+7
58.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 7 yds to the ALA 33Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+35
57.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jam Miller for 35 yds to the LSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
62.7%
Jalen Milroe run for 4 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
62.8%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Kobe PrenticeSimilar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 6
OPP 28
-5
60.5%
PENALTY ALA False Start (Booker,Tyler) 5 yards from LSU28 to LSU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+11
59.7%
Jalen Milroe run for 11 yds to the LSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
61.9%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Isaiah BondSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+1
61.8%
Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd to the LSU 21Similar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+21
74.3%
Jalen Milroe run for 21 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 10TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 0:4228% → 53%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
72.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kaleb Jackson for 1 yd to the LSU 26Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
72.4%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+40
73.1%
Jayden Daniels run for 40 yds to the ALA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
67.4%
PENALTY LSU Illegal Snap (Turner III,Charles) 5 yards from ALA34 to ALA39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 15
OPP 39
-15
71.6%
LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the ALA 26Similar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 2
OPP 26
+26
47.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 26 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+20
59.7%
Jalen Milroe run for 20 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST down Alabama Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3647% → 66%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
53.1%
Logan Diggs run for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
52.4%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Brian Thomas Jr.Similar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+17
53.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 17 yds to the LSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
50.3%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for no gain to the LSU 46Similar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+11
51.0%
Jayden Daniels run for 11 yds to the ALA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+30
49.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Malik Nabers for 30 yds to the ALA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
48.5%
Josh Williams run for 4 yds to the ALA 9Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+7
48.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 7 yds to the ALA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
34.3%
Josh Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 3:2839% → 62%
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
38.6%
Jalen Milroe run for 5 yds to the ALA 35Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+4
39.5%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the ALA 39Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+10
40.1%
Jam Miller run for 10 yds to the ALA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
41.1%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Jermaine BurtonSimilar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
40.4%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Isaiah BondSimilar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+18
38.2%
Jalen Milroe run for 18 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
43.2%
Roydell Williams run for 8 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+9
43.0%
Roydell Williams run for 9 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
61.8%
Roydell Williams run for 16 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 3:2047% → 46%
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
52.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 8 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
50.2%
Logan Diggs run for 1 yd to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 6:11
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
51.1%
Logan Diggs run for 3 yds to the LSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
50.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 3 yds to the LSU 40Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-10
49.6%
(05:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Daniels,Jayden rush right for 25 yards gain to the ALA35 (Moore,Malachi) PENALTY LSU Holding (Campbell,Will) 10 yards from LSU40 to LSU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 17
OWN 30
0
52.5%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Mason TaylorSimilar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 17
OWN 30
+5
54.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Mason Taylor for 5 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q3 3:54
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
54.5%
Jay Bramblett punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Kool-Aid McKinstry at the ALA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:4154% → 82%
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
54.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 12 yds to the ALA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
57.5%
Roydell Williams run for 16 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
58.9%
Jalen Milroe run for 6 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+18
60.1%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 18 yds to the LSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
60.1%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 5 yds to the LSU 11Similar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+11
81.7%
Jalen Milroe run for 11 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1427% → 26%
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
73.2%
Josh Williams run for 7 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
71.4%
PENALTY LSU Illegal Snap (Turner III,Charles) 5 yards from LSU32 to LSU27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:37
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
73.7%
Jayden Daniels pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:0583% → 97%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
83.3%
PENALTY ALA False Start (McLaughlin,Seth) 5 yards from LSU25 to LSU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+1
82.8%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the LSU 29Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 14
OPP 29
+9
82.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kendrick Law for 9 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+10
82.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Milroe,Jalen rush right for 4 yards loss to the LSU24 (Perkins Jr.,Harold) PENALTY LSU Horse Collar Tackle (Perkins Jr.,Harold) 10 yards from LSU20 to LSU10, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
96.8%
Jase McClellan run for 10 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 10 yds · 1:1411% → 6%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
89.5%
(13:01) No Huddle-Shotgun Daniels,Jayden pass incomplete deep left to Nabers,Malik PENALTY ALA Roughing The Passer (Turner,Dallas) 15 yards from LSU25 to LSU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
90.3%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Brian Thomas Jr. for 5 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-5
90.3%
(12:21) PENALTY LSU False Start (Jones Jr.,Emery) 5 yards from LSU45 to LSU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:54
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
94.0%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Logan DiggsSimilar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
94.1%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q4 11:46
4TH & 10
OWN 40
-5
94.4%
PENALTY LSU Illegal Snap (Turner III,Charles) 5 yards from LSU40 to LSU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:40
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
94.5%
Jay Bramblett punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kool-Aid McKinstry at the ALA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19MISSED FG
15 plays · 50 yds · 7:0498% → 99%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.8%
Roydell Williams run for 4 yds to the ALA 29Similar
Q4 10:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
98.2%
Jalen Milroe run for 3 yds to the ALA 32Similar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
98.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 10 yds to the ALA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
98.6%
Jalen Milroe run for 2 yds to the ALA 44Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+3
98.6%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the ALA 47Similar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+8
98.7%
Jalen Milroe run for 8 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
98.8%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the LSU 41Similar
Q4 7:08
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+7
98.9%
Jase McClellan run for 7 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
99.0%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+3
99.0%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+3
99.1%
Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q4 4:30
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+43
99.1%
Will Reichard 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 48 yds · 1:532% → 2%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
97.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Malik Nabers for 27 yds to the ALA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
97.6%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Malik Nabers for 5 yds to the ALA 43Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+13
97.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 13 yds to the ALA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
97.4%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
97.5%
Garrett Nussmeier pass complete to Malik Nabers for 3 yds to the ALA 27Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 7
OPP 27
0
97.7%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Mason TaylorSimilar
Q4 2:28
4TH & 7
OPP 27
0
97.8%
Garrett Nussmeier pass incomplete to Malik NabersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21END OF GAME
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:19100% → 100%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
99.5%
Jase McClellan run for 8 yds to the ALA 35Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+4
99.5%
Jase McClellan run for 4 yds to the ALA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
99.5%
Kneel down by Alabama at ALA37 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 37
-1
99.5%
Kneel down by Alabama at ALA36 for loss of 1 yard.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:05
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Kyren Lacy for 26 yds for a TD (Damian Ramos KICK)
-24.1
TD · Q3 1:01
Jalen Milroe run for 11 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
+21.7
TD · Q3 7:30
Roydell Williams run for 16 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
+18.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com