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ARMY

Army 23 at Air Force 3

AF
2023 · Week 10 · Nov 4, 2023 · Sports Authority Field at Mile High
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadARMY aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreARMY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:03 · Cooper Allan punt for 38 yds , Dane Kinamon returns for no gain to the AFA 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Home team on offense−39.4Pregame prior+11.8Score differential−20.5Garbage-time factor−8.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:53: Bryson Daily run for 5 yds for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK) — ARMY win probability +10.3 pts (now 27%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 13:14: Quinn Maretzki 40 yd FG GOOD — ARMY win probability +7.9 pts (now 38%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Quinn Maretzki 38 yd FG GOOD — ARMY win probability +11.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ARMY has the ball).
  4. PUNT · Q3 11:16: Carson Bay punt for 37 yds , Tyrell Robinson returns for 4 yds to the ARMY 37 — ARMY win probability +10.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. MISSED FG · Q3 2:37: Matthew Dapore 32 yd FG MISSED — ARMY win probability +16.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ARMY made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:05AF 4th & 1 at AF 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:42ARMY 4th & 4 at AF 28, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.6%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    14.1%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:05ARMY 4th & 2 at AF 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    15.7%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    15.0%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:14ARMY 4th & 5 at AF 23, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−5.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:02AF 4th & 2 at ARMY 23, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    60.0%−0.8
    70% to make
    Punt
    56.2%−4.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:39ARMY 4th & 9 at ARMY 31, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−2.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:31AF 4th & 11 at ARMY 13, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−3.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:59ARMY 4th & 6 at ARMY 40, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:16AF 4th & 16 at AF 30, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−2.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:22ARMY 4th & 24 at ARMY 36, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−6.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:37AF 4th & 15 at ARMY 15, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−4.0
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−11.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:03ARMY 4th & 8 at ARMY 22, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−1.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:50AF 4th & 16 at AF 34, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−3.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:03ARMY 4th & 1 at AF 35, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.3%−1.9
    45% to make
    Punt
    93.9%−2.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:45ARMY 4th & 3 at AF 44, up 20
    Close callPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    96.6%−1.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:33ARMY 4th & 6 at ARMY 27, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARMY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:06ARMY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:53ARMY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARMYDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5413% → 14%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.4%
Kanye Udoh run for 6 yds to the ARMY 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
87.4%
Bryson Daily run for 5 yds to the ARMY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
87.4%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 2 yds to the ARMY 38Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+62
86.4%
Bryson Daily run for 62 yds for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0187% → 86%
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
86.5%
Zac Larrier run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
86.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
86.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
85.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for no gain to the AFA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 3FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2315% → 15%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
85.3%
Kanye Udoh run for no gain to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
85.3%
Bryson Daily pass incomplete to Hayden ReedSimilar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+6
85.3%
Bryson Daily run for 6 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 9:42
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+45
84.6%
Quinn Maretzki 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4FUMBLE
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:3785% → 84%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
84.7%
Zac Larrier run for 13 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
84.8%
Zac Larrier pass incomplete to Jared RoznosSimilar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
84.8%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 7 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+2
83.8%
Zac Larrier run for 2 yds to the AFA 43 Zac Larrier fumbled, recovered by ARMY Leo Lowin Larrier,Zac rush middle for 2 yards loss to the AF 43 fumbled by Larrier,Zac at AF 41 recovered by ARMY Lowin,Leo at AF 43, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 5TD
11 plays · 43 yds · 6:1217% → 27%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
83.3%
Bryson Daily run for 7 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+2
83.3%
Bryson Daily run for 2 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+3
83.3%
Bryson Daily run for 3 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
83.3%
Bryson Daily run for 9 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+2
83.2%
Kanye Udoh run for 2 yds to the AFA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
83.2%
Kanye Udoh run for no gain to the AFA 20Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+1
83.3%
Bryson Daily run for 1 yd to the AFA 19Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+7
83.4%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Casey Reynolds for 7 yds to the AFA 12Similar
Q1 8:05
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+3
83.5%
Bryson Daily run for 3 yds to the AFA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
83.2%
Bryson Daily run for 4 yds to the AFA 5Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
73.0%
Bryson Daily run for 5 yds for a TD (Quinn Maretzki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:3874% → 74%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
74.1%
Zac Larrier run for 15 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
73.9%
Emmanuel Michel run for 7 yds to the AFA 47 Emmanuel Michel fumbled, recovered by ARMY Jimmy Ciarlo Michel,Emmanuel rush middle for 7 yards gain to the AF 47 fumbled by Michel,Emmanuel at AF 41 forced by Gerena,Brett recovered by ARMY Ciarlo,Jimmy at AF 47, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 7FG
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:0128% → 38%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
71.7%
Bryson Daily run for 2 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+2
69.8%
Bryson Daily run for 2 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+15
70.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Daily,Bryson pass incomplete short right to Short,Noah PENALTY AF Personal Foul (Zdroik,Payton) 15 yards from AF 43 to AF 28, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
69.8%
PENALTY ARMY False Start (Filipowicz,Jackson) 5 yards from AF 28 to AF 33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+10
69.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Daily,Bryson rush left for 6 yards gain to the AF 27, out of bounds at AF 27 PENALTY ARMY Holding (Buckingham,Shayne) 10 yards from AF 33 to AF 43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 25
OPP 43
+11
69.9%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Tobi Olawole for 11 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 32
0
69.9%
Bryson Daily pass incomplete to Ay'Jaun MarshallSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 32
+9
70.1%
Kanye Udoh run for 9 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q2 13:14
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+40
62.2%
Quinn Maretzki 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8DOWNS
12 plays · 45 yds · 5:1266% → 60%
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
66.2%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 12 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
66.8%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 3 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
67.0%
Zac Larrier pass incomplete to Cade HarrisSimilar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+8
66.8%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Brandon Engel for 8 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
67.4%
Owen Burk run for 4 yds to the ARMY 48Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+2
67.5%
Zac Larrier run for 2 yds to the ARMY 46Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+15
67.4%
Larrier,Zac pass incomplete deep middle to Roznos,Jared PENALTY ARMY Pass Interference (Nicolas-Paul,Bo) 15 yards from ARMY46 to ARMY31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
67.9%
Owen Burk run for 2 yds to the ARMY 29Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+3
68.0%
Zac Larrier run for 3 yds to the ARMY 26Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+3
67.7%
Zac Larrier run for 3 yds to the ARMY 23Similar
Q2 8:02
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+7
60.0%
Zac Larrier run for 7 yds to the ARMY 30 Zac Larrier fumbled, recovered by AFA Dane Kinamon Larrier,Zac rush right for 7 yards loss to the ARMY30 fumbled by Larrier,Zac at ARMY28 forced by Powell,Jackson recovered by AF Kinamon,Dane at ARMY30, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:2349% → 53%
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
51.3%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Noah Short for 1 yd to the ARMY 29Similar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+6
51.5%
Bryson Daily run for 6 yds to the ARMY 35Similar
Q2 8:02
3RD & 5
OWN 35
-10
52.0%
Army Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ARMY 28Similar
Q2 8:02
3RD & 12
OWN 25
0
52.4%
Army Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 5:39
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
47.1%
Cooper Allan punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 3:0853% → 53%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-15
52.9%
Larrier,Zac pass incomplete deep middle to Roznos,Jared PENALTY ARMY Pass Interference (Jones,Cameron) 15 yards from AF 28 to AF 43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
54.5%
Emmanuel Michel run for 13 yds to the ARMY 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
55.1%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Jared Roznos for 19 yds to the ARMY 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
55.7%
Zac Larrier run for 1 yd to the ARMY 26Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
55.3%
Zac Larrier pass incomplete to Caleb RillosSimilar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+14
54.6%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Brandon Engel for 14 yds to the ARMY 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
55.7%
Zac Larrier run for 1 yd to the ARMY 13Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 11
OPP 13
0
55.5%
Zac Larrier pass incomplete to Brandon EngelSimilar
Q2 5:39
3RD & 11
OPP 13
0
54.8%
Zac Larrier pass incomplete to Jared RoznosSimilar
Q2 2:31
4TH & 11
OPP 13
+30
53.4%
Matthew Dapore 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 1:3252% → 58%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
47.8%
Bryson Daily run for 7 yds to the ARMY 32Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
47.4%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 4 yds to the ARMY 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
47.0%
Kanye Udoh run for 4 yds to the ARMY 40Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
46.5%
Bryson Daily run for 2 yds to the ARMY 38Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+2
41.6%
Bryson Daily run for 2 yds to the ARMY 40Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+7
42.1%
Cooper Allan punt for 35 yds , Dane Kinamon returns for 7 yds to the AFA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:4048% → 47%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
48.4%
Zac Larrier pass complete to John Lee Eldridge III for 3 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
46.9%
Zac Larrier pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 13FG
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:1960% → 75%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
39.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Daily,Bryson pass incomplete deep left to Short,Noah, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY AF Pass Interference (Taylor,Trey) 15 yards from AF 25 to AF 10, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
39.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Daily,Bryson sacked for loss of 3 yards to the AF 13 (Richter,Bo) PENALTY ARMY Holding (Finucane,Connor) 10 yards from AF 10 to AF 20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
+1
38.2%
Bryson Daily run for 1 yd to the AFA 19Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
-2
36.2%
B. Daily takes a kneeSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 21
+38
25.1%
Quinn Maretzki 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 5 yds · 3:4441% → 30%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
40.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
40.7%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 5 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
41.6%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 3 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
41.7%
Eldridge III,John Lee rush right for 3 yards gain to the AF 39 (DiDomenico,Max), out of bounds PENALTY AF Illegal Block in Back (Wilson,Wyatt) 10 yards from AF 36 to AF 26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+9
40.6%
Emmanuel Michel run for 9 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
40.5%
Zac Larrier run for no gain to the AFA 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-5
40.3%
PENALTY AF False Start (Engel,Brandon) 5 yards from AF 35 to AF 30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 30
0
40.0%
Zac Larrier pass incomplete to Dane KinamonSimilar
Q3 11:16
4TH & 16
OWN 30
+4
29.6%
Carson Bay punt for 37 yds , Tyrell Robinson returns for 4 yds to the ARMY 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · -1 yds · 3:5477% → 83%
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
22.9%
Bryson Daily run for 2 yds to the ARMY 39Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+7
22.6%
Bryson Daily run for 7 yds to the ARMY 46Similar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+4
22.7%
Bryson Daily run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
50
+15
22.0%
Shotgun Daily,Bryson rush left for 3 yards gain to the AF 47 (Richter,Bo) PENALTY ARMY Personal Foul (Finucane,Connor) 15 yards from ARMY50 to ARMY35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 25
OWN 35
0
23.9%
Bryson Daily pass incomplete to Ay'Jaun MarshallSimilar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 25
OWN 35
+2
24.0%
Bryson Daily run for 2 yds to the ARMY 33Similar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 27
OWN 33
+3
24.6%
Jakobi Buchanan run for 3 yds to the ARMY 36Similar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 24
OWN 36
+5
16.7%
Cooper Allan punt for 39 yds , Dane Kinamon returns for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16MISSED FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:4524% → 12%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
23.6%
John Lee Eldridge III run for 10 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
24.7%
Zac Larrier pass incomplete to Brandon EngelSimilar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
23.9%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+27
24.2%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Wyatt Wilson for 27 yds to the ARMY 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
26.5%
Zac Larrier run for 4 yds to the ARMY 28Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+16
26.8%
Aiden Calvert run for 3 yds to the ARMY 25 for a 1ST down Army Penalty, Personal Foul (Bo Nicolas-Paul) to the ARMY 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
26.8%
PENALTY ARMY Personal Foul (Nicolas-Paul,Bo) 6 yards from ARMY12 to ARMY06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
29.8%
Zac Larrier run for 1 yd to the ARMY 5Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
29.1%
Zac Larrier run for no gain to the ARMY 5Similar
Q3 7:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
28.5%
Zac Larrier sacked by Quindrelin Hammonds for a loss of 10 yards to the ARMY 15Similar
Q3 2:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
12.0%
Matthew Dapore 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3491% → 92%
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
8.9%
Bryson Daily run for 1 yd to the ARMY 21Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+1
8.9%
Bryson Daily run for 1 yd to the ARMY 22Similar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
9.2%
Bryson Daily pass incomplete to Tobi OlawoleSimilar
Q3 1:03
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
8.2%
Cooper Allan punt for 38 yds , Dane Kinamon returns for no gain to the AFA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:1310% → 8%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
9.8%
Owen Burk run for 2 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+8
8.5%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Zac Larrier for 8 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 34
0
8.0%
Zac Larrier pass incomplete to Caleb RillosSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 16
OWN 34
0
7.9%
Carson Bay punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ARMY 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 4:4793% → 96%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
6.8%
Bryson Daily run for 2 yds to the ARMY 32Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+1
6.8%
Bryson Daily run for 1 yd to the ARMY 33Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+23
7.0%
Bryson Daily pass complete to Tyrell Robinson for 23 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
6.2%
PENALTY ARMY Illegal Snap (Small,Brady) 5 yards from AF 44 to AF 49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+8
6.3%
Bryson Daily run for 8 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+3
6.2%
Bryson Daily run for 3 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+3
6.3%
Bryson Daily run for 3 yds to the AFA 35Similar
Q4 10:03
4TH & 1
OPP 35
0
3.7%
Bryson Daily run for no gain to the AFA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20FUMBLE
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:424% → 4%
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
4.0%
Zac Larrier run for 7 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
4.3%
Zac Larrier pass incomplete to Brandon EngelSimilar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+12
4.2%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Wyatt Wilson for 12 yds to the ARMY 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
4.4%
Zac Larrier run for 7 yds to the ARMY 39Similar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 3
OPP 39
0
4.7%
Zac Larrier pass incomplete to Caleb RillosSimilar
Q4 10:03
3RD & 3
OPP 39
-5
4.7%
PENALTY AF False Start (Kinamon,Dane) 5 yards from ARMY39 to ARMY44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 8
OPP 44
-5
3.8%
Zac Larrier sacked by Leo Lowin for a loss of 5 yards to the ARMY 49 Zac Larrier fumbled, recovered by ARMY Jack Latore , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3697% → 98%
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
2.8%
Kanye Udoh run for 6 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+1
2.7%
Kanye Udoh run for 1 yd to the AFA 44Similar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
2.8%
Bryson Daily pass incomplete to Liam FortnerSimilar
Q4 6:45
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
2.3%
Cooper Allan punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Dane Kinamon at the AFA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22INT
7 plays · 44 yds · 2:063% → 2%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
2.5%
Zac Larrier run for 5 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+10
2.5%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Dane Kinamon for 10 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
2.6%
Zac Larrier run for 6 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+8
2.6%
Zac Larrier pass complete to Wyatt Wilson for 8 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
2.7%
Zac Larrier pass incomplete to Wyatt WilsonSimilar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-15
2.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Larrier,Zac pass incomplete deep right to Kinamon,Dane PENALTY ARMY Pass Interference (Nicolas-Paul,Bo) 15 yards from AF 44 to ARMY41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
1.8%
Zac Larrier pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:0698% → 99%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
1.7%
Bryson Daily run for no gain to the ARMY 23Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
1.7%
Bryson Daily run for 2 yds to the ARMY 25Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+2
1.4%
Bryson Daily run for 2 yds to the ARMY 27Similar
Q4 3:33
4TH & 6
OWN 27
+9
1.3%
Cooper Allan punt for 52 yds , Dane Kinamon returns for 9 yds to the AFA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 24FUMBLE
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:051% → 1%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
1.0%
Jensen Jones pass complete to Caleb Rillos for 11 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
1.0%
PENALTY AF False Start 5 yards from AF 41 to AF 36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 15
OWN 36
0
1.0%
Jensen Jones pass incomplete to Dane KinamonSimilar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+14
1.0%
Jensen Jones run for 14 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 1
50
+8
1.0%
Jet Harris run for 8 yds to the ARMY 42 Jet Harris fumbled, recovered by ARMY Dre Miller Harris,Jet rush middle for 8 yards gain to the ARMY42 fumbled by Harris,Jet at ARMY43 forced by Lowin,Leo recovered by ARMY Miller,Dre at ARMY42, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARMYDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · 13 yds · 2:2899% → 100%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
1.0%
Bryson Daily run for 5 yds to the ARMY 47Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+1
0.9%
Champ Harris run for 1 yd to the ARMY 48Similar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+9
1.0%
Kanye Udoh run for 9 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
0.5%
C. Harris takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
MISSED FG · Q3 2:37
Matthew Dapore 32 yd FG MISSED
-16.5
FG · Q2 0:00
Quinn Maretzki 38 yd FG GOOD
-11.2
PUNT · Q3 11:16
Carson Bay punt for 37 yds , Tyrell Robinson returns for 4 yds to the ARMY 37
-10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com