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VAN

Vanderbilt 7 at Ole Miss 33

MISS
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadVAN aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreVAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:22 · Fraser Masin punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jayden McGowan at the VAN 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 68Pregame prior+30.2Home team on offense+21.9Score differential+7.7Garbage-time factor+6.5Blowout margin+5.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 0:33: Caden Davis 48 yd FG GOOD — MISS win probability +0.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:11: Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +2.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:57: Walter Taylor run for 2 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK) — VAN win probability +3.7 pts (now 4%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:52: Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the MISS 23 — MISS win probability +2.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:33: Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +1.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 7VAN made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 10:34MISS 4th & 8 at VAN 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    92.3%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:34VAN 4th & 1 at VAN 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:31VAN 4th & 9 at VAN 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:03VAN 4th & 12 at VAN 23, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:11MISS 4th & 1 at VAN 1, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    92.0%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    89.8%−3.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:33VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 30, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:22VAN 4th & 3 at midfield, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:22MISS 4th & 9 at VAN 49, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:31VAN 4th & 3 at VAN 23, down 26
    Close callPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:27MISS 4th & 4 at VAN 35, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:51MISS 4th & 18 at MISS 25, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−1.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:49VAN 4th & 3 at MISS 43, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−0.9
    28% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:49MISS 4th & 1 at VAN 10, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%−0.6
    88% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−2.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:53VAN 4th & 3 at VAN 32, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:11MISS 4th & 11 at MISS 40, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:47VAN 4th & 5 at MISS 25, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 4VAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:21MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:11MISS Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:40MISS Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:57VAN Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:33MISS Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3994% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 5 yds to the MISS 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
94.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds to the MISS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+39
94.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 39 yds to the VAN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
94.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 6 yds to the VAN 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+1
94.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 1 yd to the VAN 18Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+18
94.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 18 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 2INT
3 plays · -3 yds · 1:316% → 6%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.1%
Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the VAN 29Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-7
94.1%
Ken Seals sacked by Jared Ivey for a loss of 7 yards to the VAN 22Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
93.9%
Ken Seals pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1694% → 94%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
94.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 2 yds to the VAN 9Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
94.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the VAN 9Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
94.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:34
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+27
93.8%
Caden Davis 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 4PUNT
12 plays · 24 yds · 6:036% → 7%
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.6%
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd to the VAN 26Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
93.6%
Ken Seals pass complete to Will Sheppard for 4 yds to the VAN 30Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
93.7%
Ken Seals run for 8 yds to the VAN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
93.6%
Chase Gillespie run for 4 yds to the VAN 42Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
93.6%
Ken Seals pass complete to Junior Sherrill for no gain to the VAN 42Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+5
93.6%
Ken Seals pass complete to Will Sheppard for 5 yds to the VAN 47Similar
Q1 10:34
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+1
93.6%
Ken Seals run for 1 yd to the VAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
93.6%
Ken Seals run for 1 yd to the VAN 49Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+5
93.6%
Sedrick Alexander run for 5 yds to the MISS 46Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
93.6%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:34
4TH & 4
OPP 46
-5
93.6%
Vanderbilt Penalty, Delay Of Game (Aeneas DiCosmo) to the VAN 49Similar
Q1 4:31
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
92.8%
Matthew Hayball punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5FG
12 plays · 38 yds · 3:5893% → 94%
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+40
93.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 40 yds to the VAN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
93.3%
Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VAN 35Similar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+8
93.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 8 yds to the VAN 27Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+7
93.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 7 yds to the VAN 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
93.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 4 yds to the VAN 16Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
93.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:31
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+14
93.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 14 yds to the VAN 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
93.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 3Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
93.3%
Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the VAN 8Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
93.3%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-24
93.2%
Jaxson Dart sacked for a loss of 24 yards to the VAN 32Similar
Q1 0:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 32
+48
93.7%
Caden Davis 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:577% → 7%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.3%
Chase Gillespie run for 4 yds to the VAN 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
93.2%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-6
93.3%
Ken Seals sacked by Cedric Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the VAN 23Similar
Q2 14:03
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
93.4%
Matthew Hayball punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:5294% → 96%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
94.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 16 yds to the MISS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+48
94.2%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 48 yds to the VAN 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
94.2%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 6 yds to the VAN 2Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
94.2%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the VAN 1Similar
Q2 14:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.1%
run for no gain to the VAN 1Similar
Q2 11:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.2%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 8DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:384% → 4%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.2%
Sedrick Alexander run for 3 yds to the VAN 28Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
96.2%
Sedrick Alexander run for 2 yds to the VAN 30Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
96.2%
Ken Seals pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:33
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+2
96.4%
Matthew Hayball run for 2 yds to the VAN 32 Matthew Hayball fumbled, recovered by VAN Matthew Hayball [FAKE PUNT] HAYBALL, Matt rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards, HAYBALL, Matt fumbled at VAN32 forced by BANKS, Tyler, recovered by VAN HAYBALL, Matt at the VAN32, returned 0 yards to the VAN32, End of Play; VAN turnover on downs, clock 09:33.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9TD
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:5396% → 97%
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
96.3%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the VAN 31Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+10
96.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 10 yds to the VAN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
96.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the VAN 17Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+11
96.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 11 yds to the VAN 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
96.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 10DOWNS
6 plays · 40 yds · 3:122% → 2%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
97.6%
Walter Taylor run for 15 yds to the VAN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
97.6%
Jayden McGowan run for 18 yds to the VAN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
97.4%
Walter Taylor run for 2 yds to the VAN 45Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+3
97.3%
Jayden McGowan run for 3 yds to the VAN 48Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+2
97.3%
Walter Taylor pass complete to Chase Gillespie for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:22
4TH & 3
50
0
97.6%
Walter Taylor pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0098% → 97%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
50
0
98.0%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 10
50
+1
98.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the VAN 49Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
97.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
97.1%
Fraser Masin punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jayden McGowan at the VAN 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:512% → 2%
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
97.8%
Walter Taylor run for no gain to the VAN 16Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
97.7%
Walter Taylor pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+7
98.3%
Sedrick Alexander run for 7 yds to the VAN 23Similar
Q2 2:31
4TH & 3
OWN 23
0
98.3%
Matthew Hayball punt for 64 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13INT
9 plays · 57 yds · 2:0098% → 98%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
97.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 2 yds to the MISS 15Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 8
OWN 15
-5
97.4%
DART, Jaxson scrambles up the middle for a gain of 8 yards to the OLE23 (RILEY, Savion). PENALTY Before the snap, OLE Illegal Shift enforced 5 yards from the OLE15 to the OLE10. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 13
OWN 10
+23
97.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 23 yds to the MISS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
97.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 15 yds to the MISS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
97.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds to the VAN 43Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 1
OPP 43
-9
97.6%
DART, Jaxson pass deep to the right incomplete intended for WADE, Dayton thrown to the VAN25. PENALTY OLE Holding on MCGEE, Quincy enforced 9 yards from the VAN43 to the OLE48 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
97.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 7 yds to the VAN 45Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+15
97.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 15 yds to the VAN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+22
98.3%
Vanderbilt Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jeffrey Ugochukwu) to the VAN 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
98.8%
Sedrick Alexander run for 4 yds to the VAN 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15INT
9 plays · 37 yds · 4:011% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.0%
Walter Taylor pass complete to Will Sheppard for 5 yds to the VAN 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
98.9%
Walter Taylor run for 4 yds to the VAN 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+18
98.9%
Walter Taylor run for 18 yds to the MISS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
98.8%
Walter Taylor pass complete to Will Sheppard for 3 yds to the MISS 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+15
98.8%
Ole Miss Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Khari Coleman) to the MISS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
98.7%
QB Keeper TAYLOR, Walter rush to the left for a gain of 8 yards to the OLE22 (PRINCE, Deantre). PENALTY VAN Holding on HERNANDEZ, Julian enforced 10 yards from the OLE30 to the OLE40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 40
+6
98.9%
Chase Gillespie run for 6 yds to the MISS 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 34
-4
98.7%
Walter Taylor run for a loss of 4 yards to the MISS 38Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 18
OPP 38
0
98.8%
Walter Taylor pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:3299% → 99%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
99.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 13 yds to the MISS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
99.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 4
50
-3
99.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the MISS 47Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+12
99.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 12 yds to the VAN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
99.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the VAN 36Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 5
OPP 36
-7
99.1%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Kane Patterson for a loss of 7 yards to the VAN 43Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+8
99.1%
Jaxson Dart run for 8 yds to the VAN 35Similar
Q3 7:27
4TH & 4
OPP 35
0
99.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 17TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 5:301% → 4%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
99.5%
Patrick Smith run for 9 yds to the VAN 44Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+11
99.4%
Walter Taylor run for 11 yds to the MISS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
99.4%
Walter Taylor run for 2 yds to the MISS 43Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+9
99.4%
Patrick Smith run for 9 yds to the MISS 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+28
99.4%
Walter Taylor pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 28 yds to the MISS 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-6
99.4%
Walter Taylor run for a loss of 6 yards to the MISS 12Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+4
99.4%
Walter Taylor run for 4 yds to the MISS 8Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
99.4%
Ole Miss Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ladarius Tennison) to the MISS 7Similar
Q3 7:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
99.4%
Walter Taylor run for 5 yds to the MISS 2Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.6%
Walter Taylor run for 2 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:0198% → 98%
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
97.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the MISS 23Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+10
97.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 10 yds to the MISS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-7
97.8%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Nate Clifton for a loss of 7 yards to the MISS 26Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 17
OWN 26
0
97.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 17
OWN 26
-1
98.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MISS 25Similar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 18
OWN 25
0
97.6%
Fraser Masin punt for 25 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:023% → 3%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
50
-8
96.7%
Walter Taylor sacked by Jared Ivey for a loss of 8 yards to the VAN 42Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 18
OWN 42
+13
97.2%
Ken Seals pass complete to Kamrean Johnson for 13 yds to the MISS 45Similar
Q4 13:39
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+2
96.9%
Patrick Smith run for 2 yds to the MISS 43Similar
Q4 12:49
4TH & 3
OPP 43
-10
97.4%
Walter Taylor sacked by JJ Pegues and Jared Ivey for a loss of 10 yards to the VAN 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20TD
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:1699% → 100%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
98.7%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
98.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 8 yds to the VAN 39Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+7
98.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 7 yds to the VAN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
98.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 13 yds to the VAN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
98.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAN 20Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+3
98.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the VAN 17Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+7
98.7%
Jaxson Dart run for 7 yds to the VAN 10Similar
Q4 12:49
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+7
98.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 7 yds to the VAN 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:400% → 0%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
AJ Newberry run for 6 yds to the VAN 31Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
99.9%
Walter Taylor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
99.9%
Walter Taylor run for 1 yd to the VAN 32Similar
Q4 7:53
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Matthew Hayball punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the MISS 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:42100% → 100%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
99.8%
Matt Jones run for 10 yds to the MISS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
Matt Jones run for 2 yds to the MISS 27Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
99.8%
Spencer Sanders pass complete to Ayden Williams for 14 yds to the MISS 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
99.8%
Spencer Sanders run for a loss of 3 yards to the MISS 38Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+1
99.8%
Matt Jones run for 1 yd to the MISS 39Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+1
99.8%
Spencer Sanders run for 1 yd to the MISS 40Similar
Q4 5:11
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Fraser Masin punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jayden McGowan at the VAN 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 53 yds · 4:240% → 0%
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
99.9%
Walter Taylor run for 4 yds to the VAN 26Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Walter Taylor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+12
99.9%
Walter Taylor run for 12 yds to the VAN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
99.9%
Walter Taylor run for 11 yds to the VAN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+21
99.9%
AJ Newberry run for 21 yds to the MISS 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
99.9%
AJ Newberry run for 3 yds to the MISS 27Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
99.9%
Walter Taylor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+2
99.9%
Walter Taylor run for 2 yds to the MISS 25Similar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 5
OPP 25
0
99.9%
Walter Taylor pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:47100% → 100%
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Jam Griffin run for 6 yds to the MISS 31Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+14
99.9%
Jam Griffin run for 14 yds to the MISS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:57
Walter Taylor run for 2 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)
-3.7
TD · Q2 11:11
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)
+2.1
KEY PLAY · Q3 1:52
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the MISS 23
+2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com