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MD

Maryland 27 at Northwestern 33

NU
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreMD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:03 · Hunter Renner punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jeshaun Jones at the MD 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Pregame prior−31.6Home team on offense−0.9Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score differential−0.2Blowout margin−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:17: Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Cam Porter for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK) — NU win probability +6.6 pts (now 33%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 13:29: Jack Olsen 47 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +5.4 pts (now 54%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 9:19: Jack Olsen 19 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +5.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 5:03: Jack Olsen 29 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +8.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:42: Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 18 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK) — MD win probability +23.3 pts (now 32%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8MD made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 10:03NU 4th & 12 at NU 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:15MD 4th & 4 at NU 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:15MD 4th & 1 at NU 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    57.1%−2.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    50.8%−8.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:18NU 4th & 4 at MD 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−0.1
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    41.1%−6.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:10MD 4th & 10 at NU 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−1.9
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    42.9%−5.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:29NU 4th & 7 at MD 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−6.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:00MD 4th & 12 at NU 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−2.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:26NU 4th & 14 at NU 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−4.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:45MD 4th & 4 at NU 4, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.7%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    19.1%−13.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:20NU 4th & 6 at NU 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−1.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:54MD 4th & 22 at MD 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−6.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:19NU 4th & 1 at MD 1, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.7%−5.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    64.2%−17.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:10MD 4th & 23 at MD 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−2.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:03NU 4th & 11 at MD 11, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    85.3%−4.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:16NU 4th & 8 at NU 27, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−1.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MD made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:44MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:50NU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:34MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:42NU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:17NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:42MD Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 2:1083% → 83%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
16.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 11 yds to the MD 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+36
16.9%
Kaden Prather run for 36 yds to the NU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
16.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 4 yds to the NU 8Similar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
16.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 7 yds to the NU 48Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
17.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 8 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:3818% → 18%
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
17.5%
A.J. Henning run for 11 yds to the NU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
17.5%
Cam Porter run for 4 yds to the NU 42Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
17.6%
Brendan Sullivan sacked by Taizse Johnson for 0 yards to the NU 42Similar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 6
OWN 42
-6
17.5%
Brendan Sullivan sacked by Ruben Hyppolite II for a loss of 6 yards to the NU 36Similar
Q1 10:03
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
18.0%
Hunter Renner punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jeshaun Jones at the MD 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3FUMBLE
1 play · -12 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-12
18.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked for a loss of 12 yards at the MD18, fumble on the sack, recovered by Bryce Gallagher at the MD18, returned 6 yards to the MD12.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 1:0619% → 21%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
18.7%
A.J. Henning run for 1 yd to the MD 11Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+10
18.7%
Brendan Sullivan run for 10 yds to the MD 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
20.5%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:0781% → 82%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
19.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 6 yds to the NU 39Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+3
19.4%
Antwain Littleton II run for 3 yds to the NU 36Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+2
19.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 2 yds to the NU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
19.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+8
19.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 8 yds to the NU 26Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+2
19.5%
Antwain Littleton II run for 2 yds to the NU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
19.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
18.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 24 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 2:4819% → 24%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
19.4%
Anthony Tyus III run for 5 yds to the NU 36Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+15
19.7%
Maryland Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Fa'Najae Gotay) to the MD 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
20.0%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 4 yds to the MD 43Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+24
20.0%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 24 yds to the MD 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-4
20.3%
Anthony Tyus III run for a loss of 4 yards to the MD 23Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 14
OPP 23
+23
24.1%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 23 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2278% → 76%
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
22.1%
Ramon Brown run for 3 yds to the MD 49Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+3
22.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 3 yds to the NU 48Similar
Q1 2:37
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
22.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:15
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
23.4%
Colton Spangler punt for 45 yds, downed at the NU 3Similar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
24.1%
Maryland Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the NU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 97 yds · 3:5824% → 33%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 5
OWN 8
+23
24.1%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Marshall Lang for 23 yds to the NU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
24.4%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the NU 33Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+9
25.2%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to A.J. Henning for 9 yds to the NU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+21
25.9%
Brendan Sullivan run for 6 yds to the MD 48 for a 1ST down Maryland Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Riyad Wilmot) to the MD 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+18
26.4%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 18 yds to the MD 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
26.6%
Cam Porter run for 5 yds to the MD 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+10
26.6%
Cam Porter run for 10 yds to the MD 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
26.6%
Brendan Sullivan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
26.6%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the MD 3Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
33.2%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Cam Porter for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9DOWNS
12 plays · 77 yds · 6:0168% → 61%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
31.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for no gain to the MD 22Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
31.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 4 yds to the MD 26Similar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+24
32.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
50
+6
30.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 6 yds to the NU 44Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+12
29.9%
Roman Hemby run for 12 yds to the NU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
29.4%
Roman Hemby run for 8 yds to the NU 24Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+15
29.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 15 yds to the NU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
29.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 8 yds to the NU 1Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
35.7%
Antwain Littleton II run for no gain to the NU 1Similar
Q2 6:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
36.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for no gain to the NU 1Similar
Q2 6:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
38.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10FG
14 plays · 84 yds · 4:5741% → 52%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
40.6%
Brendan Sullivan run for 2 yds to the NU 3Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
40.4%
Northwestern Penalty, False Start (Yards) to the NU 2Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+12
40.4%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Cam Johnson for 12 yds to the NU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
40.7%
Joseph Himon II run for 1 yd to the NU 15Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+10
40.6%
Brendan Sullivan run for 10 yds to the NU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
41.0%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to A.J. Henning for 3 yds to the NU 28Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
41.1%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to A.J. Henning for 4 yds to the NU 32Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+13
40.6%
Brendan Sullivan run for 13 yds to the NU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+34
42.6%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Cam Johnson for 34 yds to the MD 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
43.4%
Anthony Tyus III run for 8 yds to the MD 13Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 2
OPP 13
-2
49.9%
Anthony Tyus III run for a loss of 2 yards to the MD 15Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 4
OPP 15
0
48.6%
Brendan Sullivan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+33
52.0%
Jack Olsen 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11FG
9 plays · 59 yds · 1:0848% → 53%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
52.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for a loss of 1 yard to the MD 24Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+14
52.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 14 yds to the MD 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
51.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 22 yds to the NU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+24
48.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Kaden Prather for 24 yds to the NU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
46.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
46.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
48.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+34
47.1%
Jack Howes 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.3%
[NHSG] Kneel down by NU at NU24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2251% → 54%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
50.6%
Brendan Sullivan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-2
50.5%
A.J. Henning run for a loss of 2 yards to the MD 34Similar
Q3 14:51
3RD & 12
OPP 34
+5
48.4%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Cam Porter for 5 yds to the MD 29Similar
Q3 13:29
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+47
53.8%
Jack Olsen 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:2346% → 42%
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
54.0%
Colby McDonald run for 19 yds to the NU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
51.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the NU 48Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 12
OPP 48
0
52.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 12
OPP 48
0
54.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:00
4TH & 12
OPP 48
0
57.8%
Colton Spangler punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:3457% → 57%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
57.0%
Brendan Sullivan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
56.6%
Brendan Sullivan run for no gain to the NU 16Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 10
OWN 16
-4
55.4%
Brendan Sullivan sacked by Donnell Brown for a loss of 4 yards to the NU 12Similar
Q3 10:26
4TH & 14
OWN 12
0
57.1%
Hunter Renner punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16FG
12 plays · 38 yds · 5:4144% → 43%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
55.8%
Colby McDonald run for no gain to the NU 42Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
56.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Aidan Hubbard for 0 yards to the NU 42Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+10
57.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 10 yds to the NU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
54.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
54.5%
Colby McDonald run for 12 yds to the NU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
53.8%
Colby McDonald run for 2 yds to the NU 18Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+2
53.8%
Roman Hemby run for 2 yds to the NU 16Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+5
55.5%
Northwestern Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Xander Mueller) to the NU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
53.8%
Antwain Littleton II run for 2 yds to the NU 3Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
53.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Aidan Hubbard for a loss of 1 yard to the NU 4Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
55.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Xander Mueller for 0 yards to the NU 4Similar
Q3 4:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
56.9%
Jack Howes 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:2064% → 66%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
63.9%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the NU 30Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-1
63.8%
Brendan Sullivan sacked by Tre Colbert for a loss of 1 yard to the NU 29Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+4
62.1%
Brendan Sullivan run for 4 yds to the NU 33Similar
Q3 2:20
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
65.8%
Hunter Renner punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 3:2638% → 27%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
62.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+8
62.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 8 yds to the MD 24Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+4
62.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 4 yds to the MD 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
61.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+12
62.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for 12 yds to the MD 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
64.8%
Colby McDonald run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
62.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
50
-4
63.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for a loss of 4 yards to the MD 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 46
-8
67.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by R.J. Pearson for a loss of 8 yards to the MD 38Similar
Q4 13:54
4TH & 22
OWN 38
0
73.1%
Colton Spangler punt for 45 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the NU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:3576% → 83%
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
76.4%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Joseph Himon II for 14 yds to the NU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
78.4%
Brendan Sullivan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:54
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+18
77.8%
Brendan Sullivan run for 18 yds to the MD 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-10
78.8%
QB Keeper SULLIVAN, Brendan rush to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the MD33 (WILMOT, Riyad), out of bounds. PENALTY NU Holding on WRATHER, Ben enforced 10 yards from the MD36 to the MD46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:54
1ST & 20
OPP 46
+5
77.9%
Brendan Sullivan run for 5 yds to the MD 41Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & 15
OPP 41
+34
77.6%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to A.J. Henning for 34 yds to the MD 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
79.2%
Maryland Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jaishawn Barham) to the MD 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
79.2%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the MD 1Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
79.2%
Cam Porter run for no gain to the MD 1Similar
Q4 13:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
77.9%
Brendan Sullivan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
83.0%
Jack Olsen 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 1:0516% → 12%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
84.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 2 yds to the MD 34Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-15
84.1%
TAGOVAILOA, Taulia pass deep to the right complete for 30 yards to JONES, Jeshaun caught at the NU39 and advanced to the NU36 (HEARD II, Rod). PENALTY MD Pass Interference on JONES, Jeshaun enforced 15 yards to the MD19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 23
OWN 19
0
85.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 23
OWN 19
0
86.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:10
4TH & 23
OWN 19
0
88.0%
Colton Spangler punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21FG
7 plays · 49 yds · 3:0788% → 95%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
88.1%
Joseph Himon II run for no gain to the NU 40Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+53
87.9%
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Joseph Himon II for 53 yds to the MD 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
88.5%
Joseph Himon II run for 1 yd to the MD 6Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
88.5%
Anthony Tyus III run for no gain to the MD 6Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
88.1%
Brendan Sullivan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
86.7%
Northwestern Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the MD 11Similar
Q4 5:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
95.0%
Jack Olsen 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 1:208% → 32%
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
92.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 16 yds to the NU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
91.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 6 yds to the NU 39Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+9
91.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 9 yds to the NU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
91.2%
TAGOVAILOA, Taulia pass to the left incomplete intended for DYCHES, Corey thrown to the NU18. PENALTY NU Pass Interference on TURNER, Devin enforced at the spot of the foul for 12 yards to the NU18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
67.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 18 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:2288% → 90%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
88.1%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the NU 26Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
90.0%
Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the NU 28Similar
Q4 3:22
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-1
90.2%
Brendan Sullivan sacked by Tre Colbert for a loss of 1 yard to the NU 27Similar
Q4 3:16
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
89.8%
Hunter Renner punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jeshaun Jones at the MD 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24INT
8 plays · 28 yds · 1:5111% → 13%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
88.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Aidan Hubbard for a loss of 5 yards to the MD 36Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+12
91.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Roman Hemby for 12 yds to the MD 48Similar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+5
88.9%
Roman Hemby run for 5 yds to the NU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
87.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 5 yds to the NU 42Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+11
86.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 11 yds to the NU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
85.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Octavian Smith Jr. for no gain to the NU 31Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
85.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
87.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 1:2595% → 96%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
95.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by NU at NU5 (team loss of 3).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 5
0
96.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by NU at NU4 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:42
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 18 yds for a TD (Jack Howes KICK)
-23.3
FG · Q4 5:03
Jack Olsen 29 yd FG GOOD
+8.3
TD · Q2 12:17
Brendan Sullivan pass complete to Cam Porter for 3 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)
+6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com