Try the model
MSU

Michigan State 12 at Minnesota 27

MINN
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · Huntington Bank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:34 · Ryan Eckley punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Quentin Redding at the MINN 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Pregame prior+13.1Home team on offense−2.7Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 4:54: Dragan Kesich 25 yd FG GOOD — MINN win probability +0.7 pts (now 59%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:19: Daniel Jackson 22 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Dragan Kesich Kick) — MINN win probability +9.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:07: Jordan Nubin run for 18 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +14.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:37: Sam Leavitt pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — MSU win probability +26.3 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 4:11: Jordan Nubin run for 2 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK) — MINN win probability +14.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 2 of 6MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 9
  1. Q1 13:19MSU 4th & 5 at MINN 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    31.3%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:49MSU 4th & 1 at MINN 24, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.5%−0.2
    68% to make
    Punt
    32.0%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:11MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 33, down 6
    Close callPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:33MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 26, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:11MINN 4th & 4 at MSU 46, down 6
    Close callPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    64.6%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:34MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 39, up 6
    Close callPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:58MINN 4th & 10 at MSU 17, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−1.0
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    53.6%−5.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:34MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 23, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:54MINN 4th & 3 at MSU 7, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.4%−0.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    48.8%−7.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:14MSU 4th & 9 at MINN 40, up 3
    Close callPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    40.5%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:04MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 27, down 4
    Close callPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:00MINN 4th & 10 at MINN 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%−1.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:48MSU 4th & 6 at MINN 36, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.5%−0.7
    42% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:32MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 49, down 4
    Close callPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:25MINN 4th & 1 at MSU 12, up 12
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.8%−1.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    91.7%−4.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q2 0:19MINN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 12:07MINN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 8:37MSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.2 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    24.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    23.5%−1.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:11MINN Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:1967% → 67%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
67.2%
Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the MINN 26 Sean Tyler fumbled, recovered by MSU Jaden Mangham [NHSG] TYLER, Sean rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard, TYLER, Sean fumbled at UMN26 forced by HARMON, Derrick, recovered by MSU MANGHAM, Jaden at the UMN26, returned 0 yards to the UMN26, End of Play, clock 14:41.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2233% → 33%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
67.2%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:41
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+6
67.2%
Nathan Carter run for 6 yds to the MINN 20Similar
Q1 14:41
3RD & 4
OPP 20
-1
67.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Nathan Carter for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 21Similar
Q1 13:19
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+38
66.9%
Jonathan Kim 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3FUMBLE
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:4067% → 67%
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
66.9%
Jordan Nubin run for 5 yds to the MINN 30Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+13
66.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 13 yds to the MINN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-8
67.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Sean Tyler for a loss of 8 yards to the MINN 35Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 18
OWN 35
+12
66.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Corey Crooms Jr. for 12 yds to the MINN 47Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 6
OWN 47
-14
66.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked for a loss of 14 yards to the MINN 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4FG
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5034% → 34%
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
65.9%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+9
65.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tre Mosley for 9 yds to the MINN 24Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 1
OPP 24
0
66.0%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+42
65.6%
Jonathan Kim 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:3866% → 65%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
65.8%
Jordan Nubin run for 3 yds to the MINN 28Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
65.8%
Jordan Nubin run for 2 yds to the MINN 30Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-10
65.7%
NUBIN, Jordan rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the UMN35 (HALADAY, Cal). PENALTY UMN Holding on JOHNSON, Greg enforced 10 yards from the UMN30 to the UMN20. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+13
65.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 13 yds to the MINN 33Similar
Q1 7:11
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
64.6%
Mark Crawford punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3835% → 35%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
64.6%
Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MSU 26Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
64.6%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
64.8%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:33
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
65.0%
Ryan Eckley punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:2265% → 64%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
64.7%
Jordan Nubin run for 7 yds to the MINN 41Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+7
65.3%
Jordan Nubin run for 7 yds to the MINN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
65.4%
Jordan Nubin run for 4 yds to the MSU 48Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+2
65.6%
Jordan Nubin run for 2 yds to the MSU 46Similar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
65.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:11
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
63.9%
Mark Crawford punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 3:3737% → 39%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
63.1%
Nathan Carter run for no gain to the MSU 7Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+5
63.1%
Alante Brown run for 5 yds to the MSU 12Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 5
OWN 12
+6
63.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Harold Joiner III for 6 yds to the MSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
62.9%
HOUSER, Katin pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for GATES JR., Antonio thrown to the UMN47. PENALTY UMN Pass Interference on WALLEY, Justin enforced 15 yards to the MSU33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
62.5%
Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 36Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+3
62.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 3 yds to the MSU 39Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
62.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Nathan Carter for no gain to the MSU 39Similar
Q1 0:34
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
61.1%
Ryan Eckley punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Quentin Redding at the MINN 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9MISSED FG
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:3662% → 57%
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
61.5%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Nick Kallerup for 4 yds to the MINN 12Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+5
61.3%
Jordan Nubin run for 5 yds to the MINN 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+2
60.8%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 2 yds to the MINN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
61.5%
Jordan Nubin run for 2 yds to the MINN 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+6
61.4%
Jordan Nubin run for 6 yds to the MINN 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+13
61.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 13 yds to the MINN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+31
62.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 31 yds to the MSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
64.0%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
63.9%
Jordan Nubin run for 2 yds to the MSU 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+10
63.1%
KALIAKMANIS, Athan pass to the right incomplete intended for SPANN-FORD, Brevyn broken up by TATUM, Dillon at the MSU19. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on TATUM, Dillon enforced at the spot of the foul for 10 yards to the MSU17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
63.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 18Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
60.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+1
60.5%
Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the MSU 17Similar
Q2 9:58
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+35
57.4%
Dragan Kesich 35 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2243% → 43%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
56.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Alante Brown for 2 yds to the MSU 22Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+1
56.9%
Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MSU 23Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
57.3%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:34
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
57.1%
Ryan Eckley punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Quentin Redding at the MINN 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11FG
8 plays · 53 yds · 3:4058% → 59%
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
57.7%
Jordan Nubin run for 4 yds to the MINN 44Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+7
58.1%
Jordan Nubin run for 7 yds to the MSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-9
58.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Derrick Harmon and Jalen Sami for a loss of 9 yards to the MINN 42Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 19
OWN 42
+30
56.5%
Michigan State Penalty, Personal Foul (Khris Bogle) to the MSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
59.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:34
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+6
59.6%
Jordan Nubin run for 6 yds to the MSU 8Similar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+1
58.6%
Jordan Nubin run for 1 yd to the MSU 7Similar
Q2 4:54
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+25
59.3%
Dragan Kesich 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 35 yds · 1:4043% → 43%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
57.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 34 yds to the MINN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
55.0%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
55.1%
Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MINN 40Similar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
55.5%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:14
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
56.7%
Ryan Eckley punt for 34 yds, downed at the MINN 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13TD
10 plays · 94 yds · 2:5556% → 70%
Q2 3:14
1ST & 9
OWN 6
+13
56.3%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 13 yds to the MINN 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+18
57.2%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 18 yds to the MINN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
58.3%
Jordan Nubin run for 6 yds to the MINN 43Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+7
60.1%
Jordan Nubin run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
50
+30
60.4%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Corey Crooms Jr. for 30 yds to the MSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
60.9%
Jordan Nubin run for 3 yds to the MSU 17Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 7
OPP 17
-5
60.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Jordan Hall for a loss of 5 yards to the MSU 22Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 12
OPP 22
+22
70.3%
Daniel Jackson 22 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Dragan Kesich Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
68.8%
Nathan Carter run for 10 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5032% → 31%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
67.7%
Katin Houser run for 5 yds to the MSU 25Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
67.0%
Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the MSU 27Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
67.7%
Nathan Carter run for no gain to the MSU 27Similar
Q3 13:04
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
69.2%
Ryan Eckley punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0469% → 66%
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
68.6%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
68.4%
Jordan Nubin run for no gain to the MINN 33Similar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
67.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:00
4TH & 10
OWN 33
0
66.0%
Mark Crawford punt for 55 yds, downed at the MSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17MISSED FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 4:1232% → 32%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
67.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 6 yds to the MSU 18Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+2
67.7%
Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the MSU 20Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+10
68.7%
HOUSER, Katin pass deep to the left incomplete intended for MOSLEY, Tre thrown to the MSU45. PENALTY UMN Holding on JONES, Tre'Von enforced 10 yards from the MSU20 to the MSU30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
67.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tre Mosley for 12 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
65.7%
Nathan Carter run for 18 yds to the MINN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
64.0%
CARTER, Nate rush up the middle for a loss of 1 yard to the UMN41 (HENDERSON, Jack;RICHTER, Logan). PENALTY MSU Holding on SAMAC, Nick enforced 10 yards from the UMN40 to the MSU50 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 20
50
+1
66.0%
Katin Houser run for 1 yd to the MINN 49Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 19
OPP 49
0
66.3%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 19
OPP 49
+13
67.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Brennan Parachek for 13 yds to the MINN 36Similar
Q3 7:48
4TH & 6
OPP 36
+53
67.6%
Jonathan Kim 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18INT
6 plays · 28 yds · 3:1572% → 74%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
71.9%
Jordan Nubin run for 1 yd to the MINN 37Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+1
71.5%
Jordan Nubin run for 1 yd to the MINN 38Similar
Q3 7:48
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+10
70.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 10 yds to the MINN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
73.3%
Jordan Nubin run for 13 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
73.9%
Jordan Nubin run for 3 yds to the MSU 36Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
74.1%
Athan Kaliakmanis pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 35 yds · 2:0130% → 32%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+30
69.6%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tre Mosley for 30 yds to the MSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
66.4%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the MSU 46Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+3
65.9%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 3 yds to the MSU 49Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
65.7%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:32
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
68.5%
Ryan Eckley punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Quentin Redding at the MINN 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20TD
9 plays · 87 yds · 5:2572% → 90%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
71.7%
Jordan Nubin run for 3 yds to the MINN 16Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+9
71.7%
Jordan Nubin run for 9 yds to the MINN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
72.0%
Jordan Nubin run for 8 yds to the MINN 33Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
74.0%
Jordan Nubin run for 3 yds to the MINN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
73.4%
Jordan Nubin run for 7 yds to the MINN 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+18
74.9%
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 18 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
75.7%
Jordan Nubin run for 2 yds to the MSU 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+19
75.6%
Jordan Nubin run for 19 yds to the MSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
89.7%
Jordan Nubin run for 18 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3013% → 40%
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.3%
Sam Leavitt run for 6 yds to the MSU 31Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
85.8%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Nathan Carter for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 29Similar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
87.3%
Sam Leavitt run for 6 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+29
86.2%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jaron Glover for 29 yds to the MINN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
84.2%
Sam Leavitt run for 9 yds to the MINN 27Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+5
82.6%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Jaron Glover for 5 yds to the MINN 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+13
87.3%
Sam Leavitt run for 13 yds to the MINN 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
59.9%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22TD
7 plays · 46 yds · 4:2583% → 97%
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
83.2%
Jordan Nubin run for 2 yds to the MSU 44Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+3
82.9%
Jordan Nubin run for 3 yds to the MSU 41Similar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+10
81.9%
Michigan State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jalen Thompson) to the MSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
83.5%
Jordan Nubin run for 5 yds to the MSU 19Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 5
OPP 19
-1
83.4%
Jordan Nubin run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 20Similar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+18
82.2%
Jordan Nubin run for 18 yds to the MSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.5%
Jordan Nubin run for 2 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23FUMBLE
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:166% → 6%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.0%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
94.1%
Sam Leavitt sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the MSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 24FG
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:2097% → 98%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
97.0%
Jordan Nubin run for 4 yds to the MSU 17Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+3
97.6%
Jordan Nubin run for 3 yds to the MSU 14Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+2
97.7%
Jordan Nubin run for 2 yds to the MSU 12Similar
Q4 3:25
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+31
98.4%
Dragan Kesich 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25INT
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:001% → 1%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.0%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 12 yds to the MSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.0%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.0%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Nathan Carter for 5 yds to the MSU 42Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+7
98.9%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Nathan Carter for 7 yds to the MSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
98.9%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 8 yds to the MINN 43Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 2
OPP 43
0
98.6%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+22
98.7%
Sam Leavitt run for 22 yds to the MINN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
98.7%
Sam Leavitt pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -5 yds · 1:2599% → 99%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
98.7%
[NH] Kneel down by KALIAKMANIS, Athan at UMN11 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 11
0
98.8%
[NH] Kneel down by KALIAKMANIS, Athan at UMN8 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:37
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 9 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-26.3
TD · Q4 4:11
Jordan Nubin run for 2 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)
+14.3
TD · Q4 12:07
Jordan Nubin run for 18 yds for a TD (Dragan Kesich KICK)
+14.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com