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TENN

Tennessee 33 at Kentucky 27

UK
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreTENN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:44 · Joe Milton III run for 1 yd to the UK 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:38: Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 11 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — UK win probability +8.8 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 1:46: Ray Davis run for 7 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — UK win probability +12.3 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q3 2:39: Devin Leary pass complete to Dane Key for 7 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK) — UK win probability +17.5 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q4 7:30: Dylan Sampson run for 12 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK) — TENN win probability +23.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 4:24: Alex Raynor 28 yd FG GOOD — UK win probability +12.1 pts (now 29%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 4 of 6TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:35UK 4th & 1 at UK 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:37UK 4th & 1 at UK 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.1%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:34TENN 4th & 12 at UK 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    57.6%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:51UK 4th & 9 at TENN 10, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    35.3%−2.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:13TENN 4th & 9 at UK 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    60.2%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:54TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 34, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:27UK 4th & 6 at TENN 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    38.5%−0.8
    47% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:49TENN 4th & 16 at UK 17, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−3.6
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    55.1%−10.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:45TENN 4th & 13 at TENN 37, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−5.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:57UK 4th & 11 at TENN 35, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−1.8
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.0%
    45% to make
    Punt
    42.8%−3.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:24UK 4th & 2 at TENN 10, down 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%
    55% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.9%−0.6
    88% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−8.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 10:47TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:38UK Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:16TENN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:46UK Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:39UK Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:30TENN Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UKDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1036% → 37%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.3%
Ray Davis run for no gain to the UK 25Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
36.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for a loss of 5 yards to the UK 20Similar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+14
36.8%
Devin Leary run for 14 yds to the UK 34Similar
Q1 12:35
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
37.1%
Wilson Berry punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dee Williams at the TENN 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:3363% → 64%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
37.2%
Jaylen Wright run for 4 yds to the TENN 34Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+4
37.2%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 4 yds to the TENN 38Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+3
37.3%
Joe Milton III run for 3 yds to the TENN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
37.4%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 7 yds to the TENN 48Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+52
35.9%
Jaylen Wright run for 52 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4336% → 36%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
36.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 4 yds to the UK 29Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
36.5%
Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the UK 34Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
36.5%
Devin Leary run for no gain to the UK 34Similar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
36.1%
Ray Davis run for no gain to the UK 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4FG
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:5265% → 64%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
35.5%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jabari Small for 8 yds to the UK 26Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+2
35.4%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the UK 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
35.2%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the UK 22Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+4
35.2%
Jabari Small run for 4 yds to the UK 18Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 4
OPP 18
-10
35.4%
Milton III, Joe rush for 6 yards to the KENTUCKY12, PENALTY TENNESSEE holding 10 yards to the KENTUCKY28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 14
OPP 28
+2
35.6%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 2 yds to the UK 26Similar
Q1 5:34
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+44
35.6%
Charles Campbell 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5FG
14 plays · 66 yds · 5:3636% → 37%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
35.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Jordan Dingle for 22 yds to the UK 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
36.4%
Kentucky Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UK 42Similar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 15
OWN 42
-5
36.0%
Kentucky Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UK 37Similar
Q1 3:57
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+5
35.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 5 yds to the UK 42Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 15
OWN 42
+10
34.9%
Devin Leary run for 10 yds to the TENN 48Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+16
35.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Jordan Dingle for 16 yds to the TENN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
35.7%
Ray Davis run for no gain to the TENN 32Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+5
35.6%
Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TENN 27Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+17
35.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 17 yds to the TENN 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
35.6%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Dane KeySimilar
Q1 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+1
35.6%
Ray Davis run for 1 yd to the TENN 10Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 9
OPP 10
0
34.9%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Jordan DingleSimilar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+28
36.5%
Alex Raynor 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 6FG
13 plays · 44 yds · 3:2865% → 66%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.3%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
35.5%
Jaylen Wright run for 11 yds to the TENN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
34.7%
Jaylen Wright run for 18 yds to the UK 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
34.0%
Jaylen Wright run for 5 yds to the UK 41Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 5
OPP 41
-5
33.8%
Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UK 46Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
33.9%
Dylan Sampson run for 5 yds to the UK 41Similar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+9
34.1%
Dylan Sampson run for 9 yds to the UK 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
33.6%
Dylan Sampson run for 1 yd to the UK 31Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
33.6%
Joe Milton III pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 9
OPP 31
-5
34.0%
Tennessee Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UK 36Similar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 14
OPP 36
+5
34.7%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 5 yds to the UK 31Similar
Q2 11:13
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+49
33.7%
Charles Campbell 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0733% → 43%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
32.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 32 yds to the TENN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
34.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Dane Key for 10 yds to the TENN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
34.7%
JuTahn McClain run for 1 yd to the TENN 32Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
34.6%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Tayvion RobinsonSimilar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+17
33.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Dane Key for 17 yds to the TENN 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
34.6%
Ray Davis run for 4 yds to the TENN 11Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+11
43.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 11 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1061% → 70%
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
39.4%
Joe Milton III run for 19 yds to the TENN 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
37.9%
Jabari Small run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 4
50
+7
37.6%
Jabari Small run for 7 yds to the UK 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
37.6%
Jabari Small run for 4 yds to the UK 39Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+39
29.8%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 39 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2431% → 46%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
30.9%
Ray Davis run for 2 yds to the UK 27Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+20
30.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Anthony Brown-Stephens for 20 yds to the UK 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
32.3%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Tayvion RobinsonSimilar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
32.0%
Demie Sumo-Karngbaye run for 2 yds to the UK 49Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+10
31.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Dane Key for 10 yds to the TENN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
32.6%
Ray Davis run for 3 yds to the TENN 38Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+17
32.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Josh Kattus for 17 yds to the TENN 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
33.2%
Tayvion Robinson run for 6 yds to the TENN 15Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+8
33.2%
Ray Davis run for 8 yds to the TENN 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
45.5%
Ray Davis run for 7 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 1:1561% → 70%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.1%
Dylan Sampson run for no gain to the TENN 25Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
39.4%
Dylan Sampson run for 4 yds to the TENN 29Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+18
40.0%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 18 yds to the TENN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
37.2%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 7 yds to the UK 46Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+5
36.0%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Dylan Sampson for 5 yds to the UK 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+25
36.8%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 25 yds to the UK 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+34
30.4%
Charles Campbell 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5667% → 66%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
33.3%
Jaylen Wright run for 6 yds to the TENN 31Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
32.2%
Jaylen Wright run for 3 yds to the TENN 34Similar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
32.6%
Joe Milton III run for no gain to the TENN 34Similar
Q3 13:54
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
33.7%
Jackson Ross punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the UK 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 3:1037% → 37%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
36.5%
Ray Davis run for 6 yds to the UK 36Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+14
38.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Dane Key for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
50
+9
38.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 9 yds to the TENN 41Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+3
39.4%
Ray Davis run for 3 yds to the TENN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-11
39.4%
Devin Leary sacked by Omarr Norman-Lott for a loss of 11 yards to the TENN 49Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 21
OPP 49
0
37.3%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Ray DavisSimilar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 21
OPP 49
+15
35.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Jordan Dingle for 15 yds to the TENN 34Similar
Q3 10:27
4TH & 6
OPP 34
0
37.0%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Demie Sumo-KarngbayeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:2568% → 73%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
32.2%
Milton III, Joe rush for 12 yards to the TENNESSEE46, PENALTY TENNESSEE holding 10 yards to the TENNESSEE24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+1
33.7%
Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd to the TENN 25Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 19
OWN 25
+47
32.7%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 47 yds to the UK 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
28.5%
Jaylen Wright run for 9 yds to the UK 19Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+8
28.5%
Jaylen Wright run for 8 yds to the UK 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
28.4%
Jaylen Wright run for 3 yds to the UK 8Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 7
OPP 8
-5
28.3%
Joe Milton III run for a loss of 5 yards to the UK 13Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 12
OPP 13
-4
29.2%
Joe Milton III sacked by Deone Walker for a loss of 4 yards to the UK 17Similar
Q3 6:49
4TH & 16
OPP 17
+35
27.2%
Charles Campbell 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0128% → 49%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
27.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 12 yds to the UK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
28.4%
Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UK 42Similar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 5
OWN 42
+5
29.9%
Tennessee Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the UK 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
29.8%
Ray Davis run for 5 yds to the TENN 48Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+34
30.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Dane Key for 34 yds to the TENN 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
31.6%
Devin Leary run for 8 yds to the TENN 6Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 2
OPP 6
-1
31.5%
Ray Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 7Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+7
49.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Dane Key for 7 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 2:4559% → 57%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.5%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 5 yds to the TENN 30Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
40.5%
Jabari Small run for 4 yds to the TENN 34Similar
Q3 1:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
40.6%
Jabari Small run for no gain to the TENN 34Similar
Q3 1:32
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+6
40.9%
Kentucky Penalty, Defensive Offside (6 Yards) to the TENN 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
37.1%
Joe Milton III run for 1 yd to the TENN 41Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+3
37.8%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the TENN 44Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-7
37.7%
Joe Milton III sacked by Octavious Oxendine and Josaih Hayes for a loss of 7 yards to the TENN 37Similar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 13
OWN 37
0
43.0%
Jackson Ross punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tayvion Robinson at the UK 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17MISSED FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 3:4045% → 44%
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
45.3%
Ray Davis run for no gain to the UK 20Similar
Q4 13:53
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
45.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ray Davis for 10 yds to the UK 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+21
46.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Dane Key for 21 yds to the TENN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
50.6%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Barion BrownSimilar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+15
50.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Demie Sumo-Karngbaye for 15 yds to the TENN 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
52.9%
Ray Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 35Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 11
OPP 35
0
52.9%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 11
OPP 35
0
49.5%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Barion BrownSimilar
Q4 10:57
4TH & 11
OPP 35
+53
44.0%
Alex Raynor 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 3:2762% → 88%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
37.9%
Tennessee Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the TENN 20Similar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
39.1%
Dylan Sampson run for 1 yd to the TENN 21Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+12
39.5%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Dont'e Thornton Jr. for 12 yds to the TENN 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
38.1%
Dylan Sampson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 32Similar
Q4 9:38
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+11
39.4%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Dylan Sampson for 11 yds to the TENN 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
36.1%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 9 yds to the UK 48Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+3
34.6%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the UK 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
35.0%
Joe Milton III run for 7 yds to the UK 38Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+9
34.4%
Dylan Sampson run for 9 yds to the UK 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
33.0%
Dylan Sampson run for no gain to the UK 29Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
33.6%
Joe Milton III pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+17
35.7%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Dylan Sampson for 17 yds to the UK 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
12.0%
Dylan Sampson run for 12 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19FG
12 plays · 65 yds · 2:4616% → 29%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
16.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 8 yds to the UK 33Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
17.2%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Tayvion RobinsonSimilar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
15.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Jordan Dingle for 8 yds to the UK 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
16.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ray Davis for 13 yds to the TENN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
17.8%
Tennessee Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the TENN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+18
17.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Josh Kattus for 18 yds to the TENN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
19.7%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
19.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ray Davis for 5 yds to the TENN 13Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 5
OPP 13
-5
17.8%
Kentucky Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TENN 18Similar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+8
17.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Barion Brown for 8 yds to the TENN 10Similar
Q4 4:24
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+28
29.4%
Alex Raynor 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20END OF GAME
14 plays · 51 yds · 3:3284% → 95%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
16.1%
Dylan Sampson run for 5 yds to the TENN 30Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
14.1%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Dylan Sampson for 6 yds to the TENN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+24
12.4%
Dylan Sampson run for 24 yds to the UK 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
10.3%
Dylan Sampson run for no gain to the UK 40Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
7.5%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the UK 37Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+11
6.7%
Joe Milton III run for 11 yds to the UK 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
6.0%
Dylan Sampson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UK 27Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+2
4.6%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the UK 25Similar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+1
4.8%
Joe Milton III run for 1 yd to the UK 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:30
Dylan Sampson run for 12 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)
-23.6
TD · Q3 2:39
Devin Leary pass complete to Dane Key for 7 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
+17.5
TD · Q2 1:46
Ray Davis run for 7 yds for a TD (Alex Raynor KICK)
+12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com