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MSST

Mississippi State 13 at Auburn 27

AUB
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:15 · Keelan Crimmins punt for 39 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Home team on offense+5.8Pregame prior+12.4Score differential+1.9Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:12: Payton Thorne pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 45 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +3.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 7:18: Alex McPherson 39 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +2.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:09: Payton Thorne pass complete to Jeremiah Cobb for 7 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +9.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 3:14: Alex McPherson 49 yd FG GOOD — AUB win probability +3.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:54: Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 14 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK) — MSST win probability +9.2 pts (now 12%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 7MSST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:38MSST 4th & 1 at AUB 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    31.3%−0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:20MSST 4th & 5 at AUB 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    29.3%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:35MSST 4th & 4 at AUB 43, down 11
    Close callPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    28.0%−0.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:04AUB 4th & 3 at MSST 45, up 11
    Close callPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    73.2%−1.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:15MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 21, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:18AUB 4th & 5 at MSST 21, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    72.4%−3.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:18MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:02AUB 4th & 15 at AUB 8, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−2.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:14MSST 4th & 1 at AUB 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    19.2%−0.9
    56% to make
    Punt
    18.1%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:10MSST 4th & 15 at AUB 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−2.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:14AUB 4th & 4 at MSST 31, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.1%−0.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    93.5%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:01AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 23, up 14
    Close callPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:31MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:35AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 41, up 14
    Close callPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%−1.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:26AUB 4th & 12 at AUB 3, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−1.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:26MSST 4th & 2 at AUB 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    5.9%−0.4
    60% to make
    Punt
    3.3%−3.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:55MSST 4th & 8 at AUB 13, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    4.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MSST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:38AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:12AUB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:09AUB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:54MSST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2269% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
69.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 11 yds to the AUB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
69.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the AUB 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+15
69.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Caleb Burton III for 15 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
69.0%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
69.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 7 yds to the MSST 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 38
-5
69.0%
Auburn Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MSST 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+5
69.0%
THORNE, Payton pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HOOKS, Shane thrown to the MSU15. PENALTY MSU Offsides on PICKERING, Nathan enforced 5 yards from the MSU43 to the MSU38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+4
69.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for 4 yds to the MSST 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
69.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for 7 yds to the MSST 27Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+27
70.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Shane Hooks for 27 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 5:1830% → 32%
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
69.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 32 yds to the AUB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
69.3%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+17
69.3%
Lideatrick Griffin run for 17 yds to the AUB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
69.1%
Mike Wright run for 3 yds to the AUB 23Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+1
69.1%
Lideatrick Griffin run for 1 yd to the AUB 22Similar
Q1 11:38
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+5
69.3%
Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 5 yds to the AUB 17Similar
Q1 11:38
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+2
69.4%
Mike Wright run for 2 yds to the AUB 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
69.1%
Jeffery Pittman run for 5 yds to the AUB 10Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
69.1%
Mike Wright run for no gain to the AUB 10Similar
Q1 11:38
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
69.3%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+29
68.5%
Kyle Ferrie 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:0869% → 73%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
68.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Camden Brown for 6 yds to the AUB 31Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
69.1%
Payton Thorne run for 8 yds to the AUB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
69.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 6 yds to the AUB 45Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+10
69.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Malcolm Johnson Jr. for 10 yds to the MSST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
73.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 45 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:3729% → 28%
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
71.2%
Seth Davis run for 6 yds to the MSST 41Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+10
70.8%
WRIGHT, Mike pass deep to the left complete for 18 yards to THOMAS, Zavion caught at the AU41 and advanced to the AU41, out of bounds. PENALTY AU Holding on SIMPSON, Jaylin enforced 10 yards from the MSU41 to the AU49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
70.6%
Seth Davis run for 1 yd to the AUB 48Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+4
70.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 4 yds to the AUB 44Similar
Q1 4:12
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+1
70.7%
Jeffery Pittman run for 1 yd to the AUB 43Similar
Q1 1:35
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
72.2%
Andrew Osteen punt for 40 yds, downed at the AUB 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 52 yds · 4:3173% → 75%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+6
72.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the AUB 9Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 4
OWN 9
+6
72.5%
Robby Ashford run for 6 yds to the AUB 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
73.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the AUB 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+32
73.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 32 yds to the AUB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
74.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 8 yds to the MSST 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 44
-15
74.2%
THORNE, Payton pass to the right complete for 14 yards to HOOKS, Shane caught at the MSU30 and advanced to the MSU30, out of bounds. PENALTY AU Pass Interference on HOOKS, Shane enforced 15 yards to the AU41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 41
+11
73.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Brian Battie for 11 yds to the MSST 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+3
73.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Damari Alston for 3 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q2 12:04
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
75.0%
Oscar Chapman punt for 42 yds, downed at the MSST 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:4926% → 23%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
74.2%
Jeffery Pittman run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 2Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 11
OWN 2
+13
74.3%
Mike Wright run for 13 yds to the MSST 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
74.1%
Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 5 yds to the MSST 20Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+1
74.0%
Mike Wright run for 1 yd to the MSST 21Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 4
OWN 21
0
74.5%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
76.3%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 39 ydsSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
77.4%
THORNE, Payton pass deep to the left incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Ja'Varrius thrown to the MSU10. PENALTY MSU Offsides on ANDERSON, Deonte enforced 5 yards from the AU48 to the MSU47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 5
OPP 47
+10
77.5%
THORNE, Payton pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for BURTON, Caleb thrown to the MSU25. PENALTY MSU Holding on PRESTON JR., Shawn enforced 10 yards from the MSU47 to the MSU37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7FG
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:5778% → 80%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
77.5%
Damari Alston run for 5 yds to the MSST 32Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+6
77.5%
Payton Thorne run for 6 yds to the MSST 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
77.5%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
77.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 5 yds to the MSST 21Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 5
OPP 21
0
77.0%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:18
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+39
79.7%
Alex McPherson 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0021% → 20%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.2%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
79.3%
Jeffery Pittman run for 8 yds to the MSST 33Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
79.0%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:18
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
79.7%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 54 yds, downed at the AUB 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 2:1680% → 80%
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
80.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 11Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 12
OWN 11
+2
80.2%
Robby Ashford run for 2 yds to the AUB 13Similar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 10
OWN 13
-5
79.7%
Auburn Penalty, False Start (Dillon Wade) to the AUB 8Similar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 15
OWN 8
0
79.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the AUB 8Similar
Q2 4:02
4TH & 15
OWN 8
0
79.8%
Oscar Chapman punt for 44 yds, downed at the MSST 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:4821% → 19%
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
79.5%
Seth Davis run for 9 yds to the AUB 43Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+4
78.9%
Seth Davis run for 4 yds to the AUB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
79.3%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
79.3%
Mike Wright run for 7 yds to the AUB 32Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+2
81.0%
Mike Wright run for 2 yds to the AUB 30Similar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 1
OPP 30
-2
81.2%
Mike Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 1:0585% → 94%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
84.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the AUB 38Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
85.2%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+14
83.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 14 yds to the MSST 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
84.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 11 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
84.5%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+21
84.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 21 yds to the MSST 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
84.7%
Payton Thorne run for 9 yds to the MSST 7Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+7
93.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jeremiah Cobb for 7 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
92.1%
Kneel down by WRIGHT, Mike at MSU25 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 5:458% → 9%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-15
92.1%
Mississippi State Penalty, Personal Foul (Justin Robinson) to the MSST 17Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 20
OWN 17
-5
92.3%
Jeffery Pittman run for 5 yds to the MSST 22 Mississippi State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Freddie Roberson) to the MSST 10Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 27
OWN 10
+7
92.3%
Mike Wright run for 7 yds to the MSST 17Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 20
OWN 17
+10
92.4%
WRIGHT, Mike pass short to the right incomplete thrown to the MSU18; QB hurried by JAMES, DJ. PENALTY AU Holding on HARRIS, Marcus enforced 10 yards from the MSU17 to the MSU27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
92.1%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+12
92.3%
Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 12 yds to the MSST 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
91.8%
Jeffery Pittman run for 6 yds to the MSST 45Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
91.6%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+37
91.7%
Seth Davis run for 37 yds to the AUB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
90.9%
Seth Davis run for 2 yds to the AUB 16Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+2
90.9%
Mike Wright run for 2 yds to the AUB 14Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 6
OPP 14
-9
91.4%
Zavion Thomas run for a loss of 9 yards to the AUB 23Similar
Q3 9:10
4TH & 15
OPP 23
+40
91.2%
Kyle Ferrie 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14FG
13 plays · 44 yds · 5:5693% → 97%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
92.9%
Auburn Penalty, False Start (Kam Stutts) to the AUB 20Similar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+14
92.8%
Payton Thorne run for 14 yds to the AUB 34Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
93.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the AUB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
93.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 9 yds to the AUB 47Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 1
OWN 47
-3
93.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 3 yards to the AUB 44Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+5
93.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 5 yds to the AUB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
93.3%
Brian Battie run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 48Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+1
93.2%
Brian Battie run for 1 yd to the AUB 49Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+14
93.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for 14 yds to the MSST 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
93.3%
Damari Alston run for 1 yd to the MSST 36Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+1
93.3%
Payton Thorne run for 1 yd to the MSST 35Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+4
93.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Damari Alston for 4 yds to the MSST 31Similar
Q3 3:14
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+49
96.7%
Alex McPherson 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:203% → 12%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
96.8%
Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 19 yds to the MSST 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
96.6%
Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (Steven Losoya III) to the MSST 39Similar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 15
OWN 39
0
96.8%
Jeffery Pittman run for no gain to the MSST 39Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+22
96.8%
Jeffery Pittman run for 22 yds to the AUB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
96.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 1 yd to the AUB 38Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+11
96.6%
Mike Wright run for 11 yds to the AUB 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
97.7%
Mike Wright run for 13 yds to the AUB 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
88.5%
Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 14 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4993% → 93%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
93.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the AUB 17Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 7
OWN 17
0
93.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the AUB 17Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+6
93.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Camden Brown for 6 yds to the AUB 23Similar
Q4 13:01
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
93.1%
Oscar Chapman punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MSST 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:309% → 8%
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
90.8%
Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 32Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+3
91.4%
Mike Wright run for 3 yds to the MSST 35Similar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
91.0%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:31
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
92.0%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 33 yds, downed at the AUB 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5695% → 95%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
94.5%
Damari Alston run for 1 yd to the AUB 33Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+6
94.4%
Payton Thorne run for 6 yds to the AUB 39Similar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+2
94.5%
Damari Alston run for 2 yds to the AUB 41Similar
Q4 9:35
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
95.3%
Oscar Chapman punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19INT
7 plays · 34 yds · 1:527% → 8%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
92.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 15 yds to the MSST 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
92.1%
Seth Davis run for 3 yds to the MSST 38Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-5
91.7%
Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (John Lewis) to the MSST 33Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
92.6%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+21
92.8%
Mike Wright pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 21 yds to the AUB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
91.5%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
92.1%
Mike Wright pass intercepted by Zion PuckettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1796% → 96%
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
95.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the AUB 5Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 10
OWN 5
0
95.5%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 12
OWN 3
0
96.4%
Payton Thorne run for no gain to the AUB 3Similar
Q4 6:26
4TH & 12
OWN 3
0
96.4%
Oscar Chapman punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21DOWNS
11 plays · 37 yds · 3:314% → 3%
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
50
-1
95.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 49Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+15
95.7%
Mike Wright pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 15 yds to the AUB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
95.6%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+1
95.6%
Mike Wright run for 1 yd to the AUB 35Similar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+7
95.7%
Mike Wright pass complete to Creed Whittemore for 7 yds to the AUB 28Similar
Q4 6:26
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+2
95.5%
Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the AUB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
95.0%
Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 11 yds to the AUB 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
95.0%
Mike Wright pass complete to Jeffery Pittman for 2 yds to the AUB 13Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
95.0%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:26
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
95.4%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 8
OPP 13
0
97.2%
Mike Wright pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22END OF GAME
9 plays · 63 yds · 2:5598% → 99%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+17
97.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 17 yds to the AUB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+50
98.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 50 yds to the MSST 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-6
98.6%
Payton Thorne run for a loss of 6 yards to the MSST 26Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 16
OPP 26
-9
98.6%
run for a loss of 9 yards to the MSST 35Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 25
OPP 35
+15
98.6%
THORNE, Payton pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for KELLY, Omari thrown to the MSU2. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on RICHARDSON, Decamerion enforced 15 yards to the MSU20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
98.7%
[NH] Kneel down by THORNE, Payton at MSU22 (team loss of 2).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 22
0
98.8%
[NH] Kneel down by THORNE, Payton at MSU24 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:09
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jeremiah Cobb for 7 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
+9.2
TD · Q4 14:54
Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 14 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
-9.2
FG · Q3 3:14
Alex McPherson 49 yd FG GOOD
+3.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com