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NMSU

New Mexico State 27 at Louisiana Tech 24

LT
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 24, 2023 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:17 · Jacob Fields run for 1 yd to the LT 46 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 150Home team on offense−14.6Pregame prior+0.1Garbage-time factor−8.7Score differential−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:51: Diego Pavia run for 19 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +15.3 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  2. TD · Q3 6:25: Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 8 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +19.7 pts (now 52%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:59: Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +18.1 pts (now 72%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:13: Hank Bachmeier pass complete to John Locke for 3 yds for a TD (Hank Bachmeier pass to Smoke Harris for Two-Point Conversion) — LT win probability +28.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 5:16: Ethan Albertson 31 yd FG GOOD — NMSU win probability +17.1 pts (now 71%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 7 of 7NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:27LT 4th & 5 at LT 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:09NMSU 4th & 2 at NMSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:00LT 4th & 19 at NMSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−0.3
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:58NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:41NMSU 4th & 6 at LT 30, down 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.0%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:33NMSU 4th & 1 at LT 22, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    22.5%−1.3
    72% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−4.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:25LT 4th & 1 at NMSU 42, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    69.3%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    68.5%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:05NMSU 4th & 2 at LT 14, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    32.4%−1.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    22.8%−10.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:07NMSU 4th & 7 at LT 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    45.0%−3.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    47.0%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:32LT 4th & 7 at LT 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.5%−1.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:16NMSU 4th & 9 at LT 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−2.9
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    23.2%−23.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:34LT 4th & 1 at LT 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.0%−10.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:15NMSU 4th & 8 at NMSU 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−1.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:17LT 4th & 1 at LT 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.6%−12.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:25LT 4th & 1 at NMSU 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    21.4%−2.7
    25% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−11.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 14:56LT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:47LT Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:51NMSU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:25NMSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:59NMSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:13LT Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    49.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:3355% → 56%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
55.2%
Hank Bachmeier run for 18 yds to the LT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
55.2%
Dakota Williams run for 4 yds to the LT 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-4
55.2%
Dakota Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the LT 43 Dakota Williams fumbled, recovered by LT Hank BachmeierSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+5
55.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Eli Finley for 5 yds to the LT 48Similar
Q1 12:27
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
55.5%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the NMSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1845% → 44%
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
55.5%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the NMSU 17Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+3
55.4%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the NMSU 20Similar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+1
55.5%
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the NMSU 21Similar
Q1 11:09
4TH & 2
OWN 21
0
55.7%
Zach Haynes punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 3FG
6 plays · 38 yds · 3:0856% → 56%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+47
55.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 47 yds to the NMSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
56.1%
Charvis Thornton run for 3 yds to the NMSU 13Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
56.1%
LATULAS, Dedrick rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the NMS8, out of bounds. PENALTY LAT Personal Foul on GILBERT, Jerren declined LAT Personal Foul on DELFIN, Abraham enforced 15 yards from the NMS13 to the NMS28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 22
OPP 28
-2
55.9%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Keyshaun Elliott and Sterling Webb for a loss of 2 yards to the NMSU 30Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 24
OPP 30
+5
55.8%
Charvis Thornton run for 5 yds to the NMSU 25Similar
Q1 8:00
4TH & 19
OPP 25
+42
56.2%
Jacob Barnes 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0243% → 43%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
56.7%
Jonathan Brady run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMSU 21Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+10
56.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 10 yds to the NMSU 31Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
56.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 3 yds to the NMSU 34Similar
Q1 5:58
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
57.3%
Zach Haynes punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 5TD
13 plays · 72 yds · 6:0257% → 63%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
56.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 9 yds to the LT 37Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 1
OWN 37
0
57.4%
Jacob Fields run for no gain to the LT 37Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+3
57.1%
Charvis Thornton run for 3 yds to the LT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
57.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
50
+1
57.7%
Charvis Thornton run for 1 yd to the NMSU 49Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+16
57.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 16 yds to the NMSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
57.0%
QB Keeper BACHMEIER, Hank rush up the middle for a gain of 10 yards to the LAT37, out of bounds, 1ST DOWN. PENALTY NMS Holding on ELLIOTT, Keyshaun LAT Illegal Block in the Back on THORNTON, Charvis , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
58.7%
Charvis Thornton run for 4 yds to the NMSU 29Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+9
58.7%
Hank Bachmeier run for 9 yds to the NMSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
58.8%
Dedrick Latulas run for 7 yds to the NMSU 13Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+5
58.8%
Keldric Moody run for 5 yds to the NMSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
59.2%
Keldric Moody run for 7 yds to the NMSU 1Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.3%
Hank Bachmeier run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Barnes PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6FG
7 plays · 45 yds · 3:1537% → 40%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
62.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 26 yds to the LT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
61.7%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:25
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+15
62.0%
PAVIA, Diego sacked for a loss of 6 yards at the NMS45 (WILLIAMS, Rason). PENALTY LAT Personal Foul on WILLIAMS, Rason enforced 15 yards from the LAT49 to the LAT34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
61.1%
Jonathan Brady run for no gain to the LT 34Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
61.9%
Monte Watkins run for no gain to the LT 34Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+4
63.0%
Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the LT 30Similar
Q2 11:41
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+47
60.0%
Ethan Albertson 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 7TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5463% → 76%
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
62.5%
run for 2 yds to the LT 27Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
62.5%
Charvis Thornton run for 2 yds to the LT 29Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
61.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cyrus Allen for 9 yds to the LT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
63.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 7 yds to the LT 45Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+5
63.8%
Hank Bachmeier run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
50
+28
64.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 28 yds to the NMSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
65.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Keldric Moody for 10 yds to the NMSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
65.0%
Keldric Moody run for 6 yds to the NMSU 6Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+3
65.0%
Hank Bachmeier run for 3 yds to the NMSU 3Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+1
64.4%
Jack Turner run for 1 yd to the NMSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
65.1%
Dakota Williams run for 1 yd to the NMSU 1Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.6%
Hank Bachmeier run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 4:5627% → 41%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
72.7%
Jamoni Jones run for 24 yds to the NMSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
72.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 10 yds to the LT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
71.8%
Star Thomas run for 10 yds to the LT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
71.7%
Star Thomas run for 7 yds to the LT 24Similar
Q2 3:53
2ND & 3
OPP 24
0
71.8%
Jamoni Jones run for no gain to the LT 24Similar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+2
73.2%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the LT 22Similar
Q2 2:33
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+3
74.5%
Eli Stowers run for 3 yds to the LT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
59.2%
Diego Pavia run for 19 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9MISSED FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 1:4067% → 69%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
67.0%
Charvis Thornton run for 2 yds to the LT 27Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+22
67.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 22 yds to the LT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
69.1%
Charvis Thornton run for 4 yds to the NMSU 47Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
69.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+5
68.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 5 yds to the NMSU 42Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+2
68.1%
Keldric Moody run for 2 yds to the NMSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
69.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Marlion Jackson for 11 yds to the NMSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
69.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+46
69.3%
Jacob Barnes 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
66.5%
[NHSG] Kneel down by PAVIA, Diego at NMS29 (team loss of 0), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 8:3535% → 52%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.0%
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the NMSU 26Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
65.4%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the NMSU 29Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
66.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 10 yds to the NMSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
64.4%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+26
64.8%
Diego Pavia run for 26 yds to the LT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
61.4%
Star Thomas run for 6 yds to the LT 29Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+3
61.0%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the LT 26Similar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+4
62.7%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the LT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
61.3%
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the LT 21Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
61.3%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+7
63.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 7 yds to the LT 14Similar
Q3 9:05
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+7
64.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 7 yds to the LT 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
61.4%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 2 yards to the LT 9Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
61.6%
Makhilyn Young run for 1 yd to the LT 8Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
47.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 8 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12FUMBLE
3 plays · -15 yds · 0:5354% → 53%
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
53.8%
Louisiana Tech Penalty, False Start (Jerren Gilbert) to the LT 17Similar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 15
OWN 17
-4
53.6%
Charvis Thornton run for a loss of 4 yards to the LT 13Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 19
OWN 13
-6
53.4%
Hank Bachmeier sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the LT 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13TD
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:1854% → 72%
Q3 5:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
46.1%
Jamoni Jones run for 6 yds to the LT 1Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
28.0%
Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 4:3735% → 65%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
34.7%
(04:50) LATULAS, Dedrick rush to the right for a gain of 9 yards to the NMS46 (EARLY, Dylan). PENALTY LAT Holding on HARRIS, Smoke enforced 10 yards from the LAT45 to the LAT35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+14
31.6%
Keldric Moody run for 14 yds to the LT 49Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+5
35.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Eli Finley for 5 yds to the NMSU 46Similar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
35.6%
Keldric Moody run for no gain to the NMSU 46Similar
Q3 2:40
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+15
32.9%
New Mexico State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Andre Seldon) to the NMSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
37.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Jacob Fields for 12 yds to the NMSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
37.0%
Dedrick Latulas run for 2 yds to the NMSU 13Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+10
36.4%
Keldric Moody run for 10 yds to the NMSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
65.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to John Locke for 3 yds for a TD (Hank Bachmeier pass to Smoke Harris for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15DOWNS
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:0646% → 48%
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
53.8%
Monte Watkins run for 8 yds to the NMSU 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
51.3%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
52.9%
Monte Watkins run for 7 yds to the NMSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
51.0%
Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the NMSU 44Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-10
49.9%
New Mexico State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Chris Bellamy) to the NMSU 40Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
52.0%
PAVIA, Diego pass deep to the left incomplete intended for HUDSON, Trent thrown to the LAT20. PENALTY LAT Pass Interference on ROBERTS, Willie enforced 15 yards to the LAT45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
48.6%
Monte Watkins run for 3 yds to the LT 42Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
48.6%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
49.2%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:07
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
52.5%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3262% → 59%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
62.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-5
60.6%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Keyshaun Elliott for a loss of 5 yards to the LT 37Similar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 15
OWN 37
+8
57.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Charvis Thornton for 8 yds to the LT 45Similar
Q4 10:32
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
58.7%
Blake Ochsendorf punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the NMSU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17FG
12 plays · 81 yds · 5:1645% → 71%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+10
55.2%
Star Thomas run for 10 yds to the NMSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
54.1%
(09:51) STOWERS, Eli rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the NMS18 (ROBERTS, Willie). PENALTY NMS Personal Foul on PAVIA, Diego enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the NMS15 to the NMS8 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 17
OWN 8
+9
55.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 9 yds to the NMSU 17Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 8
OWN 17
-5
54.1%
(08:44) PAVIA, Diego pass to the left incomplete intended for THOMAS, Star thrown to the NMS25. PENALTY NMS Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on YARRO, Canaan enforced 5 yards from the NMS17 to the NMS12 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 13
OWN 12
+40
54.4%
Star Thomas run for 40 yds to the LT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
48.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 5 yds to the LT 43Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+2
47.8%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the LT 41Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+26
47.5%
Monte Watkins run for 26 yds to the LT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
44.1%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the LT 14Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
44.0%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 9
OPP 14
0
46.6%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:16
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+31
29.5%
Ethan Albertson 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18FUMBLE
10 plays · 40 yds · 2:3440% → 46%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
39.9%
Charvis Thornton run for 4 yds to the LT 30Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+10
40.0%
Charvis Thornton run for 10 yds to the LT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
42.9%
Hank Bachmeier run for 3 yds to the LT 43Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
43.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+6
39.7%
New Mexico State Penalty, personal foul (6 Yards) to the LT 49Similar
Q4 3:34
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+6
42.5%
Keldric Moody run for 6 yds to the NMSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
45.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 15 yds to the NMSU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
49.7%
Keldric Moody run for 5 yds to the NMSU 25Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 5
OPP 25
-9
46.3%
Hank Bachmeier sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the NMSU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:1477% → 77%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
23.0%
Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the NMSU 35Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+1
21.8%
Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the NMSU 36Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
21.8%
Monte Watkins run for no gain to the NMSU 36Similar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
23.0%
Zach Haynes punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 19 yds · 1:4442% → 6%
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
41.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Charvis Thornton for 3 yds to the LT 39Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
30.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+6
27.7%
Jacob Fields run for 6 yds to the LT 45Similar
Q4 1:17
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+1
25.7%
Jacob Fields run for 1 yd to the LT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
28.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
24.8%
Jacob Fields run for 2 yds to the LT 48Similar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+7
25.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Smoke Harris for 7 yds to the NMSU 45Similar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
21.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
5.5%
New Mexico State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Malachi McLean) to the NMSU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21END OF GAME
1 play · -15 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 25
OWN 30
0
6.3%
[SG] Kneel down by PAVIA, Diego at NMS30 (team loss of 0), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:13
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to John Locke for 3 yds for a TD (Hank Bachmeier pass to Smoke Harris for Two-Point Conversion)
+28.9
TD · Q3 6:25
Diego Pavia pass complete to Trent Hudson for 8 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)
-19.7
TD · Q3 4:59
Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)
-18.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com