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PSU

Penn State 12 at Ohio State 20

OSU
2023 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2023 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:41 · Jayden Fielding 45 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 173Home team on offense+30.8Pregame prior+0.6Garbage-time factor+14.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+12.5Score differential+12.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+7.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:31: Miyan Williams 2 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick) — OSU win probability +7.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:38: KeAndre Lambert-Smith sack for a loss of 8 yards to the PSU 46 — PSU win probability +7.4 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. FG · Q4 8:59: Jayden Fielding 37 yd FG GOOD — OSU win probability +9.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:07: Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 18 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK) — OSU win probability +5.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:29: Drew Allar pass complete to Kaden Saunders for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — PSU win probability +8.4 pts (now 10%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10PSU made the numbers' call on 11 of 14
  1. Q1 14:26PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:49OSU 4th & 10 at PSU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    61.5%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:20PSU 4th & 7 at PSU 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:51OSU 4th & 13 at OSU 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:15PSU 4th & 7 at OSU 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    35.6%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:07OSU 4th & 4 at OSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:01PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:11OSU 4th & 4 at OSU 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:48PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:16PSU 4th & 6 at OSU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−4.8
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:43OSU 4th & 8 at PSU 38, up 4
    Close callPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    64.9%−0.3
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:42PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:43OSU 4th & 9 at OSU 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:35PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:17OSU 4th & 27 at OSU 4, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−6.1
    5% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:43PSU 4th & 8 at PSU 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−1.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:12OSU 4th & 2 at PSU 2, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    68.9%−2.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−14.2
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:44PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 11, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%−1.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:39PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:59OSU 4th & 4 at PSU 19, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.9%−0.6
    77% to make
    Punt
    58.7%−14.9
    average punt
  21. Q4 7:17PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.8%−1.4
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:04PSU 4th & 30 at PSU 43, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:41OSU 4th & 4 at PSU 27, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.1%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    95.8%−1.5
    average punt
  24. Q4 1:45PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.3%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2PSU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q2 7:31OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 4:07OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 0:29PSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    6.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:2436% → 36%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
63.9%
Kaytron Allen run for 6 yds to the PSU 31Similar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
63.9%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:32
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
63.9%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Theo JohnsonSimilar
Q1 14:26
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
63.9%
Riley Thompson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jayden Ballard at the OSU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 3:2564% → 64%
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
63.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 13 yds to the OSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
63.9%
Chip Trayanum run for 5 yds to the OSU 46Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+2
64.0%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Cade Stover for 2 yds to the OSU 48Similar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+8
64.0%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 8 yds to the PSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
64.1%
Chip Trayanum run for 3 yds to the PSU 41Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+7
64.1%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 7 yds to the PSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+19
64.2%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Chip Trayanum for 19 yds to the PSU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
64.3%
Kyle McCord pass incomplete to Marvin Harrison Jr.Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
64.3%
Kyle McCord pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
64.1%
Kyle McCord pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:49
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+33
64.2%
Jayden Fielding 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:1036% → 36%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
64.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 12 yds to the PSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
64.0%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
64.0%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PSU 40Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
64.2%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q1 9:20
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+4
64.5%
Riley Thompson punt for 38 yds , Jayden Ballard returns for 4 yds to the OSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2064% → 64%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
64.2%
Chip Trayanum run for 2 yds to the OSU 28Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
64.1%
Kyle McCord pass incomplete to Marvin Harrison Jr.Similar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 8
OWN 28
-5
63.8%
Kyle McCord sacked by Johnny Dixon for a loss of 5 yards to the OSU 23Similar
Q1 7:51
4TH & 13
OWN 23
+15
63.6%
Jesse Mirco punt for 54 yds , Daequan Hardy returns for 15 yds to the PSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5FG
6 plays · 39 yds · 2:3036% → 37%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+20
64.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 20 yds to the OSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
63.6%
Nicholas Singleton run for 16 yds to the OSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-3
63.2%
Drew Allar sacked by Sonny Styles for a loss of 3 yards to the OSU 29Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 13
OPP 29
0
63.4%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 13
OPP 29
+6
64.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for 6 yds to the OSU 23Similar
Q1 5:15
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+40
62.8%
Alex Felkins 40 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:5863% → 63%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
63.1%
Miyan Williams run for 4 yds to the OSU 26Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+10
63.2%
Miyan Williams run for 10 yds to the OSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
63.4%
Kyle McCord pass incomplete to Marvin Harrison Jr.Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
63.2%
Kyle McCord pass incomplete to Carnell TateSimilar
Q1 3:43
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+6
62.7%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Carnell Tate for 6 yds to the OSU 42Similar
Q1 3:07
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
62.8%
Jesse Mirco punt for 34 yds, downed at the PSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:5437% → 38%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
62.7%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 12 yds to the PSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
61.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the PSU 38Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
61.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Harrison Wallace III for 7 yds to the PSU 45Similar
Q1 1:26
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
61.2%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:01
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
61.9%
Riley Thompson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jayden Ballard at the OSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:3964% → 63%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
63.5%
Miyan Williams run for 3 yds to the OSU 16Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+15
63.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Carnell Tate for 15 yds to the OSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
63.8%
Miyan Williams run for 7 yds to the OSU 38Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 38
0
64.8%
Kyle McCord pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 3
OWN 38
-1
64.2%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Miyan Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the OSU 37Similar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
63.1%
Jesse Mirco punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Daequan Hardy at the PSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0838% → 37%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
62.4%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the PSU 15Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+2
62.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the PSU 17Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 6
OWN 17
0
62.7%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:48
4TH & 6
OWN 17
+10
63.3%
Riley Thompson punt for 54 yds , Jayden Ballard returns for 10 yds to the OSU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10TD
15 plays · 61 yds · 5:0864% → 74%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
64.3%
Xavier Johnson run for 7 yds to the OSU 46Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+6
65.0%
Miyan Williams run for 6 yds to the PSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
65.3%
Miyan Williams run for 12 yds to the PSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
65.4%
Miyan Williams run for no gain to the PSU 36Similar
Q2 10:56
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+9
65.4%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Cade Stover for 9 yds to the PSU 27Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
65.3%
Miyan Williams run for 2 yds to the PSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
66.2%
Miyan Williams run for 4 yds to the PSU 21Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 6
OPP 21
-5
66.2%
Ohio State Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the PSU 26Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
66.2%
Kyle McCord pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+10
65.2%
Penn State Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the PSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
66.3%
Miyan Williams run for 1 yd to the PSU 15Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 9
OPP 15
-1
66.3%
Miyan Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 16Similar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+12
65.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 12 yds to the PSU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
66.2%
Devin Brown run for no gain to the PSU 4 for a 1ST down Penn State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (2 Yards) to the PSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
73.5%
Miyan Williams 2 Yd Run (Jayden Fielding Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11FG
8 plays · 51 yds · 3:0829% → 34%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.9%
Nicholas Singleton run for 2 yds to the PSU 27Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
71.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Tyler Warren for 11 yds to the PSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+34
70.3%
Drew Allar pass complete to Theo Johnson for 34 yds to the OSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
68.1%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
68.3%
Drew Allar run for 5 yds to the OSU 23Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 5
OPP 23
-1
69.4%
Nicholas Singleton run for a loss of 1 yard to the OSU 24Similar
Q2 4:16
4TH & 6
OPP 24
+41
66.3%
Alex Felkins 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:2167% → 68%
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
66.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 35 yds to the PSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
69.2%
Miyan Williams run for 2 yds to the PSU 38Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
69.6%
Kyle McCord pass incomplete to Julian FlemingSimilar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 8
OPP 38
0
68.9%
Kyle McCord pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:43
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
67.5%
Jesse Mirco punt for 32 yds, downed at the PSU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:4832% → 31%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+8
68.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 8 yds to the PSU 14Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 2
OWN 14
+2
67.6%
Kaytron Allen run for 2 yds to the PSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
67.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 15 yds to the PSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
67.3%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
67.6%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Tyler WarrenSimilar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
68.5%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:42
4TH & 10
OWN 31
0
69.1%
Riley Thompson punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
67.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OSU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0867% → 65%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
66.6%
Miyan Williams run for a loss of 5 yards to the OSU 20Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+6
66.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 6 yds to the OSU 26Similar
Q3 13:49
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
65.3%
Kyle McCord pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:43
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
64.6%
Jesse Mirco punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:5434% → 34%
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
65.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 11 yds to the PSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
64.1%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the PSU 45Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+5
63.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 2
50
-3
63.0%
Nicholas Singleton run for a loss of 3 yards to the PSU 47Similar
Q3 11:35
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
65.8%
Riley Thompson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jayden Ballard at the OSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · -3 yds · 3:5466% → 67%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
65.9%
Miyan Williams run for 4 yds to the OSU 11Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+2
68.8%
Miyan Williams run for 2 yds to the OSU 13Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+8
67.7%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 8 yds to the OSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
69.3%
Ohio State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OSU 16Similar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+2
69.2%
Miyan Williams run for 2 yds to the OSU 18Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 13
OWN 18
-9
69.1%
Ohio State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-9 Yards) to the OSU 9Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 22
OWN 9
-5
69.0%
Kyle McCord sacked by Adisa Isaac and Kobe King for a loss of 5 yards to the OSU 4Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 27
OWN 4
0
67.9%
Miyan Williams run for no gain to the OSU 4Similar
Q3 7:17
4TH & 27
OWN 4
0
67.3%
Jesse Mirco punt for 72 yds, downed at the PSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2532% → 29%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
68.3%
Kaytron Allen run for a loss of 3 yards to the PSU 21Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+5
68.9%
Drew Allar run for 5 yds to the PSU 26Similar
Q3 5:52
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
69.7%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:43
4TH & 8
OWN 26
+38
70.7%
Riley Thompson punt for 38 yds , Jayden Ballard returns for a loss of 1 yard to the OSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 63 yds · 3:2071% → 72%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
70.5%
Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd to the OSU 36Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+16
70.5%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 16 yds to the PSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
73.1%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Julian Fleming for 9 yds to the PSU 39Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+30
73.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Cade Stover for 30 yds to the PSU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
74.8%
Chip Trayanum run for 3 yds to the PSU 6Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
74.9%
Devin Brown run for 5 yds to the PSU 1Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
73.7%
Miyan Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 2Similar
Q3 2:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
72.1%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Carnell Tate for no gain to the PSU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20FUMBLE
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1431% → 29%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
68.7%
Nicholas Singleton run for 3 yds to the PSU 5Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+6
69.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Nicholas Singleton for 6 yds to the PSU 11Similar
Q3 0:54
3RD & 1
OWN 11
0
70.0%
Drew Allar pass incomplete to Nicholas SingletonSimilar
Q3 0:44
4TH & 1
OWN 11
0
70.9%
Riley Thompson punt for 40 yds , Julian Fleming returns for no gain to the PSU 48 Julian Fleming fumbled, recovered by PSU Tyler ElsdonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:5937% → 31%
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-8
63.5%
KeAndre Lambert-Smith sack for a loss of 8 yards to the PSU 46Similar
Q3 0:10
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+5
66.1%
Ohio State Penalty, Offside (5 Yards) to the OSU 49Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 7
OPP 49
-8
62.9%
Drew Allar sacked by JT Tuimoloau for a loss of 8 yards to the PSU 43Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 15
OWN 43
+5
68.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Theo Johnson for 5 yds to the PSU 48Similar
Q4 13:39
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
69.2%
Riley Thompson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jayden Ballard at the OSU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 22FG
10 plays · 71 yds · 4:1471% → 86%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-3
71.3%
Chip Trayanum run for a loss of 3 yards to the OSU 7Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 13
OWN 7
+28
69.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 28 yds to the OSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+29
72.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Cade Stover for 29 yds to the PSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
75.9%
Chip Trayanum run for 5 yds to the PSU 31Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+5
76.4%
Chip Trayanum run for 5 yds to the PSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
76.6%
Chip Trayanum run for 1 yd to the PSU 25Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+6
76.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 6 yds to the PSU 19Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
76.4%
Kyle McCord pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:59
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+37
86.0%
Jayden Fielding 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2321% → 17%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
79.3%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PSU 40Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
79.7%
Kaytron Allen run for 3 yds to the PSU 43Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
81.4%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:17
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
83.5%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 24TD
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:4890% → 98%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
89.8%
Penn State Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the PSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
90.6%
Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the PSU 31Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 13
OPP 31
+11
90.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 11 yds to the PSU 20Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+3
90.2%
Miyan Williams run for 3 yds to the PSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
90.9%
Miyan Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the PSU 18Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 11
OPP 18
0
92.4%
Kyle McCord pass incomplete to Julian FlemingSimilar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 11
OPP 18
+18
98.3%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Marvin Harrison Jr. for 18 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25DOWNS
11 plays · 3 yds · 0:515% → 4%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
94.8%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
95.2%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:41
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+18
95.4%
Drew Allar run for 3 yds to the PSU 33 for a 1ST down Ohio State Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the PSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
94.6%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+15
94.6%
Allar, Drew pass incomplete, PENALTY OHIOST roughing passer 15 yards to the OHIOST37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-15
94.4%
Drew Allar pass incomplete Penn State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-15 Yards) to the PSU 48Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 25
OWN 48
-5
95.3%
Penn State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PSU 43Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 30
OWN 43
0
95.4%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 30
OWN 43
0
95.5%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:04
4TH & 30
OWN 43
-10
95.7%
Drew Allar sacked by Kenyatta Jackson Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the PSU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 26MISSED FG
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:0699% → 99%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
98.8%
Miyan Williams run for no gain to the PSU 33Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
98.8%
Miyan Williams run for 3 yds to the PSU 30Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+3
99.0%
Miyan Williams run for 3 yds to the PSU 27Similar
Q4 2:41
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+45
99.0%
Jayden Fielding 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27TD
13 plays · 73 yds · 2:071% → 10%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
98.6%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+9
98.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 9 yds to the PSU 36Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 1
OWN 36
0
98.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for no gain to the PSU 36Similar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+9
98.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Dante Cephas for 9 yds to the PSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+19
98.5%
Drew Allar pass complete to Dante Cephas for 19 yds to the OSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
98.2%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+17
98.2%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaden Saunders for 17 yds to the OSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
98.0%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaytron Allen for 4 yds to the OSU 15Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
98.0%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+7
98.1%
Drew Allar pass complete to Liam Clifford for 7 yds to the OSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
98.0%
Drew Allar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
89.6%
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaden Saunders for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 8:59
Jayden Fielding 37 yd FG GOOD
+9.5
TD · Q4 0:29
Drew Allar pass complete to Kaden Saunders for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
-8.4
KEY PLAY · Q3 0:38
KeAndre Lambert-Smith sack for a loss of 8 yards to the PSU 46
-7.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com