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MICH

Michigan 49 at Michigan State 0

MSU
2023 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2023 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:54 · Ryan Eckley punt for 49 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.5+29.80−29.8−59.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Home team on offense−7.0Pregame prior−42.7Score differential−2.9Garbage-time factor−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:55: J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 25 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — MICH win probability +0.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:44: J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 22 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — MICH win probability +1.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. PUNT · Q2 9:41: Ryan Eckley punt for 48 yds — MICH win probability +3.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:54: J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 22 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK) — MICH win probability +0.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:49: Mike Sainristil 72 Yd Interception Return (James Turner Kick) — MICH win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10MICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 4:47MSU 4th & 2 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.4%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:54MSU 4th & 15 at MSU 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:41MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:54MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 30, up 21
    Close callPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:53MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 21, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:39MSU 4th & 17 at MSU 31, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:49MSU 4th & 7 at MICH 42, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%−0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:50MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 21, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:16MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 34, down 42
    Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:45MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 21, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:37MSU 4th & 15 at MICH 44, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:20MSU 4th & 15 at MICH 34, down 42
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:20MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 29, up 42
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 8:50MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:55MICH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:44MICH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:54MICH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:49MICH Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:44MICH Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:08MICH Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1TD
14 plays · 84 yds · 6:0595% → 94%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
4.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 7 yds to the MICH 23Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+10
4.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Blake Corum for 10 yds to the MICH 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
4.8%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the MICH 34Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 34
-5
4.8%
Michigan Penalty, False Start (Blake Corum) to the MICH 29Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 14
OWN 29
0
4.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 14
OWN 29
+21
5.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to AJ Barner for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
50
+11
5.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 11 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
5.4%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MSU 35Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+2
5.4%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MSU 33Similar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+25
5.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 25 yds to the MSU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
5.4%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MSU 5Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
5.4%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MSU 1Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
5.8%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2DOWNS
9 plays · 26 yds · 4:036% → 7%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
5.9%
Nathan Carter run for 2 yds to the MSU 27Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
5.9%
Nathan Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSU 25Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+17
5.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Nathan Carter for 17 yds to the MSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
6.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tre Mosley for 2 yds to the MSU 44Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-10
6.0%
HOUSER, Katin pass short to the right complete for 3 yards to BERGER, Jalen caught at the MSU47 and advanced to the MSU47 (COLSON, Junior). PENALTY MSU Holding on CARR, Maliq enforced 10 yards from the MSU44 to the MSU34 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 18
OWN 34
+3
5.9%
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the MSU 37Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 15
OWN 37
+13
5.8%
Katin Houser pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:47
4TH & 2
50
+1
6.9%
Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MICH 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 2:5293% → 94%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
6.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to AJ Barner for 15 yds to the MSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-4
6.6%
Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 4 yards to the MSU 40Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+1
6.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to AJ Barner for 1 yd to the MSU 39Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+14
6.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 14 yds to the MSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
5.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 25 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:016% → 6%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.5%
Nathan Carter run for no gain to the MSU 25Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
5.5%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:55
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
5.4%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:04
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-5
5.5%
ECKLEY, Ryan punt 54 yards to the UM21, fair catch by MORRIS, Tyler, clock 01:04. PENALTY Before the snap, MSU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the MSU25 to the MSU20. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:54
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
5.5%
Ryan Eckley punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 5:1094% → 96%
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
6.1%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MICH 36Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
6.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+15
6.3%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 15 yds to the MSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
6.1%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the MSU 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+5
6.0%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
6.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+11
6.1%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to AJ Barner for 11 yds to the MSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
6.0%
Donovan Edwards run for 9 yds to the MSU 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+5
6.0%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the MSU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-8
6.0%
J.J. McCarthy sacked by Aaron Brule for a loss of 8 yards to the MSU 22Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 18
OPP 22
+22
4.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 22 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:037% → 4%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.3%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
7.3%
Nathan Carter run for 6 yds to the MSU 31Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
7.0%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:41
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
3.6%
Ryan Eckley punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4796% → 96%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
4.3%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the MICH 26Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+4
4.3%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the MICH 30Similar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 1
OWN 30
0
4.4%
J.J. McCarthy run for no gain to the MICH 30Similar
Q2 7:54
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
4.5%
Tommy Doman punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:014% → 3%
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
3.8%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+3
3.8%
Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 21Similar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
3.7%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:53
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
3.4%
Ryan Eckley punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tyler Morris at the MSU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 3:5996% → 97%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
3.6%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to AJ Barner for 7 yds to the MSU 41Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+2
3.5%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MSU 39Similar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
3.6%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the MSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
3.6%
Donovan Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSU 38Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+16
3.6%
J.J. McCarthy run for 16 yds to the MSU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
3.6%
Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the MSU 22Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+22
2.7%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 22 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 1:151% → 1%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
1.2%
Katin Houser run for 6 yds to the MSU 31Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
1.0%
Katin Houser pass complete to Jaren Mangham for 7 yds to the MSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
1.2%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
1.1%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tyrell Henry for 2 yds to the MSU 40Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 8
OWN 40
-9
1.2%
Katin Houser sacked by Josaiah Stewart for a loss of 9 yards to the MSU 31Similar
Q2 1:39
4TH & 17
OWN 31
0
1.2%
Ryan Eckley punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11Uncategorized
12 plays · 76 yds · 1:3998% → 99%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
1.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 8 yds to the MICH 28Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
2.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 3 yds to the MICH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
1.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+11
1.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to AJ Barner for 11 yds to the MICH 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
1.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
1.8%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+20
1.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 20 yds to the MSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
1.5%
Donovan Edwards run for 6 yds to the MSU 32Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+22
1.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to AJ Barner for 22 yds to the MSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
1.4%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 6 yds to the MSU 4Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
1.3%
Michigan Penalty, False Start (Donovan Edwards) to the MSU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12INT TD
12 plays · 33 yds · 5:112% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
1.5%
Nathan Carter run for 5 yds to the MSU 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-4
1.4%
Katin Houser run for a loss of 4 yards to the MSU 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
1.4%
Katin Houser pass complete to Maliq Carr for 11 yds to the MSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
1.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 8 yds to the MSU 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+10
1.4%
Nathan Carter run for 10 yds to the MICH 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
1.7%
Michigan State Penalty, Illegal Snap on SAMAC, Nick enforced (Nick Samac) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
50
0
1.6%
Nathan Carter run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
50
-5
1.5%
HOUSER, Katin pass short to the left complete for 5 yards to FOSTER JR., Montorie caught at the UM47 and advanced to the UM45 (PAIGE, Makari). PENALTY MSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass enforced 5 yards from the UM50 to the MSU45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 45
+6
1.5%
Nathan Carter run for 6 yds to the MICH 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 49
+7
1.5%
Katin Houser pass complete to Harold Joiner III for 7 yds to the MICH 42Similar
Q3 9:49
4TH & 7
OPP 42
-72
0.8%
Mike Sainristil 72 Yd Interception Return (James Turner Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:531% → 1%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
0.7%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the MSU 17Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+7
0.6%
Katin Houser pass complete to Tre Mosley for 7 yds to the MSU 24Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 1
OWN 24
-3
0.7%
Nathan Carter run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSU 21Similar
Q3 7:50
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
0.6%
Ryan Eckley punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Cornelius Johnson at the MICH 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:0699% → 100%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
0.7%
Michigan State Penalty, Illegal use of the hands on HARMON, Derrick enforced (Derrick Harmon) to the MSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
0.7%
Michigan State Penalty, Personal Foul (Dillon Tatum) to the MSU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
0.6%
Michigan State Penalty, Face mask (0 yards) (Derrick Harmon) to the MSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
0.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to AJ Barner for 11 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.3%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.3%
Katin Houser pass complete to Nathan Carter for 8 yds to the MSU 33Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
0.3%
Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MSU 34Similar
Q3 5:16
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
0.2%
Ryan Eckley punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3199% → 99%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
0.6%
Benjamin Hall run for no gain to the MICH 14Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+7
0.6%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 7 yds to the MICH 21Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 3
OWN 21
0
0.6%
Jack Tuttle pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:45
4TH & 3
OWN 21
0
0.6%
Tommy Doman punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the MSU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:080% → 0%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
0.2%
Alante Brown run for 10 yds to the MSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
0.2%
Jaren Mangham run for 4 yds to the MSU 45Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-5
0.2%
Katin Houser sacked by Derrick Moore for a loss of 5 yards to the MSU 40Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+21
0.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Maliq Carr for 21 yds to the MICH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
0.2%
Katin Houser pass complete to Antonio Gates Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the MICH 41Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 12
OPP 41
-3
0.2%
Nathan Carter run for a loss of 3 yards to the MICH 44Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 15
OPP 44
0
0.2%
Katin Houser pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:37
4TH & 15
OPP 44
0
0.2%
Ryan Eckley punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 4:38100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
0.4%
Benjamin Hall run for 3 yds to the MICH 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+18
0.4%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 18 yds to the MICH 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
0.4%
Benjamin Hall run for 4 yds to the MICH 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+24
0.4%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 24 yds to the MSU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-15
0.4%
TUTTLE, Jack pass to the left complete for 0 yards to MORGAN, Semaj caught at the MSU45 and advanced to the MSU41 (GROSE, Angelo;YOUNG, Zion). PENALTY UM Tripping on EL-HADI, Giovanni enforced 15 yards from the MSU41 to the UM44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 25
OWN 44
-10
0.4%
FRANKLIN, Leon rush to the right for a gain of 4 yards to the UM48 (SPENCER, Malik). PENALTY UM Holding on BEETHAM, Josh enforced 10 yards from the UM44 to the UM34 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 35
OWN 34
+8
0.4%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Marlin Klein for 8 yds to the MICH 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 27
OWN 42
+6
0.4%
Jack Tuttle pass complete to Leon Franklin for 6 yds to the MICH 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 21
OWN 48
-12
0.4%
Jack Tuttle run for 3 yds to the MSU 49 Michigan Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Personal Foul on DUNLAP, Tavierre enforced (-15 Yards) to the MICH 36Similar
Q4 10:22
4TH & 33
OWN 36
0
0.2%
Tommy Doman punt for 42 ydsSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
0.1%
Michigan State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19DOWNS
13 plays · 58 yds · 5:020% → 0%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+1
0.1%
Nathan Carter run for 1 yd to the MSU 18Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 14
OWN 18
0
0.1%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 14
OWN 18
+15
0.1%
Michigan Penalty, Personal Foul (DJ Waller Jr.) to the MSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
0.1%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 6 yds to the MICH 47Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
0.1%
Sam Leavitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+8
0.1%
Nathan Carter run for 8 yds to the MICH 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
0.1%
Sam Leavitt run for no gain to the MICH 39Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+3
0.1%
Nathan Carter run for 3 yds to the MICH 36Similar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+7
0.1%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Antonio Gates Jr. for 7 yds to the MICH 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
0.1%
Nathan Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the MICH 31Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+5
0.1%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Brennan Parachek for 5 yds to the MICH 26Similar
Q4 5:20
4TH & 15
OPP 34
+14
0.0%
Sam Leavitt pass complete to Brennan Parachek for 14 yds to the MICH 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
0.1%
Benjamin Hall run for 2 yds to the MICH 22Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-3
0.1%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Semaj Morgan for a loss of 3 yards to the MICH 19Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+10
0.1%
Jayden Denegal pass complete to Fredrick Moore for 10 yds to the MICH 29Similar
Q4 3:20
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
0.1%
Tommy Doman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tyrell Henry at the MSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
0.0%
Sam Leavitt pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22TD
6 plays · 33 yds · 3:02100% → 100%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
0.1%
Alex Orji run for 5 yds to the MSU 28Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+16
0.1%
Alex Orji run for 16 yds to the MSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
0.1%
Alex Orji run for a loss of 3 yards to the MSU 15Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+3
0.1%
Alex Orji run for 3 yds to the MSU 12Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
0.1%
HALL, Benjamin rush to the right for a gain of 1 yard to the MSU11 (MAJEED, Khalil;ALEXANDER, Aaron). PENALTY MSU Unnecessary Roughness on HANSEN, Maverick enforced half the distance from the goal, 6 yards from the MSU12 to the MSU6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
0.1%
Alex Orji run for 6 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.0%
Harold Joiner III run for no gain to the MSU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
PUNT · Q2 9:41
Ryan Eckley punt for 48 yds
-3.3
TD · Q2 10:44
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 22 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
-1.5
TD · Q2 2:54
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 22 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
-0.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com