Speed4x
View as
Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scoreRUTG score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · G. Wimsatt takes a knee
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:53: Eric Rogers 17 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Jai Patel Kick) — RUTG win probability +6.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:58: Brendan Sorsby run for 4 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — IU win probability +11.8 pts (now 47%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:24: Gavin Wimsatt pass incomplete to JaQuae Jackson — RUTG win probability +6.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:45: Gavin Wimsatt run for 1 yd for a TD (Jai Patel KICK) — RUTG win probability +8.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:11: Gavin Wimsatt run for 80 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK) — RUTG win probability +14.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8RUTG made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 11:28IU 4th & 8 at RUTG 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call37.4%34% to convertField goal37.4%−<0.145% to makePunt37.4%−0.1average punt
- Q2 14:53IU 4th & 13 at IU 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snapGo for it40.2%−0.920% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.2%average punt
- Q2 13:29IU 4th & 4 at IU 37, down 7Close callPunted · 35.2% before the snapGo for it35.4%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.4%−0.1average punt
- Q2 10:53RUTG 4th & 8 at RUTG 22, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snapGo for it63.0%−0.932% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.9%average punt
- Q2 9:53IU 4th & 14 at IU 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snapGo for it32.5%−2.018% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.5%average punt
- Q2 5:23RUTG 4th & 2 at IU 42, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call67.6%57% to convertField goal65.6%−2.030% to makePunt65.9%−1.8average punt
- Q2 0:28RUTG 4th & 20 at RUTG 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snapGo for it53.3%−1.510% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.8%average punt
- Q2 0:00RUTG 4th & 3 at IU 3, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 58.4% before the snapGo for it60.2%44% to convertField goalTheir call57.8%−2.493% to makePunt49.7%−10.5average punt
- Q3 10:48RUTG 4th & 4 at IU 34, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call60.1%48% to convertField goal58.6%−1.547% to makePunt57.6%−2.5average punt
- Q3 7:42IU 4th & 5 at IU 30, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snapGo for it24.5%−0.541% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.9%average punt
- Q3 4:22RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 33, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snapGo for it75.6%−1.936% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.5%average punt
- Q4 14:14IU 4th & 13 at IU 49, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snapGo for it18.7%−1.721% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.4%average punt
- Q4 10:59IU 4th & 6 at RUTG 36, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.3%40% to convertField goal6.6%−0.642% to makePunt6.2%−1.0average punt
- Q4 4:06RUTG 4th & 18 at RUTG 47, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snapGo for it96.4%−0.613% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.0%average punt
- Q4 0:54IU 4th & 7 at RUTG 16, down 17Close callWent for it · 2.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.3%−<0.135% to convertField goal2.3%81% to makePunt1.8%−0.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2RUTG made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 11:28IU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call38.4%97% to makeGo for two38.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:19RUTG Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.8%97% to makeGo for two58.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:53RUTG Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.4%97% to makeGo for two63.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:58IU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.5%97% to makeGo for two42.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:45RUTG Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.5%97% to makeGo for two73.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:11RUTG Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.3%97% to makeGo for two90.0%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIUDrive 1TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1332% → 34%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
31.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Cam Camper for 7 yds to the IU 32Similar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
32.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jaylin Lucas for 1 yd to the IU 39Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+11
32.3%
Christian Turner run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
50
+13
32.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to James Bomba for 13 yds to the RUTG 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
33.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jaylin Lucas for no gain to the RUTG 37Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+2
33.2%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to DeQuece Carter for 2 yds to the RUTG 35Similar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+35
34.4%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Omar Cooper Jr. for 35 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2TD16 plays · 75 yds · 8:0266% → 65%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
36.8%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to JaQuae Jackson for 8 yds to the IU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 3PUNT TD10 plays · 7 yds · 3:1937% → 31%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
37.5%
(02:10) Shotgun Sorsby,Brendan pass complete short right to McCulley,Donaven for 6 yards to the IND41 (Longerbeam,Robert) PENALTY IND Pass Interference (Camper,Cam) 15 yards from IND35 to IND20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:49
3RD & 18
OWN 27
+5
37.2%
(00:50) No Huddle-Shotgun Indiana rush middle for 7 yards loss to the IND20 fumbled by Indiana at IND20 recovered by IND Turner,Christian at IND20 (Hamilton,Kyonte), out of bounds PENALTY RUT Illegal Substitution 5 yards from IND27 to IND32. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1133% → 32%
Q2 13:29
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
32.1%
James Evans punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Christian Dremel at the RUTG 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 2:3168% → 67%
Q2 11:15
4TH & 3
OWN 27
-5
32.9%
PENALTY RUT Illegal Snap (OConnor,Michael) 5 yards from RUT27 to RUT22. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5333% → 31%
Q2 10:02
4TH & 9
OWN 39
-5
31.9%
(10:10) Evans,James punt 61 yards to the RUT00, Touchback PENALTY IND Illegal Formation 5 yards from IND39 to IND34. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 7DOWNS9 plays · 39 yds · 4:2768% → 70%
Q2 9:00
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+15
32.5%
(09:05) No Huddle-Shotgun Young,Aaron rush left for 2 yards loss to the RUT21 (Casey,Aaron) PENALTY IND Horse Collar Tackle (Casey,Aaron) 15 yards from RUT23 to RUT38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8TD4 plays · 59 yds · 1:1533% → 47%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
33.0%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jaylin Lucas for 8 yds to the RUTG 49 for a 1ST down Rutgers Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Desmond Igbinosun) to the RUTG 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 9PUNT11 plays · 20 yds · 3:3060% → 58%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
39.3%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Johnny Langan for 6 yds to the RUTG 44Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+11
38.1%
Gavin Wimsatt pass complete to Ja'shon Benjamin for 11 yds to the IU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 14
OPP 49
-6
40.7%
Gavin Wimsatt sacked by Nick James for a loss of 6 yards to the RUTG 45Similar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 20
OWN 45
0
42.1%
Flynn Appleby punt for 32 yds muffed by Jaylin Lucas at IU 23 recovered by RUTG Robert Longerbeam at the IU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 10FG9 plays · 17 yds · 0:2465% → 65%
RUTGDrive 11TD14 plays · 75 yds · 6:0863% → 78%
IUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5824% → 22%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 3:1376% → 78%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 14PUNT11 plays · 37 yds · 5:0321% → 18%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
21.8%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jaylin Lucas for 7 yds to the IU 47Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 13
OWN 49
0
19.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jaylin Lucas for no gain to the IU 49Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
18.3%
James Evans punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Christian Dremel at the RUTG 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15TD2 plays · 85 yds · 0:5779% → 93%
IUDrive 16DOWNS12 plays · 43 yds · 2:018% → 7%
Q4 12:38
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+11
8.1%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Trent Howland for 11 yds to the IU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
4TH & 5
OWN 45
+15
7.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Sorsby,Brendan pass incomplete deep right to Camper,Cam PENALTY RUT Targeting (Wright-Collins,Jamier) 15 yards from IND45 to RUT40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY. The previous play is under review. The ruling on the field has been overturned. Targeting was confirmed (OVERTURNED PLAY: (11:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 B.Sorsby pass incomplete deep right to #6 C.Camper).Similar
Q4 10:59
4TH & 6
OPP 36
+3
7.3%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Christian Turner for 3 yds to the RUTG 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17PUNT11 plays · 14 yds · 6:4896% → 98%
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
4.3%
(10:59) No Huddle-Shotgun Brown V,Samuel rush middle for 3 yards gain to the RUT36 (Carter,Andre; Sanguinetti,Josh) PENALTY IND Offside (Carter,Andre) 5 yards from RUT33 to RUT38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 3
OPP 38
-10
2.4%
(05:34) Shotgun Brown V,Samuel rush middle for 5 yards gain to the IND33 (Grier,Jordan) PENALTY RUT Illegal Block in Back (Jackson,JaQuae) 10 yards from IND38 to IND48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:06
4TH & 18
OWN 47
0
2.1%
Flynn Appleby punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Camden Jordan at the IU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 18DOWNS15 plays · 66 yds · 3:023% → 2%
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
2.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Trent Howland for 9 yds to the IU 27Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+6
2.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to DeQuece Carter for 6 yds to the IU 38Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+11
2.7%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Aaron Steinfeldt for 11 yds to the RUTG 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+13
2.6%
Brendan Sorsby pass complete to DeQuece Carter for 13 yds to the RUTG 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:11
Gavin Wimsatt run for 80 yds for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)
-14.4
TD · Q2 3:58
Brendan Sorsby run for 4 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
+11.8
TD · Q3 8:45
Gavin Wimsatt run for 1 yd for a TD (Jai Patel KICK)
-8.9