Try the model
WIS

Wisconsin 25 at Illinois 21

ILL
2023 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2023 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreWIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:24 · Hugh Robertson punt for 46 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 167Home team on offense+11.0Pregame prior−0.6Garbage-time factor+6.1Score differential+1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:12: Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tip Reiman for 3 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK) — ILL win probability +16.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:31: Braelon Allen run for 4 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — WIS win probability +11.6 pts (now 47%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:30: Kaden Feagin run for 12 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK) — ILL win probability +14.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:21: Will Pauling 20 Yd pass from Braedyn Locke (Braedyn Locke Pass to Riley Nowakowski for Two-Point Conversion) — WIS win probability +27.1 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 0:27: Braedyn Locke pass complete to Nolan Rucci for 3 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — WIS win probability +60.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 7 of 9WIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
  1. Q1 12:24WIS 4th & 4 at ILL 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:33ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 18, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:32WIS 4th & 2 at WIS 18, down 7
    Close callPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:01ILL 4th & 1 at WIS 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    51.6%−1.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    51.2%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:23WIS 4th & 6 at WIS 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:36ILL 4th & 12 at ILL 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:05WIS 4th & 6 at ILL 9, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.6%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    44.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    39.5%−5.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:42WIS 4th & 6 at ILL 9, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    44.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    38.5%−5.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:05ILL 4th & 2 at WIS 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    55.8%−0.7
    74% to make
    Punt
    51.5%−4.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:03ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:11ILL 4th & 3 at ILL 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:27WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−0.7
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:00WIS 4th & 1 at ILL 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    11.0%−2.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−9.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:13WIS 4th & 10 at ILL 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−6.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:46ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 49, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:24ILL 4th & 14 at ILL 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−7.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:00ILL 4th & 2 at WIS 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    5.8%−10.5
    27% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−11.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 6:07ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:12ILL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:31WIS Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:30ILL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:21WIS Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    22.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    22.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:27WIS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1END OF HALF
1 play · -9 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-9
41.9%
Braedyn Locke sacked by Jer'Zhan Newton for a loss of 9 yards to the WIS 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 17 yds · 2:3661% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
39.5%
Braelon Allen run for 8 yds to the WIS 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
39.5%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the WIS 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-5
39.5%
PENALTY WIS False Start (Nelson,Jack) 5 yards from WIS44 to WIS39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+7
39.5%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Hayden Rucci for 7 yds to the WIS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
39.5%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Bryson Green for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
50
+2
39.5%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 2 yds to the ILL 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
39.5%
Braedyn Locke pass incomplete to Will PaulingSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
39.5%
Braedyn Locke pass incomplete to Will PaulingSimilar
Q1 12:24
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
40.3%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the ILL 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:5140% → 41%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
40.4%
PENALTY ILL False Start (Pearl,Julian) 5 yards from ILL12 to ILL07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:24
1ST & 15
OWN 7
+7
40.3%
Kaden Feagin run for 7 yds to the ILL 14Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
40.4%
Kaden Feagin run for no gain to the ILL 14Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+4
40.2%
Luke Altmyer run for 4 yds to the ILL 18Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+4
40.2%
Luke Altmyer run for 4 yds to the ILL 18Similar
Q1 10:33
4TH & 4
OWN 18
0
40.7%
Hugh Robertson punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Chimere Dike at the WIS 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4FUMBLE
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:4759% → 59%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
40.8%
PENALTY WIS False Start (Mahlman,Riley) 5 yards from WIS34 to WIS29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 15
OWN 29
+2
40.9%
Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the WIS 31Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 13
OWN 31
+14
41.0%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Riley Nowakowski for 14 yds to the WIS 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
40.5%
Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the WIS 49Similar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
40.5%
Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the WIS 49Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+5
40.8%
Braedyn Locke run for 5 yds to the ILL 46 Braedyn Locke fumbled, recovered by ILL Miles ScottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 2:3942% → 47%
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+27
42.0%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Pat Bryant for 27 yds to the WIS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
42.3%
Kaden Feagin run for 12 yds to the WIS 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
42.3%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the WIS 12Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+11
43.2%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 11 yds to the WIS 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
43.2%
Kaden Feagin run for no gain to the WIS 1Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
46.8%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tanner Arkin for 1 yd for a TD Wisconsin Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Braelon Allen) declined (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3054% → 52%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
45.9%
Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the WIS 8Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 12
OWN 8
+10
46.0%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Skyler Bell for 10 yds to the WIS 18Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 2
OWN 18
0
46.2%
Braedyn Locke pass incomplete to Skyler BellSimilar
Q1 4:32
4TH & 2
OWN 18
+8
47.6%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 44 yds , Isaiah Williams returns for 8 yds to the ILL 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7DOWNS
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:3148% → 50%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
48.0%
Isaiah Williams run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 6
50
0
48.0%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Pat BryantSimilar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 6
50
+8
47.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Casey Washington for 8 yds to the WIS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
48.1%
Aidan Laughery run for 1 yd to the WIS 43Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 11
OPP 43
+1
47.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tip Reiman for 1 yd to the WIS 42Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+5
47.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Altmyer,Luke pass incomplete short right to Moore,Griffin PENALTY WIS Offside (Latu,Kamo'i) 5 yards from WIS42 to WIS37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+4
47.8%
Luke Altmyer run for 4 yds to the WIS 33Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+4
47.8%
Luke Altmyer run for 4 yds to the WIS 33Similar
Q1 1:01
4TH & 1
OPP 33
0
49.6%
Kaden Feagin run for no gain to the WIS 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:3852% → 49%
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
48.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Allen,Braelon rush middle for 0 yards to the WIS33 (Daxon,Denzel; Newton,Jer'Zhan) PENALTY WIS Holding (Nelson,Jack) 10 yards from WIS33 to WIS23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 23
+3
49.7%
Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the WIS 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 26
+16
49.8%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 16 yds to the WIS 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
48.4%
Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the WIS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
48.6%
Braedyn Locke pass incomplete to Riley NowakowskiSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
48.9%
Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the WIS 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
48.4%
Braedyn Locke pass incomplete to Will PaulingSimilar
Q2 13:23
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
50.8%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:4751% → 50%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
51.2%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the ILL 23Similar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
51.2%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q2 13:23
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
50.5%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q2 12:44
4TH & 7
OWN 23
-5
50.3%
Robertson,Hugh punt 40 yards to the WIS37 fair catch by Dike,Chimere at WIS37 PENALTY ILL Illegal Formation 5 yards from ILL23 to ILL18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:44
4TH & 7
OWN 23
-5
50.3%
Robertson,Hugh punt 40 yards to the WIS37 fair catch by Dike,Chimere at WIS37 PENALTY ILL Illegal Formation 5 yards from ILL23 to ILL18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:36
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
50.3%
Hugh Robertson punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10DOWNS
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:5450% → 47%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
49.6%
Braelon Allen run for 16 yds to the ILL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
48.5%
Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the ILL 31Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+14
48.3%
Illinois Penalty, Personal Foul (Xavier Scott) to the ILL 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
48.3%
Braedyn Locke pass incomplete to Skyler BellSimilar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
48.3%
Braedyn Locke pass incomplete to Bryson GreenSimilar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+4
49.5%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Skyler Bell for 4 yds to the ILL 9Similar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+4
49.5%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Skyler Bell for 4 yds to the ILL 9Similar
Q2 10:05
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+9
52.1%
Gavin Meyers run for 9 yds to the ILL 18Similar
Q2 9:42
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+9
52.6%
Gavin Meyers run for 9 yds to the ILL 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11TD
13 plays · 82 yds · 7:5354% → 73%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
53.6%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 5 yds to the ILL 23Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+4
53.7%
Aidan Laughery run for 4 yds to the ILL 27Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+3
53.1%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Casey Washington for 3 yds to the ILL 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
53.8%
Aidan Laughery run for 15 yds to the ILL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
55.1%
Kaden Feagin run for 6 yds to the WIS 49Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+20
55.4%
Luke Altmyer run for 20 yds to the WIS 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
55.6%
Luke Altmyer run for 1 yd to the WIS 28Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+7
55.6%
Kaden Feagin run for 7 yds to the WIS 21Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 2
OPP 21
0
54.8%
Kaden Feagin run for no gain to the WIS 21Similar
Q2 10:05
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+17
53.8%
Luke Altmyer run for 17 yds to the WIS 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
55.6%
PENALTY ILL False Start (Adams,Isaiah) 5 yards from WIS04 to WIS09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
55.6%
Luke Altmyer run for 6 yds to the WIS 3Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
72.5%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tip Reiman for 3 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 1:3731% → 47%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
69.4%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to C.J. Williams for 9 yds to the WIS 36Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+3
68.4%
Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the WIS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
69.0%
Braedyn Locke pass incomplete to C.J. WilliamsSimilar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
69.2%
Braedyn Locke pass incomplete to Skyler BellSimilar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+32
69.7%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 32 yds to the ILL 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+19
66.5%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to C.J. Williams for 19 yds to the ILL 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
65.0%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 6 yds to the ILL 4Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
53.5%
Braelon Allen run for 4 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13Uncategorized
8 plays · -11 yds · 0:2861% → 61%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.5%
Kaden Feagin run for 1 yd to the ILL 26Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
61.1%
Kaden Feagin run for no gain to the ILL 26Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+3
61.4%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 3 yds to the ILL 29Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
60.6%
Hugh Robertson punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 2:4962% → 63%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
62.0%
Kaden Feagin run for 4 yds to the ILL 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
62.0%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Pat BryantSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+10
60.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Casey Washington for 10 yds to the ILL 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
63.8%
PENALTY ILL False Start (Whitenack,Hunter) 5 yards from ILL40 to ILL35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 15
OWN 35
0
61.8%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+12
61.5%
Kaden Feagin run for 12 yds to the ILL 47Similar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
63.3%
Luke Altmyer run for no gain to the ILL 47Similar
Q3 12:11
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
63.2%
Hugh Robertson punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:4437% → 34%
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
62.7%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the WIS 4Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 9
OWN 4
0
63.1%
Jackson Acker run for no gain to the WIS 4Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 9
OWN 4
+12
64.2%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 12 yds to the WIS 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
62.2%
Braedyn Locke pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+1
62.8%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the WIS 17Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 9
OWN 17
0
63.8%
Braedyn Locke pass incomplete to Bryson GreenSimilar
Q3 9:36
4TH & 9
OWN 17
+5
66.5%
Bertrams,Atticus punt 30 yards to the WIS47 fair catch by Williams,Isaiah at WIS47 PENALTY ILL Illegal Formation 5 yards from WIS17 to WIS22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:27
4TH & 4
OWN 22
0
66.2%
Atticus Bertrams punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16TD
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:5770% → 85%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
69.6%
Isaiah Williams run for 4 yds to the WIS 49Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+5
69.7%
Luke Altmyer run for 5 yds to the WIS 44Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
68.9%
Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds to the WIS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
70.0%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the WIS 39Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+3
69.9%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 3 yds to the WIS 42Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+14
68.2%
Luke Altmyer run for 14 yds to the WIS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
70.3%
Kaden Feagin run for 7 yds to the WIS 21Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+2
70.3%
Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds to the WIS 19Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+2
69.0%
Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds to the WIS 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
70.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Altmyer,Luke pass incomplete short right to Williams,Isaiah PENALTY WIS Offside (Johnson,Rodas) 5 yards from WIS17 to WIS12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 5
OPP 12
+12
85.1%
Kaden Feagin run for 12 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 5:1718% → 19%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
81.9%
Braelon Allen run for 30 yds to the ILL 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
78.4%
Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the ILL 42Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+1
78.7%
Braelon Allen run for 1 yd to the ILL 41Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+7
79.0%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Will Pauling for 7 yds to the ILL 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
77.4%
Jackson Acker run for 5 yds to the ILL 29Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
76.9%
Braelon Allen run for no gain to the ILL 29Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+4
78.1%
Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the ILL 25Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+2
84.6%
Braedyn Locke run for 2 yds to the ILL 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
83.2%
Braelon Allen run for no gain to the ILL 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
83.9%
Braedyn Locke pass incomplete to Riley NowakowskiSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
84.8%
Braedyn Locke pass incomplete to Will PaulingSimilar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+41
80.6%
Nathanial Vakos 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 3:2783% → 87%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
83.3%
Kaden Feagin run for 6 yds to the ILL 31Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+15
83.5%
Luke Altmyer run for 15 yds to the ILL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
84.8%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the ILL 49Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+4
84.7%
Luke Altmyer run for 4 yds to the WIS 47Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 3
OPP 47
-4
84.1%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Maema Njongmeta for a loss of 4 yards to the ILL 49Similar
Q4 10:46
4TH & 7
OWN 49
+3
87.0%
Hugh Robertson punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WIS 18 , Chimere Dike returns for 3 yds to the WIS 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 3:2514% → 46%
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
85.6%
Braedyn Locke pass incomplete to Bryson GreenSimilar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+10
85.9%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Bryson Green for 10 yds to the WIS 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
84.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Locke,Braedyn sacked for loss of 8 yards to the WIS20 (Newton,Jer'Zhan) PENALTY ILL Holding declined ILL Targeting (Newton,Jer'Zhan) 15 yards from WIS28 to WIS43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
82.9%
Braelon Allen run for 10 yds to the ILL 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
81.7%
Braedyn Locke pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+4
82.1%
Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the ILL 43Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+12
82.5%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Braelon Allen for 12 yds to the ILL 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
80.3%
Braedyn Locke pass incomplete to Bryson GreenSimilar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+9
80.6%
Braelon Allen run for 9 yds to the ILL 22Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+2
81.2%
Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the ILL 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
54.1%
Will Pauling 20 Yd pass from Braedyn Locke (Braedyn Locke Pass to Riley Nowakowski for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 3:5770% → 76%
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
69.5%
Kaden Feagin run for 3 yds to the ILL 28Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
69.5%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
67.4%
Luke Altmyer run for 13 yds to the ILL 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
72.7%
Kaden Feagin run for 2 yds to the ILL 43Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-10
72.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Altmyer,Luke pass complete short right to Reiman,Tip for 10 yards to the WIS47 (Johnson,Rodas), out of bounds PENALTY ILL Holding (Boyer,Henry) 10 yards from ILL43 to ILL33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 18
OWN 33
+9
68.8%
Luke Altmyer run for 9 yds to the ILL 42Similar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 9
OWN 42
-5
69.5%
Luke Altmyer sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the ILL 37Similar
Q4 3:24
4TH & 14
OWN 37
0
76.1%
Hugh Robertson punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21TD
17 plays · 83 yds · 2:5732% → 95%
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
67.9%
Braedyn Locke pass incomplete to Braelon AllenSimilar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+9
68.9%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Skyler Bell for 9 yds to the WIS 26Similar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+3
66.5%
Braelon Allen run for 3 yds to the WIS 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
66.1%
Braedyn Locke pass incomplete to Will PaulingSimilar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+15
68.1%
Braelon Allen run for 15 yds to the WIS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
62.4%
Braedyn Locke pass incomplete to Bryson GreenSimilar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+10
64.1%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Chimere Dike for 10 yds to the ILL 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
59.9%
Braedyn Locke pass incomplete to Skyler BellSimilar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
60.5%
Braedyn Locke pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+11
70.2%
Braelon Allen run for 11 yds to the ILL 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+30
63.6%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Skyler Bell for 30 yds to the ILL 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
61.1%
Braelon Allen run for 4 yds to the ILL 1Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+2
61.7%
Braelon Allen run for 2 yds to the ILL 3Similar
Q4 0:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
4.7%
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Nolan Rucci for 3 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:2715% → 16%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
15.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Kaden Feagin for 23 yds to the ILL 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
18.8%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
15.3%
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Griffin Moore for 8 yds to the WIS 44Similar
Q4 0:13
3RD & 2
OPP 44
0
19.4%
Luke Altmyer pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 44
-3
16.3%
Luke Altmyer sacked by Darryl Peterson for a loss of 3 yards to the WIS 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:27
Braedyn Locke pass complete to Nolan Rucci for 3 yds for a TD (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
-60.9
TD · Q4 7:21
Will Pauling 20 Yd pass from Braedyn Locke (Braedyn Locke Pass to Riley Nowakowski for Two-Point Conversion)
-27.1
TD · Q2 2:12
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Tip Reiman for 3 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)
+16.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com