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MISS

Ole Miss 28 at Auburn 21

AUB
2023 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2023 · Jordan-Hare Stadium
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Win probability · AUB
modelAUB aheadMISS aheadconfidence bandkey playAUB scoreMISS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:16 · Fraser Masin punt for 41 yds , Koy Moore returns for 9 yds to the AUB 34 Auburn Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the AUB 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 102Home team on offense−1.2Pregame prior−6.5Score differential−2.9Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:44: Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +8.5 pts (now 44%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:00: Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +19.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:51: Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK) — MISS win probability +10.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:56: Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 8 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK) — AUB win probability +17.9 pts (now 19%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:56: Alex McPherson on-side kick recovered by Ole Miss at the AUB 47 — MISS win probability +8.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AUB made the numbers' call on 7 of 10MISS made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:02AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.4%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:51MISS 4th & 1 at AUB 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    62.2%−0.5
    54% to make
    Punt
    62.0%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:20AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:40MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:34AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:17MISS 4th & 10 at AUB 10, tied
    Close callWent for it · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.1%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    58.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    52.5%−5.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:21AUB 4th & 7 at AUB 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−1.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:01MISS 4th & 23 at MISS 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−2.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:03MISS 4th & 5 at AUB 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    55.9%−1.4
    36% to make
    Punt
    56.0%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:12AUB 4th & 11 at AUB 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−2.8
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:16MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−1.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:22AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 42, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%−2.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:23MISS 4th & 7 at MISS 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−2.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:32AUB 4th & 15 at MISS 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−2.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    48.4%−2.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:59AUB 4th & 3 at AUB 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:41AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 31, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:34MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:40AUB 4th & 15 at AUB 28, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MISS made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 4:55MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:59AUB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:24MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:44AUB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:00MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:51MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−0.6
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:56AUB Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.1%−2.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1DOWNS
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:5234% → 36%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
34.3%
Robby Ashford run for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 23Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+7
34.5%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 7 yds to the AUB 30Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
34.8%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Tyler Fromm for 9 yds to the AUB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
35.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 4 yards to the AUB 35Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 14
OWN 35
0
35.3%
Robby Ashford run for no gain to the AUB 35Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 14
OWN 35
+13
35.4%
Robby Ashford run for 13 yds to the AUB 48Similar
Q1 11:02
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
36.0%
Robby Ashford run for no gain to the AUB 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 2TD
14 plays · 48 yds · 6:0265% → 67%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
35.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the AUB 47Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 9
OPP 47
-5
35.5%
Ole Miss Penalty, Illegal Procedure (Caleb Warren) to the MISS 48Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 14
OWN 48
+7
36.0%
Jaxson Dart run for 7 yds to the AUB 45Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 7
OPP 45
-10
35.7%
Judkins, Quinshon rush for 24 yards to the AUBURN21, PENALTY OLEMISS holding (McGee, Quincy) 10 yards to the OLEMISS45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 17
OWN 45
+15
36.5%
Dart, Jaxson pass incomplete to Franklin, Zakhari, PENALTY AUBURN pass interference (Pritchett, Nehemiah) 15 yards to the AUBURN40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OLEMISS.Similar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
35.9%
Dayton Wade run for 3 yds to the AUB 37Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
36.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the AUB 37Similar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 7
OPP 37
-5
36.2%
Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (Caden Prieskorn) to the AUB 42Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 12
OPP 42
-10
36.6%
Dart, Jaxson rush for 19 yards to the AUBURN23, PENALTY OLEMISS holding (Pettus, Micah) 10 yards to the OLEMISS48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 22
OWN 48
+21
37.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 21 yds to the AUB 31Similar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+17
36.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 17 yds to the AUB 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
36.2%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the AUB 12Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+1
36.3%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the AUB 11Similar
Q1 4:55
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+11
33.1%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 11 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4834% → 40%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
34.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 9 yds to the AUB 34Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
34.8%
Payton Thorne run for 9 yds to the AUB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
35.0%
Payton Thorne run for 4 yds to the AUB 47Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
35.3%
Payton Thorne run for no gain to the AUB 47Similar
Q1 2:59
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+53
39.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for 53 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 4TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2861% → 68%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
38.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the MISS 27Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+35
38.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 35 yds to the AUB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
37.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 39Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+8
37.3%
Jaxson Dart run for 8 yds to the AUB 31Similar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+2
37.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the AUB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
32.0%
Jaxson Dart 29 Yd Run for a TD (Caden Davis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5834% → 33%
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
33.8%
Brian Battie run for 4 yds to the AUB 29Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
34.0%
Brian Battie run for 2 yds to the AUB 31Similar
Q2 14:27
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
33.6%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Camden BrownSimilar
Q2 14:20
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
33.3%
Oscar Chapman punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Dayton Wade at the MISS 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 6INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:5467% → 68%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
33.1%
Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (Jeremy James) to the MISS 25Similar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+12
33.7%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dayton Wade for 12 yds to the MISS 37Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+3
32.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the MISS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-41
32.2%
Jaxson Dart pass intercepted Donovan Kaufman return for 41 yds to the MISS 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7TD
4 plays · 24 yds · 1:3736% → 44%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
36.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 6 yds to the MISS 18Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+2
36.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the MISS 16Similar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+15
35.7%
Robby Ashford run for 15 yds to the MISS 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5860% → 59%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
40.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the MISS 30Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
39.9%
Jaxson Dart run for 2 yds to the MISS 32Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
40.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q2 10:40
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+4
41.4%
Fraser Masin punt for 54 yds , Koy Moore returns for 4 yds to the AUB 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5942% → 41%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
42.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 4 yds to the AUB 22Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 6
OWN 22
-4
42.5%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 4 yards to the AUB 18Similar
Q2 9:14
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+6
41.5%
Payton Thorne run for 6 yds to the AUB 24Similar
Q2 8:34
4TH & 4
OWN 24
+13
41.4%
Oscar Chapman punt for 56 yds , Dayton Wade returns for 13 yds to the MISS 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 10INT
11 plays · 57 yds · 4:1160% → 60%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
40.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the MISS 37Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+12
39.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 12 yds to the MISS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
38.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 6 yds to the AUB 45Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+11
37.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 11 yds to the AUB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
37.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds to the AUB 25Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+5
37.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the AUB 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
37.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 10 yds to the AUB 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
37.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 11Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-9
37.5%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Marcus Harris and Eugene Asante for a loss of 9 yards to the AUB 20 Ole Miss Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jaxson Dart) to the AUB 20Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 0
OPP 20
+10
37.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 10 yds to the AUB 10Similar
Q2 4:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
0
40.3%
Charlie Pollock pass intercepted Zion Puckett return for no gain to the AUB 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11FUMBLE
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:5044% → 43%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
43.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the AUB 7Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 8
OWN 7
-3
43.9%
Ashford, Robby pass complete to Deal, Luke for 7 yards to the AUBURN14, PENALTY AUBURN pass interference (Deal, Luke) 3 yards to the AUBURN4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 11
OWN 4
+6
44.0%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Koy Moore for 6 yds to the AUB 10Similar
Q2 2:38
3RD & 5
OWN 10
-2
43.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for a loss of 2 yards to the AUB 8Similar
Q2 2:21
4TH & 7
OWN 8
-11
42.9%
Oscar Chapman punt for 43 yds , Dayton Wade returns for a loss of 11 yards to the MISS 38 Dayton Wade fumbled, recovered by MISS Ole Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MISS 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:1359% → 57%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
41.5%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+28
42.3%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 28 yds to the AUB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-6
38.6%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Marcus Harris for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 16
50
0
40.9%
Jaxson Dart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 16
50
-7
41.9%
Jaxson Dart sacked by Jalen McLeod for a loss of 7 yards to the MISS 43Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 23
OWN 43
0
43.5%
Fraser Masin punt for 12 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AUB 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
48.2%
Robby Ashford pass intercepted John Saunders Jr. return for no gain to the MISS 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:3858% → 57%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
42.4%
Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the MISS 17Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+3
42.6%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the MISS 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:5257% → 57%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.0%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the MISS 27Similar
Q3 14:38
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
42.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 13 yds to the MISS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
41.2%
Quinshon Judkins run for 16 yds to the AUB 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
40.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the AUB 43Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
40.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Ulysses Bentley IVSimilar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 9
OPP 43
-1
41.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 44Similar
Q3 12:10
4TH & 10
OPP 44
+5
44.8%
Auburn Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the AUB 39Similar
Q3 12:03
4TH & 5
OPP 39
+4
43.0%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 4 yds to the AUB 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:4748% → 46%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
47.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for 8 yds to the AUB 43Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-4
50.7%
Robby Ashford run for a loss of 4 yards to the AUB 39Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-5
48.2%
Payton Thorne sacked by Jared Ivey for a loss of 5 yards to the AUB 34Similar
Q3 10:12
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
45.8%
Oscar Chapman punt for 66 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5055% → 52%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
45.1%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 5 yds to the MISS 25Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
44.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the MISS 25 Ole Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (Micah Pettus) declinedSimilar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
46.2%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q3 9:16
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+9
47.7%
Fraser Masin punt for 41 yds , Koy Moore returns for 9 yds to the AUB 34 Auburn Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the AUB 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4949% → 50%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
49.0%
Robby Ashford run for 4 yds to the AUB 37Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+4
51.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the AUB 41Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+1
51.0%
Robby Ashford run for 1 yd to the AUB 42Similar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
49.8%
Oscar Chapman punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the MISS 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5554% → 50%
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
46.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the MISS 12 Quinshon Judkins fumbled, recovered by MISS Quinshon JudkinsSimilar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
46.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for no gain to the MISS 12Similar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+1
48.5%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the MISS 13Similar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 7
OWN 13
0
49.9%
Fraser Masin punt for 38 yds, downed at the AUB 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:4454% → 49%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
54.0%
Brian Battie run for 4 yds to the MISS 47Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+7
54.6%
Payton Thorne run for 7 yds to the MISS 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
55.0%
Brian Battie run for no gain to the MISS 40Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-9
55.0%
Holden Geriner run for a loss of 9 yards to the MISS 49Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 19
OPP 49
+4
50.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the MISS 45Similar
Q3 2:32
4TH & 15
OPP 45
+55
49.0%
Oscar Chapman punt for 45 yds for a touchback Ole Miss Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 21TD
8 plays · 89 yds · 2:2853% → 78%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
47.4%
Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+7
47.8%
Quinshon Judkins run for 7 yds to the MISS 17Similar
Q3 1:52
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+29
48.9%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 29 yds to the MISS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+24
43.5%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 24 yds to the AUB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
41.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the AUB 29 for a 1ST down Auburn Penalty, Face Mask (14 yards) (Austin Keys) to the AUB 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
41.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 10 yds to the AUB 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
41.1%
Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the AUB 1Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
21.8%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:5728% → 26%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
28.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 2 yds to the AUB 27Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
28.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 7 yds to the AUB 34Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
28.5%
Auburn Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (TEAM) to the AUB 29Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+3
26.6%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the AUB 32Similar
Q4 12:59
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
26.1%
Oscar Chapman punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the MISS 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 23TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 5:0078% → 94%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
22.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 8 yds to the MISS 40Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+2
20.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the MISS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
20.7%
Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 37Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+18
23.0%
Jaxson Dart run for 18 yds to the AUB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
19.2%
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the AUB 44Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+36
16.8%
Jaxson Dart pass complete to Tre Harris for 36 yds to the AUB 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
16.0%
Jaxson Dart run for 3 yds to the AUB 5Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 0
OPP 5
-5
14.9%
Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (Quincy McGee) to the AUB 10Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
15.7%
Dayton Wade run for 2 yds to the AUB 8 for a 1ST down Auburn Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Eugene Asante) to the AUB 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
5.7%
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 24INT
10 plays · 48 yds · 2:467% → 8%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for no gain to the AUB 25Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
6.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 6 yds to the AUB 31Similar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
6.5%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jay FairSimilar
Q4 6:41
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+14
6.4%
Payton Thorne run for 14 yds to the AUB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
6.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jay Fair for 9 yds to the MISS 46Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+9
7.1%
Payton Thorne run for 9 yds to the MISS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
6.8%
Thorne, Payton pass incomplete to Fairweather, Rivaldo, PENALTY OLEMISS pass interference (Saunders Jr., John) 6 yards to the OLEMISS31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN.Similar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
7.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 4 yds to the MISS 27Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
7.5%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted, touchback. Zamari Walton return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 2:2295% → 98%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
4.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the MISS 22Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-3
4.2%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 3 yards to the MISS 19Similar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+1
3.3%
Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the MISS 20Similar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+1
2.4%
Fraser Masin punt for 48 yds , Koy Moore returns for 1 yd to the AUB 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 26TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 1:333% → 19%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-6
3.0%
Payton Thorne sacked by Isaac Ukwu and Cedric Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the AUB 27Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 16
OWN 27
0
2.4%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jay FairSimilar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 16
OWN 27
+1
2.4%
Payton Thorne run for 1 yd to the AUB 28Similar
Q4 1:40
4TH & 15
OWN 28
+47
2.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jarquez Hunter for 47 yds to the MISS 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
2.9%
Payton Thorne sacked by Cedric Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the MISS 30Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+13
1.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Caleb Burton III for 13 yds to the MISS 17Similar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+9
1.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 9 yds to the MISS 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
19.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 8 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:3995% → 95%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
4.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 48Similar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 11
OPP 48
-1
4.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AUB 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:00
Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)
-19.3
TD · Q4 0:56
Payton Thorne pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 8 yds for a TD (Alex McPherson KICK)
+17.9
TD · Q4 7:51
Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)
-10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com