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MSST

Mississippi State 7 at Arkansas 3

ARK
2023 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2023 · Razorback Stadium
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Win probability · ARK
modelARK aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playARK scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Isaac TeSlaa
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:00: Jo'Quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MSST 34 — MSST win probability +7.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:45: Jo'Quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the ARK 45 — MSST win probability +11.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:49: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jaedon Wilson for 3 yds to the ARK 20 — ARK win probability +9.8 pts (now 31%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:07: Jo'Quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the ARK 17 — MSST win probability +13.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:07: KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 7 yds to the ARK 27 — ARK win probability +11.2 pts (now 20%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARK made the numbers' call on 9 of 11MSST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 12:30ARK 4th & 4 at MSST 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.7%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    68.3%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:25MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:13ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:56MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:35ARK 4th & 4 at ARK 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:42ARK 4th & 17 at ARK 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:37MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:12ARK 4th & 8 at ARK 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:12MSST 4th & 9 at MSST 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:33ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.3%−2.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:00MSST 4th & 9 at ARK 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    45.2%−2.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:54ARK 4th & 7 at MSST 38, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    48.3%−1.3
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%−1.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:54MSST 4th & 14 at MSST 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−5.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:55MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−1.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:11ARK 4th & 19 at ARK 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−4.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:56MSST 4th & 21 at MSST 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−5.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:11ARK 4th & 7 at ARK 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.5%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.4%−3.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:14MSST 4th & 1 at ARK 11, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.0%−3.3
    87% to make
    Punt
    74.8%−14.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:38ARK 4th & 3 at ARK 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.5%−3.9
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:00ARK 4th & 4 at MSST 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.7%−9.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 13:03MSST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:2031% → 31%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
69.2%
Lideatrick Griffin run for 1 yd to the MSST 26Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
69.1%
Mike Wright pass intercepted Alfahiym Walcott return for no gain to the MSST 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2FG
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:3069% → 69%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
69.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 4 yds to the MSST 31Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+19
69.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Ty Washington for 19 yds to the MSST 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
69.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the MSST 10Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+4
69.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the MSST 6Similar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 4
OPP 6
0
69.2%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Ty WashingtonSimilar
Q1 12:30
4TH & 4
OPP 6
+24
69.2%
Cam Little 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:0031% → 31%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
69.1%
Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 11 yds to the MSST 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
69.0%
Zavion Thomas run for a loss of 4 yards to the MSST 32Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 14
OWN 32
0
69.1%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Antonio HarmonSimilar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+10
69.2%
Mike Wright pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 10 yds to the MSST 42Similar
Q1 10:25
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
69.0%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0769% → 69%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
68.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 4 yds to the ARK 29Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
69.0%
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the ARK 29Similar
Q1 9:22
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
68.8%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Andrew ArmstrongSimilar
Q1 9:13
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
68.6%
Max Fletcher punt for 61 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSST 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 36 yds · 3:0931% → 31%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
69.1%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the MSST 16Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+26
69.1%
Mike Wright run for 26 yds to the MSST 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
68.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 5 yds to the MSST 47Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+4
68.4%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the ARK 49Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 1
OPP 49
0
68.3%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for no gain to the ARK 49Similar
Q1 6:02
4TH & 1
OPP 49
-5
68.6%
Mississippi State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MSST 46Similar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
69.0%
Andrew Osteen punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:1069% → 68%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
68.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 2 yds to the ARK 22Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
68.5%
KJ Jefferson run for 7 yds to the ARK 29Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+7
68.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 7 yds to the ARK 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
68.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for a loss of 3 yards to the ARK 33Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+2
68.4%
AJ Green run for 2 yds to the ARK 35Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+7
68.0%
KJ Jefferson run for 7 yds to the ARK 42Similar
Q1 2:35
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+27
67.9%
Max Fletcher punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MSST 16 Arkansas Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the MSST 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 4:2232% → 38%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
68.2%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the MSST 30Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+31
68.5%
Mike Wright run for 16 yds to the ARK 46 for a 1ST down Arkansas Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the ARK 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
67.1%
Mike Wright pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 5 yds to the ARK 34Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+9
66.4%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 9 yds to the ARK 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
66.3%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 8 yds to the ARK 17Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+4
66.2%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the ARK 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+12
66.1%
Mike Wright pass complete to Zavion Thomas for 12 yds to the ARK 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
65.9%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the ARK 2Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
61.6%
Mike Wright pass complete to Jo'Quavious Marks for 2 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:0363% → 62%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
63.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 3 yds to the ARK 28Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
63.5%
KJ Jefferson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-10
62.6%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 10 yards to the ARK 18Similar
Q2 11:42
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
61.8%
Max Fletcher punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSST 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5338% → 38%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
62.3%
Lideatrick Griffin run for 5 yds to the MSST 39Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
61.2%
Jeffery Pittman run for no gain to the MSST 39Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
61.3%
Mike Wright run for no gain to the MSST 39Similar
Q2 9:37
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
62.1%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:1062% → 59%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
62.1%
Rashod Dubinion run for 5 yds to the ARK 35Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+8
63.1%
Rashod Dubinion run for 8 yds to the ARK 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
63.3%
Arkansas Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ARK 33Similar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+6
60.4%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 6 yds to the ARK 39Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 14
OWN 39
+11
60.5%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 11 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:51
3RD & 3
50
-5
62.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for a loss of 5 yards to the ARK 45Similar
Q2 6:12
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
59.1%
Max Fletcher punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSST 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:4841% → 43%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
59.2%
Seth Davis run for 9 yds to the MSST 25Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+7
58.0%
Seth Davis run for 7 yds to the MSST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
57.8%
Seth Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the MSST 30 Seth Davis fumbled, forced by Cameron Ball, recovered by MSST Seth DavisSimilar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+15
58.5%
Arkansas Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Lorando Johnson) to the MSST 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
56.4%
Mississippi State Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the MSST 30Similar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 25
OWN 30
+2
58.1%
Jeffery Pittman run for 2 yds to the MSST 32Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 23
OWN 32
+14
56.9%
Mike Wright run for 14 yds to the MSST 46Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
55.4%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
Q2 2:12
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
57.3%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5558% → 56%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
57.5%
KJ Jefferson run for 6 yds to the ARK 22Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 4
OWN 22
0
57.5%
KJ Jefferson run for no gain to the ARK 22Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+8
55.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 8 yds to the ARK 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-11
57.1%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Corey Ellington for a loss of 11 yards to the ARK 19 KJ Jefferson fumbled, recovered by ARK Rashod Dubinion , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 21
OWN 19
+2
56.1%
Dominique Johnson run for 2 yds to the ARK 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13FUMBLE
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:1257% → 56%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-4
56.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaiah Sategna for a loss of 4 yards to the ARK 22Similar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 14
OWN 22
+9
55.9%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 9 yds to the ARK 31Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+6
55.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for 6 yds to the ARK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
56.5%
Rashod Dubinion run for 6 yds to the ARK 43Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+1
58.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for 1 yd to the ARK 44Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+2
57.0%
AJ Green run for 2 yds to the ARK 46Similar
Q3 11:33
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+1
55.8%
KJ Jefferson run for 1 yd to the ARK 47 KJ Jefferson fumbled, forced by Shawn Preston Jr., recovered by MSST DeShawn PageSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2050% → 47%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
50.5%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the ARK 46Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
50.3%
Mike Wright pass incomplete to Justin RobinsonSimilar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+5
50.9%
Mike Wright run for 5 yds to the ARK 41Similar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 4
OPP 41
-5
52.3%
Mississippi State Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the ARK 46Similar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
53.2%
Andrew Osteen punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15PUNT
12 plays · 51 yds · 5:5554% → 49%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
53.7%
KJ Jefferson run for 13 yds to the ARK 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
53.8%
Rashod Dubinion run for 7 yds to the ARK 31Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+6
55.8%
KJ Jefferson run for 6 yds to the ARK 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
54.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jaedon Wilson for 4 yds to the ARK 41Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+6
54.9%
AJ Green run for 6 yds to the ARK 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
55.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 9 yds to the MSST 44Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+3
55.8%
AJ Green run for 3 yds to the MSST 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
55.5%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the MSST 38Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+2
55.6%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 2 yds to the MSST 36Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+3
53.9%
Rashod Dubinion run for 3 yds to the MSST 33Similar
Q3 4:03
4TH & 2
OPP 33
-5
51.2%
Arkansas Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MSST 38Similar
Q3 3:54
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
48.8%
Max Fletcher punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MSST 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 4:5154% → 56%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
46.0%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for no gain to the MSST 3Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 3
-1
45.4%
Mississippi State Penalty, Illegal Procedure (-1 Yards) to the MSST 2Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 11
OWN 2
-1
45.3%
Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (-1 Yards) to the MSST 1Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 12
OWN 1
+3
44.2%
Mike Wright run for 3 yds to the MSST 4Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 9
OWN 4
-2
45.4%
Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (-2 Yards) to the MSST 2Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 11
OWN 2
+30
45.1%
Mike Wright pass complete to Justin Robinson for 30 yds to the MSST 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
41.1%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MSST 33Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
40.6%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the MSST 37Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 5
OWN 37
-10
40.0%
Mike Wright run for 5 yds to the MSST 42 Mississippi State Penalty, Illegal Block (Justin Robinson) to the MSST 27Similar
Q4 14:29
3RD & 15
OWN 27
+1
42.8%
Mike Wright run for 1 yd to the MSST 28Similar
Q4 13:54
4TH & 14
OWN 28
0
43.9%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Sategna at the ARK 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17INT
9 plays · 19 yds · 4:3745% → 41%
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
45.2%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 3 yds to the ARK 32Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+6
45.1%
KJ Jefferson run for 6 yds to the ARK 38Similar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+2
46.9%
Rashod Dubinion run for 2 yds to the ARK 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
47.0%
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the ARK 40Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
44.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Rashod Dubinion for 2 yds to the ARK 42Similar
Q4 10:56
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+9
43.4%
KJ Jefferson run for 9 yds to the MSST 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
48.1%
Dominique Johnson run for 3 yds to the MSST 46Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 7
OPP 46
-6
47.6%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Decamerion Richardson for a loss of 6 yards to the ARK 48Similar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 13
OWN 48
-3
41.3%
KJ Jefferson pass intercepted Shawn Preston Jr. return for 3 yds to the MSST 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:0566% → 68%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
34.0%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MSST 34Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 7
OWN 34
-4
32.6%
Mike Wright sacked by Nico Davillier for a loss of 4 yards to the MSST 30Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+10
34.4%
Mike Wright pass complete to Justin Robinson for 10 yds to the MSST 40Similar
Q4 7:03
4TH & 1
OWN 40
-5
29.8%
Mississippi State Penalty, False Start (DeShawn Page) to the MSST 35Similar
Q4 6:55
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
32.1%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ARK 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:3439% → 33%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
38.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the ARK 24Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-9
37.2%
KJ Jefferson sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 9 yards to the ARK 15Similar
Q4 5:34
3RD & 19
OWN 15
0
34.6%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Jaedon WilsonSimilar
Q4 5:11
4TH & 19
OWN 15
+31
32.9%
Max Fletcher punt for 62 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 31 yds to the ARK 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:4979% → 79%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
21.3%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the ARK 45Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 9
OPP 45
-2
21.1%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for a loss of 2 yards to the ARK 47Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 11
OPP 47
-10
21.9%
Mike Wright run for a loss of 10 yards to the MSST 43Similar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 21
OWN 43
0
21.2%
Keelan Crimmins punt for 40 yds, downed at the ARK 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3831% → 25%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
31.0%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Jaedon Wilson for 3 yds to the ARK 20Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 7
OWN 20
0
30.1%
Dominique Johnson run for no gain to the ARK 20Similar
Q4 2:17
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
27.7%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Jaedon WilsonSimilar
Q4 2:11
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
25.1%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Tyrone BrodenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22MISSED FG
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:5388% → 92%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
12.0%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the ARK 17Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+4
10.4%
Mike Wright run for 4 yds to the ARK 13Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+2
9.1%
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the ARK 11Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+29
8.5%
Kyle Ferrie 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 1:0720% → 15%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
19.7%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Isaac TeSlaa for 7 yds to the ARK 27Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
20.3%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Andrew ArmstrongSimilar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
16.9%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Isaac TeSlaaSimilar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+19
14.1%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Andrew Armstrong for 19 yds to the ARK 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
18.5%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Andrew ArmstrongSimilar
Q4 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
15.8%
KJ Jefferson pass complete to Dominique Johnson for 6 yds to the MSST 48Similar
Q4 0:04
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
17.7%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Andrew ArmstrongSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
14.8%
KJ Jefferson pass incomplete to Isaac TeSlaaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-14.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:07
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the ARK 17
-13
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:45
Jo'Quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the ARK 45
-11.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com