Try the model
TENN

Tennessee 20 at Alabama 34

ALA
2023 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2023 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadTENN aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreTENN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:18 · James Burnip punt for 43 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 61Pregame prior+16.5Home team on offense−7.5Score differential−2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9Garbage-time factor−2.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:05: Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 10 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +19.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:12: Joe Milton III pass complete to McCallan Castles for 6 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK) — TENN win probability +30.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:19: Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 46 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +14.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q3 3:42: Jase McClellan run for 5 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +18.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 8:17: Will Reichard 50 yd FG GOOD — ALA win probability +11.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 7TENN made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 10:45ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:10TENN 4th & 2 at TENN 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:30ALA 4th & 4 at TENN 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:00TENN 4th & 6 at ALA 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−2.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:11TENN 4th & 8 at ALA 8, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    33.3%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:18ALA 4th & 14 at TENN 43, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    57.9%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:10TENN 4th & 11 at TENN 19, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:29TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 34, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    42.2%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:31TENN 4th & 2 at TENN 12, up 6
    Close callPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:33ALA 4th & 4 at TENN 24, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.6%−0.6
    68% to make
    Punt
    41.9%−10.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:24TENN 4th & 1 at TENN 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    44.3%−3.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:08TENN 4th & 3 at TENN 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−0.5
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:17ALA 4th & 16 at TENN 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−3.8
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.8%
    51% to make
    Punt
    69.0%−2.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:46TENN 4th & 9 at TENN 26, down 14
    Close callPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:53ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 12, up 14
    Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:00TENN 4th & 10 at ALA 14, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−1.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:33ALA 4th & 3 at ALA 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:39TENN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:05ALA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:12TENN Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:19ALA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:42ALA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:26ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TENNDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:1327% → 28%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
73.2%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 2 yds to the TENN 27Similar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
73.1%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 1 yd to the TENN 28Similar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
73.1%
Joe Milton III run for 9 yds to the TENN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
73.0%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 7 yds to the TENN 44Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+2
72.8%
Jaylen Wright run for 2 yds to the TENN 46Similar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+4
72.8%
Jaylen Wright run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
50
+11
72.6%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 11 yds to the ALA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
71.8%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 39 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4472% → 71%
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
71.7%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jase McClellan for 6 yds to the ALA 31Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
71.6%
Jalen Milroe run for 1 yd to the ALA 32Similar
Q1 11:27
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
71.2%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the ALA 34Similar
Q1 10:45
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
70.7%
James Burnip punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2929% → 30%
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
71.0%
Jaylen Wright run for 4 yds to the TENN 10Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 14
OWN 10
+5
70.9%
Jaylen Wright run for 5 yds to the TENN 15Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 9
OWN 15
+7
70.7%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 7 yds to the TENN 22Similar
Q1 9:10
4TH & 2
OWN 22
0
70.4%
Jackson Ross punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:2469% → 69%
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
69.1%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Malik Benson for 17 yds to the ALA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
69.3%
Jase McClellan run for 5 yds to the TENN 48Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+1
69.6%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the TENN 47Similar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
69.0%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Isaiah BondSimilar
Q1 7:30
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
68.6%
James Burnip punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Dee Williams at the TENN 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5FG
17 plays · 79 yds · 5:2031% → 36%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
69.2%
Jabari Small run for 6 yds to the TENN 21Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+14
68.8%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 14 yds to the TENN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
68.1%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the TENN 37Similar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
67.5%
Jabari Small run for no gain to the TENN 37Similar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+12
67.4%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 12 yds to the TENN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
66.6%
(05:21) No Huddle-Shotgun Milton III,Joe rush right for 3 yards gain to the ALA48 (Campbell,Jihaad), out of bounds PENALTY TEN Holding (Mincey,Gerald) 10 yards from TEN49 to TEN39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 20
OWN 39
+13
66.9%
Joe Milton III run for 13 yds to the ALA 48Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+12
66.0%
Dylan Sampson run for 12 yds to the ALA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
65.5%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 13 yds to the ALA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
65.1%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Dont'e Thornton Jr.Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+6
65.0%
Joe Milton III pass complete to McCallan Castles for 6 yds to the ALA 17Similar
Q1 3:12
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+12
64.8%
Dylan Sampson run for 12 yds to the ALA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
63.9%
Joe Milton III run for 1 yd to the ALA 6Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
63.6%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to McCallan CastlesSimilar
Q1 2:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
63.8%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Dylan SampsonSimilar
Q1 2:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
63.7%
Charles Campbell 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6FUMBLE
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:3761% → 61%
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
61.3%
Roydell Williams run for 4 yds to the ALA 29Similar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
61.0%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Earl Little IISimilar
Q1 1:16
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-6
60.5%
Jalen Milroe sacked by James Pearce Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the ALA 23 Jalen Milroe fumbled, recovered by TENN Omarr Norman-Lott , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7FG
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:5534% → 46%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
65.7%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 14 yds to the ALA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
65.6%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Kaleb WebbSimilar
Q1 0:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
65.5%
Joe Milton III run for 1 yd to the ALA 8Similar
Q1 0:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
65.5%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Jacob WarrenSimilar
Q1 0:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
54.5%
Charles Campbell 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:4257% → 52%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
57.0%
Jase McClellan run for 6 yds to the ALA 27Similar
Q2 14:38
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+34
56.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kendrick Law for 34 yds to the TENN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
56.8%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the TENN 36Similar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
55.3%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Roydell Williams for no gain to the TENN 36Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 7
OPP 36
-7
54.6%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Omarr Norman-Lott for a loss of 7 yards to the TENN 43Similar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 14
OPP 43
0
52.4%
James Burnip punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5450% → 50%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
49.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 3 yds to the TENN 23Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
49.7%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+4
49.8%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 4 yds to the TENN 19Similar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
49.6%
Jackson Ross punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10TD
11 plays · 59 yds · 3:5051% → 67%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
51.0%
Jalen Milroe run for no gain to the ALA 41Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+10
49.9%
Jase McClellan run for 10 yds to the TENN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
49.1%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the TENN 46Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
48.3%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to CJ DippreSimilar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+22
47.8%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 22 yds to the TENN 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
49.2%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 11 yds to the TENN 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
45.7%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the TENN 12Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+2
47.4%
Roydell Williams run for 2 yds to the TENN 10Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+10
66.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 10 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3039% → 37%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
61.0%
Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd to the TENN 24Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
61.5%
Jaylen Wright run for 3 yds to the TENN 27Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
63.3%
Joe Milton III run for 7 yds to the TENN 34Similar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
63.5%
Joe Milton III run for no gain to the TENN 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:1268% → 65%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
67.5%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Kendrick Law for 4 yds to the TENN 30Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+2
66.8%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the TENN 28Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+5
65.8%
PENALTY TEN Delay Of Game 5 yards from TEN28 to TEN23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
65.4%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the TENN 20Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
65.2%
Jalen Milroe pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 13TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 2:4938% → 75%
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
61.8%
Joe Milton III run for 11 yds to the TENN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
60.6%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 14 yds to the TENN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
59.0%
Jabari Small run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 5
50
+30
58.5%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 30 yds to the ALA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
59.6%
Jabari Small run for 4 yds to the ALA 16Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+3
59.4%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the ALA 13Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+3
60.7%
Joe Milton III run for 3 yds to the ALA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
56.0%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the ALA 8Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
56.0%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the ALA 6Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
24.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to McCallan Castles for 6 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0838% → 29%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
38.0%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Amari Niblack for 5 yds to the ALA 40Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+8
28.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 8 yds to the ALA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-14
29.2%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Gabe Jeudy-Lally for a loss of 14 yards to the ALA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3344% → 59%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
43.7%
Jase McClellan run for 29 yds to the TENN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
58.5%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 46 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3548% → 48%
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
52.2%
Jaylen Wright run for 3 yds to the TENN 7Similar
Q3 13:49
2ND & 7
OWN 7
0
52.3%
Jaylen Wright run for no gain to the TENN 7Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 7
OWN 7
+5
52.7%
Jaylen Wright run for 5 yds to the TENN 12Similar
Q3 12:31
4TH & 2
OWN 12
0
52.4%
Jackson Ross punt for 58 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:4452% → 57%
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
51.6%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to CJ Dippre for 15 yds to the ALA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
53.8%
PENALTY TEN Offside (Norman-Lott,Omarr) 5 yards from ALA45 to ALA50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 5
50
+5
54.9%
PENALTY TEN Offside (Pearce Jr.,James) 5 yards from ALA50 to TEN45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
55.0%
PENALTY ALA Illegal Snap (McLaughlin,Seth) 5 yards from TEN45 to TEN50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 15
50
+20
52.4%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 20 yds to the TENN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
55.7%
Roydell Williams run for 1 yd to the TENN 29Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+5
55.4%
Jase McClellan run for 5 yds to the TENN 24Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 4
OPP 24
0
53.3%
Jase McClellan run for no gain to the TENN 24Similar
Q3 8:33
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+42
57.2%
Will Reichard 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:0247% → 49%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
53.3%
Joe Milton III sacked by Chris Braswell for a loss of 3 yards to the TENN 22Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+16
54.0%
Joe Milton III run for 16 yds to the TENN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
50.5%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Kaleb WebbSimilar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
50.4%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Dylan Sampson for 1 yd to the TENN 39Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+8
51.0%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 8 yds to the TENN 47Similar
Q3 6:24
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
50.7%
Dylan Sampson run for no gain to the TENN 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19TD
6 plays · 47 yds · 2:3259% → 78%
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
58.7%
Jase McClellan run for 7 yds to the TENN 40Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 3
OPP 40
0
58.9%
Jalen Milroe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+22
57.5%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 22 yds to the TENN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+13
59.4%
Jalen Milroe run for 13 yds to the TENN 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
77.9%
Jase McClellan run for 5 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:2831% → 30%
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
69.4%
(03:42) No Huddle-Shotgun White,Squirrel rush right for 1 yard loss to the TEN24 (Downs,Caleb) PENALTY TEN Holding (Warren,Jacob) 10 yards from TEN25 to TEN15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+1
69.6%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 1 yd to the TENN 14Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+4
70.0%
Jaylen Wright run for 4 yds to the TENN 18Similar
Q3 1:42
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+14
71.2%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jacob Warren for 14 yds to the TENN 32Similar
Q3 1:08
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
70.3%
Jackson Ross punt for 49 yds , Kool-Aid McKinstry returns for no gain to the ALA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21FG
17 plays · 56 yds · 7:4272% → 86%
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
72.3%
Roydell Williams run for 5 yds to the ALA 17Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+3
72.0%
Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the ALA 20Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+5
70.5%
Jase McClellan run for 5 yds to the ALA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
70.8%
Jalen Milroe run for 10 yds to the ALA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
71.2%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Amari NiblackSimilar
Q4 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
70.7%
Jase McClellan run for no gain to the ALA 35Similar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+15
69.3%
Jalen Milroe run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
50
+2
74.2%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the TENN 48Similar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+11
74.2%
Jase McClellan run for 11 yds to the TENN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
74.6%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the TENN 36Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 9
OPP 36
0
74.3%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Jermaine BurtonSimilar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+10
73.3%
(10:24) No Huddle-Shotgun Milroe,Jalen pass incomplete short left to Burton,Jermaine PENALTY TEN Holding (Jeudy-Lally,Gabe) 10 yards from TEN36 to TEN26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
75.1%
Roydell Williams run for 5 yds to the TENN 21Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+2
74.8%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the TENN 23Similar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 7
OPP 23
-9
74.4%
Jalen Milroe sacked by Joshua Josephs for a loss of 9 yards to the TENN 32Similar
Q4 8:17
4TH & 16
OPP 32
+50
86.2%
Will Reichard 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22FUMBLE RETURN TD
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4219% → 8%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
80.6%
Dylan Sampson run for 4 yds to the TENN 29Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
80.4%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Dylan Sampson for 8 yds to the TENN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+24
92.1%
Jihaad Campbell 24 Yd Fumble Return (Will Reichard Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:325% → 5%
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.6%
Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd to the TENN 26Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
94.6%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
94.8%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Jacob WarrenSimilar
Q4 6:46
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
94.9%
Jackson Ross punt for 71 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:4499% → 99%
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
98.9%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the ALA 5Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+1
98.8%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the ALA 6Similar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 7
OWN 6
+6
99.0%
Jase McClellan run for 6 yds to the ALA 12Similar
Q4 3:53
4TH & 1
OWN 12
0
99.2%
James Burnip punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 25DOWNS
11 plays · 42 yds · 1:454% → 4%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
95.7%
Joe Milton III run for 11 yds to the ALA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
95.5%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
95.5%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 7 yds to the ALA 38Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+6
95.5%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Ramel Keyton for 6 yds to the ALA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+18
95.3%
Joe Milton III run for 18 yds to the ALA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
95.2%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Kaleb WebbSimilar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-5
95.2%
PENALTY TEN False Start (Davis,Dayne) 5 yards from ALA14 to ALA19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 15
OPP 19
+10
95.5%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Kaleb Webb for 10 yds to the ALA 9Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
95.4%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 5
OPP 9
-5
95.7%
PENALTY TEN False Start (Davis,Dayne) 5 yards from ALA09 to ALA14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 10
OPP 14
0
95.8%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:2299% → 99%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
99.4%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the ALA 17Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+3
99.5%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the ALA 20Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+1
99.4%
Jase McClellan run for 1 yd to the ALA 21Similar
Q4 1:33
4TH & 3
OWN 21
+5
99.4%
James Burnip punt for 47 yds , Dee Williams returns for 5 yds to the TENN 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 27END OF GAME
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:231% → 1%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
98.7%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 7 yds to the TENN 44Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+4
98.8%
Joe Milton III run for 4 yds to the TENN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
98.8%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 8 yds to the ALA 44Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 2
OPP 44
-17
98.6%
Joe Milton III sacked by Dallas Turner for a loss of 17 yards to the TENN 39Similar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 19
OWN 39
+20
98.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 20 yds to the ALA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
98.7%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jaylen Wright for 8 yds to the ALA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:12
Joe Milton III pass complete to McCallan Castles for 6 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)
-30.2
TD · Q2 7:05
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 10 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
+19.2
TD · Q3 3:42
Jase McClellan run for 5 yds for a TD (Will Reichard KICK)
+18.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com