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NMSU

New Mexico State 28 at UTEP 7

UTEP
2023 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2023 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:59 · Ethan Albertson 45 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 14Home team on offense−0.5Score differential−0.5Pregame prior−9.9Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:26: Kevin Hurley run for 1 yd for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK) — UTEP win probability +7.6 pts (now 47%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:31: Timeout UTEP, clock 01:31 — NMSU win probability +11.6 pts (now 61%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:29: Diego Pavia pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 6 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +12.2 pts (now 71%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:44: Diego Pavia run for 41 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +13.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:31: Diego Pavia pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 16 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +7.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 8 of 10NMSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 11:41UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:59NMSU 4th & 5 at UTEP 28, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.2%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    52.3%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:07UTEP 4th & 10 at UTEP 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:01NMSU 4th & 28 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−2.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:31UTEP 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00NMSU 4th & 4 at UTEP 8, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.0%−0.7
    90% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−8.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:43UTEP 4th & 18 at UTEP 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−5.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:43UTEP 4th & 1 at UTEP 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.4%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:24UTEP 4th & 4 at NMSU 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.4%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:28UTEP 4th & 4 at NMSU 44, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−0.5
    27% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:35NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 47, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:54UTEP 4th & 10 at NMSU 13, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:56NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 25, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:56UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 37, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:36UTEP 4th & 10 at UTEP 42, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NMSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 1:18NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:26UTEP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:29NMSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:44NMSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:31NMSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTEPDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 3:1939% → 40%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
38.9%
Deion Hankins run for 4 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
38.9%
Deion Hankins run for 11 yds to the UTEP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
38.9%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 4 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+2
38.9%
Deion Hankins run for 2 yds to the UTEP 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 46
-2
38.9%
Cade McConnell sacked by Nikhil Webb Walker and Izaiah Reed for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 44Similar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 6
OWN 44
0
40.0%
Joshua Sloan punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2MISSED FG
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:4260% → 59%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
39.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 9 yds to the NMSU 49Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+8
39.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 8 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
39.7%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+10
39.7%
Monte Watkins run for 10 yds to the UTEP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
39.6%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
39.6%
Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+2
39.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 2 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q1 7:59
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+45
41.0%
Ethan Albertson 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5241% → 41%
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
41.2%
Deion Hankins run for 1 yd to the UTEP 29Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+5
41.2%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Jeremiah Ballard for 5 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 4
OWN 34
-6
41.1%
Cade McConnell sacked by Buddha Peleti for a loss of 6 yards to the UTEP 28Similar
Q1 6:07
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
41.0%
Joshua Sloan punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the NMSU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 4:4958% → 64%
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
41.6%
Star Thomas run for 12 yds to the NMSU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
41.1%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
41.2%
Monte Watkins run for 3 yds to the NMSU 41Similar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
41.2%
PAVIA, Diego pass deep to the left incomplete intended for BELLAMY, Chris thrown to the TEP20. PENALTY NMS Personal Foul on CANEPA, Louie Before the snap, TEP Illegal Substitution on ARANDA, Luis Carlos , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 7
OWN 41
-1
41.2%
Diego Pavia sacked by Kanious Vaughn for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 40Similar
Q1 6:07
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+15
42.0%
UTEP Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the UTEP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
40.6%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the UTEP 44Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-5
40.7%
PAVIA, Diego pass deep up the middle complete for 34 yards to STOWERS, Eli caught at the TEP15 and advanced to the TEP10 (WESTMORELAND, Maurice). PENALTY NMS Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass enforced 5 yards from the TEP44 to the TEP49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+5
41.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Monte Watkins for 5 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+34
40.9%
Monte Watkins run for 34 yds to the UTEP 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
35.6%
Diego Pavia run for 10 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:5237% → 47%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
37.4%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 2 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
37.4%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Jeremiah Ballard for 12 yds to the UTEP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
38.0%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 5 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
38.7%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+54
38.1%
Deion Hankins run for 54 yds to the NMSU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
39.8%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 1 yd to the NMSU 1Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
47.4%
Kevin Hurley run for 1 yd for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 25 yds · 5:2557% → 56%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
43.4%
Jamoni Jones run for 2 yds to the NMSU 27Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
43.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 6 yds to the NMSU 33Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
42.9%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the NMSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
42.7%
Monte Watkins run for 5 yds to the NMSU 41Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+27
41.8%
Monte Watkins run for 27 yds to the UTEP 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-4
40.8%
Monte Watkins run for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 36Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 14
OPP 36
-7
42.0%
Diego Pavia sacked by Kanious Vaughn for a loss of 7 yards to the UTEP 43Similar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 21
OPP 43
+8
42.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 18 yds to the NMSU 25 New Mexico State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 28
50
0
43.1%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:01
4TH & 28
50
0
44.2%
Zach Haynes punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Torrance Burgess Jr. at the UTEP 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 42 yds · 5:3048% → 51%
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
48.3%
Deion Hankins run for 5 yds to the UTEP 13Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+6
47.9%
Deion Hankins run for 6 yds to the UTEP 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
48.1%
UTEP Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UTEP 14Similar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 15
OWN 14
-5
48.0%
BURGESS JR., Torrance rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the TEP19 (ROWSER, Myles). PENALTY Before the snap, TEP Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the TEP14 to the TEP9. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 20
OWN 9
+3
48.3%
Deion Hankins run for 3 yds to the UTEP 12Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 17
OWN 12
+29
47.8%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Jeremiah Ballard for 29 yds to the UTEP 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
49.7%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 4 yds to the UTEP 45Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+2
50.2%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Torrance Burgess Jr. for 2 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+3
49.4%
Deion Hankins run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 1
50
0
51.0%
Joshua Sloan punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8MISSED FG
9 plays · 72 yds · 1:3155% → 58%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
44.6%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the NMSU 23Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+12
44.7%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 12 yds to the NMSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+40
44.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 40 yds to the UTEP 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
39.4%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 11 yds to the UTEP 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
39.4%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
39.4%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+6
40.6%
Diego Pavia run for 6 yds to the UTEP 8Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+25
42.1%
Ethan Albertson 25 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 2:2455% → 71%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
44.9%
New Mexico State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Devlin Kirklin) to the NMSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
42.8%
Diego Pavia run for 18 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+32
42.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 32 yds to the UTEP 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
41.2%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 6Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
29.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 6 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:4633% → 31%
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.4%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
33.3%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Torrance Burgess Jr. for 14 yds to the UTEP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
34.6%
UTEP Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Yards) to the UTEP 29Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 20
OWN 29
+2
33.1%
Deion Hankins run for 2 yds to the UTEP 31Similar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 18
OWN 31
0
32.1%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:43
4TH & 18
OWN 31
0
31.3%
Joshua Sloan punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Brady at the NMSU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:5969% → 86%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
31.0%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMSU 19Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+10
31.6%
Monte Watkins run for 10 yds to the NMSU 29Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
29.9%
Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the NMSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
29.6%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 13 yds to the NMSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
28.1%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
28.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Kordell David for 8 yds to the UTEP 45Similar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+9
28.1%
Star Thomas run for 9 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
27.8%
Diego Pavia sacked by Praise Amaewhule for a loss of 5 yards to the UTEP 41Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 15
OPP 41
+41
14.4%
Diego Pavia run for 41 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 12DOWNS
12 plays · 28 yds · 4:2018% → 16%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.6%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
17.4%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
17.2%
MCCONNELL, Cade pass to the right incomplete intended for HANKINS, Deion thrown to the TEP25. PENALTY NMS Holding on MILLER, Mehki enforced 10 yards from the TEP25 to the TEP35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
17.9%
Deion Hankins run for 2 yds to the UTEP 37Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+6
18.2%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 6 yds to the UTEP 43Similar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
17.2%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 1 yd to the UTEP 44Similar
Q3 4:43
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+3
17.1%
Deion Hankins run for 3 yds to the UTEP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
17.6%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
17.3%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 6 yds to the NMSU 47Similar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
17.7%
Cade McConnell run for no gain to the NMSU 47Similar
Q3 2:24
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
16.3%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 3:5388% → 98%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
11.8%
Monte Watkins run for 4 yds to the UTEP 49Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-5
11.7%
PAVIA, Diego pass deep up the middle complete for 15 yards to BRADY, Jonathan caught at the TEP31 and advanced to the TEP34, End of Play. PENALTY NMS Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on PETE, Shiyazh enforced 5 yards from the TEP49 to the NMS46 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
12.0%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+15
12.1%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Eli Stowers for 15 yds to the UTEP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
10.6%
Diego Pavia run for 7 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+3
9.7%
Makhilyn Young run for 3 yds to the UTEP 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
9.7%
Diego Pavia run for 13 yds to the UTEP 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
2.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 16 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:033% → 2%
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
2.8%
Deion Hankins run for 3 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
2.8%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:31
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
2.8%
Deion Hankins run for 8 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
2.9%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Jeremiah Ballard for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:31
1ST & 10
50
0
3.0%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 10
50
-6
3.0%
Cade McConnell sacked by Buddha Peleti for a loss of 6 yards to the UTEP 44Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 16
OWN 44
+12
2.1%
Deion Hankins run for 12 yds to the NMSU 44Similar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 4
OPP 44
+1
2.3%
Deion Hankins run for 1 yd to the NMSU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5399% → 99%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
1.3%
Monte Watkins run for a loss of 5 yards to the NMSU 38Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 15
OWN 38
0
1.4%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 15
OWN 38
+14
1.4%
Star Thomas run for 14 yds to the UTEP 48Similar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 1
OPP 48
-5
1.4%
New Mexico State Penalty, Delay Of Game (PJ Johnson III) to the NMSU 47Similar
Q4 8:35
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
1.2%
Zach Haynes punt for 44 yds, downed at the UTEP 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 16DOWNS
11 plays · 78 yds · 3:412% → 1%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
1.8%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Deion Hankins for 5 yds to the UTEP 14Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+8
1.8%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Deion Hankins for 8 yds to the UTEP 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
1.9%
MCCONNELL, Cade pass deep to the right incomplete intended for AKHARAIYI, Kelly broken up by ROWSER, Myles at the NMS41. PENALTY NMS Holding on SCULARK, BJ enforced 10 yards from the TEP22 to the TEP32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
1.9%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Jeremiah Ballard for 15 yds to the UTEP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
2.0%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+40
2.0%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Torrance Burgess Jr. for 40 yds to the NMSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
2.3%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 2 yds to the NMSU 11Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+3
2.3%
Cade McConnell run for 3 yds to the NMSU 8Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 5
OPP 8
-5
2.3%
UTEP Penalty, False Start (Zuri Henry) to the NMSU 13Similar
Q4 8:35
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
2.2%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:54
4TH & 10
OPP 13
0
1.0%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:5899% → 99%
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
0.7%
Star Thomas run for 11 yds to the NMSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
0.7%
Diego Pavia run for 5 yds to the NMSU 29Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 5
OWN 29
-4
0.5%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 4 yards to the NMSU 25Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
0.6%
Diego Pavia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
0.6%
Zach Haynes punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Torrance Burgess Jr. at the UTEP 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 9 yds · 2:200% → 0%
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
0.4%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
0.4%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Zach Fryar for 4 yds to the UTEP 37Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
0.4%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 6
OWN 37
+6
0.4%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Torrance Burgess Jr. for 6 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-15
0.4%
UTEP Penalty, Personal Foul (Kelly Akharaiyi) to the UTEP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
0.4%
Cade McConnell pass complete to Mike Franklin for 5 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
0.4%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
0.4%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 5
OWN 47
-5
0.4%
UTEP Penalty, False Start (Andrew Meyer) to the UTEP 42Similar
Q4 0:36
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
0.3%
Cade McConnell pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
0.3%
[SG] Kneel down by PAVIA, Diego at TEP44 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:44
Diego Pavia run for 41 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)
-13.4
TD · Q3 12:29
Diego Pavia pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 6 yds for a TD (Ethan Albertson KICK)
-12.2
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:31
Timeout UTEP, clock 01:31
-11.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com