2023 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2023 · Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
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Win probability · SHSU
modelSHSU aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey playSHSU scoreFIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:39 · Daton Montiel punt for 40 yds , Emon Allen returns for no gain to the SHSU 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 2:39: Kejon Owens run for 13 yds for a TD (Chase Gabriel KICK) — FIU win probability +23.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:44: Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 20 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK) — SHSU win probability +23.1 pts (now 64%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 1:24: Colby Sessums 32 yd FG GOOD — SHSU win probability +27.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SHSU has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:05: Chase Gabriel 36 yd FG GOOD — FIU win probability +37.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Keyone Jenkins run for no gain to the SHSU 1 — FIU win probability +42.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SHSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8FIU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
- Q1 12:00FIU 4th & 3 at SHSU 48, tiedClose callPunted · 34.3% before the snapGo for it34.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.3%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:24FIU 4th & 11 at SHSU 11, tiedClose callWent for it · 35.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call34.7%−0.322% to convertField goal35.0%87% to makePunt33.7%−1.3average punt
- Q1 5:30SHSU 4th & 7 at SHSU 5, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snapGo for it64.0%−0.433% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.4%average punt
- Q1 1:44FIU 4th & 6 at SHSU 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.6% before the snapGo for it36.3%−0.131% to convertField goalTheir call36.4%91% to makePunt34.3%−2.1average punt
- Q2 14:50SHSU 4th & 11 at FIU 44, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snapGo for it61.9%−0.327% to convertField goal61.7%−0.627% to makePuntTheir call62.2%average punt
- Q2 13:22FIU 4th & 6 at FIU 24, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snapGo for it37.3%−0.538% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.7%average punt
- Q2 10:20SHSU 4th & 15 at FIU 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.3% before the snapGo for it59.1%−1.117% to convertField goalTheir call60.3%56% to makePunt59.4%−0.9average punt
- Q2 1:29FIU 4th & 6 at FIU 29, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snapGo for it41.7%−0.739% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.4%average punt
- Q2 0:34SHSU 4th & 9 at FIU 38, down 3Close callWent for it · 56.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call56.2%−0.632% to convertField goal56.8%38% to makePunt55.3%−1.4average punt
- Q3 10:42SHSU 4th & 4 at FIU 48, tiedClose callPunted · 62.7% before the snapGo for it63.5%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call62.9%−0.6average punt
- Q3 10:42FIU 4th & 1 at FIU 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call43.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt40.1%−2.9average punt
- Q3 6:43FIU 4th & 2 at SHSU 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call44.1%57% to convertField goal40.2%−3.932% to makePunt41.0%−3.1average punt
- Q4 9:39FIU 4th & 21 at FIU 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snapGo for it33.1%−9.89% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.9%average punt
- Q4 7:33SHSU 4th & 17 at SHSU 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 56.8% before the snapGo for it52.3%−6.414% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.7%average punt
- Q4 6:11FIU 4th & 10 at FIU 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snapGo for it36.3%−5.727% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.0%average punt
- Q4 4:25SHSU 4th & 6 at midfield, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 58.3% before the snapGo for it57.8%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.8%−1.0average punt
- Q4 1:24SHSU 4th & 8 at FIU 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.1% before the snapGo for it52.7%−4.231% to convertField goalTheir call56.9%83% to makePunt25.9%−31.0average punt
- Q4 1:13FIU 4th & 18 at FIU 32, down 3Close callWent for it · 19.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.6%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt10.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SHSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2FIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 5:57FIU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.5%97% to makeGo for two51.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:57SHSU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.8%97% to makeGo for two55.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:39FIU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.8%97% to makeGo for two59.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 12:44SHSU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.6%97% to makeGo for two54.4%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFIUDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 2:5135% → 35%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
65.1%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 1 yd to the FIU 36Similar
Q1 14:51
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
65.1%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 1 yd to the FIU 37Similar
Q1 14:51
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+8
65.1%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 8 yds to the FIU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
64.8%
Daton Montiel punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jordan Yates at the SHSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 2INT7 plays · 55 yds · 3:3965% → 65%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
65.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Jordan Yates for 13 yds to the SHSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
65.2%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 8 yds to the FIU 49Similar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
65.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 13 yds to the FIU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 3DOWNS4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5736% → 36%
Q1 8:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+1
63.6%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 1 yd to the SHSU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5464% → 63%
FIUDrive 5FG9 plays · 29 yds · 3:4637% → 38%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
62.9%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dean Patterson for 6 yds to the SHSU 29Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+8
62.8%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Eric Rivers for 8 yds to the SHSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+6
62.8%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Eric Rivers for 6 yds to the SHSU 12Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
62.8%
Keyone Jenkins sacked by Issiah Nixon for a loss of 4 yards to the SHSU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 1:4962% → 61%
FIUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2839% → 38%
SHSUDrive 8MISSED FG6 plays · 30 yds · 3:0263% → 60%
FIUDrive 9TD10 plays · 70 yds · 4:2340% → 54%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
59.7%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 11 yds to the FIU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
58.3%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kejon Owens for 5 yds to the SHSU 39Similar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
57.6%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 5 yds to the SHSU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 10TD10 plays · 77 yds · 3:1847% → 61%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
47.2%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for 8 yds to the SHSU 31Similar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
47.9%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for 19 yds to the FIU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
49.5%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 12 yds to the FIU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
50.6%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to John Gentry for 11 yds to the FIU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
61.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Elijah Sohn for 10 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 0:2345% → 44%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 12FG12 plays · 47 yds · 1:2958% → 65%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
57.5%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 21 yds to the FIU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
58.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to John Gentry for 2 yds to the FIU 37Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+1
57.9%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 1 yd to the FIU 38Similar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 9
OPP 38
+10
55.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for 10 yds to the FIU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+10
60.1%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 10 yds to the FIU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
60.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Shoemaker,Keegan pass incomplete short to Phillips,Malik PENALTY FIU Offside (Shannon,Steven) 5 yards from FIU18 to FIU13. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 13PUNT9 plays · 28 yds · 4:1362% → 62%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
62.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 10 yds to the SHSU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+7
63.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 7 yds to the SHSU 43Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+7
63.6%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Simeon Evans for 7 yds to the FIU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 14TD17 plays · 80 yds · 8:0342% → 71%
Q3 10:42
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+4
55.5%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dean Patterson for 4 yds to the FIU 39Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+10
58.5%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Eric Rivers for 10 yds to the FIU 49Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-5
54.9%
PENALTY FIU False Start (Bock II,John) 5 yards from SHSU49 to FIU46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+13
57.2%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 13 yds to the SHSU 41Similar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
52.6%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dean Patterson for 6 yds to the SHSU 32Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+5
50.6%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 5 yds to the SHSU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+8
51.1%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Eric Rivers for 8 yds to the SHSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 15TD11 plays · 71 yds · 4:4538% → 64%
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
37.8%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Al'vonte Woodard for 8 yds to the SHSU 37Similar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
39.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Elijah Sohn for 10 yds to the SHSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+10
37.5%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 10 yds to the FIU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
40.6%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Adrian Murdaugh for 5 yds to the FIU 21Similar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+20
63.7%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 20 yds for a TD (Colby Sessums KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 16PUNT10 plays · 14 yds · 3:0146% → 43%
Q4 12:40
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+9
55.8%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 9 yds to the FIU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
52.3%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Eric Rivers for 13 yds to the FIU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 6
OPP 47
-10
49.1%
Shotgun Owens,Kejon rush middle for 8 yards gain to the SHSU39 (Adkins,Donovan) PENALTY FIU Holding (Lee,JaDarious) 10 yards from SHSU47 to FIU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 16
OWN 43
-5
54.6%
Keyone Jenkins sacked by Jevon Leon for a loss of 5 yards to the FIU 38Similar
Q4 9:39
4TH & 21
OWN 38
0
56.8%
Daton Montiel punt for 40 yds , Emon Allen returns for no gain to the SHSU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SHSUDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 27 yds · 2:0659% → 56%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+18
58.5%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Malik Phillips for 18 yds to the SHSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 25
OWN 40
+8
57.5%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to John Gentry for 8 yds to the SHSU 48Similar
Q4 7:33
4TH & 17
OWN 48
0
56.0%
Jadon Cardell punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Dean Patterson at the FIU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2247% → 44%
SHSUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4663% → 58%
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
63.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Adrian Murdaugh for 2 yds to the SHSU 48Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+1
63.0%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to Noah Smith for 1 yd to the SHSU 47Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+3
59.3%
Keegan Shoemaker pass complete to John Gentry for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 20FUMBLE6 plays · 14 yds · 2:3348% → 48%
SHSUDrive 21FG7 plays · 2 yds · 0:2866% → 90%
FIUDrive 22FG13 plays · 42 yds · 1:1423% → 61%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
77.3%
Keyone Jenkins sacked by Chris Scott for a loss of 1 yard to the FIU 39Similar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 11
OWN 39
-7
87.0%
Keyone Jenkins sacked by Issiah Nixon for a loss of 7 yards to the FIU 32Similar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
80.7%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 10 yds to the SHSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
78.2%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Eric Rivers for 5 yds to the SHSU 30Similar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+12
79.1%
Keyone Jenkins pass complete to Dean Patterson for 12 yds to the SHSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 24TD1 play · 25 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Keyone Jenkins run for no gain to the SHSU 1
-42.4
FG · Q4 0:05
Chase Gabriel 36 yd FG GOOD
-37.4
FG · Q4 1:24
Colby Sessums 32 yd FG GOOD
+27.1