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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 35 at Liberty 42

LIB
2023 · Week 8 · Oct 17, 2023 · Williams Stadium (VA)
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Win probability · LIB
modelLIB aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playLIB scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:16 · Miles Tillman punt for 32 yds, downed at the LIB 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 42Pregame prior+27.1Home team on offense−1.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score differential−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:20: Zack Dobson run for 2 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +13.4 pts (now 30%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:43: Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 36 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +14.5 pts (now 48%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:10: Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Zack Dobson for 72 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +20.8 pts (now 55%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:50: Quinton Cooley run for 10 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +18.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:37: Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 37 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK) — LIB win probability +24.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LIB made the numbers' call on 1 of 4MTSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q2 13:16MTSU 4th & 15 at MTSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  2. Q2 5:25MTSU 4th & 10 at LIB 36, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.9%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    17.0%
    42% to make
    Punt
    16.6%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 3:20LIB 4th & 5 at MTSU 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    82.3%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q3 13:42MTSU 4th & 9 at MTSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−1.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  5. Q4 13:47MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−1.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  6. Q4 11:29LIB 4th & 3 at LIB 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q4 7:42MTSU 4th & 15 at MTSU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−2.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  8. Q4 5:39LIB 4th & 1 at LIB 11, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 3:02LIB 4th & 8 at LIB 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:04MTSU 4th & 8 at LIB 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    6.3%−3.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−4.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LIB made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MTSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:36MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:37LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:43MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:49LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:29LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:20MTSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:43MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:41LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 6:10MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 2:50LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 14:37LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
85.4%
Kaidon Salter pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2TD
3 plays · 22 yds · 1:0415% → 15%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
85.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 6 yds to the LIB 16Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+13
85.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 13 yds to the LIB 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
84.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ Riles for 3 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:5985% → 84%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
84.8%
Quinton Cooley run for 9 yds to the LIB 34Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
84.9%
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the LIB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
84.9%
Aaron Bedgood run for 17 yds to the MTSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
84.9%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 9 yds to the MTSU 38Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+9
84.9%
Quinton Cooley run for 9 yds to the MTSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
85.0%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (7 Yards) to the MTSU 22Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+9
85.0%
Kaidon Salter run for 9 yds to the MTSU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
85.0%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the MTSU 10Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+5
85.0%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the MTSU 5Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+5
83.9%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5417% → 20%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
83.5%
VATTIATO, Nicholas pass deep to the left incomplete intended for OLSON, Justin thrown to the LIB43. PENALTY LIB Pass Interference on SINGLETON, Kobe enforced 15 yards to the MTS40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
83.2%
Liberty Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kobe Singleton) to the LIB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
83.1%
Jaiden Credle run for 2 yds to the LIB 43Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+9
83.1%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 9 yds to the LIB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
83.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 13 yds to the LIB 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
82.9%
Jaiden Credle run for 1 yd to the LIB 20Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+20
80.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 20 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5TD
13 plays · 97 yds · 5:4981% → 82%
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
80.5%
Billy Lucas run for 3 yds to the LIB 6Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+10
80.3%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 10 yds to the LIB 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
80.5%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for no gain to the LIB 16Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+12
80.4%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Kylen Austin for 12 yds to the LIB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
80.6%
Quinton Cooley run for 9 yds to the LIB 37Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+10
80.9%
Quinton Cooley run for 10 yds to the LIB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
81.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 8 yds to the MTSU 45Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+17
81.2%
James Jointer Jr. run for 17 yds to the MTSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
81.4%
James Jointer Jr. run for 4 yds to the MTSU 24Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
81.4%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+8
81.2%
Kaidon Salter run for 8 yds to the MTSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
81.4%
Kaidon Salter run for 7 yds to the MTSU 9Similar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+9
82.1%
Quinton Cooley run for 9 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 1:4420% → 20%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
79.8%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds to the MTSU 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+11
79.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 11 yds to the MTSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
79.1%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 9 yds to the MTSU 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+1
78.7%
Jaiden Credle run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
78.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
50
-5
78.9%
VATTIATO, Nicholas pass up the middle complete for 17 yards to METCALF, Elijah caught at the LIB44 and advanced to the LIB33 (REESE, Quinton;JIMMERSON, Jaylon). PENALTY MTS Illegal Touch-Pass on METCALF, Elijah enforced 5 yards from the MTS50 to the MTS45, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 45
0
79.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:16
4TH & 15
OWN 45
0
79.6%
Miles Tillman punt for 32 yds, downed at the LIB 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 4:4780% → 86%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
80.3%
Quinton Cooley run for 7 yds to the LIB 30Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+11
80.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 11 yds to the LIB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
81.1%
SALTER, Kaidon pass to the right incomplete intended for HANSHAW, Bentley thrown to the MTS45. PENALTY LIB Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on TUCKER, Jack enforced 5 yards from the LIB41 to the LIB36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+35
80.4%
Kaidon Salter run for 35 yds to the MTSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
81.7%
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the MTSU 27Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+5
81.7%
Middle Tennessee Penalty, Offsides (Jordan Branch) to the MTSU 22Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 3
OPP 22
0
81.7%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+3
81.3%
Billy Lucas run for 3 yds to the MTSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
81.7%
Billy Lucas run for 4 yds to the MTSU 15Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+14
81.7%
Kaidon Salter run for 14 yds to the MTSU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.2%
Billy Lucas run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8DOWNS
7 plays · 46 yds · 3:0416% → 16%
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
84.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 24Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
84.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 7 yds to the MTSU 31Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+33
84.2%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 33 yds to the LIB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
82.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+1
82.9%
Jaiden Credle run for 1 yd to the LIB 35Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 9
OPP 35
-1
83.0%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Tyren Dupree for a loss of 1 yard to the LIB 36Similar
Q2 5:25
4TH & 10
OPP 36
+7
84.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 7 yds to the LIB 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:0586% → 86%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
86.3%
Aaron Bedgood run for 3 yds to the LIB 32Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+22
86.1%
Kaidon Salter run for 22 yds to the MTSU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
87.3%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the MTSU 41Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
87.2%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
86.8%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:20
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
86.2%
Max Morgan punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 3:0015% → 30%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
85.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 6 yds to the MTSU 26Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+10
84.8%
Terry Wilkins run for 10 yds to the MTSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
84.6%
Terry Wilkins run for 2 yds to the MTSU 38Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-10
84.4%
QB Keeper VATTIATO, Nicholas rush to the left for a gain of 11 yards to the MTS49 (DUPREE, Tyren), out of bounds. PENALTY MTS Holding on PORCHER, Sterling enforced 10 yards from the MTS38 to the MTS28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 18
OWN 28
+16
85.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 16 yds to the MTSU 44Similar
Q2 1:36
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
84.6%
Terry Wilkins run for 3 yds to the MTSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+26
84.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 26 yds to the LIB 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
82.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Terry Wilkins for no gain to the LIB 27Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+6
82.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 6 yds to the LIB 21Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+10
83.9%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 10 yds to the LIB 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
83.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 9 yds to the LIB 2Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
69.6%
Zack Dobson run for 2 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.2%
[NHSG] Kneel down by SALTER, Kaidon at LIB24 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1828% → 26%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
71.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
71.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Jaiden Credle for 2 yds to the MTSU 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
72.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:42
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
72.8%
Trey Turk punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Brylan Green at the LIB 35Similar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
74.4%
SALTER, Kaidon pass short to the left incomplete intended for DANIELS, CJ broken up by THOMAS, Jakobe at the LIB39. PENALTY MTS Pass Interference on THOMAS, Jakobe enforced at the spot of the foul for 5 yards to the LIB40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:3876% → 76%
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
75.6%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Aaron Bedgood for 7 yds to the LIB 47 Middle Tennessee Penalty, personal foul (Yards) to the LIB 47Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
76.1%
Quinton Cooley run for no gain to the LIB 47 Quinton Cooley fumbled, recovered by MTSU Devyn CurtisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14TD
2 plays · 47 yds · 0:2133% → 48%
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
66.9%
Jaiden Credle run for 11 yds to the LIB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
52.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 36 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 15TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 5:5657% → 74%
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
57.3%
Billy Lucas run for 8 yds to the LIB 31Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+5
59.1%
Kaidon Salter run for 5 yds to the LIB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
58.4%
Kaidon Salter run for 2 yds to the LIB 38Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-5
58.8%
SALTER, Kaidon pass deep to the right complete for 51 yards to SIBLEY, Treon caught at the MTS22 and advanced to the MTS11 (MCDONALD, De'Arre). PENALTY LIB Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on GRAHAM, Jonathan enforced 5 yards from the LIB38 to the LIB33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+12
57.0%
Kaidon Salter run for 12 yds to the LIB 45Similar
Q3 12:37
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-10
59.9%
Liberty Penalty, Offensive Holding (Noah Frith) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
50
+7
61.0%
James Jointer Jr. run for 7 yds to the MTSU 43Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+7
61.3%
James Jointer Jr. run for 7 yds to the MTSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
61.4%
Kaidon Salter run for 10 yds to the MTSU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
62.6%
James Jointer Jr. run for 8 yds to the MTSU 18Similar
Q3 12:37
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+2
62.6%
James Jointer Jr. run for 2 yds to the MTSU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-10
62.6%
Liberty Penalty, Illegal Block (Noah Frith) to the MTSU 23Similar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 17
OPP 23
+23
74.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Bentley Hanshaw for 23 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:3134% → 55%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
66.2%
Zack Dobson run for 3 yds to the MTSU 28Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+72
45.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Zack Dobson for 72 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 17TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 3:1248% → 71%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
48.0%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 7 yds to the LIB 46Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+6
49.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Noah Frith for 6 yds to the MTSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
50.8%
Aaron Bedgood run for 12 yds to the MTSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
50.9%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the MTSU 31Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+7
52.5%
Kaidon Salter run for 7 yds to the MTSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
52.5%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+14
52.4%
Kaidon Salter run for 14 yds to the MTSU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
70.6%
Quinton Cooley run for 10 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18FUMBLE
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:5836% → 38%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
63.9%
Terry Wilkins run for 6 yds to the MTSU 31Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
62.1%
Terry Wilkins run for 2 yds to the MTSU 33Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
63.5%
Nicholas Vattiato run for 3 yds to the MTSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
62.3%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+22
61.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Holden Willis for 22 yds Holden Willis fumbled, recovered by LIB Kobe SingletonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 19TD
4 plays · 58 yds · 1:1568% → 88%
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
67.7%
Kaidon Salter run for a loss of 1 yard to the LIB 41Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 41
-3
65.7%
Billy Lucas run for a loss of 3 yards to the LIB 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 38
+25
63.0%
Kaidon Salter run for 10 yds to the MTSU 48 for a 1ST down Middle Tennessee Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jakobe Thomas) to the MTSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
87.8%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 37 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:5019% → 16%
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
80.8%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Zack Dobson for 10 yds to the MTSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
79.9%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
80.4%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:37
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
81.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:47
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
83.6%
Miles Tillman punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:1886% → 84%
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
85.7%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 10 yds to the LIB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
85.9%
Quinton Cooley run for 3 yds to the LIB 33Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+4
85.9%
Kaidon Salter run for 4 yds to the LIB 37Similar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
85.6%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:29
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
84.4%
Max Morgan punt for 46 yds, downed at the MTSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:4720% → 13%
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
80.3%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds to the MTSU 20Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+5
80.6%
VATTIATO, Nicholas pass deep to the right incomplete intended for METCALF, Elijah thrown to the LIB36. PENALTY LIB Offsides on HARDY, Jay enforced 5 yards from the MTS20 to the MTS25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+3
79.6%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds to the MTSU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
79.6%
Jaiden Credle run for 6 yds to the MTSU 34Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+15
78.4%
VATTIATO, Nicholas pass deep to the right incomplete intended for ENGLAND-CHISOLM, DJ thrown to the LIB32. PENALTY LIB Pass Interference on HODGE, Preston enforced 15 yards to the MTS49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
77.0%
Nicholas Vattiato run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTSU 45Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 14
OWN 45
0
80.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 14
OWN 45
-1
80.7%
Nicholas Vattiato sacked by Kendy Charles and TJ Bush for a loss of 1 yard to the MTSU 44Similar
Q4 7:42
4TH & 15
OWN 44
0
86.6%
Trey Turk punt for 54 yds, downed at the LIB 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0393% → 92%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
92.5%
Kaidon Salter run for 2 yds to the LIB 4Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+5
92.6%
Quinton Cooley run for 5 yds to the LIB 9Similar
Q4 7:42
3RD & 3
OWN 9
+2
92.1%
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the LIB 11Similar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 1
OWN 11
0
92.4%
Max Morgan punt for 12 yds, downed at the LIB 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 24INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:2218% → 18%
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
81.6%
Terry Wilkins run for 2 yds to the LIB 21Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
81.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 2:1595% → 97%
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
94.8%
Quinton Cooley run for 14 yds to the LIB 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
94.9%
Quinton Cooley run for 2 yds to the LIB 36Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
95.0%
Quinton Cooley run for no gain to the LIB 36Similar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
94.8%
Kaidon Salter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:02
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
96.6%
Max Morgan punt for 26 yds, downed at the MTSU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 26DOWNS
7 plays · 28 yds · 1:5814% → 14%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
86.5%
Jaiden Credle run for 4 yds to the MTSU 42Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+7
86.0%
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Justin Olson for 7 yds to the MTSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
85.3%
Jaiden Credle run for 13 yds to the LIB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
84.6%
Jaiden Credle run for 2 yds to the LIB 36Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
84.7%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:02
3RD & 8
OPP 36
0
85.5%
Nicholas Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
85.6%
Nicholas Vattiato pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 27END OF GAME
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:5698% → 99%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
98.4%
Quinton Cooley run for 7 yds to the LIB 41Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+4
98.5%
Quinton Cooley run for 4 yds to the LIB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
98.5%
[NHSG] Kneel down by SALTER, Kaidon at LIB44 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 11
OWN 44
0
98.5%
[NHSG] Kneel down by SALTER, Kaidon at LIB43 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 43
0
98.5%
[NHSG] Kneel down by SALTER, Kaidon at LIB42 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:37
Kaidon Salter pass complete to CJ Daniels for 37 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)
+24.9
TD · Q3 6:10
Nicholas Vattiato pass complete to Zack Dobson for 72 yds for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)
-20.8
TD · Q3 2:50
Quinton Cooley run for 10 yds for a TD (Nick Brown KICK)
+18.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com