2023 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023 · FirstBank Stadium
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Win probability · VAN
modelVAN aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playVAN scoreUGA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:27 · Matthew Hayball punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Mews at the UGA 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:12: Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 4 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +3.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- FG · Q3 6:22: Peyton Woodring 44 yd FG GOOD — UGA win probability +1.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:57: Ken Seals pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 3 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK) — VAN win probability +7.4 pts (now 10%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:14: Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — VAN win probability +9.3 pts (now 13%) (top driver: VAN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:13: Daijun Edwards run for 1 yd for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +5.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
VAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UGA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 8:38VAN 4th & 7 at UGA 29, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.2% before the snapGo for it5.2%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call5.2%58% to makePunt4.9%−0.3average punt
- Q1 2:26VAN 4th & 4 at VAN 44, tiedClose callPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it6.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 11:27VAN 4th & 12 at VAN 18, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snapGo for it6.5%−0.422% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.9%average punt
- Q2 5:06UGA 4th & 2 at VAN 17, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.6%56% to convertField goal91.3%−0.480% to makePunt89.5%−2.1average punt
- Q2 3:40UGA 4th & 7 at VAN 12, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.1% before the snapGo for it90.7%−0.233% to convertField goalTheir call90.9%86% to makePunt88.7%−2.2average punt
- Q3 6:22UGA 4th & 18 at VAN 26, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.5% before the snapGo for it93.6%−1.012% to convertField goalTheir call94.5%64% to makePunt92.3%−2.2average punt
- Q3 6:22VAN 4th & 8 at UGA 25, down 20Close callWent for it · 3.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.9%−0.133% to convertField goal4.0%66% to makePunt1.3%−2.7average punt
- Q4 9:05UGA 4th & 3 at VAN 12, up 13Close callKicked a field goal · 94.9% before the snapGo for it95.0%50% to convertField goalTheir call94.5%−0.586% to makePunt90.3%−4.7average punt
- Q4 7:01VAN 4th & 7 at VAN 28, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snapGo for it4.1%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.2%average punt
- Q4 2:27VAN 4th & 5 at VAN 30, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UGA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 12:07VAN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.1%97% to makeGo for two4.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:42UGA Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.2%97% to makeGo for two94.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:42UGA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.1%97% to makeGo for two93.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:12UGA Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.5%97% to makeGo for two94.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:57VAN Touchdown, down 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.2%97% to makeGo for two7.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:14VAN Touchdown, down 10 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick9.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call9.1%−0.845% to convert
- Q4 3:13UGA Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.5%97% to makeGo for two97.4%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartVANDrive 1TD5 plays · 75 yds · 2:532% → 3%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
2.2%
Ken Seals pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 5 yds to the VAN 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
2.2%
Ken Seals pass complete to Quincy Skinner Jr. for 8 yds to the VAN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
2.2%
Ken Seals pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 14 yds to the UGA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+49
2.8%
Ken Seals pass complete to London Humphreys for 49 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2FUMBLE4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4597% → 97%
VANDrive 3MISSED FG4 plays · 3 yds · 1:443% → 4%
UGADrive 4TD8 plays · 71 yds · 2:5696% → 96%
VANDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 3:164% → 5%
UGADrive 6TD7 plays · 77 yds · 3:4495% → 95%
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+31
5.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 31 yds to the VAN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+6
4.8%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 6 yds to the VAN 38Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+13
5.5%
Carson Beck pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 13 yds to the VAN 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
5.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Rara Thomas for 15 yds to the VAN 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 7PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 2:085% → 5%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
5.1%
Ken Seals sacked by Smael Mondon Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the VAN 14Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 16
OWN 14
+3
5.1%
Ken Seals pass complete to Junior Sherrill for 3 yds to the VAN 17Similar
Q2 11:27
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
5.4%
Matthew Hayball punt for 46 yds , returns for no gain to the UGA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8FG18 plays · 55 yds · 7:4795% → 94%
Q2 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+17
5.5%
Kendall Milton run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+8
5.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to Ladd McConkey for 8 yds to the VAN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 16
OPP 31
+7
5.2%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 7 yds to the VAN 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 9INT6 plays · 22 yds · 3:036% → 7%
Q2 3:40
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+18
6.2%
Ken Seals pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 18 yds to the VAN 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10TD6 plays · 55 yds · 0:2593% → 97%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+20
6.7%
Carson Beck pass complete to Oscar Delp for 20 yds to the VAN 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+30
6.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 30 yds to the VAN 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
2.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 4 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 11END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:005% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12FG19 plays · 60 yds · 8:3096% → 98%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
4.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for a loss of 1 yard to the UGA 13Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+11
4.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Rara Thomas for 11 yds to the UGA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+8
4.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint for 8 yds to the UGA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+10
4.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dillon Bell for 10 yds to the VAN 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+6
3.9%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 6 yds to the VAN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 10
OPP 18
-8
4.0%
Carson Beck sacked by Nate Clifton for a loss of 8 yards to the VAN 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 13TD16 plays · 75 yds · 6:253% → 10%
Q3 6:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+20
3.1%
Ken Seals pass complete to Jayden McGowan for 20 yds to the VAN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
3.4%
Ken Seals pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 5 yds to the UGA 47Similar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+10
3.5%
SEALS, Ken pass short to the left incomplete intended for MCGOWAN, Jayden thrown to the UGA45; QB hurried by WALKER, Jalon. PENALTY UGA Holding on STARKS, Malaki enforced 10 yards from the UGA47 to the UGA37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-5
3.9%
Vanderbilt Penalty, Illegal Snap on HERNANDEZ, Julian enforced (Julian Hernandez) to the UGA 38Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+11
3.5%
Ken Seals pass complete to Sedrick Alexander for 11 yds to the UGA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
3.9%
Ken Seals pass complete to London Humphreys for 2 yds to the UGA 25Similar
Q3 6:22
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+24
3.4%
Ken Seals pass complete to Will Sheppard for 24 yds to the UGA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
10.3%
Ken Seals pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 3 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14FG13 plays · 66 yds · 5:4594% → 96%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
6.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 10 yds to the UGA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+5
5.3%
Vanderbilt Penalty, False Start PRAN, Sedrick enforced (5 Yards) to the VAN 43Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+12
5.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Oscar Delp for 12 yds to the VAN 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+9
5.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 9 yds to the VAN 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 2:044% → 4%
UGADrive 16INT2 plays · -3 yds · 0:4496% → 97%
VANDrive 17TD1 play · 1 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q4 6:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
12.8%
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 18TD5 plays · 75 yds · 3:0191% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VANDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:462% → 2%
Q4 2:27
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
2.3%
Matthew Hayball punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Mekhi Mews at the UGA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 20END OF GAME4 plays · 64 yds · 2:2798% → 98%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
1.7%
[SG] Kneel down by BECK, Carson at VAN12 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:14
Sedrick Alexander run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+9.3
TD · Q4 14:57
Ken Seals pass complete to Richie Hoskins for 3 yds for a TD (Jacob Borcila KICK)
+7.4
TD · Q4 3:13
Daijun Edwards run for 1 yd for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
-5.3