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TA&M

Texas A&M 13 at Tennessee 20

TENN
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreTA&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGFGEnd of GameFG—TENN 55.7%Randy Bond 41 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 7 · Q2 10:48
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Q2 10:48 · Randy Bond 41 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+22.0+11.00−11.0−22.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 54Pregame prior+5.1Home team on offense−1.8Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:44: Joe Milton III pass complete to Jacob Warren for 7 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK) — TENN win probability +5.7 pts (now 60%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. PUNT · Q3 6:47: Nik Constantinou punt for 38 yds , Dee Williams punt return for 39 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK) — TENN win probability +19.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 3:48: Charles Campbell 31 yd FG GOOD — TENN win probability +18.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:48: Josh Turbyville kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — TENN win probability +18.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 2:31: Charles Campbell 24 yd FG GOOD — TENN win probability +4.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 6 of 8TA&M made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 3:54TA&M 4th & 14 at TA&M 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:44TENN 4th & 4 at TENN 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:51TENN 4th & 2 at TA&M 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    56.0%−0.3
    79% to make
    Punt
    54.1%−2.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:48TA&M 4th & 16 at TENN 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−1.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    37.5%−3.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:08TA&M 4th & 1 at TENN 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    44.1%−2.8
    40% to make
    Punt
    43.8%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:45TENN 4th & 22 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−1.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:47TENN 4th & 3 at TA&M 33, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.8%−1.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    53.9%−2.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:44TENN 4th & 6 at TA&M 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    52.5%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    45.5%−7.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:53TENN 4th & 11 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−1.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:47TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−5.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:44TA&M 4th & 15 at TA&M 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:52TA&M 4th & 3 at TA&M 43, down 4
    Close callPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:15TA&M 4th & 6 at TENN 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    25.7%−9.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:48TENN 4th & 6 at TA&M 14, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    38.7%−25.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:34TA&M 4th & 5 at TENN 32, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.1%−0.7
    51% to make
    Punt
    29.0%−3.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:31TENN 4th & 6 at TA&M 6, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    69.4%−14.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:22TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.4%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.9%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 1:44TENN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5746% → 46%
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
53.7%
Le'Veon Moss run for 1 yd to the TA&M 19Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 9
OWN 19
0
53.8%
pass incomplete to Evan StewartSimilar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 9
OWN 19
0
54.1%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Evan Stewart, broken up by Gabe Jeudy-LallySimilar
Q1 4:51
4TH & 9
OWN 19
-5
54.4%
Texas A&M Penalty, false start (Earnest Crownover) to the TA&M 14Similar
Q1 3:54
4TH & 14
OWN 14
0
54.1%
Nik Constantinou punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:1658% → 57%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.6%
pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
57.6%
Jaylen Wright run for 7 yds to the TENN 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+10
57.6%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 10 yds to the TENN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
57.6%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 2 yds to the TENN 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
57.6%
pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+5
57.3%
Texas A&M Penalty, off-side (Walter Nolen) to the TENN 49Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 3
OWN 49
-1
57.4%
Jaylen Wright run for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 48Similar
Q1 12:44
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
56.9%
Jackson Ross punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 4:1543% → 46%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
56.9%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Max Wright for a 1ST down Tennessee Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jaylen McCollough) to the TA&M 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
56.8%
Tennessee Penalty, off-side (Elijah Herring) to the TA&M 40Similar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 5
OWN 40
+2
56.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Max Wright for 2 yds to the TA&M 42Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+19
56.7%
Le'Veon Moss run for 19 yds to the TENN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
56.7%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Evan Stewart, broken up by Gabe Jeudy-LallySimilar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
56.7%
Max Johnson run for 6 yds to the TENN 33Similar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+29
56.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Noah Thomas for 29 yds to the TENN 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
56.6%
Le'Veon Moss run for 2 yds to the TENN 2Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
54.5%
Max Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 4DOWNS
12 plays · 57 yds · 3:3855% → 55%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
55.3%
Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd to the TENN 26Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
55.3%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 4 yds to the TENN 30Similar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
55.2%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 6 yds to the TENN 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
55.5%
Jaylen Wright run for 15 yds to the TA&M 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
55.7%
pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+23
55.6%
Jaylen Wright run for 23 yds to the TA&M 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
56.1%
Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd to the TA&M 25Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
56.1%
pass incomplete to Chas NimrodSimilar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 9
OPP 25
-5
55.7%
Tennessee Penalty, false start (Gerald Mincey) to the TA&M 30Similar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 14
OPP 30
+12
55.2%
Dylan Sampson run for 12 yds to the TA&M 18Similar
Q1 4:51
4TH & 2
OPP 18
0
54.6%
pass incomplete to Dylan SampsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:1055% → 60%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
54.7%
Joe Milton III run for 2 yds to the TA&M 49Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+7
54.9%
Jabari Small run for 7 yds to the TA&M 42Similar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+15
54.9%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Ramel Keyton for a 1ST down Texas A&M Penalty, roughing passer (Shemar Turner) to the TA&M 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
55.5%
Jabari Small run for 9 yds to the TA&M 18Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 1
OPP 18
0
55.5%
Jabari Small run for 0 yds to the TA&M 18Similar
Q1 2:34
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+11
54.2%
Jabari Small run for 11 yds to the TA&M 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
59.9%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Jacob Warren for 7 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 5:5643% → 44%
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
57.3%
Rueben Owens run for 4 yds to the TA&M 29Similar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
57.0%
Rueben Owens run for 9 yds to the TA&M 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
56.6%
Max Johnson pass complete to Evan Stewart for 13 yds to the TENN 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-8
55.7%
Max Johnson sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the TA&M 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 43
+1
56.8%
Rueben Owens run for 1 yd to the TA&M 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 44
+18
57.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Noah Thomas for 18 yds to the TENN 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+20
55.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Ainias Smith for 20 yds to the TENN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
55.1%
Rueben Owens run for 2 yds to the TENN 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
55.1%
pass incomplete to Max WrightSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 16
-8
55.7%
Max Johnson sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the TENN 24Similar
Q2 10:48
4TH & 16
OPP 24
+41
55.7%
Randy Bond 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7DOWNS
5 plays · 28 yds · 2:3948% → 48%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+21
52.4%
Max Johnson pass complete to Evan Stewart for 21 yds to the TENN 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
51.0%
Le'Veon Moss run for 4 yds to the TENN 42Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+4
51.0%
Max Johnson pass complete to Max Wright for 4 yds to the TENN 38Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+1
51.0%
Le'Veon Moss run for 1 yd to the TENN 37Similar
Q2 5:08
4TH & 1
OPP 37
-2
51.9%
Max Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the TENN 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 4:2354% → 51%
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-7
54.3%
Joe Milton III sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the TENN 32Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 17
OWN 32
+15
53.0%
Jaylen Wright run for 15 yds to the TENN 47Similar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+15
55.1%
Jaylen Wright run for 15 yds to the TA&M 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-8
56.2%
Jaylen Wright run for 2 yds to the TA&M 36 Tennessee Penalty, Offensive holding (Ollie Lane) to the TA&M 46Similar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 18
OPP 46
+10
54.6%
Joe Milton III run for 10 yds to the TA&M 36Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 8
OPP 36
-3
56.2%
Dylan Sampson run for a loss of 3 yards to the TA&M 39Similar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 11
OPP 39
-10
54.2%
Tennessee Penalty, Offensive holding (Ollie Lane) to the TA&M 49Similar
Q2 5:08
3RD & 21
OPP 49
-1
53.1%
Dylan Sampson run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line Dylan Sampson fumbled, recovered by TENN Gerald Mincey , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 22
50
0
50.7%
Jackson Ross punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9MISSED FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 3:0155% → 55%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
55.4%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the TENN 26Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
55.3%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to McCallan Castles for a 1ST down Texas A&M Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Demani Richardson) to the TENN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
57.0%
Jabari Small run for 4 yds to the TENN 45Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+15
57.3%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Ramel Keyton for a 1ST down Texas A&M Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Deuce Harmon) to the TA&M 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
57.7%
Texas A&M Penalty, off-side (Walter Nolen) to the TA&M 35Similar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 5
OPP 35
-8
58.4%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the TA&M 33 Tennessee Penalty, Offensive holding (McCallan Castles) to the TA&M 43Similar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 13
OPP 43
+9
57.4%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Dylan Sampson for 9 yds to the TA&M 34Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+2
58.4%
Dylan Sampson run for 2 yds to the TA&M 32Similar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 2
OPP 32
-1
57.4%
Dylan Sampson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TA&M 33Similar
Q2 7:47
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+51
54.5%
Charles Campbell 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 10DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3055% → 52%
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
55.1%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 11 yds to the TA&M 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
56.3%
Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd to the TA&M 32Similar
Q3 13:14
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
56.2%
pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+3
54.4%
Jaylen Wright run for 3 yds to the TA&M 29Similar
Q3 11:44
4TH & 6
OPP 29
-7
52.2%
Joe Milton III sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the TA&M 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:5951% → 49%
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
50.8%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the TENN 34Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+17
50.8%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 17 yds to the TA&M 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
54.3%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the TA&M 48Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 9
OPP 48
-2
54.3%
Joe Milton III sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 11
50
0
51.0%
pass incomplete to Squirrel WhiteSimilar
Q3 8:53
4TH & 11
50
0
48.5%
Jackson Ross punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 99 yds · 2:0652% → 31%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
48.4%
Le'Veon Moss run for 1 yd to the TA&M 2Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 9
OWN 2
-1
48.8%
Le'Veon Moss run for a loss of 1 yard to the TA&M 1Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 10
OWN 1
0
50.0%
Texas A&M Penalty, delay of game (Max Johnson) to the TA&M 1Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 10
OWN 1
0
50.0%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Jake Johnson, broken up by Kamal HaddenSimilar
Q3 6:47
4TH & 10
OWN 1
+39
69.3%
Nik Constantinou punt for 38 yds , Dee Williams punt return for 39 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 3:1637% → 34%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
63.0%
Le'Veon Moss run for 7 yds to the TA&M 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-15
61.0%
Texas A&M Penalty, illegal block (Max Wright) to the TA&M 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
63.5%
pass incomplete to Moose Muhammad IIISimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+3
64.5%
Le'Veon Moss run for 3 yds to the TA&M 20Similar
Q3 11:44
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+24
65.9%
Nik Constantinou punt for 29 yds Texas A&M Penalty, illegal formation (Walter Nolen) to the TA&M 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5238% → 35%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
62.4%
pass incomplete to Le'Veon MossSimilar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
62.9%
Le'Veon Moss run for 7 yds to the TA&M 43Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
60.7%
pass incomplete to Le'Veon MossSimilar
Q3 10:52
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
64.9%
Nik Constantinou punt for 24 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15FG
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:3234% → 40%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
66.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Max Wright for 20 yds to the TA&M 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 18
OWN 37
+13
66.4%
Max Johnson pass complete to Rueben Owens for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-8
63.3%
Max Johnson run for a loss of 8 yards to the TA&M 37 Texas A&M Penalty, intentional grounding (Max Johnson) to the TA&M 37Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 5
50
+39
62.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Noah Thomas for 28 yds to the TENN 22 Tennessee Penalty, roughing holder (Arion Carter) to the TENN 11Similar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-4
60.3%
Max Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the TENN 15Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 14
OPP 15
+8
61.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 8 yds to the TENN 7Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
61.8%
pass incomplete to Evan StewartSimilar
Q3 3:15
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+24
59.6%
Randy Bond 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16INT
14 plays · 65 yds · 4:0462% → 69%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
62.4%
Dylan Sampson run for 5 yds to the TENN 24Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+3
62.6%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the TENN 27Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+3
61.5%
Dylan Sampson run for 3 yds to the TENN 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
62.8%
pass incomplete to Ramel KeytonSimilar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+11
62.4%
Joe Milton III pass complete to McCallan Castles for 11 yds to the TENN 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
65.2%
Dylan Sampson run for 5 yds to the TENN 46Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
66.2%
pass incomplete to Chas NimrodSimilar
Q3 1:46
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+13
64.6%
Joe Milton III pass complete to McCallan Castles for 13 yds to the TA&M 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
67.1%
Jaylen Wright run for 14 yds to the TA&M 27 for a 1ST down Tennessee Penalty, Offensive holding (Kaleb Webb) to the TA&M 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
67.1%
Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd to the TA&M 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+19
67.3%
Joe Milton III run for 19 yds to the TA&M 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
68.5%
Jabari Small run for 1 yd to the TA&M 16Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
68.7%
Joe Milton III pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:4664% → 85%
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
64.4%
Joe Milton III run for 14 yds to the TENN 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
68.0%
Jaylen Wright run for no gain to the TENN 47 Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
67.1%
Jaylen Wright run for 1 yd to the TENN 48Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+10
64.7%
Joe Milton III pass complete to Squirrel White for 10 yds to the TA&M 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
69.0%
Jaylen Wright run for 10 yds to the TA&M 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
70.1%
Jaylen Wright run for 14 yds to the TA&M 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-15
71.2%
Tennessee Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Javontez Spraggins) to the TA&M 33Similar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 25
OPP 33
+5
70.0%
Joe Milton III run for 5 yds to the TA&M 28Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 20
OPP 28
-2
69.0%
Jaylen Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the TA&M 30Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 22
OPP 30
+16
66.2%
Jaylen Wright run for 16 yds to the TA&M 14Similar
Q4 3:48
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+31
85.1%
Charles Campbell 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 18MISSED FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 5:2832% → 34%
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
67.6%
Le'Veon Moss run for 2 yds to the TA&M 18Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+15
68.0%
Tennessee Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Roman Harrison) to the TA&M 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
66.6%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Evan Stewart for a 1ST down Tennessee Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Gabe Jeudy-Lally) to the TA&M 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
66.2%
Le'Veon Moss run for 9 yds to the TA&M 46Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+2
62.8%
Le'Veon Moss run for 2 yds to the TA&M 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
63.4%
pass incomplete to Max WrightSimilar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
64.6%
Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+15
66.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Evan Stewart for 15 yds to the TENN 37 for a 1ST down Tennessee Penalty, Defensive holding (Yards) to the TENN 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
63.0%
Le'Veon Moss run for 3 yds to the TENN 34Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+3
60.6%
Max Johnson pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 3 yds to the TENN 31Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 4
OPP 31
-1
62.6%
Max Johnson pass complete to Evan Stewart for a loss of 1 yard to the TENN 32Similar
Q4 8:34
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+50
66.0%
Randy Bond 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2325% → 23%
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.8%
pass incomplete to Evan StewartSimilar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
75.1%
pass incomplete to Le'Veon MossSimilar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
76.7%
Max Johnson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20FG
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5489% → 93%
Q4 3:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
88.6%
Tennessee Penalty, false start (Kaleb Webb) to the TA&M 11Similar
Q4 3:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+2
88.6%
Jabari Small run for 2 yds to the TA&M 9Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
88.6%
Joe Milton III pass incomplete to Ramel Keyton, broken up by Tyreek ChappellSimilar
Q4 2:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
88.6%
Jabari Small run for 3 yds to the TA&M 6Similar
Q4 2:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
93.4%
Charles Campbell 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21INT
10 plays · 22 yds · 2:0313% → 10%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
87.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Jake Johnson for 11 yds to the TA&M 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
86.0%
Max Johnson pass complete to Evan Stewart Texas A&M Penalty, Offensive holding (Chase Bisontis) to the TA&M 24Similar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 20
OWN 24
0
87.7%
pass incomplete to Evan StewartSimilar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 20
OWN 24
+19
87.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Le'Veon Moss for 19 yds to the TA&M 43Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+2
85.0%
Le'Veon Moss run for 2 yds to the TA&M 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
84.7%
pass incomplete to Jake JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
87.3%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Ainias Smith, broken up by Tamarion McDonaldSimilar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
88.2%
pass incomplete to Moose Muhammad IIISimilar
Q4 0:22
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
89.8%
Max Johnson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
PUNT · Q3 6:47
Nik Constantinou punt for 38 yds , Dee Williams punt return for 39 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)
+19.3
FG · Q4 3:48
Charles Campbell 31 yd FG GOOD
+18.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:48
Josh Turbyville kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+18.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com